A Look At Evan Longoria, Luck & Power

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 30, 2009 11:00 PM EDT

Evan Longoria had a monster start to the season. He started out 2009 looking poised to follow in the tiny footsteps of Dustin Pedroia and follow up his Rookie of the Year season with an American League MVP trophy. In fact that fantastic start is a big reason that Longoria's slash line still looks solid at .267/.352/.499. Since injuring his hamstring in early June, Longoria has not been able to recapture the production he started the season with. Now an OPS of 1.134 is ridiculous, but Longoria has been carried an OPS of less than .750 for the better part of the past three months. His most recent skid has him batting 6^th in the lineup at least temporarily.

	OPS	wOBA
April	1.134	0.475
May	0.937	0.396
June	0.752	0.321
July	0.701	0.296
August	0.721	0.321

A fluctuation in BABIP does explain part of the downward trend, but not all.

	BABIP
April	0.410
May	0.360
June	0.280
July	0.179
August	0.292

In July his BABIP was awful. And while in June and August his BABIP was a bit "unlucky", it's not that unlucky to explain the prolonged slump.

A decreased BABIP might be partly to blame for a dip in Longoria's ISO. If the BABIP regression has taken away a few doubles that could explain some things, but not all. Since posting an ISO of .261 in May, Longo has not posted an ISO over .225 in any of the last three months. His career ISO is .245, but just .152 this month.

	ISO
April	0.345
May	0.261
June	0.178
July	0.222
August	0.152

There doesn't seem to be anything that sticks out in the way Longoria is being pitched and his plate discipline has remained relatively the same if not better. Yet, Longoria is hitting more ground balls (48.1 in last 118 PA) and his HR/FB rate has plummeted from 21.4 in April down to 10.7 in August.

	HR/FB
April	21.4
May	18.9
June	13
July	13.2
August	10.7

After hitting 33 base hits including 13 home runs in his first 218 plate appearances, Longo has 26 extra base hits and 11 home runs in his last 310. Joe Maddon said the recent move down to 6th is to try and help Longoria clear his head a bit and stop pressing. I hate to speculate on it being something else since I don't really know the answer, but one has to wonder whether that hamstring is still bothering Longoria or has caused him to adjust his swing. Defensively, Longoria remains stellar, but without the access to ask Longoria himself, we just don't know what's up with his swing. Hopefully, Maddon is right and Evan is just pressing right now. In good news, he did lace a line drive home run in Sunday's game. With this being make or break week for the Rays, the team really needs Longoria to get back to form and quickly.

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Comments

I won't be too dissapointed if after Sep. 1

Longo is given some time off, to rest. Between Aki, Zo, Brignac, Johnson, Aybar we can find an IF that allows Longoria to not play everyday.

by Dbullsfan on Aug 30, 2009 11:09 PM EDT reply actions

What's with all this rest?

He’s 23 yo for God’s sake

A game lasts 3 hrs and he comes to bat 4-5x—please

by sternfan1 on Aug 31, 2009 5:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Cal Ripken said he wish he was rested.

He also said he would have been an even better player if he had been.

But what does Cal Ripken know, am I lolrite guys?

by Doug09 on Aug 31, 2009 6:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Anybody who's had a hamstring injury knows

Its affects last much longer than the few days longo has missed. He didn’t go on the DL. Again, I’m not sure this is the reason for the ups and downs, but there could still be some underlying soreness there.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 31, 2009 6:52 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Possibly, but his OPS for June was down before the injury

And when i see him beat out an INF hit, the hamstring injury isn’t present

by sternfan1 on Aug 31, 2009 6:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Maybe his back hurts from carrying the team early on in the season?

by Doug09 on Aug 31, 2009 7:04 AM EDT up reply actions

"but his OPS for June was down before the injury"

He was hurt on June 2nd.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 31, 2009 7:44 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

need a proof reader?

Since injuring his hamstring in early July,

by sternfan1 on Aug 31, 2009 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions

thank you sternfan1

Since injuring his hamstring in early June,

that speaks volumes

by sternfan1 on Aug 31, 2009 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions

I think you're almost to the point where you are so much smarter than everyone else that

you should probably just create your own blog. Then people can go there and be in awe of how smart you are. How your experience and grit allow you to be one of the pre-eminent watchers and talkers of baseball. Until then I felt I should let you know that you come off as a complete dickhole.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 31, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions