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Why High Priced Non-Elite Relievers Aren't Worth the Money

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More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

We've heard plenty of times this year about how the Rays need to add a veteran pitcher with closing experience. After Troy Percival's back, arm, and legs gave out along with Jason Isringhausen's arm blowing up, the Rays were left with a rag tag group of pitchers. No current member has held the Rays closer except for Dan Wheeler, who held it ever so briefly in Houston. Not only has the Rays pen not sunk without a true anchor, they've actually been really good. Coming as Thursday afternoon, the Rays were second in bullpen ERA (3.48) and fourth in FIP (3.89). The group also boasts the third best K/BB and fourth best HR/9. Not bad for a group with no names.

Here are the monthly breakdowns...

 

IP

ERA

FIP

K/BB

April

63.1

3.84

4.1

1.81

May

101

4.19

4.6

1.84

June

70

1.67

2.61

3.1

July

66.1

4.21

4.08

2.5

August

14.2

2.45

3.28

2.75

The Rays pen was really never as bad as we thought. Sure, May was not pretty, but it was a far cry from Rays bullpens of the past. The Rays May bullpen also included veteran closer, Troy Percival, who allowed six earned runs in six innings and had a 9.00 ERA/7.57 FIP on the month. Since then, J.P. Howell and Co. have shut down teams more often than not. Every bullpen has a few hiccups along the way, but the Rays have a solid nucleus of guys with no defined titles. " As Dan Wheeler said the Rays don't need defined roles, but everyone has a job and understand that job. "Most of us just kind of understand when we're going to pitch." said Wheeler.

Star-divide

Could the Rays use another one of those non-descript arms like Jason Frasor or Michael Wuertz? Definitely, but the days of paying a veteran reliever a lot of money are likely over for the Rays. Just look at the production they've gotten from the collective group of Jason Isringhausen, Troy Percival, Chad Bradford, Joe Nelson and Brian Shouse aka the Rays relievers who are 34 years or older.

  IP ERA FIP Salary
Percival 11.1 6.35 6.86 $4.45
Bradford 4.1 2.08 1.69 $3.50
Isringhausen 8 2.25 4.2 $0.75
Shouse 16.1 5.51 5.95 $1.35
Nelson 40.1 4.02 5.62 $1.30
  79.4 4.042 4.864 $11.35

Thats over $11 million dollars for what equates to be around league average production. If you take away Nelson, who is currently in Durham, the Rays will pay over $10 million dollars in salary to four relievers who have pitched less than 40 innings combined. Percival and Izzy are done for the season. Bradford is on the DL for the second time with no time table of returning (although I'd expect September at the latest) and Shouse is just returning from his injury. Percival's production was just awful even if it was just a small sample size. I think we all know that had he continued it would've only gotten worse. Isringhausen was ok, but was too small of a sample. Bradford and Shouse are still effective when used properly, but we have guys like Lance Cormier and Randy Choate, who have sub 4 FIPs and will make just a little over a million dollars combined.

The signings of Nelson and Shouse were not bad signings because of their length. Both essentially are on one year deals even though the Rays hold Nelson's rights for future seasons and a club option on Shouse for 2010. I'm not saying avoid all veteran relief pitchers, but signing non elite level veteran relievers to anything more than a one year deal is volitle. I'm not telling any of you guys anything new . Getting less production with a greater injury risk for more money just doesn't make sense for any team let alone the Rays. Most "experts" will continue to say the Rays need a closer, and I'm sure on all the offseason "wish lists" there will be "closer" in the box next to the Rays, but it's not necessary.

The Rays almost certainly will once again pass on the big name who have the closer title attached to them inflating their price. Instead, the team should seriously consider locking up J.P. Howell, who is one of the games true young elite relievers, as well as continue to bargain shop for the next Howell, Grant Balfour or Lance Cormier. 

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This is a little selective

Wheeler is being paid 3.2 million this season, everyone expected him to suck, and yet he’s not on this list. Sometimes people work out, sometimes they don’t. At least all that money comes off the books next year.

Maybe I’m just an old fashioned BJ suck-off-er. (Good call Sandy)

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Aug 7, 2009 3:06 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I've always thought the (negative) expectations for him were a little unwarranted

he was as good as he was last year (in terms of bad stats) in the past, where his FIP among other things looked better. Sure, he was/is a different pitcher from his days as a top set-up man in Houston, but it appeared to me that some were just discrediting his time there. Also, Wheeler isn’t 34. Sure, it could just have easily been 33 and thrown Wheeler in there, though (I think Wheeler is 33, not 32, not sure though).

by Navi's_Navy on Aug 7, 2009 4:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't include Wheeler because

when we signed him he wasn’t in his mid-late 30s. If Wheeler was a FA after this season, I would not advocate resigning him any longer than one year.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 7, 2009 6:24 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Just wondering

Is there any possibility that Percy going away, actually changed Wheeler’s utilization—in other words Maddon started using Wheeler differently?

Wheeler seems to have really found his niche now.

by plasticman on Aug 7, 2009 5:13 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wheeler is throwing his slider more than he has in years.

That has to be a major facet in his turnaround.

by Erik Hahmann on Aug 7, 2009 8:22 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Split to if I'm not mistaken

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 7, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Percival

Troy’s numbers are deceptive, he gave up the runs in 2 games in non-save situations. He showes last year that he should not be used in non-save situations. Also, last year, each time he went on the DL, he never went down for rehab, he would get roughed up his first few appearances after coming off the DL, but then he would be effective…this is why pitchers should always do a rehab assignment after ANY time on the DL…to work on their mechanics.

by Blue or CONKZILLA on Aug 7, 2009 6:20 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Percival showed us last year he shouldn't be used...in any situation after April 2008

However after the awfulness of the 07 bullpen, I’m sure a two year deal was a major reason he signed with us.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 7, 2009 6:26 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Somehow the Rays are blessed with this wierd sense

to find these ‘scrap heap’ type relievers and mold them into gems. Other teams usually fail when attempting this. Look at CLE this year

by Raymondo on Aug 7, 2009 7:57 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It's not "somehow"

Friedman>Shapiro. Can’t wait for John Meloan to be the next J.P. Howell for us.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 7, 2009 8:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Shapiro's worst day is when Bavasi left SEA

He has no plan

One year it’s soft tossing LHP, the next every power arm available

by Raymondo on Aug 7, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's a valid point

It’s probably harder to follow their path and come up with any logic, than any other position

by Raymondo on Aug 7, 2009 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well the scrap heap included bringing 30+ hasbeens/neverwas's to ST and let them fight it out while we were breaking our

Starters in slowly. If other teams pick up on this, then the pool gets real shallow, real quick. I do think that they will look to sign a Joe Nelson type guy/contract every year and then fill out the rest with the cream of ST.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 7, 2009 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Andrew knows the laws of the bullpen

Never assume from one year to the next. He’s done great at it. Even Al Reyes was a good find till he got hurt

by Raymondo on Aug 7, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

um...are we forgetting that Howell is now our closer even if no one will attach the label?

Let’s not act like we don’t have a closer because we do. This doesn’t mean that Howell is guaranteed to always be used in a 9th inning closing role, but sometimes it means when the game is on the line even if it isn’t the 9th, etc. His role is more like what you want a closer’s role to be, without all the restrictions. But if we are ahead going into the 9th, i think we all know who is going to be walking out to the mound.

by raysfaninminnesota on Aug 7, 2009 9:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What point does this serve?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 7, 2009 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, Howell by all definitions is a closer.

He’s just not an overpaid, older closer that everyone seems to think we need.

by Suttree on Aug 7, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

By Everyone, He means Raymondo

Speaking of closers Do you make this deal?

Crawford for K. Wood

Both to earn about the same thru 2010

Both not likely to re sign with their present team

We need a closer , more than we need CC

by Raymondo on Jun 20, 2009 7:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 7, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's a veritable treasure trove of great quotes

when you step into the Raymondo Way-Back Machine.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 7, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Way back on June 20, 2009?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 7, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Some of them only go way-back to 72 hours ago

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 7, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't even have words for this

CC and his production was worth less to our team than Kerry freaking Wood?

Is there a quote hall of fame? These need to be saved somewhere so we can look back and enjoy.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Aug 7, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I do think we need a quote hall of fame.

Half of it would be TGN1 and Raymondo and THE SPORTS CHIEF.

by Suttree on Aug 7, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i understand the point of the article was to say less reliance on high-price relievers

but also mentioned was how you don’t need a closer…and yet, we do have one, whether we give him a title or not. Maybe i misinterpreted that, but it is no longer a bullpen by committee in the 9th when the same guy keeps walking out. And that, however, is a good thing, when you got a guy like Howell.

by raysfaninminnesota on Aug 7, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We don't need a closer in title

We know that JP is the guy, maddon knows is the guy, but to main stream media and people outside the Rays realm they have no “closer” therefore they must need on. This perception is wrong and that was the point. We tried with Percival, Izzy and that failed. I said while there are no titles, everyone knows their role.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 7, 2009 9:31 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

I guess I just didn't read it that way.

I took it as more of, “don’t pay top dollar for old relievers.”

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 7, 2009 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This

I didn’t mean avoid them like the plague, but keep it to one year deals and lower salary like Nelson or Shouse. If it doesn’t work then you’re only out one year of salary and move on.

Its the two, three year deals that kill a team i.e. Percival and even Bradford to an extent. Bradford is still effective, but oft-injured this year and we could’ve done other things with his $3.5 million.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 7, 2009 9:35 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Another thing is treating the closer role as a tenured position.

Just because you HAVE done it doesn’t mean you should do it. That’s where a lot of us get fed up with the whole idea.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 7, 2009 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also we saw this will Hillman

Just because the guy is the closer you can’t use him in other situations. Thankfully the Rays aren’t the Royals and have other options other than Howell earlier in the game, but Maddon has used J.P. other ways lately and not just for the final three outs. That is how you use your best RP.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 7, 2009 9:45 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Almost happened the other night.

Howell should have brought in to face the heart of the Sox order. Instead, Maddon went with Bennett (possibly catostrophic) and Wheeler (okay). If Maddon was really interested in avoiding the closer tag line, he uses Howell there.

by Suttree on Aug 7, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's the luxury of having other good relievers

While I don’t advocate saving Howell for the 9th in that situation, we have Wheeler and Balfour who have been really effective lately to use as well.

Also we can’t used JP In, Game Chilled if he doesn’t actually finish the game.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 7, 2009 9:56 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, but let's stop with this "JP isn't a closer" nonsense.

He is now. He’s used almost exclusively for the 9th. No longer does he enter the game in the 7th and pitch multiple innings, or used only for the 8th. The end of the game is his. He’s a closer.

Maddon deserves credit for a lot of things, but he’s not revolutionizing bullpen usage this year.

by Suttree on Aug 7, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Matthan'd

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 7, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I do too.

Its possible he will be used elsewhere, but 95+% of the time he will finish the game

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 7, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One of the biggest reasons for this is

The effectiveness of his other relievers. If everybody else in the pen sucked, I’d still like to believe Maddon would use JP in the highest lev. situation regardless of inning.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 7, 2009 10:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not debating that.

I’m just saying JP’s a closer.

by Suttree on Aug 7, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's the Iceman

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 7, 2009 10:21 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think anyone is saying anything to the contrary...

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 7, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds like Dan Wheeler's saying it.

Since then, J.P. Howell and Co. have shut down teams more often than not. Every bullpen has a few hiccups along the way, but the Rays have a solid nucleus of guys with no defined titles. " As Dan Wheeler said the Rays don’t need defined roles, but everyone has a job and understand that job. “Most of us just kind of understand when we’re going to pitch.” said Wheeler.

by Suttree on Aug 7, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

which is exactly fine

When it’s stupid is when a manager like Hillman says I can’t use Soria earlier cause he’s the closer. 99% of the time the Rays will go in some sort of order like Balfour or Wheeler to Howell, but they haven’t tied themselves into this with arbitrary titles. Sure, JP is the closer, Wheeler and Balfour are set up me, but they aren’t limited to those roles.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 7, 2009 10:32 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

I think that is legitimate

as he could have used Howell for 2 full innings.

But at the start of the inning, the score was 6-3. That is really not a high leverage situation, although it is close to it given Boston’s lineup. Given the recent effectiveness of Wheeler and Balfour, and his quick hook on Bennett, I don’t think Maddon’s bullpen usage tells us much in that case about how he will use Howell in the future.

What would have been interesting (if heart-stopping) is what would have happened if Wheeler had permitted the tying run to get to 2B. Would he have called on Howell in the 8th then, even were there no outs. Even more telling would have been if it were the 7th inning.

I do think you are right, however, that he is the closer in all but name. Since May 29, he has never entered a game before the 8th inning, and has finished 24 of the 29 games in which he appeared. I do think we would have to evaluate whether he was kept out of higher leverage situations earlier in those games or whether each situation in which he appeared was pretty critical. And I think Tommy is right that having 3 effective relievers makes it less urgent to call on Howell in earlier situations.

There is this too. In those 29 appearances, he came in 4 times when the Rays were down by a run and 7 times when they were tied. He also appeared in 5 games when the Rays were up by 4 or more runs, which means that in more than half his appearances it was not a classical closer situation. So while he may be used as the “save” guy, he is not being limited to that sort of role. At the least, Maddon seems to have broadened the definition of “closer”.

by bobr on Aug 7, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I love you, Bob.

I wasn’t recommending Howell go 2 innings in a 6-3 game. But, against the heart of the order against the Sox, you use your best reliever, especially when he can take the next two days off if you’re concerned about his health. Then use Wheels for the 9th.

by Suttree on Aug 7, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Basically this

Bobr is my closer

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 7, 2009 10:50 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

this

that’s what separates the Rays in terms of closer restrictions. The Rays are not restricted in how they use Howell. And that’s a good thing.

by raysfaninminnesota on Aug 7, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

With minor leaguers such as Satow, Gorgen and Phillips

and possibly Morlan, we seem to be in good shape, to break one in every year

by Raymondo on Aug 7, 2009 9:51 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I would go further

and say that high priced elite closers are generally not worth the money.

That is not because they are quite as fungible or because they are not good pitchers, but because their role is vastly overrated and ordinarily they are used inefficiently so the team does not get full value from them.

It’s as if a business firm were to pay a delivery boy the same salary as its most creative marketers because he does his job brilliantly.

Mariano Rivera will be legitimately in the HOF as a great closer. He is making $15 million this year. For the Yankees, that might be ok, but it still does not truly evaluate what he adds to the team. True, he occasionally gets more than 3 outs in a game, and I think there was a post-season game vs. Boston that he pitched 3 brilliant innings to keep NY alive to win the game. But how much impact does he really have on the Yankees winning compared to what any other good reliever would have?

I am not comparing him to Nathan who makes $11.25 million or even Papelbon with his $6.25 million salary, or any of the other high priced closers such as Rodriguez or Fuentes or Lidge. I mean suppose Howell were there, or some other talented relief pitcher? How many fewer games would the Yankees lose? Or rather, is it possible they might win more games because there would be less reluctance to use Howell in more high leverage situations?

Of course, there is the argument that Rivera offers consistency over many years. Since 1997, the Yankees have not had to scrounge for that elite relief pitcher, and that is worth something. We don’t know how long Howell can keep this up, or David Aardsma or Ryan Franklin et al.

But I still think it is smarter to take the risk that no effective reliever will emerge from year to year than it is to commit so much of your budget to one pitcher who will have to be used in such a limited way. In a sense, it is less a question of how good a pitcher is than it is what label we stick on him and how we use him. We want elite pitchers in the bullpen, but without the label and the limitation that label establishes.

by bobr on Aug 7, 2009 10:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I love the way you lurk....

And dont post too often, but when you do post, it is a fantastic one.

by td32 on Aug 7, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Silent Bob

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 7, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Having fun?

The ‘king’ of copy and paste

by Raymondo on Aug 7, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You asked the question, I answered it

But yea, it is sorta fun. Seems others enjoy them too. I was wondering whether it was back in the foxhole for you or to some non-baseball analysis related quip ie Balfour Pajamas.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 7, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What are you doing Raymondo?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 7, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

u gay

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 7, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was glad that Barbaro died.

Less competition.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 7, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jon Brett killed Barbaro

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 7, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've got a confession: I'm in love with a computer.

I’m in love with a computer. A computer named HAL-9000. Does this make me gay? Am I gay for HAL-9000? You betcha.

by Suttree on Aug 7, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Its funny

I say trade CC this offseason for the right price and am told I am not a fan.
I say trading CC for Kerry Wood straight up is retarded and I am not a fan.

Evidently, attempting to find shades of gray (thought out non-rash decisions) in a black and white world makes you not a fan.

Failure to put CC in a box of Must Trade for Peanuts or Untradeable disqualifies me from fandom. How sad.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 7, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i posted the Wood deal once and only

cause at the time it was an issue of trading salary

i quickly backed off it

So keep posting it

PS—I sign CC—not trade him

This franchise will either be at $100 million in a few years or no longer compete

by Raymondo on Aug 7, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How can you say definitively without exploring the market?

Thats my point. There is not a clear cut answer. The correct answer is to explore the market and then make the decision.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 7, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And based on the post

it looked liek the issue was needing a closer and Woon being valueable to the Rays than Crawford, no? Re-read it:

By Everyone, He means Raymondo Speaking of closers Do you make this deal?

Crawford for K. Wood

Both to earn about the same thru 2010
Both not likely to re sign with their present team
We need a closer , more than we need CC

by Raymondo on Jun 20, 2009 7:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 7, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You win--is that what you're looking for?

Good—now go find out why Davis (your big stud) is having nearly the same year as Carrasco, and is a year older

by Raymondo on Aug 7, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and Giambi released

Hey, someone did worse than PTB!

1. James Shields 2. Scott Kazmir 3. Matt Garza 4. David Price 5. Jeff Niemann

by joeybw on Aug 7, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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