Chad Bradford Must've Hit Lady Luck in the Head with a Piano

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 30, 2009 9:33 PM EDT Comment 117 comments

Chad Bradford has faced 36 batters.
30 of them have put a ball into play.
20 of those balls in play have been classified as groundballs.
52% of those grounders have turned into hits.

Bradford's overall BABIP is .540, but despite such, his tRA is 2.19 and FIP is 1.29. Let this be a lesson in how deceiving BAA (Bradford's is .444) really is. One glance at that figure and you would think Bradford is throwing watermelons*, instead he's been remarkably unlucky. It might be the oddest line of the year in the majors.

*I would argue throwing a watermelon and making it over the plate is far more impressive than throwing a baseball, but I digress.

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Chadford's contract is in its last year, yes?

I hope so because we don’t need to be paying a right handed groundball specialist 4 mil per year (even assuming his bad luck reverses itself).

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 9:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 30, 2009 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joe Bateman (I write this with ignorance to his splits and working off the assumption he's a righty killer only) seems like a logical in-house replacement.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 30, 2009 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cormier

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 30, 2009 9:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Cormier is the man.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We've got resign him though

any thoughts on what he will command. I’d prefer a one or two year deal.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's arbitration eligible

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 31, 2009 9:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Works.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 30, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ROOGYs with groundball tendencies aren't too rare, I don't think.

I’m sure Batemen would be fine. The problem is Maddon’s bullpen management.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he is better against rhp but it isn't a huge split

FIP of 2.51 against RHP BABIP is .240 against rhh and .265 against lhh

by Dbullsfan on Aug 30, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So why was he sent to AA?

by nyyfaninlaaland on Aug 31, 2009 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haven't a lot of Bradford's pitches

been hit back up the middle, unlike last year he was able to get grounders to the sides. His pitches don’t seem to have the same action like last year.

by Transplanted on Aug 30, 2009 9:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Likely not to be back list

Bradford, Shouse, Choate, Nelson and Balfout

by sternfan1 on Aug 30, 2009 9:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd be surprised if Balfour isn't back

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's either a FA or arby and he'll be a bit costly

by sternfan1 on Aug 30, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He got a 1.4M/1yr deal this year

He won’t get a crazy raise as he’s not putting up unreal numbers like last year

by Transplanted on Aug 30, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Too bad you're not on the arb panel

he should easily get over 2 in a hearing – and he’ll go to one if they can’t make a deal on time. Balfour and his agent know they have to make some bank now. His injury history puts him in the make it now mode. He isn’t geting any younger, and lots of teams would like a crack at getting somebody like ’08 Balfour. KC loves giving hard throwing relievers too much money.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Aug 31, 2009 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shouse and Choate are easily replaceable

as are Nelson and Bradford.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But isn't Choate really cheap?

Rays really need a power lefty to help balance out the pen, in addition to a LOOGY

by Transplanted on Aug 30, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure about Choate. Isn't he a FA after this year?

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Still can be low cost though

by Transplanted on Aug 30, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Choate's arb eligible - 2 or 3 - not FA

by nyyfaninlaaland on Aug 31, 2009 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take bringing in a guy like Cormier over bringing back Choate

if we are going to be paying someone to only get lefties out he better be perfect.

by Dbullsfan on Aug 30, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think we should bring in a guy named

Trever Miller, perhaps you’ve heard of him?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 31, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question?? Aren't Arby2 guys like Navarro, Balfour, Gross and Bartlett

due for automatic increases?

by sternfan1 on Aug 30, 2009 9:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Basically.

Right now I doubt three of those guys will be on the team next year, but that’s just conjecture.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 30, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe half.

I don’t know, lots of time to ponder the scenarios.

I’m battling myself on the non-tender Navarro post.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 30, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All but your fav SS?

by sternfan1 on Aug 30, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wish we had Hanley.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 30, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he is amazing

by Dbullsfan on Aug 30, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cameron joked a while back we should just program a black bar below his name on the SS leaderboards.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 30, 2009 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

At least 2 are almost guaranteed though right?

by Transplanted on Aug 30, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gross is a helluva a ball player.

The problem is we have someone who could likely WAR the same as Gross in AAA (Joyce) and there is no reason at all to leave him there another year. I wouldn’t be against moving CC and splitting time in LF and RF between Joyce/Gabe/Perez until Jennings is ready.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gross is a solid player

But he just seems to be expendable at the moment. I don’t see CC getting moved this off-season, there aren’t many more back the truck up deals lately

by Transplanted on Aug 30, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, Gross is expendable with the addition of Joyce.

I just really like him. His defense is superb and he almost always has good at bats.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Power isn't quite there though

Which is a little disappointing

by Transplanted on Aug 30, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd be surprised if Bartlett is on the team '10

Navi maybe, Balfour yes, and Gross probably.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do a sign and trade with Aki

by sternfan1 on Aug 30, 2009 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rays will likely pick up aki option

and then trade him. With Zobrist, Aki is expendable.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who needs a 2B?

by Transplanted on Aug 30, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have no idea. I'm assuming someone would be willing to give up a low level prospect for him

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure about the market for Aki at $4.25 MM

2B is becoming a spot with lots of FA inventory lately, and not a lot of teams in need.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Aug 31, 2009 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure someone sees him as a 1 Win player

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 31, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

cubs

They need a real lead off hitter as well, Aki would be perfect for them.

Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation

by CubFanRaysaddict on Sep 1, 2009 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And then move him--realize of the three years he's been here he's missed substantial time in two of those

by sternfan1 on Aug 30, 2009 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you have a point?

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are you kidding me? This isn't the NBA. There are no sign and trades in baseball.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Aug 31, 2009 7:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

JB being with the team is going to be an odd situation

He’s putting up crazy numbers, but likely will regress and the defense is fading. But would he be good enough to get a good deal or is keeping him 1 more year for a last shot worth it, especially given the $$$ he’ll get

by Transplanted on Aug 30, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was on the keep JB bandwagon for a while.

If we can’t get a solid return for him, then def keep him for one more year. If we can get one or two good prospects then move him — I don’t know how much other teams will be his numbers this year either. People on the board have begun to convince me that Brigs will only be a minor downgrade, if a downgrade at all.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only problem is all the dumb teams that would give good prospects

Don’t have any

by Transplanted on Aug 30, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sold on Briggs as a hitter

his OBP stinks at AAA

by sternfan1 on Aug 30, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

when he stops getting yo-yo'd nextyear

he’ll hit better

by Transplanted on Aug 30, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's not a major league hitter because of his OBP.

He’s going to hit for some pop at the shortstop position and play good defense. That’s his skill set.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 30, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep. Which should at least translate into a 2 win player. Maybe much more.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Khalil Greene without being emo, hopefully.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 30, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, but increases need not be substantial

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Joyce, 13% walks in Durham.

Post on him tomorrow.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 30, 2009 10:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If he doesn't come up when rosters expand

I will be disappointed.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He needed about 60 days at the start of this year for a year of service time (thanks Detroit)

I don’t know the exact number now, but it’s around 35-40 I think. Which means the Rays may leave him down through the end of the IL playoffs.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 30, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so full-time OF next year?

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't see why not.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 30, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he should be

he is starting to hit LH better

by Dbullsfan on Aug 30, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perez as a backup. Let Kapler and Gross walk?

You almost have to offer Gross arb because he will be worth a lot more than whatever he gets.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would keep him around as a 4-5th outfielder

I would also see if he can play 1B at all. He kind of reminds me a a Lyle Overbay type guy.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 31, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Over the Monster: an unofficial blog for Red Sox bandwagon "Fans"

by raysfan81 on Aug 30, 2009 10:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully that post will be his wecome to TB on 9/1

by sternfan1 on Aug 30, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this

by walkoffwalk on Aug 30, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

mmm Walks

and power, that’s not what we have in our OF right now

by Transplanted on Aug 30, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And defense.

TotalZone has him +11 in RF.

Not sure how that number compares to what UZR calls a +11 defender though.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 30, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds like Gabe Gross.

With a little bit more power.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

probably a lot more power

2x the HR potential

by Transplanted on Aug 30, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would be sexy

Gabe Gross with 30 homers.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The team desparately needs that extra pop

Gives more balance to the line up

by Transplanted on Aug 30, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yea I'll take Gross with a little more power

by Dbullsfan on Aug 30, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of prospects--Beckham and Bortnick are doing well

Along with Kang

by sternfan1 on Aug 30, 2009 10:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Beckham has no upside at all.

or so a bunch of “scouts” tell me.

by RaysTheRoof on Aug 30, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BA just had a write-up on him.

The Scoop: Overall, Beckham’s first full season has been a success. He’s hitting .283/.337/.409 with 33 doubles, four triples and five home runs. Dig a little deeper into his statistics, though, and you’ll see that Beckham sports a strong reverse split. In 92 at-bats against lefthanders this season, he’s hitting .228/.280/.304. It’s also interesting to note that Beckham has hit much better on the road (.325/.373/.496) than at home (.237/.299/.313). Reports indicate that he has put on some weight, which is a concern, as are his 107 strikeouts in 115 games.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2009/268794.html

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 30, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs