Rays Bullpen Backdraft
A backdraft is a situation which can occur when a fire is starved of oxygen; consequently combustion ceases but the fuel gases and smoke remain at high temperature. If oxygen is re-introduced to the fire, eg. by opening a door to a closed room, combustion can restart often resulting in an explosive effect as the gases heat and expand.
That sort of describes what we've seen lately come the eight and ninth innings of games. Once Joe Maddon opens that bullpen door...boom. The Rays bullpen has been bad lately and that's putting it nicely. The pen has combined for 43 appearances and 26.2 innings of awful baseball this month. Once again, traditional or advanced metrics, it doesn't matter; they tell the same story.
This group of collective relievers has posted an ERA of 7.76 and an FIP of 6.86 in the month of September. We have not seen numbers that bad since the 2007 version of the Rays pen. The key is to not be shortsighted here. While there is no rhyme, reason or no sugar coating for how atrocious they have been recently, it is a small sample size compared to the full season.
If we look at this group's work over the course of the entire season, it should bring a few people back from the ledge. In 2009, the Rays bullpen has an ERA of 3.94 and a FIP of 4.35. Here is how they stack up to the bullpen of the current AL playoff teams...
|
|
Innings |
ERA |
FIP |
|
Rays |
401.2 |
3.94 |
4.35 |
|
445 |
4.00 |
4.5 |
|
|
410.1 |
3.66 |
4.01 |
|
|
Angels |
417.2 |
4.59 |
4.41 |
|
405 |
4.24 |
4.44 |
Overall, things have been pretty good. I don't here calls from any of these teams fans to blow up their bullpens and start from scratch. In fact, out of the five teams above only the Red Sox pen has been better this year. Also take into account that these numbers include the awful September as well as Troy Percival, Joe Nelson, Jeff Bennett and others.
Another thing I wanted to check was inherited runners. It seems that every night we see the same scenario; A Rays starter will be at or near the end of his rope. Maddon sends the starter back out to start the next inning and a runner reaches base. From there Maddon marches to the mound and here we go.
The Rays pen has been above average in terms of inherited runners scoring. The AL average for an inherited runner scoring is 35%. The Rays pen is at 32%. However, the Rays have allowed the second most inherited runners to score (102). How is this possible? Simple, the Rays pen has pitched to over 100 more inherited runners than the league average and faced 79 more inherited runners than the next closest team.
|
|
IR |
IS% |
|
BAL |
228 |
33 |
|
BOS |
183 |
30 |
|
CHW |
194 |
38 |
|
CLE |
223 |
38 |
|
DET |
201 |
34 |
|
KCR |
236 |
46 |
|
LAA |
203 |
29 |
|
MIN |
222 |
36 |
|
NYY |
219 |
27 |
|
OAK |
198 |
36 |
|
SEA |
151 |
31 |
|
TBR |
315 |
32 |
|
TEX |
191 |
37 |
|
TOR |
164 |
37 |
|
AVG |
209 |
35 |
It's pretty amazing when you think about how the pen has been used. A Rays reliever has entered the game with a runner on base 202 times this year. The next closest team is Cleveland with 139. Grant Balfour alone has inherited 63 runners (IS 29%). That is 14 more than the next reliever, who happens to be Randy Choate with 49.
As we head into the offseason there will certainly be turnover as there should. Andrew Friedman and his staff recognize bullpen volatility and are always looking at ways to improve their pen. Names like Percival, Nelson, Shouse, Bradford, Springer and Isringhausen will be gone freeing up space and money for the next crop. However, there is a solid core here that should remain in tact. J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler and Lance Cormier are all under team control. And if we are smart about this and look at the whole season compared to the last two weeks, that's a good foundation.
|
|
Innings |
ERA |
FIP |
|
Howell |
63.2 |
2.97 |
3.67 |
|
Wheeler |
50.2 |
3.55 |
4.69 |
|
Balfour |
60.2 |
4.9 |
3.75 |
|
Cormier |
70.1 |
3.33 |
3.86 |
As was the case last season, if we can move Dan Wheeler and his shinny ERA I wouldn't be opposed to that. However, the other three should be back and probably at a combined $5 million dollars or less. Throw in a Dale Thayer type from within the organization, a LOOGY, and the Rays should once again have a thrifty, yet solid, bullpen.
One of the more annoying things about the upcoming offseason will be all the calls for a proven veteran closer. Look at the market. Do you want to throw money at Fernando Rodney? Jose Valverde? Trevor Hoffman? While I disagree with the notion of paying a reliever $8-10 million dollars (unless he is a true elite reliever), the Rays will have the flexibility to add a medium price ranged reliever (Joaquin Benoit? Kiko Calero?) should they chose to.
We all get frustrated and emotional at times especially during an eight game streak in which every game seems like a repeat of the last. However, sometimes we need to just step back, take a look and realize things could be worse. Afterall, 2007 was just two years ago and that was a whole year of pain not just two weeks.
0 recs |
64 comments
|
Comments
Balfor: .759 career OPS with a man on, .599 without
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 8:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Makes sense to keep using him with runners on then
/fail
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Sep 10, 2009 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to imagine the trend holds true for most pitchers.
Maybe the Rays discovered something that tells them otherwise, but I just find it hard to believe that bringing in Balfour, Howell, etc. with a man on and nobody out is in the least bit helpful.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two posts in one thread?
/consults elaborately detailed bulletin board upon which all clues relating to the Is RJ Quitting DRB mystery are connected with yarn and map pins.
A loop. You have thrown me for it.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 10, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think its weird he hasn't said anything about it.
And his posts are about go get cut. Interesting.
Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.
by P Brady on Sep 10, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, yes. User "P Brady"
On my shortlist of Those Who Stand To Gain Most In RJ’s Absence.
No longer the lacky. The flack. The floozy. The gopher. The small potatoes. The pinched and somewhat deformed testicle. P Brady – power that lurks…power that thrives untrammeled!. Free to paper these digital walls in so many shots of fan service. Yes. It’s you who may yet prove to be the agent behind this whole fucking catastrophe. I’ve compiled significant evidence – stolen IM records, wire taps, pleasant chatter with your mother – that proves you are just positively erect (your mother’s words) about Recifio Johannes Anderson leaving these shores of standard deviation.
Or do I?
Don’t slip up, champ.
Don’t bury yourself.
I’m always watching. Waiting. Connecting bits of yarn to 3×5 cards with colored pins.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 10, 2009 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 8 recs
I have too much shit to do to write on DRB.
pleasant chatter with your mother
I highly doubt this ever happened.
Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.
by P Brady on Sep 10, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your mother, Sandy Kazmir in a fancy "Macaroni Grill" dress
What difference does it make WHERE I got my information from? All you have to worry about is that little red bead at the base of your skull. That’s my sight. It’s on you. One little slip, P (may I call you P?), and I’ll turn my data over to the SBN authorities and have your account locked, chained up, and dropped off the side of a pontoon somewhere in the Indian Ocean.
Hip to that, brah?
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 10, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
My mother is dead you fucktard.
How fucking insensitive can you be?
Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.
by P Brady on Sep 10, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
She died during childbirth. I hope you're fucking happy.
Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.
by P Brady on Sep 10, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes she did you insensitive fuck.
Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.
by P Brady on Sep 10, 2009 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm dead INSIDE
So let’s get shitfaced on sour apple schnapps and touch some confused marketing major’s tits, huh?
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 10, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
YOU DON'T KNOW MY PAIN. THERE IS A DEMON INSIDE OF MEEEEEEEEEE.
Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.
by P Brady on Sep 10, 2009 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your pastor wants to talk about letting your demon out.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 10, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't bring me into these shenanigans
The only dress in my house is the one your mother left over here the other night
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 11, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it's possible for me to rec this enough.
Into the Wall : Sarcasm for the Soccer Guy
by ReasonableDoubt on Sep 10, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You need someone to be able fight the fires.
Tommy’s rally against the 1 batter starter seems very valid. I guess my point is if it is the 8th or 9th, don’t putz around. Go right to your high leverage trio of Howell, Balfour, or Wheeler if the pitch count is high for the starter.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Sep 11, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two things
1. What were the numbers like last year? Especially since the easiest way to fix the issue is to reduce the # of base runners allowed.
2. Isn’t that IR numbered inflated because of the rapid changing of relievers?
by Transplanted on Sep 10, 2009 9:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point
on #2
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 11, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was coming with #2
It has a twofold effect. If increase inherited runners. It also decreases inehrited runners scored. Imagine Choate comes in with a runner on first, gives up a base hit leaving runners on the corner, and JP allows the runner to score on a WP before striking out the side.
In reality there are two inherited runners with one scoring for the bullpen for a 50% clip.
For stat keeping, there are 3 inherited runners (1 Choate, 2 Howell), with one scoring being charged to JP for a 33.3% clip.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Sep 11, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good article Tommy--confirms what many have suggested , myself included
why Maddon keeps allowing the SP to go out for what always winds up being one or two hitters, who inevitably he puts on base, thus the high inherited runners stat
by sternfan1 on Sep 10, 2009 10:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does this mean Tommy can now be part of the heart and soul of DRB?
Your source for replacement level commentary
by RATW on Sep 10, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still think we need a designated closer, if that's such a bad idea, why do all the good teams have one, and usually a good one
by sternfan1 on Sep 10, 2009 10:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And seriously.
Bad teams have closers too, some have really good ones. You’re above this sort of logic.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Allow me to re-phrase, i'd like to designate a closer
so JP can go back and do what i believe he does best, put out fires no matter when they occur
by sternfan1 on Sep 10, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Umm
JP is the man, but i would like to addanother late inning guy
by Raymondo on Jul 20, 2009 6:34 AM PDT on No Closer Needed: J.P. Howell Is A Bullpen Ace on DRaysBay
since the 9th belongs to Howell
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Sep 11, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
closer needed? No. Better relievers than just bargain bin? Yes
Rather than pay 1 guy that much money, why not get at least two really good relievers. Jeremy Affeldt has paid dividends for SF. Perhaps a Mike Gonzalez would do well here…and give us another good lefty.
by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 10, 2009 11:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Very little about our pen is bargin bin.
Considering the payroll, we’re spending way, way too much on the pen with dead weight like Percival, Isringhausen, and so on.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not that I wouldn't like Affeldt.
He’s nice.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not saying closer is needed
but if Soria were available, what would you be willing to give up for him? Brignac, Anuery Rodriguez, Perez/Talbot? Is that anywhere near enough? Could they do it without giving up one of their top pitching prospects?
by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 10, 2009 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This would widen my smile
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 11, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can I anti-rec Bartlett for Soria?
by RaysTheRoof on Sep 11, 2009 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shirley, you aren't serious.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 11, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
problem isn't money spent, but how and where
can’t spend big bucks on a injury-risk (Percival), or anyone that has a ‘closer’ label, which causes prices to soar. But for same amount of money can get a good setup man. Problem is, looking at 2010 FA relievers, there seems to be more slim pickings than usual.
by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 10, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kiko Calero, Joaquin Benoit, and Affeldt.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 10, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i thought affeldt signed a 2 yr deal?
is benoit going to be healthy? Calero would be a solid pick up
by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 10, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And that's 35 YO next season Kiko Calero
- recently back from shoulder inflammation after nearly a whole season missed due to rotator cuff problem Kiko Calero?
Sounds like he might be having the year Balfour had in ’08. Maybe…
by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 11, 2009 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wanted Affeldt so hard last year
Redundant, I suppose, but the dude has been aces over in SF.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 11, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty good park for a lefty to pitch in though, no?
I’m guessing Affeldt may be a FB pitcher after his years in Col and Cinn, but I am just guessing.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 11, 2009 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
67.9% GB this year, nutso
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=583&position=P
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 11, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LIke I said - didn't look it up
shouldn’t talk off the top of my head. But it’salso not like that’s typical for him looking at the career – though definetely not a FB pitcher as postulated.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 12, 2009 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When Percival retires ...
… and the Rays dump Bradford, Springer, Shouse, Isringhausen, Choate, and Bennett, and deducting Kaz’s $8M, that’s a savings of almost $20 million for next year. Spend half of it on CC, and let some young guys pitch.
This meltdown isn’t an accident. He’s using the righty/lefty thing and virtually everyone except Cormier and Wheeler can’t execute pitches. Howell is worn out. These older guys were available because they are no good. They miss location by two feet. Choate can’t even tell one finger from two.
Put Hellickson in the rotation next year and make Price the closer for awhile. Give Nelson another look on a make-good. Have Cormier pitch the 7th or 8th, give J.P. a break. Let Mitch Talbot be the long guy if he’s healthy, he is seasoned enough. Let Dale Thayer pitch. Trade Balfour and/or Sonnanstine while they still have any value.
Stay off the free-agent market. Anyone good you have to overpay, and the fan base isn’t here yet.
Sorry for the rant.
by OrioleSteelerz on Sep 11, 2009 12:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You somewhat had me until "and make Price the closer for awhile."
If this were to happen (I know full well the odds are zero) I’d kill both my parents with a butter knife in rage.
What you think all the guns is for? All purpose war, got the Rottweilers by the door. And I feed 'em gunpowder, so they can devour the criminals, tryin' to drop my decimals.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Sep 11, 2009 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can agree with a lot of this
No Price for Closer, I would like to see them go after a good reliever in the 1/4 or 2/7 range. I would prefer to get a guy for less time even if it costs us a little more.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 11, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree the nucleus is there to build off.
I also think the 3 arbs might earn upwards of $5MM – they’re at $2.5 this. Balfour is arb 3 so his hearing isn’t just about ’09 and he was great in ’08. Howell has 2 solid years under his belt, and significant closing time this in his 1st arb go round. Cormier easily could top $1MM off $650 K in ’09.
I gotta think the Rays are talking to JP about a deal. Not sure what is meant by a Nelson “make good” (will he pitch for free?). There could be a market for Wheels since he’s in his last contract year plus an option.
From a NYY perspective – sure Mo makes more than the Rays pen combined likely – their pen is moving in the right directon, with 4 of the 6 top IP guys still pre arb (though Hughes shouldn’t be a long term solution there), and 5 other prearbs up from AAA for September, 4 of whom have been up earlier as well. None of those 9 will be 30 next season – 7 are currently under 27, 1 27, 1 28. And the pen’s trend is distinctly better as the year progresses. Plus I guess there’s hope for better with better health from Bruney and Marte, and what can one say about Mariano.
I still hold to the belief that the high number of appearances, though not IP, is showing on the group now. And the point above about IR’s high with so many short stints is a very good one.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 11, 2009 2:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nobody here cares about the Yankees
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 11, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Understand - late, was tired.
My underlying point – buried while talking about NY – was that the Rays don’t have much in the way of homegrown help in that arena around the corner, barring some effective SP conversions. And Gorgen looks good.
The other lost point was the trend in pen numbers as the season has progressed – not a good one for TB to master the obvious of late.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 12, 2009 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And perhaps you should care about NY
know thine enemy and all.
I sometimes feel those here view the Rays in a vacuum, especially in the prospect arena. “Our guys are so good, our future is so bright.” Fact is there are impending holes it will take excellent trades to fill – which I wouldn’t put past your org. There are very good top end guys, but the depth falls off quick, and maybe a bit overconcentrated in pitching.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 12, 2009 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Price suggestion based on the Papelbon model
Yes I hate mention RS on this site, but that was my motivation. Plus the fact I think DP could dominate if he was just a two-pitch pitcher. Smoltz went back and forth, and excuse me but I project DP to belong in that category someday. JPH is much more of a setup guy; guys with that stuff who can close are rare, but the exceptions are nice ones: Trevor Hoffman, Doug Jones, Brian Fuentes.
by OrioleSteelerz on Sep 14, 2009 3:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by 




















