Rookie Of The Year Battle: Jeff Niemann vs. Rick Porcello

by Tommy Rancel on Sep 10, 2009 12:30 PM EDT

Not to go all FJM.com again, but seeing Rays players get no respect in terms of individual awards is frustrating. A few weeks ago, Joe Morgan said Ben Zobrist was not an MVP candidate. Wrong. Now we have Jon Heyman giving the AL Rookie of the Year award to Rick Porcello without even mentioning Jeff Niemann. Sure, Heyman mentions Elvis Andrus and Andrew Bailey, both favorites of mine, however nothing about the Big Nyquil.

While we like to look at the "progressive" stats here, most, if not all, BBWAA voters do not care about FIP, wOBA, WAR or things of that nature. For a batter they are all about average/homers/RBI and for pitchers wins and ERA remains king. Whether you look at Niemann and Porcello in advanced or traditional metrics, Niemann is still the better pitcher in 2009.

Niemann	Traditional	Porcello
12	W	12
5	L	8
3.67	ERA	4.26
154.2	IP	141.2
98	Strikeouts	76
49	Walks	43
15	Home Runs	21

Same amount of wins. Lower ERA. Less losses. More strikeouts, and less home runs given up despite more innings pitched.

Niemann	Saber	Porcello
4.14	FIP	4.88
5.71	K/9	4.83
2.86	BB/9	2.73
2	K/BB	1.77
0.87	HR/9	1.33
0.284	BABIP	0.28
2.6	WAR	1.4

Ok, so I can't leave these numbers out even though they won't help Niemann's case. While Niemann isn't as good as his 3.67 ERA, his FIP is still above average. Both have weak K/9's, but Niemann's is nearly a full K better. Niemann sports a better K/BB and a shinny HR/9 of 0.87. Their BABIP's are near washes so "luck" isn't a factor in the ERA difference. Last, but not least, Niemann has been worth a full win more than Porcello.

Sure, Porcello is a 20-year-old, and going forward I'd take Porcello over Niemann 100 out of 100 times. But it's not the Rookie of the Year who's going to be better in the future award. For those who point out the age difference, please remember that Ichiro was named AL ROY.

The main difference between the two are Porcello is headed to the playoffs while Niemann is not. And since we are talking about Jon Heyman, I must mention that Porcello just happens to be a Scott Boras client. I'm not saying Niemann is the run away winner for the award, but Niemann must be in the conversation regardless if he wins or not.

(Numbers used are prior to last night's game.)

Tweet Comment 68 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Ptth

I was all over Niemann > Porcello like, two whole days ago. C’mon Tommy!

by Marc Normandin on Sep 10, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions

Whoa you were all over Niemann two days ago?

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Sep 10, 2009 12:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Every time you mention a Ray they start sucking.

I was expecting Niemann to leave the game with arm pain last night because of your little chat.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

You're right

I was thinking about how great Carlos Pena was just a few days ago. I didn’t even write about it, and he still got hurt.

by Marc Normandin on Sep 10, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

What if you think good thoughts about terrible players? Can it have some kind of double-negative effect?

Quick, tell us Navarro should’ve been an all star!

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Sep 10, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Tommy Rancel has defeated Jon Heyman

not much else to be said here

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Sep 10, 2009 12:33 PM EDT reply actions

rec'd for the pic

by rglass44 on Sep 10, 2009 12:38 PM EDT reply actions

gotta love Niemann's continued development

best thing to be said about Niemann is progress. He has continued to progress all year long. Case and point being striking out Teixiera last night on a changeup on a 3-2 count w/ runners on 1st and 3rd in a tight ballgame nearing the end of his night.

It’s these examples that make you a little more confident in his future on this team.

by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 10, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions

agreed

by rglass44 on Sep 10, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree 100%

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Sep 10, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Does this diminish the Hickey talk?

by td32 on Sep 10, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Nope

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Sep 10, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Wait, how in the heck did he pass up Elvis Andrus for Rick Porcello?

I’m convinced if Andrus were 28/29, in his third org, and white people would be voting him team MVP.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions

then*

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions

MVE?

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Sep 10, 2009 12:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Wouldn't it be MVA?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Doesn't rhyme with MVP.

Come on Cudi

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Sep 10, 2009 12:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

That's it!

I was trying to work volatility in there. Should have googled.

by rglass44 on Sep 10, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

lulz

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Sep 10, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions

You left out the all important stat

“# of times player has kicked Youk’s ass”. Its a resounding 1-0 Porcello.
Game Over.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Sep 10, 2009 12:50 PM EDT reply actions

Good idea for a post

Wish I thought of it…

by Erik Hahmann on Sep 10, 2009 12:58 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

I wish you'd post.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Uh ohz...

Mod fight?

by rglass44 on Sep 10, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions

No?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought the "z" would give away the fact that I wasn't being cereal.

by rglass44 on Sep 10, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

You suck at deadpanning.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

on the interwebz...

My deadpan is SILLY in real life!

by rglass44 on Sep 10, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I wish he actually went to a decent thing at PAX...

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Sep 10, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

If it comes down to Porcello v Niemann there's no contest

by sternfan1 on Sep 10, 2009 1:10 PM EDT reply actions

NIEMANN!

even though Porcello is my boy

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Sep 10, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course, now if Andrus is mentioned or selected, i'd have no problem with that

by sternfan1 on Sep 10, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

This completely ignores which team is making the playoffs

Which is a big chunk of what the voters tend to look at.

Also, I wouldn’t exclude Gordon Beckham or Elvis Andrus from the debate.

Also, what about Ricky Romero? He seems pretty directly comparable to both Niemann and Porcello.

Still, in this relatively weak year, I think Andrew Bailey is basically a shoo-in for ROY. ERA around 2 and 23 saves in 75 IP. Considering he’s pitched only half as many innings as Niemann and Porcello, he’s probably been far more valuable than either one, once you take leverage into account.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Sep 10, 2009 1:25 PM EDT reply actions

Uh...this isn't a who should be rookie of the year post

This was saying how ridiculous Heyman looks for saying Porcello is the rookie of the year, but doesn’t mention Niemann, who clearly has been the better pitcher.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Sep 10, 2009 1:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Oh, you mean reading the post actually helps?

The main difference between the two are Porcello is headed to the playoffs while Niemann is not. And since we are talking about Jon Heyman, I must mention that Porcello just happens to be a Scott Boras client. I’m not saying Niemann is the run away winner for the award, but Niemann must be in the conversation regardless if he wins or not.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Reading posts is for Loooooooooosers

But really, the first part of what I said was in response to the actual post. Voters don’t just look at the stats when it comes to these things. The rest of my response was mostly a tangent.

When I actually looked at Heyman’s article, I see where the issue is better. I’m actually more miffed that there are no Rays at all in his top 10.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Sep 10, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I think voters look less at team records

When it comes to rookie of the year. I mean Angel Berroa?

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Sep 10, 2009 2:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Or at least less than other awards like CY or MVP

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Sep 10, 2009 2:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Part 3 of talking to myself

If the voters do look at record, Bailey is on a last place team and Andrus is on the 2nd place team in the same division. Doesn’t mean its right or wrong, but just playing along with what the writers may look at.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Sep 10, 2009 2:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Trying to make heads and tails of how the writers vote is an exercise in futility.

by rglass44 on Sep 10, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Didn't Bill James get come up with a predictive tool for ROY?

Or was it CY and/or MVP.

Apparently it predicts who the voters will pick and not who deserves it. I seem to remember seeing that on ESPN.

by wtbudlight on Sep 10, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it was MVP...

by rglass44 on Sep 10, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

CY.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Both

They were in the Historical Abstract. There’s also the one for Hall of Fame, which is up on BBRef.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Sep 10, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Did y'all see this?

by walkoffwalk on Sep 10, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions

No, totally missed it

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/9/10/1023895/ottotd-9-10-man-i-dont-wanna-do#20990734

The girls left. According to one patron, Hamilton, piss-drunk by that point, asked the manager where he could buy blow. The manager didn't know. "Let's go to a strip club," Hamilton said. Someone drove Hamilton to Les Girls in Phoenix, Arizona.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Sep 10, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Rotoworld is ridiculous....Hasn't Niemann had more run support than any other pitcher in the bigs?

Jeff Niemann took another tough no-decision against the Yankees on Wednesday night, allowing one run over seven innings in an eventual 4-2 loss.
Crazy. Make that three straight starts in which Niemann has allowed two runs or less, but he has zero wins to show for it. Niemann scattered eight hits while striking out eight and walking just one. He left after giving up a leadoff single to Alex Rodriguez in the eighth, but Lance Cormier, Brian Shouse and Grant Balfour combined to spoil the solid effort. The 26-year-old right-hander now has a fine 3.57 ERA in 161 1/3 innings this season, but his teammates may end up costing him the Rookie of the Year award.

by walkoffwalk on Sep 10, 2009 1:44 PM EDT reply actions

AFTER a lead-off single speaks volumes

way to go Joe

by sternfan1 on Sep 10, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

by rglass44 on Sep 10, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed also, how ya like dem apples

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Sep 10, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree

it makes me angry

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Sep 10, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Send your article to Heyman

I’m not much of a fan of his arguments – too many of them are like this, missing obvious details. However, I’ve emailed him a couple times and he’s always answered.

by TallMatt on Sep 10, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions

Neimann Vs. Porcello

Porcello also plays in a pitchers park

by MetsRaysFan on Sep 10, 2009 3:25 PM EDT reply actions

Has Grant Balfour cost Niemann the ROY?

He definitely has hurt his chances

Bring Your Z-Game!

by Sveet on Sep 10, 2009 3:32 PM EDT reply actions

Oh Boy--here come the Balfour lovers

by sternfan1 on Sep 10, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought I heard that he had blown 3 leads when Niemann was in line for the win this year

If he was 15-5 right now he would look a lot better in the eyes of the voters.

Bring Your Z-Game!

by Sveet on Sep 10, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

3 in a row, sadly

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Sep 10, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

shut the fuck up and die please.

by Suttree on Sep 10, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Personally I think Nolan Reimold deserves ROY, but he didn't even mention him

or Beckham who are leading the rookies in ~~most~~ all offensive categories. Andrus is good, but I don’t think he deserves the ROY. If we were basing it on pitching though, I’d take Niemann; Porcello and Romero had good starts, but have really leveled off as of late…it’s pretty much the opposite for Niemann as I understand. Oh, Bergesen wasn’t bad either until he got hurt.

by Tetris on Sep 10, 2009 5:46 PM EDT reply actions

There aren't many good hitters this year that are Rookies

So I don’t see how Beckham or Reimold can win, and their teams aren’t in the post season race, so major points to Andrus there. Otherwise Niemann probably has to win it, he’s been way improved as the season comes to an end-which helps and I think improvement gets you extra consideration. He’s got a good chance to lead all ALR pitchers in the basic categories like SOs, IP, W, ERA, etc which enough dumb voters only look at.

by Transplanted on Sep 10, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions

LMAO !!!

Did anyone ever figure out why this clown bashes attendance, but can’t attend games ?? Doesn’t the Trop have wheelchair access ??

by 27ftBaja on Sep 10, 2009 7:27 PM EDT reply actions

A reply to suttree

sorry

by 27ftBaja on Sep 10, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, he's got his reasons, user "27ftBaja".

Raymondo/sternfan has his reasons… which for some reason are not clear and cannot be explained. He’s like the smog in Lost.

by Suttree on Sep 10, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Smokey

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Sep 11, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions

I do think there is an age bias

Especially with a guy like Niemann who took forever to reach the majors. I think foreign players essentially follow a different rule. It’s not really ichiros fault for taking forever to hit the bigs whereas it was niemanns. Of course it’s fruitless to try to explain idiocy. Niemann has easily been the top rookie pitcher

Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.

by matthan on Sep 10, 2009 7:30 PM EDT via mobile reply actions