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Reviewing the Rays Baserunnning Game

Rays making Rickey proud.

More photos » by Tim Roske - AP

Rays making Rickey proud.

My original intent was to cover the base running game in the run scoring post last week. Naturally I forgot all about that aspect until the next day. So, let's talk about that now in bullet list form. (Note: all statistics are as of Friday morning.)

  • Despite the ongoing season, the Rays have already stolen more bases (172) this season than last (142). With such an increase in aggression, you have to expect some increase in failure as well, yet the Rays have only been caught stealing an additional three times on last season's total.  Some other comparisons: five more pickoffs, 20 less outs on the bases, and a nearly static percentage of extra bases taken (~40%).
  • By base breakdown of the steals in 2009: second (148 successes, 42 caught) and third (23, 10)  versus 2008: second (113, 38) and third (28, 10).
  • Baseball-Reference describes a stolen base opportunity as a runner on first or second with nobody on the base in front of him. The Rays have 1,934 of them this year (2,301 last) and have attempted 225 steals this year (192 last). That's 11.6% steal attempts versus 8.3% last season. That's right: they've actually been more aggressive in stealing bases and more successful.
  • Four Rays have at least 20 stolen base attempts: Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Jason Bartlett, and Ben Zobrist. Crawford has attempted a steal in 28.3% of his SBO, Bartlett 15.4%, and Zobrist 9.8%; Upton surprisingly has the highest percentage at 29.4%.
  • Meanwhile, Crawford is the master of stealing second (51/60) but struggles on third (5/8) while Upton isn't fantastic at swiping second (25/35) but pretty good moving to third (11/13).
  • Linear weights has the Rays success/caught run difference at 10 runs versus last year's 5.6 runs.

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Somehow the Rays finished better than average at outs on the basepaths.

That after starting off horrendously.

Maybe there’s some issues with taking the extra base though. Navarro is surprisingly good at it.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 15, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Situationally, it can be argued there were some mistakes

The overall aggressive nature is a strength. Note that none of this can account for any value derived from being a distraction for the pitcher.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 15, 2009 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually I changed my mind

Looking into the effect right now

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 15, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not too big an effect.

Unintentional walk rate went from 9.3% to 10.5% with runners on. K rate increased from 20% of PA to 20.8%. Slash line went from .259/.332/.450 to .266/.357/.788

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 15, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Am I reading the slg right?

Are you saying their slg went up to .788 with runners on? That seems outrageously high. Is it supposed to be .488 maybe?

by ReyL on Sep 15, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reply fail to boot

damn,.431 Somehow OPS slipped in there. SLG actually decreased with an OBP increase

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 15, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

damn,.431

Somehow OPS slipped in there. SLG actually decreased with an OBP increase

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 15, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

More statistical illusions!

W/L, RJ! They don’t give trophies for Most Aggressive Losers!

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 15, 2009 9:29 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

CC

13/18 post ASB. Both attempts and success rate declined. When was it that he hurt his back?

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Sep 15, 2009 9:31 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He definitely had less success

I also think he had fewer opportunites though as his slugging picked up. Early in the year he was not getting past first base on a batted ball.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 15, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Regression probably plays a role.

Going 20/20 takes some luck, no matter how good you are.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 15, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would agree to a point

You will get thrown out. But 13/18 is very un CC like, and his history of aches and pains leads me to believe there was a wearing down effect over the season. I remeber early in the year he stated he was only going to run when it mattered so his body woudl hold up. I don’t think CC’s speed game is going to last forever. Its a big reason I am open to trying to find a great offer for him.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 15, 2009 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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