James Shields Gets a Win

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 9, 2009 2:22 AM EDT Comment 43 comments

James Shields, meet run support; run support, James Shields. Consider that an American League average offense scores about 4.8 runs per game, and you have an odd situation with Shields. In 15 of his 23 starts entering tonight, the Rays had scored 4 or less runs for him. Last year the Rays scored 4 or less in 15 of 33; and in 2007 that number was 18 of 31. All told: 48 of Shields' 87 starts were escorted with a below league average offense. 55%. Over the last three years Shields has the fourth lowest run support in the American League (4.59 per nine innings pitched) meanwhile his FIP over that span of time is lumped with names like Justin Verlander, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, and Gil Meche. He's very good, and very unlucky. He's also very human, and when guys go through droughts you have to wonder whether he begins to press a bit. He hit some turbulence tonight but his offense bailed him out. That's a welcome change.
One game into the Gregg Zaun era and I could really get used to having him around. Aesthetically his no batting gloves with socks pulled shin-high combination please. His mullet is fantastic, and his mask, ripped off a former goalie's face no doubt, is a welcome sight. His skills at the plate are pretty evident. He makes contact when he swings, doesn't go out of the zone often, has a little power, and has no qualms about taking a called strike. He sees four pitches per plate appearance on average. By comparison, Navarro sees 3.7 and Hernandez 3.5. 0.3 pitches per PA doesn't sound like much, but Joe Mauer only sees 4.2, Kevin Youkilis sees 4.5, Nick Swisher 4.3, and so on. Zaun is ridiculously patient and disciplined. He's absolutely perfect until a better option comes along.
Russ Springer and Dan Wheeler must get confused for each other a lot in public.

Evan Longoria's hamstring must be feeling better. Over the last 30 days his wOBA is back up to .372, which is basically equal to his 2008 wOBA. Speaking of Longoria, he is a mighty fine defender, isn't he?
Carrying 13 pitchers seems like a poor use of roster spots. I expected one of the LOOGY to be gone by August, and here we are, a week later, with two LOOGY, two new ROOGY, and four others in the pen. I understand the commitment to receiving value in any transaction, but they are left-handed relievers, and since we just designated another LOOGY for assignment, I don't think it's entirely likely we get much for either no matter what. The Book found that relievers are generally underworked when only carrying six-to-seven relievers, throw in another one and oh my heavens.
Speaking of which, the Rays bench on most nights will consist of Willy Aybar, Gabe Kapler, and Dioner Navarro. I'm guessing the plan is to run this crew out through September and then have Akinori Iwamura, Fernando Perez, and a merry troop of Calvary arrive for a suddenly empty bench.
A list of things I will miss about Joe Dillon: 1. His lists; 2. Mark things off this list.

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Zaun taking called strikes regularly can become quite an annoyance

But his OBP should remain disturbingly consistent, so just bear that in mind when he leaves the bat on his shoulder for a backwards K in a crucial situation.

"There's only one cure for what's wrong with all of us pitchers, and that's to take a year off. Then, after you've gone a year without throwing, quit altogether." -Jim Palmer

by Baltimo on Aug 9, 2009 6:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll take his frozen K's over Rally Killer's double-plays every time.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 9, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

Randy Choate>Brian Shouse.
Grant Balfour is good.
Carlos Pena is a man.
Zaun is good at blocking balls in the dirt and guitar hero.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Aug 9, 2009 7:50 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

Godspeed, Santa Claus Dillon.

This short bench will bite the Rays in the ass. It’s playing with fire.

Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy

by ReasonableDoubt on Aug 9, 2009 8:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I thought the same thing too, but then I realized it's only a couple of weeks.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 9, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sabathia, Burnett, Chamberlain, Beckett, Lester, Halladay, Romerom Verlamder, Jzckson

Floyd, Lee, Pavano, Greinke, Hernandez , Huntr and Weaver

by Raymondo on Aug 9, 2009 8:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

W...what?

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 9, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

RJ and several others know

by Raymondo on Aug 9, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm guessing this is a list of pitchers with better FIP than Shields?

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 9, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

By my math he should have won roughly 13.7 games this. 14 wins is pretty good.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 9, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those are the SP's i would rather have on the mound than Shields

by Raymondo on Aug 9, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like our system of 3 #2's and a couple of 3's

Aces make a lot of money. Sure we don’t have a Greinke, but our 5th guys is better than their #2, and we don’t have all our eggs in one basket.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 9, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i would agree but that isn't the question

In the playoffs BOS or NY would be tough with their 1-2 punch

by Raymondo on Aug 9, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

Especially in a 5 game series. One counter to that is that if they have HFA you’re mainly looking to split 1 & 2 and then take yours at home.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 9, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, teams in the same division don't face each other in the first round

Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy

by ReasonableDoubt on Aug 9, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tommy Hunter?

So much for looking at more than one year of data I guess.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 9, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Romero? Edwin? Pavano? Weaver?

LOLZ.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 9, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you're not a fan of advanced stats i see

by Raymondo on Aug 9, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't want any of them on the mound over Shields, is what you see.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 9, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Winning isn't important to you?

by Raymondo on Aug 9, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Winning? Ew.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 9, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's probably a fan of using more than one year of data to project true talent level.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 9, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's probably a fan of anything that'll make your case

by Raymondo on Aug 9, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I live to serve.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 9, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why do you make comments like this when the rules are always the same?

We use the same measures for mostly every player — barring special circumstances — and the same rules in attempting to project or measure true talent level.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 9, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2 of those guys don't even have a full year of success yet.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 9, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I told him i'd select 15 pitchers better than Shields, i've more than done so

by Raymondo on Aug 9, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One of those guys isn't even in the AL anymore

Your source for replacement level commentary

by RATW on Aug 9, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't dislike SHields, but i'm not a huge fan of pitchers

who i term as very hitable

His low K/9 rate coupled with his BAA and WHIP make him more adversley affected by those 19 HR allowed

by Raymondo on Aug 9, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jamie is currently 8th in MLB between Verlander and Felix. Counting stats suck for a reason, I’ll take the guy that can go out and rest my pen everytime, unfortunately, the position players seem to think they can take a rest as well. His 1.08 HR/9 is not brutal and since he keeps his walks low he can afford to give up the occasional hit without it being too critical. You’re just arguing so that you have something to do until 1ish

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 9, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

walks kill. hits happen. that's the game.

So long, Sweet Lime!

by PlayOnWords on Aug 9, 2009 12:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Others Braden, Bannister and Abderson

by Raymondo on Aug 9, 2009 9:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Braden is a figment of his park and Bannister is not as good as Shields.

How can you complain about Sonnanstine and like Bannister?

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 9, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i gave you about 18-20 SP

I’m sure you can find the 15 we spoke of in there that are better than Shields

by Raymondo on Aug 9, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like Garza better too

and while i won’t pit him in the mix because of his start, Kazmir has better numbers prior too

by Raymondo on Aug 9, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

while I would love to see Elliot Johnson back up in the bigs

I’m starting to think we will go 13 pitchers until Perez or Aki is ready.

by Dbullsfan on Aug 9, 2009 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Aki back at 2B--Zo in RF

by Raymondo on Aug 9, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Red Sox in a full-blown freefall and Texas struggling with a road trip, who woulda thunk it?

Seriously, if I could have noticed that block of games earlier, I never would have said the Rays weren’t going to make the playoffs.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 9, 2009 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They beat the piss out of the O's and then lost 2 to us on the road and 3 (so far) to the Yanks on the road.

They are a much better team at home so I wouldn’t really count them out yet. They can’t play the only 2 teams that are as good or better than them every time.

I can't help that I make some things look easier than they really are.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 9, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not counting Boston out. I simply didn't imagine a senario where the Rays could get this close to Boston.

And I know Boston’s a better team at home, but they’re no better at home then the Rays are at home. What I’m seeing out of Boston though is some really ugly play against the Yankees, and that going home to play division-leading, locked in their own division race Detroit is not the way I’d want to try and stop a skid, even if Detroit is a bad road team.

I’m still thinking the Rays road trip ends at 3-3 so they’re probably going to fade back a game, but the Rays are in a win-win with the series afterwards, Boston at Texas.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Aug 9, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs