Is Scott Kazmir Returning To Form? A Look At Pitch Location & Selection

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 6, 2009 1:15 AM EDT Comment 29 comments

A lot has been said of Scott Kazmir's changes and performance since returning from the DL and working with Rick Peterson. Kaz's post DL/Peterson numbers aren't quite the numbers he put up in 2006, howver he has been more efficient and hopefully the results will follow.

	GS	K/9	BB/9	Pit. Per inning
Post DL	7	7	2.84	17.6
Pre DL	9	6.97	5.77	19.44

Kaz has slightly more K's, a lot less walks and nearly two pitches less per inning. The pitches per inning aren't great, but they never have. Kazmir's OPS against has also dropped nearly 200 points. Since returning from the DL, Kazmir has made seven starts. In five of those starts, he went at least five innings allowing three runs or less. His FIP for those five starts are a 2006-like 3.23. In the two starts that Kaz was roughed up, his FIP was a robust 6.17. So what's the difference? Let us look at the strike zone plots

More on Kazmir's changes after the jump

As you can see there is a pretty big difference. When Kaz has been on his game he has been killing the third base side of the plate. This means outside to lefties and inside to righties. You'll notice that there is almost a complete void of pitches in lower right portion of the strike zone. When Kaz stays away from lefties he's at his best. He has also kept the ball a lot lower. On the bad side you can see when Kaz works the first base side he tends to leave the ball up and that is bad.

In the five good starts he has allowed two home runs in 29 innings. He has 23 strikeouts and just seven walks. In the two bad starts he has allowed more home runs (3) and nearly as many walks (5), while striking out nine batters over the 12.1 innings. Small sample sizes, sure, but there seems to be something about the results he's having according to which side of the plate he's pitching too.

There is also a noticeable difference in pitch selection from the two groups of starts (again SSS alert).

	Four-Seam	Slider	Change-Up	Two-Seam
Good Starts	51%	27%	11%	10%
Bad Starts	60%	12%	17%	7%

Kazmir's last two starts have arguably been his best two starts of the season. In those two starts he's thrown nearly 29% sliders. In his best season, 2006, he averaged 28.6% sliders per start. I'm not ready to proclaim Scott Kazmir back, but if he repeats the things he did in those five good starts, I might be close.

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Great analysis!

Do you think the post-DL stats will encourage ownership to try to hang on to him, or is it just merely increasing his trade value?

by CCtheMVP on Aug 6, 2009 2:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

maybe both?

by walkoffwalk on Aug 6, 2009 7:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure I agree with one of your conclusions.

You state that, “…when Kaz works the first base side he tends to leave the ball up and that is bad.” That makes sense intuitively, but I would need to see the end results for those pitches to be convinced. More striking to me is the presence of pitches low on the first-base side in his bad starts. Is it possible that down and in to lefties/down and away to righties is the spot he should stay away from to be effective?

by Deepdoodle on Aug 6, 2009 7:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Its something to pay attention to going forward

Of course seven starts split into two groups isn’t a large enough sample size to call something a trend, but I did notice this during the games and then did the research along with R.J. and we both noticed the difference. Again something to keep an eye on in hopes that Kaz has really figured it out this time.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 6, 2009 7:47 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Also

I agree it seems that he stays out of trouble more when he stays away from down/in to LHB and down/away to RHB. Notice in the good starts he almost avoids this spot completely like its the plague.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 6, 2009 8:15 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Prior DL his PC was affected by long ABs due to fouling

off his pitches. Do you notice a change there?

by Raymondo on Aug 6, 2009 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't have the data with me, but I think

there are still a fair amout of fouls, that’s always been there for Kaz. The walks are down and that’s helping

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 6, 2009 8:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

I'm known for a knee jerk reaction, but Kaz is one of the few that i've laid off

Young LH power pitchers are few and far between

by Raymondo on Aug 6, 2009 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As i said before, do not make the mistake

of trading Scott kazmir

No reason he can’t return to his ’07 form, where he dominated

by Raymondo on Aug 6, 2009 8:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree, and I too would hate to seem him go,

but what if it comes down to a decision of signing him or Carl? Isn’t that likely, or have I misread the payroll possibilities for the next few years?

by Deepdoodle on Aug 6, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's signed through '11 with a team option for '12

by Raymondo on Aug 6, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but wouldn't his leaving free up money to resign Carl

or is he pricing himself out of Friedman’s reach no matter what?

by Deepdoodle on Aug 6, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about his velocity

and the break on his slider?

In my memory, he used to sit at 92-94 and reach 95-96 while his slider had tremendous late down and in break to righties. My impression is that he now averages 89-91 on his fastball reaching 93 occasionally. Am I wrong about that, and if not, is there a chance he can return to his earlier velocity? Or can he dominate without it?

And is his slider as sharp as it was? Again, I am relying on memory, but it seems to me that at his peak, righties could not even foul it off. Lots of swings and misses.

For example, I attended the game in 2006 that he pitched a 2 hit shutout against Boston. I looked up the stats and discovered that in his 9 innings he threw 120 pitches, 84 for strikes. Of those, 41 were either hit or fouled off while there were 22 swinging strikes (and 21 called).

In his last 2 games, the stats look different. In 7 innings vs. NY, he had 113 pitches and 72 strikes. Just 7 were swinging and 47 were hit or fouled off. Versus KC in 6 innings he threw 114 pitches, 82 strikes, but 55 were hit or fouled off and 11 were swinging.

Of course, comparing 3 games is by itself meaningless, and I may indeed be remembering because that was such a great game, not because it was the norm. But it at least raises a question whether he will return part way so that he is a solid mid-rotation starter or all the way to what his early promise suggested of an ace. I remember thinking that any time I went to a Kazmir game I had a chance of seeing something special, double figure Ks, a low-hit game, a shutout, something. Now I go hoping he gets through 6 innings with a lead. (which is better than earlier when I hoped he got through the first inning with fewer than 30 pitches and no 3 run deficit.)

If he can simply become solid, that is terrific. But the ember of hope remains that he is really more than that.

by bobr on Aug 6, 2009 9:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

In his past 2 starts it looks like he's averaging 91-92 on his fastball and occasionally reaches 93-94

by acablue on Aug 6, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

IN 2006 his swg strk % was 12.2%, the highest of his career

Just last year he was still inducing 11.8%. That number is down to 8.0% for 2009. The last two games average out around 8.3%. I do hold out hope that he very well could return to double digitsas he deos not currently seem to be far off from his 2008 edition. Amazing that he was at 11.8% last year while relying oh so heavily on his fastball, right? Time will tell…

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by FreeZorilla on Aug 6, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How much of that percentage was built up early in the year?

I seem to remember him being red hot when he came off the DL. I don’t remember a lot of swings and misses later in the year and it did seem like he was having trouble putting hitters away when he got 2 strikes on them.

by Deepdoodle on Aug 6, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yea I was surprised the the # too

I don’t have an easy way to check monthly SwStrk %s. But his K/9s went as such in 2008:
May 9.24
June 10.2
July 10.61
Aug 10.05
Sept/Oct 9.00

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by FreeZorilla on Aug 6, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I actually like to see Kaz getting weak ground balls to SS/3B instead of having to rely on the K

When he is striking out the world he will never be able to pitch into the 7th. The rate that guys foul him off has always been high, so I would rather he pitches to slightly more contact if that means the pitch count stays manageable. I like that he’s shaved 2 pitches per inning off since the DL. 17.6 isn’t crazy high, if memory serves me Shields is usually in the 16ish range. That could be the difference between 5.1 IP and 6.2 or even 7. Our bullpen has been used a lot, we need pitchers that can go that extra inning.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 6, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only thing that bothers me about Kaz right now is that I don't know if he can get the strikeout if he needs it.

I know you’re liking his recent propensity to induce grounders, but it’s no good if the reason why he’s inducing them is because he can’t get the strikeout. Now if he’s getting the grounders because he now prefers to get 1 pitch outs instead of 3, that’s fine. But if you’re up a run with a bases loaded situation and less then 2 outs, you need to try for the strikeout to keep that run off the board. I don’t know if Kaz can get that strikeout yet; that’s the one thing I haven’t seen out of him.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 6, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a good point, but if he's keeping his walks down I would think

his likelihood of having the bases loaded is smaller. For comparison, here is his slash line corresponding with the above games:

………Pre…..Post
Baa ..0.316..0.238
OBPa.0.412.0.303
SLGa.0.532..0.444
OPSa..0.940..0.750

The main thing is keeping the walks down so that his OBPa stays low. Of course one thing that could be prevalent is his babip:

……….Pre…Post
Babip..0.360..0.270

Another thing I noticed is that this GB/FB talk is based off of one start 3 starts ago. For the Season here are his GB/FB/LD, by game:

4. 14. 4
11. 8. 5
5. 7. 4
7. 9. 3
7. 10. 3
6. 14. 4
12. 9. 2
6. 11. 5
5. 13. 5
5. 9. 2
6. 9. 4
7. 17. 7
12. 5. 3
4. 14. 2
6. 15. 4
4. 15. 5

I’m not really getting your strikeout argument though when he is averaging 6.97 K/9 over the last 7 games vs. 6.90 over the previous 9.

StrSw Pre=6.22 Post=10.00
StrCa Pre=19.11 Post=15.71
StrTo Pre=58.78 Post=67.43

I assume the strikes that aren’t swinging or looking are foul balls. Those are at 33.44 for Pre and 41.71 for Post. So he’s getting more swinging strikes at the expense of called strikes. Maybe teams have figured out that they are less likely to get a free pass so they are more hesitant to take a close pitch. I’m not sure if I like the foul balls going up, but Matthan showed that each foulball raises the probability of a strikeout by 50%. So I’m not totally opposed to them. I get your point about needing to get that clutch K, but he has vastly improved over earlier in the season. He is not Scotty Kaz from 2004-07, but how many pitchers are? He was a special little guy and if we ever see that guy again, great, but if not we don’t need him to be a superhero anymore. Above-average works for me.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 6, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One more thing, I just checked his Iso and you're looking at .220 pre and .210 post.

For his career, counting this year unfortunately, it is around .152. So once again, this isn’t Superman throwing the ball, but at least when he is keeping guys off the bases, they are less likely to come in once they get a big hit.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 6, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder about the ISO comparison if you were to adjust his ISO for only balls in play and HRs (no strikeouts)

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by FreeZorilla on Aug 6, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So leave in Homers but continue to leave out K's?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 6, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

NM I dumb

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 6, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One more note, his 2009 19.0% Foul% is the lowest of his full season career

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by FreeZorilla on Aug 6, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kaz's slider still breaks in on righties

One thing I noticed was Kaz’s wSL/C was -4.84 in May, but a +2.11 in July. Another good sign.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 6, 2009 12:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Here's an analysis of his PitchFX data last year

From hardball times which claims he throws the FB ~93, and that it’s by far his best pitch. I agree it seems like it’s been a bit slower this year, but I don’t have any data to back it up.

The article also claims his slider is not that great, but I think we all knew his slider wasn’t as good last year as it used to be.

by ChiBurbRaysFan on Aug 6, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs