The Jeff Niemann Pitchfx Analysis (Part One)

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 4, 2009 11:00 AM EDT

Let's start with the pitch surveying this time.

Fastball

Average velocity: 91.7 MPH

Top-end velocity: 95.8 MPH

Usage: 72.5%

Ball: 34.6%

In play: 22.7%

Foul: 21.1%

Swinging strike: 4.2%

N =1299

Curveball

Average velocity: 77.6 MPH

Low-end velocity: 69.7 MPH

Usage: 15.6%

Ball: 45.7%

In Play: 12.9%

Foul: 12.5%

Swinging strike: 11.8%

N= 280

Slider

Average velocity: 82.4 MPH

Low-end velocity: 75.6 MPH

Usage: 8.8%

Ball: 31.6%

In Play: 17.1%

Foul: 15.8%

Swinging strike: 10.1%

N= 158

Change-up

Average velocity: 82.5 MPH

Low-end velocity: 79 MPH

Usage: 3%

Ball: 54.5%

In Play: 7.5%

Foul: 15.1%

Swinging strike: 16.9%

N= 53

Table form:

Pitch	Velocity	Usage	Ball	In Play	Foul	SwStr
FB	91.7	72.5	34.6	22.7	21.1	4.2
CU	77.6	15.6	45.7	12.9	12.5	11.8
SL	82.4	8.8	31.6	17.1	15.8	10.1
CH	82.5	3	54.5	7.5	15.1	16.9

Analysis after the jump.

Let's look at the obvious: Niemann's fastball misses few bats. Despite the impressive top-end velocity, the fine average velocity, and the mix of two and four-seamers (more on that later) it's an extremely hittable pitch. You may be asking "Well how hittable is it?" I think if you polled most people on which Rays starter had the most hittable fastballs, 97% would say Andy Sonnanstine, 2% don't watch baseball, and the other 1% consists of non-conformists. Sonnanstine has thrown 731 fastballs (cutters, two/four seamers, so on) and 43 resulted in swings and misses.

43/731 = 0.0588

*100 = 5.88%

This year Sonnanstine's fastballs are less hittable than Jeff Niemann's. Perhaps I'm focusing on velocity too much, but something is wrong when a right-handed pitcher who tops out at 89 MPH is getting more whiffs than someone with a fastball that licks 95. To Niemann's credit, his fastball whiff rate is getting progressively better. In his last five appearances 20 whiffs have been generated; only 34 were caused in the 15 prior.

App	FB	Whiffs
1	70	0
2	57	2
3	65	1
4	71	5
5	48	2
6	56	1
7	57	0
8	88	1
9	67	6
10	37	2
11	70	6
12	70	3
13	72	5
14	61	0
15	71	0
16	30	3
17	77	7
18	73	2
19	71	3
20	88	5

I would love to tell you the breakdown by fastball type, especially by seams, but identifying two and four seamers with Niemann is a chore. Here's a look at his fastballs with the supposed two-seamers circled:

Niemann_sfastballs_medium

Maybe some other day for that aspect...

The good news is Niemann's other pitches are all pretty good. Please continue to throw them more.

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Comments

Wonder how confident he is in the non fastball pitches

they all hover around Ball rates of 50%. Taking out the obvious factor that you do throw pitches for balls on purpose, maybe he just doesn’t feel that throwing a hook or changeup will lead to him being ahead in the count.

/amateur analysis

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by Buc Wild on Aug 4, 2009 11:07 AM EDT reply actions

On to things that matter..

What’s his chance at ROY? Is he the front runner?

by tallyray on Aug 4, 2009 11:12 AM EDT reply actions

Barring a meltdown

I’d guess that Andrew Bailey is the favorite. But he has a chance.

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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Aug 4, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Yea, hitters sit fastball which should make his other pitches more effective

I wonder at what point he should taper off the breaking stuff? His fastball pitch type weight is 9.8, so while its not inducing whiffs, the results have been good. It is .75 wFB/C. The fastball actually has a higher value per 100 than the curveball.

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by FreeZorilla on Aug 4, 2009 11:27 AM EDT reply actions