It's all Jim Hickey's fault
Typically, when things go good, the manager gets the credit. When things go bad, the manager gets the blame. I've seen it happen like this everywhere. But being the outside-the-box thinker I try to be, and mindful of the lack of long outings by our starting rotation, I decided to do a little investigating.
Of course Joe Maddon would go with what's worked in the past. But it's not his fault his bullpen has been failing him.
It's Jim Hickey's fault.
I had to do a considerable amount of digging in Baseball Reference to research this. First, compare the starting pitching IP for each of teams currently in the playoff hunt, and compare them to the Rays.
Yankees: 952 IP
Red Sox: 872 1/3 IP
Rangers: 898 2/3 IP
Angels: 936 2/3 IP
Tigers: 908 1/3 IP
Rays: 840 2/3 IP
(Keep in mind the Tigers and Angels have played two fewer games than we have, and the Red Sox and Rangers have played one fewer. The Yankees have played one more than we.)
Our starters have sent the equivalent of 31 2/3 more innings to our bullpen than Boston's starters. That's about 3 1/2 games worth of extra pitching our bullpen has had to do. Our bullpen has also pitched 111 1/3 IP more innings than the Yankees. That's more than 12 games extra that our bullpen has had to pitch.
We have only three team shutouts, and 34 team saves, the fewest of any of the playoff contenders.
No wonder our bullpen has been failing in spots where normally they would work out. They're totally gassed!
Another interesting note is how many different starting pitchers have been used by each team:
Yankees: 9
Red Sox: 10
Rangers: 10
Angels: 14
Tigers: 12
Rays: 7
The correlation between starter IP and making the playoffs is strong. Last year, our starters had 1046 2/3 IP, compared to 1005 for Boston, 1014 for Anaheim and 1055 2/3 for Cleveland. (The Yankees had 1012 2/3 IP last year for their pitchers, so sometimes there's a blip. Take into account that Boston has Papelschmuck.)
In 2007, our starters only had 977 1/3 IP. So our starters sent 88 2/3 fewer IP to the bullpen between 2007 and 2008.
There is really only one person to blame: Jim Hickey. He is the one responsible for the maintenance of our pitching staff. If he gets the bullpen gassed because our starters can't go deep, then we end up floundering down the stretch, and we end up where we are now.
One can say that trading Edwin Jackson was the root of our problems, but it hasn't been one single pitcher. It's been a systemic problem. How often have our starting pitchers made it into the 8th inning?
Scott Kazmir: 1
James Shields: 10
Matt Garza: 5
David Price: 1
Jeff Niemann: 10 (incl. both CGSO)
Andy Sonnanstine: 3
Not very many deep outings. A lot that didn't make it out of the sixth either. Way too many.
The fact of the matter is, the problem is our starting pitching. It is the root of all of our problems. They have the capability: 2008 proved that. We may need new leadership.
1 recs |
19 comments
Comments
While I appreciate the sentiment and the work put into this
that is about 4-8 extra innings of work for the relievers, work that they would have accumulated as the season wore on (and the playoffs if we had made it) regardless. Also, some of the blame should probably go on Kaz and Price as well. By all accounts Hickey has been saying throw strikes, not necessarily his fault if they don’t go out and do it.
by Navi's_Navy on Sep 10, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Funny, suddenly Kaz is throwing strikes now that he's on the Angels.
by RaysTheRoof on Sep 10, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kaz
threw 63.5% strikes in July and 65.8% in August, now he is at 66.5%. Hes been a strike thrower since returning from the DL
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by FreeZorilla on Sep 10, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only thing that's been radically different in Anaheim is an uptick in velocity. But then again, that's over 2 starts. And we already know that the Trop gun has been a bit slow all year.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Sep 10, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yea, I've been meaning to see if he started in the stadiums hes played at with the Angels while he was with the Rays this year
Been sidetracked with work and pointless debates with the baiter. Also been meaning to write on Minor League Playoffs. Maybe tomorrow.
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by FreeZorilla on Sep 10, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm torn...
I agree with this post and rec it.
At the same time… we haven’t scored enough runs (on a consistent basis) to lay the blame on the pitching staff.
And then at the same time … when a bullpen is handed a 2-run lead, their job is to keep it. 2-0 or 10-8, doesn’t matter.
I said last night in Balfour’s defense, he has pitched more this year than ever before (and last year was then an all-time high by a considerable margin) so he may well be fatigued.
Also when you take into account that a lot of his (and other bullpen members’) appearances have been considerably shorter than the amount of time spent in the bullpen getting ready to take the mound, they’ve put in a significant amount of work.
by AussieGriff on Sep 10, 2009 10:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The point is that our bullpen has been capable of holding small leads in the past
And suddenly they can’t. Only fatigue can explain this sudden inability to do the job they’ve done so well up to now.
"That's not baseball. Little numbers in a newspaper is...So-dookie, or whatever."
by Orlando Rays on Sep 10, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or randomness
Or regression
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Sep 10, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
except fatigue isn't the only way to explain it, as Brickhaus said.
it’s so ridiculously hard to quantify the performance of a pitching coach from the outside. there’s no way you can lay blame solely on Hickey without considering the fact that player performance fluctuates even with perfect coaching.
Selgy
by mittens on Sep 10, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This was my point when Matthan was putting together his graphs and maps about Hickey and pitching performance.
But, after seeing Hickey tell Balfour to pitch around Granderson and Shields new found reluctance to throw his change-up, I’m ready for Another Round to go.
by Suttree on Sep 10, 2009 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to see a comparison between this year and last.
How many innings, etc.
by floridaroar on Sep 10, 2009 1:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Things could always be worse
Apparently it took a radio host to make Luke Hochevar aware he’s been tipping pitches?
Your source for replacement level commentary
by RATW on Sep 10, 2009 3:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I see the decrease in innings pitched not necessarily as a bad thing or a sign that things are wrong
But maybe that Hickey and Maddon are trying to protect some of our young pitchers for the future. There was a lot of talk at the beginning of the year about how we needed to be really careful with our starters because of the added stress incurred during the playoffs last year. A couple of our starters (off the top of my head I remember Garza was one) pitched a lot more innings last year than they had before and were in danger of falling victim to the “Verducci Effect”. Maybe this decrease in innings pitched (and also, maybe this decrease in effectiveness) in our starters can be attributed to lingering effects from last season’s over-stress.
Anyway, I have no way to quantify this at the moment, but I think it’s at least worth considering.
"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige
by Steve Slowinski on Sep 10, 2009 4:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sonnanstine was another one in line to get nailed by the Verducci Effect
That’s turned out well.
Hmm…and thinking about it, we’ve had to be careful about Price’s IP limit too (not as strict as Joba but they were being especially careful in the beginning of the year). That leaves us with Niemann (who has never thrown more than 140-ish innings in a season), Kazmir (who has injury issues to worry about), and Shields (who is still a work-horse).
So in that light, maybe it makes sense that our starters aren’t going as deep.
"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige
by Steve Slowinski on Sep 10, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So starters not going deep is a good thing?
Even at the expense of the bullpen?
"That's not baseball. Little numbers in a newspaper is...So-dookie, or whatever."
by Orlando Rays on Sep 10, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The reason you have a bullpen is to reliever tired starters.
Why would you want your starter at pitch 120 still going instead of your fresh relievers?
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want my pitcher to be at pitch 100 in the 8th inning, not the 6th.
You don’t seem to understand what I’m getting at.
"That's not baseball. Little numbers in a newspaper is...So-dookie, or whatever."
by Orlando Rays on Sep 11, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For relievers...
We talk about IP in terms of being fatigued. However we also seem to forget that they have to get up, get warmed up, and THEN go into the game. So for me we have to factor in appearances and “warm up”.
IMO it would be far more tiring for a pitcher to pitch 1/3 of an inning one game, and then warm up the next two games for the possible matchup compared to a pitcher that just tosses his 1 inning every few days and doesn’t have to always get up and down.
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
by matthan on Sep 11, 2009 2:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yea, this has been mentioned in a few other threads
I am working on another bullpen usage piece for next week addressing some points raised by readers and a few other thoughts that popped in mind.
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by FreeZorilla on Sep 11, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
























