Evan Longoria is a Smart Defender; Rays Clobber Home Runs; David Price Starting to Look like Chris Carpenter

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 5, 2009 11:15 PM EDT

When Evan Longoria chose against throwing home and took the out at first he effectively changed the potential course of the inning. The original situation had runners on second and third with nobody out, as Kevin Kennedy mentioned (again, and again, and a dozen more times for effect) Longoria could have thrown to home and likely allowed both runners to advance an extra base in a rundown. This basically puts the Rays in the same situation with one out. He chose to give up and out for a run and prevent adding another baserunner. Did he make the right call?
In the original situation you'd expect 2.1 runs to score. The play Longoria pursued resulted in a run expectancy of 0.73. If Longoria would've thrown home and gotten into a rundown without allowing either runner to advance a base the RE becomes 0.97, if both advance? 1.5. Odds are Longoria has never seen a RE matrix in his life, and if he has, he probably didn't know the exact figures. Still yet, he made the correct play, the smart play, the right play, and he never hesitated. The temptation of preventing a run from scoring is a strong one, but credit Longoria; he is an extremely intelligent defensive player and showed it tonight.
Pat Burrell and Carlos Pena have homered in the same game twice now. I'm not going to type "If Pat gets going," anymore - except for then - but I hope that number doubles by September.
I'll admit my expectations were set on a split entering this series. Thankfully my expectations were underrating this team's offense - funny how that works, eh? - and in a matter of two games we raised our playoff odds (Coolstandings version) from 29.7% to 36.3%. Each win was worth about 3.5%. Figure if we lose both our odds shoot down big time and this was a huge series to sweep, even if it was only two games.
Jeff Bennett should probably be used only when the run margin is +/- 5 against AL East teams.
Meanwhile Dan Wheeler pitched beautifully tonight.
David Price had a very solid start. Yes, two home runs allowed, but five strikeouts and zero walks over 24 batters faced. Since I wrote that piece on how his walks would regress he's faced 121 batters, struck out 22 (18%) of them and walked 5 (4.1%). That's Chris Carpenter folks, one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Now we head to Seattle. Don't sleep on them, we're heading into a park that limits right-handed power and facing one of the best defensive outfields in the majors. Odds are we won't score a ton of runs and even if we do their defense is going to force us to score them in interesting fashions. The good news is Jeff Niemann is the type of pitcher who should give Seattle fits with his two-seamer. Hopefully we can score against Felix Hernandez.

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I so want to see this team come back 4-2; this road trip is going to be a hell of a lot harder then the one coming out of the ASB. Seattle and LAA are two good teams.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 5, 2009 11:25 PM EDT reply actions

It isn't going to be easy

Rays have struggled with the M’s this year, but seem to do well against the Halos the past 2 seasons. Hopefully they can get 4 plus on the trip, and come back in 2nd with some help. Either way, Maddon seems to state it daily that it is one game at a time. Glad he has that mentality now, wish he had it earlier in the year when they were saving guys for the next game in the bullpen, and let some wins escape.

Rays/Lightning/USF Bulls/Steelers

by SportsRoadhouse on Aug 6, 2009 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Rays struggled with the M's last year too, and have struggled this year on the road against pretty much every team except Boston and Toronto

They have to do things now they haven’t been able to do, plain and simple. There’s no reason why they shouldn’t be able to win either of these series except for the fact that they just haven’t been a good team on the road.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 6, 2009 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Question on your Longo play comment

Understand the run expectancy of each situation after the paly as outlined.

The difference is that only on his choice has a run already scored. So you need to add 1 to the expectancy of his choice, making it the worst choice of the 3. Correct me if I’m wrong, but the expectance of his choice including the result of the actual play can’t be lower than 1.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Aug 5, 2009 11:27 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Good point

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 5, 2009 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah there's no way giving up a run and having a runner on 2nd or 3rd with 1 out is

better than 2nd and 3rd with no one scoring and 1 out.

by rays1234 on Aug 6, 2009 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions

But it wasn't that.

Instead of a runner at 2nd and 3rd with 1 out (maybe), it was a runner at 2nd with one out and a run scored.

Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy

by ReasonableDoubt on Aug 6, 2009 7:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Was at the game and

I don’t know if the graphs and charts can count the deflation of a team, but when Longo threw to first, and got the out, it seemed to deflate the rally significantly. Granted the run scored, and he probably could have gotten him out at home, but he took the sure out with a 3 run lead, and made it that much simpler for Wheeler to hold a 2 run lead. If anything goes wrong, and that run scores anyway and then nobody is out, it would have seriously hurt the Rays. Pitching with a man on second, instead of men on 2nd and 3rd has to make it easier to get the next 2 outs, and Wheeler was at his best tonight. Can’t believe I actually wanted Wheeler in the game after Bennett, but he was awesome tonight. That could have been a disaster, and Longo’s play deflated the Bosux fans, and seemingly their team. I can’t back it up with graphs or charts, but it sure felt like the right choice when he made the play.

Rays/Lightning/USF Bulls/Steelers

by SportsRoadhouse on Aug 6, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions

You have 0 runs scored though instead of 1 if you go home

by rays1234 on Aug 6, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Agree with you, the Zero

runs would have kept it 6-3, it just didn’t seem like going home at the time was the right play, he took the sure out. On TV I’m sure it looked like he would get him, but live it felt like he made the right play at the time. Just deflated the situation. Probably was the wrong play, but it worked out for a change. I don’t disagree with those who say he should have gone home, it just seemed like the play to first releived alot of pressure from Wheeler’s shoulders. Imagine 2nd and 3rd one out, and Wheeler gives up a hit, its then 6-5, but with only man on second, he seemed to bear down on the hitters, and got them out without much issue. It’s all speculative, but Wheeler did a great job to save that inning. As good as he pitched, they might have gotten 3 outs with no runs scored if Longo went home. Hard to tell, I’m sure these guys have some type of chart for it to gauge the decision. Just glad we won!

Rays/Lightning/USF Bulls/Steelers

by SportsRoadhouse on Aug 6, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Since I started this

I don’t disagree with hisplay choice either. It’s more likely an eror can occur going home for a tag than to 1st, and it appeared there was a bitofa bad hop that handcuffed Longo a bit, so I think he made the right choice.

My point was that the statistical analysis of the play was of the situation after the possible choices and didn’t include the result of run resultof the play itself. From the sabermetric POV it wasn’t the best play. From the perspective of the game itself, I agree with what Longo did. To me the analysis simply didn’t include all possibilities and outcomes – unlike RJ’s usual efforts. It’s merely a quibble, but it’s fun to catch RJ in a possible gaffe.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Aug 6, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I would say that David had a better than solid start, considering he was facing a lot of really fucking good right handed hitters.

He has come on very nicely of late.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 5, 2009 11:30 PM EDT reply actions

He's definitely looked more confident since that nuking in Toronto

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Aug 5, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions

His Home/Road splits are a little worrisome

He’s really only had a couple of decent road starts, but most of his home starts have been solid.

He’s still a little HR prone, but that’ll be corrected eventually. He was able to go inside to RHH like JP does which is basically the happy zone for him. Also more pitches low in the strike zone and less up and/or away. Catcher have a factor? no idea

by Transplanted on Aug 6, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Price got ahead

of so many of the hitters, that he clearly pitched so much better when ahead in the count. Those 2 home runs were fat pitches in the heart of the plate, but at other times he blew those by guys tonight. Garza gave up 2 dingers too last night, and that was it for runs, I’ll take that any day 2 runs a game by the starters.

Rays/Lightning/USF Bulls/Steelers

by SportsRoadhouse on Aug 6, 2009 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions

To be fair

he did benefit from a larger than normal K zone. And for a pitcher who’s had some control issues, against a team that typically works counts, that often spells a good pitching performance. I watched Gavin Floyd achieve the same against the Yanks last week with an ump with a generous zone.

Not to denigrate Price, because I thought he looked great, and the ump was reasonably consistent with his zone. And I love to see the Sox lose as much or more than any of you here. Pitch Fx might prove me wrong, but the announcers and my eyes told me the zone was generous. Fair, but generous.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Aug 6, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Plus the crowd was maybe 65-35 us

Definitely 60-40 Rays fans, nice for a change

by dwho98 on Aug 5, 2009 11:44 PM EDT reply actions

Much better Rays crowd

Tonight was much better than last night’s crowd, Rays fans were more behind the team, that’s for sure, desperately need the support. It was nice to sit in our seats, and not be surrounded by Bosux fans for a change. We have season tix, and I swear other season tix holders constantly seem to sell their seats to other team’s fans, it drives ya crazy. I’m at every game, and it amazes me how many season tix holders simply don’t support the team. Glad the Rays get their money though.. tonight was better than usual for Rays support over the Sux

Rays/Lightning/USF Bulls/Steelers

by SportsRoadhouse on Aug 6, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions

The Red Sox have been losing quite a bit since the All Star Break.

Texas might lose another game tonight against Oakland. This race is definitely on, I don’t care what the haters say.

by Zach Attack on Aug 5, 2009 11:54 PM EDT reply actions

They're 8-10 since the ASB.

Worth noting, 11 of those 18 on the road, 4-7 in those games.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 6, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Have to disagree on the Longo play

First of all, NY fan is right, under Longoria’s actual choice, a run actually scored. So if he throws home and there is a rundown, even if the runners move up, it’s simply second and third with an extra out now, the same result as a strikeout. That is the best possible outcome.

Second of all, I do not grant the premise that there would’ve been a rundown and the runners behind would’ve moved up. Pedroia wasn’t even looking, he just went home. Longoria fields the ball, gives a nice rhythm pat, sets his feet, and throws, and Pedroia is out at home. He was already committed and too far gone to get in a rundown. It would’ve been first and second with an additional out.

If you want to say it’s a good play because it’s low risk, then fine. But by no means was it the correct play. I wouldn’t have taken a foolish risk to save a run with a 3 run lead, but in this situation, it was a no brainer and an easy out that Longo passed up. It was the wrong play.

by Bobby Fenton on Aug 6, 2009 12:13 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Rec'd. I fell asleep on the 'run was allowed to score' bit too. Completely forgot to count it.

Statistics aside, so many times the Rays have tried to make the right play this year and have it come back and bite them in the ass. It’s nice to see the wrong play work out for once.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 6, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions

That's for sure

It was nice to get a break for once, seems the Bosux and Skanks get so many free runs from other team’s mistakes, nice that Wheeler and Dude put out the fire and finished ’em off. Wrong play or not, it finally worked out in their favor for a change this season

Rays/Lightning/USF Bulls/Steelers

by SportsRoadhouse on Aug 6, 2009 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions

First dead giveaway that it might be the wrong play ws that KK agreed with it

To me its an immediate red flag that something wrong must have happened

Need a lineup? No problem...just give me paper, pen, scissors, a hat, and a blindfold

by jqueipo on Aug 6, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Does him playing back play any part here?

It seemed like they were willing to concede the run to get the out at first. I’m cool with that considering outs were important there. Getting to 2 outs with a base open meant Wheelz had some leeway as far as nibbling to the next batter. If he gets behind he doesn’t have to make a perfect pitch and we can still avoid the big inning. If we go home, get the out, and its 12x w/ 2out then he has to be careful with the next batter, but he also doesn’t want to walk him. With 2 outs and men on 23 a single probably scores them both anyway, whereas they get the run for 1 definite and a single might score the man on 2, but Wheeler doesn’t have to go after the batter hard.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 6, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Actually, watching the replay

Pedroia had pulled up less than 1/2 way down the line, so a rundown was pretty likely. It’s even possible Longo saw that and went to first hoping the midget could then be gotten at home or would go back to 3B. Personally I agree with his play as the low risk choice as you state.

The analysis that started all this didn’t figure in all the error possibilities, etc that could result as well. Surely errors are somewhat more likely in a throw home and / or rundown scenario. Not that that’s probably measurable – too complicated perhaps even for a saber-freak to figure out. RJ?

by nyyfaninlaaland on Aug 6, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions

OT: stingraymagic on the espn boards is the greatest poster of all time

http://boards.espn.go.com/boards/mb/mb?sport=mlb&id=general&tid=5167661&lid=13

by rays1234 on Aug 6, 2009 12:29 AM EDT reply actions

Couldn't agree with him more!

Just a shame that the red sucks and skanks fans had to piss all over his thread.

by CCtheMVP on Aug 6, 2009 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions

The Red Sox ought to build a team the right way , tear Fenway Park down and build a real stadium that doesn’t have rats crawling in it or an area behind left field that stinks because Manny Ramirez used it as an outhouse instead of going to a urinal.

A couple years ago he used to post about how the Tigers turned the lights out on purpose against the Rays and the Red Sox set off hotel fire alarms cause they were scared.

by rays1234 on Aug 6, 2009 1:50 AM EDT up reply actions

A's win!

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Aug 6, 2009 12:38 AM EDT reply actions

A's are a weird team

They’re not as bad as they are statistically, but then they are on some days.

by Transplanted on Aug 6, 2009 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions

3 wins in a row

by the A’s helped the Rays go from 3 behind the Rangers, to tied in 3 games, how fast did that change? Shows that the Rays can catch the Sux if they can be consistent. Hoping for a Skankees sweep over the Sux maybe when the Rays come home, they are the wild card leader.

Rays/Lightning/USF Bulls/Steelers

by SportsRoadhouse on Aug 6, 2009 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions

God that would just be so beautiful

by Zach Attack on Aug 6, 2009 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree with what you said except about the underrating the offense

If you truly did that, then you must have thought we really sucked the big monkey ass. Last night was arguably the worst offensively performance of the year, for all major league teams. Tonight was slightly better. Sure we hit home runs, which is nice…but how do we rank in scoring without the home run? Either way I just don’t see how you can even think our offense met or exceeded expectations these past two days. It was really really really bad. It’ll take more than a few homers to make up for the massive fail of last night.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 6, 2009 1:17 AM EDT reply actions

We had 600 guys reach base, which is, to me, a little better than

that one time when nobody did. A little more wood on some of those shallow fly outs and we aren’t having this confab.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 6, 2009 7:28 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

the benchmark to offensive success shouldn't be anything above a perfect game...

I’m sorry but I just can’t see how you can remotely say Tuesday wasn’t anything other than a major offensive failure. Of course there were some bright spots, but as a team we really failed. Not scoring with the bases loaded and nobody out (twice) is a major failure. We won, thank god. But the offense, namely fundamental baseball, is still a major problem with this squad.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Aug 6, 2009 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Here's what you said:

Last night was arguably the worst offensively performance of the year, for all major league teams.

Which is absurd. We scored 4 runs. We got a shitload of men aboard. Did we K a lot? Yep. Did we convert all the chances we should’ve? Nope. But you’re really, really trolling if you hold the belief that Tuesday’s performance was somehow worse than the day we didn’t get a single runner aboard. Or when Brian Bannister shackled our bats. Or any of the other times we scored fewer runs. Or any performance by the Royals, Nationals, A’s, etc.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 6, 2009 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed. Matthan is just plain wrong.

You could easily find a start that equals this one in futility simply by looking at any game the Rays played in April, or any of James Shield’s starts. There is no ‘argument’ that this was the worst performance of the year; it’s not even close that it isn’t.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 6, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Just for fun, I went out and found one

April 26th against the A’s, where the amazing Dana Eveland managed to hold the Rays to 4 hits and 1 run in 5 innings and the Rays managed nothing against the A’s bullpen in a 7-1 loss. Any start against a garbage lefty like Eveland is almost guaranteed to be worse.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 6, 2009 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions

You could take any start against any garbage lefty this year and claim it was worse than Tuesday.

We certainly didn’t crush Bruce Chen like we should’ve.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 6, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions

or the perfect game vs the Rays...

Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation

by CubFanRaysaddict on Aug 6, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

yea this would seem like an obvious choice

not sure how you get much worse.

by Dbullsfan on Aug 6, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions

matthan is prone to "slight" exaggeration

raymondo proudly remains the official troll of DRB

Your source for replacement level commentary

by RATW on Aug 6, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm sure Lester's brilliant start and their, generally, solid bullpen had nothing to do with it.

Good pitching trumps good hitting. Our pitching turned out to be better that day.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 6, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions

i agree for the most part

there have been much worse outings than this game. But to get no runs out of 2 bases loaded situations and no outs? Good pitching or no good pitching, somewhere in there you can at least get a friggin ball to the outfield for a sac fly. That’s horrible execution and the reason why we almost lost. But, we can look past it because we did get the W and continued to inch closer to the Wild Card. And that’s what it’s all about.

by raysfaninminnesota on Aug 6, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions

I just took another look at the remaining schedule

And it appears that the Rays really can still control their own destiny.

6 more games against Texas
6 more against Boston
7 more against New York

Would love to see us win each series. It’s under our—their—control.

by plasticman on Aug 6, 2009 2:48 AM EDT reply actions

Ideally

I’d like to see the Rays within 2-3 games of NY in the final weekend, just a sweep away from the AL East title. Assuming that NY keeps winning and the Rays move to a close 2nd place, of course.

by IntrepidX on Aug 6, 2009 2:57 AM EDT up reply actions

good job of Bartlett against righties yesterday

A lot has been raised as to whether he should be leading off against righties and it wasn’t just the homer against Delcarmen last night. Lowrie robbed Bartlett of a hit in his first at bat. That would’ve been two hits off righties. It’s only one game, but it’s a start.

by raysfaninminnesota on Aug 6, 2009 9:50 AM EDT reply actions