Andy Sonnanstine's Thesis About Random Walks in the Ballpark
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 1, 2009 10:09 PM EDT
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PrintIn the end, it's one start.
I remind you and myself of this by stating it upfront. If this were Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Garza or James Shields, this would be the proverbial adhesive stuck to the mental box score with a staple attached just in case. It's not though.
Four walks, by Andy Sonnanstine, in one game? That makes no sense. I've checked the stat line thrice over at this point because I find it hard to believe. From 2006-2008 Sonnanstine never walked four in one game. That stretch spans three levels of baseball, 93 starts in total and Sonnanstine never, ever walked four in one game. Tonight marked his third major league start of the season in which he's walked four.
It's one game, but it's really not.
You watch Sonnanstine pitch without the counts and without the batted ball results - strip the game like they do in football - and it's incomprehensible how he walked this many. In the first inning 12 of his 20 pitches were strikes against five batters faced; 13 of his 22 pitches in the second were strikes to even batters faced; 8/13 in the third versus three; 17/24 in the fourth to eight; and 4 of his 5 against two in the fifth. 60% all told.
With James Shields and David Price I've discussed the random variation related with walks and such. Some would say random lapses in control. How do you explain these random splotches occurring to a guy renowned for his ability to avoid them? Why is it happening, why now, and how can it be fixed?
I don't really know. I can splice pitchfx data from now until dawn and odds are I couldn't find anything damning. If Josh Kalk presumably can't find a problem - and it's his wont and job for crying out loud - then I'm no match.
Assuming Sonnanstine's true talent walk rate was ~5% of the total batters, then the odds of him walking 4 within 30 is less than 2%. You can see where eyeballs get protruded when it happens so many times in such a short period of time.
Either you assume his control has worsened - a distinct possibility given his increase in balls - or that he accidentally ran over a black cat during the off-season. It gets hard for me to label it random variation at this point. Either he's hurt or mentally he thinks he has to be perfect every time he throws a pitch, leading to some physical gaffes.
How do you fix that? Can you fix that? Again I don't know. If I was enlisted by Oliver Perez's foundation - the Center for Nervous Pitcher Breakdown Prevention - to write a pamphlet on prevention would read as this:
DO NOT FORCE HIM INTO A 3-1 COUNT
Joe Maddon is apparently not a fan of my theoretical literature and decided to pitch out and force Sonnanstine's hand against Dustin Pedroia. The at-bat resulted in a walk and maybe it occurs anyways, still pitching out twice in one plate appearance is a terrible idea. Maddon has confidence in Sonnanstine to throw a strike but really he should have more confidence in Sonnanstine's ability to hold a runner. Dating back over 69 career starts in the bigs, Sonnanstine has allowed 3 steals and saw 13 caught stealing. Either he, his catcher, or both know how to keep the guy on the base. Yet Maddon didn't trust him with Ellsbury.
Enough about the other things though, let's look at the physical properties of his pitches.
He used a rainbow of release points to toss 38 cutters (only one swinging strike), 29 sliders (two whiffs), 9 curves (1 swing and miss), a change-up, five four-seamers, and a two-seamer. That doesn't add up to 91 pitches and for whatever reason Gameday missed seven, but four hacks out of 84 pitches is 4.8%. Not good, not good at all.
It's one start back with issues.
I hope it stays that way.
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Maybe it just all comes down to the increase in cutters
a pitch that breaks a little more. Maybe it just doesn’t fall in the zone as much as the straighter fastball did two years ago. I will say that his control actually improved (as if that were possible) greatly in his short time at Durham, so I’m still slow to say this is something other than random variation (albeit with a patient lineup). I’m not sure how the calls looked on gameday either, but it might have had an effect early on.
The two aspects of his game that are blatantly visible as a change from year to year is pitch selection and a curveball that breaks more. It might be more to fuel the argument against Hickey, because its a pretty jarring change for someone to undergo considering the success he had two years ago.
Concious effort to change approach (either on his part or Hickey’s), random variation, or a control problem. I really don’t know, but, as much as I hate to say it, this isn’t quite the same Sonny we saw two years ago. That pitcher is a solid #3 starter in this league. This Sonny is a league average pitcher right now (which isn’t good given his perpetual problems with a below average strand rate).
I agree with your last paragraph.
As much as I try to avoid putting too much weight on this start, I really don’t know if he’s that pitcher anymore.
I hate to say it’s a mental thing either, but do you think the home runs have affected how he tries to pitch?
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 1, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it's part mental
9 walks in his 9 durham starts…is that right? And then 4 tonight and 4 in two other MLB starts. He’s watching too many of his pitches get hit all over the place and thinks he needs to be perfect to get MLB hitters out.
If he had a control problem in majors at beginning of year and then fixed it in minors and then it was immediately back in his first start back in the majors then he’s got some bad thoughts in his head.
He doesnt seem as aggressive with his fastball....
Either that, or his command of it has gone down the tubes. He used to be able to paint the corners with his fastball consistently.
How do you throw 6 fastballs in a game?
It doesn’t have to be great if they never see it. Roughly 6% fastballs? No excuse for that.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 1, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
So you are admitting you were wrong?
And there actually is something wrong Sonnanstine.
It’s about time.
1) there was no issue in Durham
2) I still think he would have outproduced Price over the course of this year
3) This isn’t the same Sonny we’ve seen in the past that people complained about. That Sonny was a very very good mid rotation pitcher. This Sonny is a #4 or #5 starter. They’re both acceptable, but neither are as bad as people were making them out to be.
The only thing I came to grips with is that its probably because of all the damn cutters he (or the pitching coach, I don’t know who) insist to throw.
Dude his SwSt% in Durham was not good.
There was definitely an issue. I don’t think there is any way he is a 4 or 5 starter as he currently stands. We’ll have to agree to disagree
8.4% isn't bad really.
Niemann’s was like 9% last year. Davis’ isn’t much higher this year.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
That was swinging strike rate.
His tRA and FIP were lower than Davis’ in Triple-A by the way.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes they were.
He also had been ATROCIOUS at the MLB level this year. He has been AWFUL. There is no getting around it. You can’t argue against Kaz and for Sonny at this point. They are both broken, and I doubt Sonny gets fixed.
Except one had an injury and costs a shitload of money and the other is essentially free.
But right, same cases.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
And nobody is arguing that.
We’re arguing WHY he looks broke. Is it mental? Physical? What?
You don’t have success starting in 70 major league games then all the sudden fall off the wagon without something happening.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Boy you trolling.
Sonny
FIP tRA
2007 4.26 4.41
2008 3.91 3.97
Kazmir
2007 3.45 3.32
2008 4.37 4.78
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
And?
2005 and 2005 Kaz was better than either Sonny year. What about career numbers?
Either way, I’ll take the guy who’s ERA is in line with his FIP year in and year out. Sonny consistantly underperforms his defense-independent stats.
Your entire point was lately.
Your sternfan needs work.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
We'll see.
At this point, Sonny the MLB starting pitcher is looking less and less like a reality going forward.
Okay?
I haven’t said otherwise. I’ve said
1. He was good in the minors
2. Good in the majors in 2007/2008,
3. Not so good this year and appears to have lost control which is bad considering that is the strength of his pitching.
You can argue on 1. and try to argue on 2 but what’s the point? I’m far more concerned about 3.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
And my reply was that they aren't the same situation.
You said I can’t defend Sonny (which I did not, but whatever) and hate Kaz (which again, I did not, I just made a post saying he was looking better…) and I replied the differences are:
1.Type of broke. I don’t think Sonny is physically hurt.
2. Amount of payroll tied into them.
Nowhere did I say I had more/less faith in one than the other to regain form. I do know Sonnanstine will have less chances than Kazmir and rightfully so.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
there is an obvious issue for Sonny
the increase cutter use…
Show me a Sonny throwing the cutter 20% less and instead relies on the fastball again and I bet you see the old Sonny that you find so ellusive.
Its a different approach. I’m set in the fact that it must be the disproportional cutter use. Whatever is causing it, whether it is Sonny’s brain or Jim Hickey, need to be slapped retarded
I'm seriously not trying to be a douchebag
but does this make sense. Is there any reason for a pitcher to underpreform his FIP? Isn’t the entire point that he controls all the aspects to FIP…
You have to realize his SwSt% his first time through Durham was much higher.
Niemann also doesn’t have the same HR/FB issues. Its really silly yo suggest Sonnanstine is a major league pitcher at this point.
I know Sonnanstine's whiff rate was higher.
But his depressed rate was still comparable to guys with much better stuff. That implies he’s still fooling hitters somehow.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Minor league hitters.
Scouting ccaught up to him. His stuff can’t play. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.
HE GONE!
Price has had a quietly good second half
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
On paper it sounds nice if we get
good Shields
good Garza
same Niemann
2nd half Price
AAA promotion
but we’ve been pretty lucky (Hickey’d) by our SP injury luck 2 years running. Nice to know Hellboy is only a train away for spot starts.
Embrace Eternity
We've been extremely lucky with injuries.
Shields/Garza/Niemann/Price/Davis is good. Hellboy can do fill in starts. Sonny is we are truly desperate, although I’d prefer Cormier.
Clearly tonight's loss is BJ's fault.
Anybody who agrees with that might as well not bother coming back.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
what has happened?
i really enjoy watching BJ play, but he’s such a heaping mess at the plate, it’s tough to watch. Do you guys think he’s still hurt, never got all the way healthy, messed up in his head, not the player we thought he was, what?
hes still hurt IMO
all I can hope is the off season gets him healthy……again
1. James Shields 2. Wade Davis 3. Matt Garza 4. David Price 5. Jeff Niemann
I think the season has gotten in his head. I don't think there's anything physically wrong with him, and I'm hoping he turns it around next year.
Because if he has another year like this one, I’m about done wanting him in CF.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
thought about it
but as I was writing the note, I realized I was killing myself over the Red Sox giving us another false sense of hope
If you kill yourself everytime Papelbon makes it close you would be dead over 20 times this year
1. James Shields 2. Wade Davis 3. Matt Garza 4. David Price 5. Jeff Niemann
I so agree on that Pedroia point
3 pitch outs for someone who had no control is so dumb
1. James Shields 2. Wade Davis 3. Matt Garza 4. David Price 5. Jeff Niemann
your wish is Friedman's command, I am sure
1. James Shields 2. Wade Davis 3. Matt Garza 4. David Price 5. Jeff Niemann
Isn't tonight's strike zone
A big reason to not take the results without a grain of salt? It was all over the place & everything, but still he has shown control issues regardless, hopefully he figures it out, otherwise, he may not be pitching with the team as much
i'd shut down BOSSMAN now if I'm running this team
let him go to Nepal to breathe some fresh air.
let him watch Empire Strikes Back and Space Odyssey a few times.
give him a few weeks in St. barts and supply him with hookers/blow.
something must be done. trade Longo for Justin, i don’t know
this is so depressing
i’ve got a lot of respect for you guys who’ve lived through all this before.
having only been a fan in the BOSSMAN-era… I was expecting us to just improve every year… taking a step backwards sucks dick.
I would have even been ok with us making the playoffs but losing. being in the post-season just seemed natural to me back in march.
i looked on paper, and thought, this is a better team than in 08. and BOSS will have 2 shoulders.
this sucks
FINALLY a real idea
this might just work! he can break a shoulder and be fine!
1. James Shields 2. Wade Davis 3. Matt Garza 4. David Price 5. Jeff Niemann
Unfortunately
It looks like the Yanks and the Sox figured they need to spend a little more money and buy better players than they had in 08. We aren’t going to surprise anyone anymore. It’s going to be harder to get back than it was the first time. It isn’t necessarily us getting worse, the competition is also getting better. The good news is that we are a good entertaining team. The bad news is it is never going to be easy to make the post season in the AL East.
It may not matter
It may not matter if we play Boston in a meaningful Sept. game and draw less than 18,000. How long can the owners deal with that?
A tough pill to swallow for sure.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 1, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I would like to agree but....
I don’t… Anyone who is a Bucs fan knows our fans are bandwagon fans… The only reason the Bucs kept a strong base for several years was consecutive winning seasons after 2 decades of losing. An owner that moves a team out of this area is one that had intentions going into the venture. Too much risk in moving a team, now flat selling it is something different. That’s possible.
as for the attendence, tonight was a shock and hard to explain but don't disregard the whole season based on 1 game
someone said in the GDT we are up like 10% in attendence this year when nearly every other team in baseball is seeing dramating downswings in attendence #‘s b/c of the economic situation. PPL expected a bunch of 30K+ games and sellouts but in the current economic situation that isn’t possible.
as far as Sonny is concerned I’m not sure what has happened to him. I still think he could be a decent reliever and as long as he is in a Rays uniform (I’ve been saying trade him since last year) he should be in our pen. He is better than Bennett, Bradford, Springer, loogy’s, but I don’t think he is better than Davis and certainly not Hellickson at this point. I’m not saying Davis or Hellickson wouldn’t struggle right away but they are definately a better option going forward b/c they both a future in our rotation seemingly.
3rd the loss sucked and I said during the gdt that no matter what happened I’d still go to sleep happy b/c our playoff chances weren’t great going into tonight and our chances for 2010 got a lot better with the addition of Rodriguez and while the loss certainly stings I still feel the same way.
4th seriously who the fuck cares if Durham wins the AAA IL title. I don’t know why Joe Maddon decided not to PR for Navi (I don’t consider whatever the fuck he did with 3-2 count 2 outs pinch running more like I’m not even really sure what he was thinking at that point). But if any part of his thought process was our bench isn’t deep enough that is reason #1 that we should have at least a couple more guys up. More importantly one of the great parts about September call-ups is it allows young players to get some ML experience and an occasional AB or inning pitched. While Brignac and Joyce have both had experience I seriously doubt an extra 2 weeks in Durham is going to affect them and allowing them to get some ML AB’s along with helping the team if needed will help them just as much. Wade Davis also has never had ML experience so why not give him a chance to get some innings. I’m not saying call up everyone but those 3 should be up now, not after the IL playoffs.
4th Maddon WTF…. We loved you last year with all your antics and sticking up for Aki and the Ray Hawk and all that shit but seriously I don’t know if you are over managing or what but wtf. Navi reaches first as the tying run and no one out and with a guy in Fernando Perez who is an excellant Pinch Runner on the bench you leave Navi in, yet when the time finally comes where he has to run 3-2 2 outs than you bring in a pinch runner and it is Gabe Kapler? Maybe Perez is sick or hurt and that begs the question as to why he was called up (Kinda like with Bennett after starting last night instead of Thayer). Not too mention we used 8 pitchers tonight, yet against Detroit you leave Niemann in too long and same with Balfour??
HO HO YES ATTENDANCE POSTS!!!!
The girls left. According to one patron, Hamilton, piss-drunk by that point, asked the manager where he could buy blow. The manager didn't know. "Let's go to a strip club," Hamilton said. Someone drove Hamilton to Les Girls in Phoenix, Arizona.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Sep 2, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Texas drew 17,000 last night
…for the second game of their doubleheader with Toronto. They’re vying for their first playoff bid in 10 years, are in better position than us, are in a metro area that is twice the size of Tampa-St Pete, and still drew less.
I never understand the attendance gripes. Last season simply can’t wipe away the first decade of Rays’ futility and the previous ownership’s downright hostility to the fanbase. It will take YEARS of winning and competing for the playoffs and continued fan-friendly behavior b the Sternberg regime.
by MarcusG on Sep 2, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Big difference between the 2nd half of a doubleheader vs toronto and a game against boston.
If we had a double header vs boston yesterday one of the games would have probably drew 8000
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Both games (Rays-Sox, Game 2 Rangers-Jays) started 7:05pm local time
I have no idea what the afternoon game between the Rangers and Jays drew. Point is, those are 2 teams in extremely similar situations drawing nearly identical numbers. As a negative on the Rays attendance, we had a better opponent that theoretically should have drawn more to the park. As a negative for the Rangers’ attendance, their metro area has double the population of the Bay area and their stadium is ideally located.
How ‘bout them Marlins? They’re in another playoff race, home vs. the Braves and drew 14,000 Tuesday night. They’ve managed to win two World Series in their 15 years of existence despite having abysmal fan support.
It is what it is with the Rays…..you can’t be so bad for so long as we were and expect the fan support switch to flip on after one from-out-of nowhere great year. The damage done during the Namoli years will take a long time to fix.
There is nothing more frustrating
Than expecting something terrible to happen and then sitting back and observe when it truly happens. This just seems to be the experience with Sonnanstine this year. The same experience seems to rear its head with Papelbon on the mound and the bases loaded. If I’m correct, that is situation #2 where we have had bases loaded and not a single out, and left the inning w/o a run. God bless Bartlett for taking some decent swings (a few foul ball where he got on top of the ball) then made decent (not great) contact only to get robbed by Ellsbury. Crawford fought and fought only to be done in after 8 pitches. Which brings me to the first batter: Upton. I know that criticizing BJ on this site is either like admitting you’re and idiot or setting yourself up to be proven one, but come on. BJ is supposed to have quick hands and hips – a great match up versus Palpebon one-dimensional fast ball style. But it was like he was constantly fooled by the 4 seem fast ball. You should not be late and under a fast ball, belt high, down the middle off of a guy who throws 90ish % fast balls. Frustrating. And yet, you still get the feeling he could just wake up on the right side of the bed tomorrow and not stop spraying homeruns and doubles all over the field.
"You should not be late and under a fastball, belt high, down the middle, off a guy who throws 90ish fast balls".
Uhhh…have you been watching Upton’s performance at the plate throughout this season? Pitchers routinely throw him fastballs on two-strike counts, and he routinely fails to catch up with them. Hence the reason some are suspecting injury in the shoulder again.
We can express all the surprise we want over Upton’s atrocious offensive performance this year, but striking out on fastballs has become par for the course.
6 GB on 9/2
How fucked are we, again?
2009 Rays Baseball: BATTING STANCE GUY MUST DIE
Be a TRUE Seminole: http://www.seminoles.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/071509aab.html
Super fucked, so fucked... I'm protesting by not going to the games!
71 – 60!?
Fuck this shitty team!
Yours truly,
-Everyone in Tampa
reverse that record
forget last year, and i’m popping the champagne corks for this wildly average team, up yours Ben Grieve.
Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation
by CubFanRaysaddict on Sep 2, 2009 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Pitch Selection
It is so bizarre for a pitcher who had a reasonable amount of success to change his approach is such a drastic fashion. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Sonny;s greatest asset was mixing up pitches on any count. NOw he is a cutter dominant pitcher when it used to be a bit player for him. I can see trying a new approach, but the fact he has stuck with it despite a terrible degree of success, screams that there is a bigger problem here be it injury, lack of confidence in other pitches, or a poor coaching tactic. Its a shame b/c I loved Sonny 08 starts and arguing the merits of a soft tosser. A soft tosser who doesn’t mix up pitches does not have a lot of room for command errors.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Players that give up homers at his rate don't stay in the bigs.
That’s why his homer rate is so high above league average. He stinks. He’s cooked. Maybe he can be OK in the BP. The RH JPedia.
Also,
I’m on the matthan “Fire Hickey” Bandwagon. Something needs to be done when every pitcher seems to get worse from year to year, and they stop using their best pitches.
I'm actually with you, but the turning point for me was when he told Balfour to pitch around Granderson.
Fuck that shit.
This, this a thousand times this.
I’m not really on the “Fire Hickey” bandwagon, I’m just on the, “Rick Peterson is better than everyone” bandwagon and since there is a significant upgrade available, they should take advantage of that fact.
Tools Whore
I been on it for a while now
Even my Red Sox friend I brought last night was like…“Dude Hickey has to go”
Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz
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