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Around SBN: 2011 In Extreme Home Runs

One More Crack at Dissecting Bullpen Usage

Last week I took a look at how the Rays' 2009 high leverage FIP of 4.87 underperformed their season FIP of 4.36 while the average team fares 0.25 better (lower) in high leverage situations. I proposed that this was due to inefficient bullpen management. According to The Book by Tom Tango, pitchers should perform to the same ability regardless of situational leverage. Therefore, teams should use their best pitchers when the moment is the most critical.

 

Low Lev Med Lev HI lev
TBR  4.61 4.1 4.87
AL AVG 4.51 4.52 4.25

 

If we are to further isolate High Leverage opportunities by the bullpen only we see this:

 

OPS FIP
Bullpen 0.713 4.32
BP Hi Leverage 0.791 5.18

 

The Rays have basically had a Big 3 in the bullpen this season comprised of J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler, and Grant Balfour. Based on Tango's study referenced above, these 3 should be receiving the lion's share of high leverage work.  Here are their high leverage numbers compared to the bullpen:

Star-divide

  OPS FIP
BP Hi Leverage 0.791 5.18
Big 3 Hi leverage 0.653 4.07

 

So when the Big 3 have been called upon they have performed by about 0.25 better according to FIP than the bullpen. Yet, the bullpen overall has been a massive failure in high leverage situations. Is that because there were more high leverage innings than innings of availability for the big 3?

 

Consider this: 26.3% of batters faced by the bullpen were of the high leverage variety. The Big 3 have accounted for 42% of total bullpen usage. 60.3% of high leverage opportunities have gone to the big 3 which means Big 3 high leverage opportunities account for 16% of the overall bullpen use. So the big 3 account for 42% of total usage of which 16% is high leverage. This leave 2/5's of the high leverage spots to the rest of the cast.  This does not seem to be the most efficient use of  resources as the Big 3 should be able to sacrifice low and medium leverage opportunities for higher spots.

 

Another point Tommy Rancel has been all over is Joe Maddon's tendency to over extend a starter into a new inning, only to remove them upon the first runner reaching base. The bullpen's OPS against for 2009 is .713. With runners on base, it rises to .824. Similarly, the starting rotation's performance decreases drastically as the lineup flips over for the fourth time.

 

OPS FIP
Bullpen 0.713 4.32
BP w Runners On 0.824 4.37

 

 

BA OBP SLG
1PA 0.250 0.319 0.409
2PA 0.261 0.330 0.415
3PA 0.264 0.325 0.435
4+PA 0.339 0.377 0.600

 

When a starting pitcher is near 100 pitches as the lineup flips for the fourth time around, the Rays would be well advised to turn it over to their bullpen with the bases empty. The fresh arm should experience greater success without the added pressure of inherited runners.


The last issue to discuss involves frequent pitcher changes once into the bullpen. The average Batters Faced per Relief Appearance in the American League since 2006 is 4.82. In 2009, the Rays are averaging 3.92. The second lowest figure over that period belongs to the 2007 Boston Red Sox at 4.15.  Last season with largely the same bullpen the Rays were at 4.55.

The 2009 Rays bullpen is on pace for 507 total appearances or 3.13/gm which since 2006 is second only to the Yankees at 522. Lets take a look at the top 5 bullpens in terms of total appearances since 2006 and compare their Season FIP to that of August. Please note I pro-rated 2009:

 

Year Team Appearances BF/App FIPs FIPa difference 
2007 NYY  522 4.49 4.64 4.69 -0.05
2009 TBR  507 3.92 4.36 5.2 -0.84
2008 BAL  492 4.97 4.74 5.13 -0.39
2007 BAL  490 4.92 4.85 5.37 -0.52
2006 NYY  489 4.63 4.47 4.8 -0.33
Avg -0.43
Avg of All teams 0.04

 

So the top 5 most worked teams in terms of relief appearances since 2006 all suffered performance drop offs in August while the average change among all teams was a nominal improvement.

 

Now let's look at the five most taxed bullpens in terms of batters faced:

 

Year Team Batters Faced BF/App FIPs FIPa

diff

2006 KCR  2581 5.46 4.97 5.26 -0.29
2008 TEX  2564 5.6 4.55 4.2 0.35
2007 TEX  2556 5.47 4.24 3.66 0.58
2008 BAL  2443 4.97 4.74 5.13 -0.39
2009 BAL  2,424 5.25 4.42 4.25 0.17
0.084



This is much more in line with the average among all teams of .04. It seems that fewer bullpen appearances that go longer are less fatiguing over a season than more frequent shorter appearances. Perhaps the Rays have not accounted enough for the effort burned during warming up in the pen.

In summary, I am of the opinion that the Rays season was affected by misuse of the bullpen. The best relievers were not used frequently enough in high leverage situations. Starters were left in too long, often the dreaded fourth time around the order, forcing the pen to habitually come in with runners on base, a scenario in which they proved to be less effective. Finally, the entire bullpen broke down during the homestretch due to excessive turnover  causing  too many bullpen appearances.

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This might be a dumb question
Consider this: 26.3% of batters faced by the bullpen were of the high leverage variety. The Big 3 have accounted for 42% of total bullpen usage. 60.3% of high leverage opportunities have gone to the big 3 which means Big 3 high leverage opportunities account for 16% of the overall bullpen use. So the big 3 account for 42% of total usage of which 16% is high leverage. This leave 2/5’s of the high leverage spots to the rest of the cast. This does not seem to be the most efficient use of resources as the Big 3 should be able to sacrifice low and medium leverage opportunities for higher spots.

Is it a well known fact that the best pitchers should be used in high leverage situations, regardless of inning, count, batter, etc? If so, why is Maddon leaving 40% to others.

If it’s not a known fact, can we alert Maddon (where are you unknowninsider?)

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by Buc Wild on Sep 16, 2009 12:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Well known in the sabermetric community

Not so much among most managers.

Conspiracy theory says the “importance” of saves is driven by player agents. DRB has supported the case against a designated closer for a long time.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I attempted to calculate % of big 3 BP use in high leverage sitations for the relative top high lev teams

Player turnover due to injuries, starter conversions, and acquisitions made this too difficult. The Rays were blessed/cursed with the same top 3 all year, save TroyBoy’s few weeks of sunshine.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Another question
Starters were left in too long, often the dreaded fourth time around the order, forcing the pen to habitually come in with runners on base, a scenario in which they proved to be less effective

If it involves too much work, that’s fine, but do we have any comparisons in terms of bullpen numbers for other teams with and without runners on? I’m wondering if the Rays were worse with runners on and that’s league average, or if they fared worse than other BP counterparts

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by Buc Wild on Sep 16, 2009 12:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Lg Avg for Bullpen W Runners on Would be A Lot of Work

I weeded out the Rays starters for that figure. Lg Avg splits amongst all pitchers are:

No one on: .262/.326/.424
With men on: .270/.344/.427

So OPS increases by .022 across all pitchers both ST and relievers with men on

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

What is the traditional measure for bullpen's in terms of how often they can be used.

Is it every other day? no mroe than two days in a row? a certain # of pitches over a time span?

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by Buc Wild on Sep 16, 2009 12:27 PM EDT reply actions  

The runners on thing makes no sense to me.

Unless there’s something I’m missing, bringing in Balfour (or Howell or whomever) after the starter gives up a single or a walk is just pointless. It’s like Maddon is scared to death of pulling a guy before he allows a negative result, which is absolutely irresponsible.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 16, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions  

I internally debate what I would choose if a starter:

1) Leave game following in an inning during a solid outing
2) Go back out knowing I am coming out with 1 single base runner allowed no matter how flukey.

Starters seem to hate coming out mid-inning after a “bad” note

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't see the point in 2.

If Derek Jeter singles on a grounder that passes through the first base hole, is that really to blame on James Shields? Does that single really change Maddon’s mind as to whether Shields can continue getting outs? Or is he using that as a wedge so he doesn’t get blamed for babying his starters?

If it’s the last one, he should be fired.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 16, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed, it seems a deep fly out is less concerning to him than a weak grounder that the runner beats out

Too results based. I also don’t know if he’s babying the starter on the other side as in not wanting him to ruin his good start. Its really difficult to rationalize.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pressing.

Maddon has made so many irrational decisions this year based on trying to maximize short-term results in favor of long-term sustainability.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 16, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

No way.

Any man with money on the line wouldn’t drop Carlos Pena to sixth against righties.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 16, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bet Against the Rays?

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

No way.

Any man with money on the line wouldn’t drop Carlos Pena to sixth against lefties.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 16, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

He had money on the Rangers to make the playoffs this year.

Frankly, the whole Ring of Fire thing was pretty fucking embarrassing.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hate to pick on him at probably his lowest point.

But how much of his perceived value is simply based on his quirkiness?

I don’t doubt he’s a good people person and that’s important too, but I don’t know, I wish James Click could talk him through most situations.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 16, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

How much of his perceived Quirkiness/People Skills was based on his record?

11 losses in a row after falling out of the playoffs does not speak to his players “playing” for him. Both arguments are cliche.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great work Zo. It sort of disputes an earlier thread

that made the claim that the pen wasn’t so bad afterall, citing at the time, that it was better than 4 of the 5 teams vying for a playoff spot

I’m wondering if last year the pen had more or less high leverage situations to perform in

by sternfan1 on Sep 16, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions  

To be clear, this post isn't railing on the pen, but on pen usage

I stand by Balfour, Howell, and Wheeler.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think you re-call the post i'm pointing to

what i’m saying this disects the problem and shows it’s ineffectiveness

I can tolerate Wheeler, and Howell is/can be good when he has command, Balfour is a head case and needs to go far away

by sternfan1 on Sep 16, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

No worse than where you put him

He is an above average reliever. He is neitger HoF worthy nor Out of Baseball worthy

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mmm, sacrilicious!

No one thinks Balfour is as good as Papelbon (who is hardly a future HOFer) and Rivera. He’s an above average reliever, quit acting like he’s 2007 esque Shawn Camp.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sure

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would agree with that.

We’ve had some iffy moments – for everything you can say about Josh Hamilton and Elijah Dukes, they weren’t good trades – but this is the worst in the sense that there is little, if any, logic behind it.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

You could also make a case for Levon.

I wasn’t as angry about it as some people work, but you can’t blow your first round pick.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd still go two LOOGY.

They understood LOOGY aren’t hard to acquire and they understand that carrying two is really making poor usage of a roster spot. I don’t get why it lasted so long and I don’t get why they did it in the first place outside of money.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 16, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

If I recall correctly, I think Oakland had three lefties one year, back when Ken Macha basically neglected to use Chad Bradford.

I’m not sure exactly what that was all about either.

But yeah, it was poor planning by Friedman’s part. If it was about cash, sometimes you just have to eat 750,000.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, easily.

I can’t even fathom the thought process behind it.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have a major problem with starting Aki, though I suppose that's a loyalty thing.

Zobrist at 2B and the RF platoon is a better starting lineup than with Aki in it.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree.

I also have an issue with the Brignac playing time — or lack thereof — as I stated yesterday.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 16, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hate being super critical of Maddon, but there is a laundry list of grievances against him this year.

The Brignac thing is just stupid. You’ve got the kid up, play him. He’s not going to learn otherwise, particularly when Aki probably won’t be back next year.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

MGL posted a thread on Maddon yesterday or two days ago.

On The Book Blog. He’s a pretty big anti-Maddon fan — although again, I think this stems from his public perception as a genius and such…not Maddon’s fault, but you know how it goes — and I commented on just things that popped to mind. It’s scary.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 16, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm torn

I am not in favor of replacing Maddon at this point though I am critical. He should reevaluate some of his processes in the offseason however.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Francona's pretty excellent.

Obviously, he has more expensive players, but I’m not sure his roster is anymore complicated. Excellent bullpen usage, knows how to work a platoon, players like him.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thats why I am cool with him

We have had team success under him, the players do seem to like him, and no replacement that stands out. Overall he has been good. Just really pressed 2nd half of the year. if he goes back to gray, he can stay.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't ever remember being quite this disillusioned with his body of work.

But yeah, I’m not going to say he needs to go. Hopefully it was a learning experience.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 16, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

The World Series was awful.

I’m not sure if Matthan mentioned instances other than that — he may have, I honestly don’t remember — but yeah, it’s really bad this year and I’m not sure it has to do with our record.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 16, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's the classic media trap

Everything is perfect when you’re winning. Bad substition, plays,bullpen/player management. It all gets glossed over. But when losing creeps in, you question everything.

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by Buc Wild on Sep 16, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Results based analysis.

But I think most of what we’re dealing with isn’t results based. Like lineup changes.

I care not in the least if Pena is 0 for his last 10 before going down, then goes 20-20. That’s not because he moved down.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 16, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

It has to be money, right?

Shouse 1.5 mil, a buyout at the end of the season. You really can’t bet on any team taking that on.

Choate is probably the guy to keep, he’s cheap, but nobody gives you value.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 16, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Which is why we probably shouldn't drop 1m plus on relievers are aren't guaranteed to be particularly useful.

I’d rather just play with the Choates and Abreus of the world if payroll’s going to be that tight for the next couple years.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

Sinking money into the Rays pen is nto good use of funds. Sinking is a pretty good term for what we have done with big money relievers.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Was he a million+ salary when we picked him up?

I’m happy with Grant. I think he would have performed better with better management.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's what I thought.

Dirty, lazy Aussie. Gets a taste of the goods and he becomes a crook. Go back to your filthy, inbred homeland, you god damned Hibernian wretch.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah.

Though, I guess I should make the distinction between free agent signings and trades. Bradford has also been good and he’s expensive.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I also think we are carrying too many relievers

If you carry an extra reliever and he gets work, that is less work for better pitchers. Too many toys in the chest.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

You mean the post that was showing that while the bullpen has been a disaster recently

it wasn’t a true indication of their performance over the season?

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by Tommy Rancel on Sep 16, 2009 1:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Big 3

If you go by FIP then Wheeler is not in the top 3. Bradford, Choate, and Cormier all had better numbers.

by MetsRaysFan on Sep 16, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions  

on the plus or minus side?

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by Buc Wild on Sep 16, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really, they're just awkardly shaped.

Balfour’s dick is shaped like a boomerang.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Must be his aussie nature.

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by Buc Wild on Sep 16, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

Although it seemed that Springer took alot of Wheeler’s innings when he arrived.

by MetsRaysFan on Sep 16, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Springer thing kind of sucked.

He’s a good reliever, but he didn’t really perform well for us. That could have been a Bradford 2.0-type late season move and it just didn’t click.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

But he would bring in Springer with the bases juiced. Thats where you need a gorund baller not a FB pitcher, again mismanagement

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Again, that kind of stuff blows my mind.

You don’t have to be sabermetrically inclined to understand the need for a GB or strikeout there.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Which time

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was being facetious

He has brought Springer in multiple times with runners on base. Remember the O’s game where first Cormier gave up the slammer, walked the first two guys the next inning, leading to Springer?

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ah, yes.

F+ for me and Merlot Joe.

by Suttree on Sep 16, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Most accurate line i've read in a long time--kudos RJ

Maddon has made so many irrational decisions this year based on trying to maximize short-term results in favor of long-term sustainability.

by sternfan1 on Sep 16, 2009 2:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Two kudos in one post from sternfan, Heart and Soul baby

Must be in an indication that the post tone was negative

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 16, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hire Eric Wedge

as you know i follow the Indians too, and they have been lousy, but not because of Wedge. His players never quit, and he knows how to set up a bullpen when given the talent, Shapiro has failed that franchise, not Wedge

by sternfan1 on Sep 16, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fans of the Indians call for his scalp daily

As RJ said, Maddon was fine as long as he didn’t start coming up with his own numbers. Now he apparently has

by sternfan1 on Sep 16, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

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