Is Carl Crawford Slowing Down?

by Tommy Rancel on Sep 17, 2009 6:00 AM EDT

Fresh off of a two caught stealing night, I decided it was time to check on Carl Crawford's speed. Thanks to Bill James's speed score (via Fan Graphs), we can easily look at what's up with the biggest part of CC's game. For those wondering what speed score is, it's basically to base runners what ISO is to a power hitter. For this version, the metrics used to calculate the score are: Stolen Base Percentage, Frequency of Stolen Base Attempts, Percentage of Triples, and Runs Scored Percentage. Note that the scale is a 0-10 with a speed score of five being average. Michael Bourn has been the league's fastest man this year with an 8.6, while Adam Dunn has the distinction of the slowest at 0.8

For his career, Crawford's speed score is 8.6 which means he's fast; very fast. CC peaked with a speed score of 8.9 in 2004, but has "slowed down" in each season since. Since that peak, Crawford has posted scores of 8.6, 8.5, 8.3, 8.0, and down to 7.6 this year. Even though he has slowed down in 2009, his speed score is still fourth best in the majors behind Michael Bourn (8.6), Jacoby Ellsbury (8.1), and Elvis Andrus (8.1).

Cc_medium

This year has been one of peaks and valleys for Crawford. He started out at a 7.0 in April, but quickly got his legs under him and posted a 9.4 in May. From there he went down to a 4.5 in June before bouncing back to 7.2 in July. Once more, he took a dive in August down to 4.6 before posting a 6.2 so far this month.

While the numbers month to month seem to be pretty inconclusive, one must wonder what the toll of the Tropicana Field turf is really doing to Crawford. Last year Crawford stole just 25 bases and hit a combined 30 extra base hits. This year CC got off to a great start with 27 extra base hits and 44 steals in 51 attempts over the first 88 games. However, in the last 51 games he has 20 extra base hits and just 13 steals in 18 chances.

The biggest concern most of us have with a potential Carl Crawford extension is that his value has always been and always will be tied to his speed. If he maintains his speed like Joey Galloway and Darrell Green were able to do in the NFL, than one would assume that CC will remain at or near the top of his game for years to come. However, if the trend continues, then one day his most valuable asset will fade away and that means the rest of his game, namely defense, will suffer a huge blow.

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Moving forward this will derail his base stealing skills

Some of the all time great base stealers relied on base running skills not only speed. Crawford has relied on speed only

by sternfan1 on Sep 17, 2009 7:19 AM EDT reply actions

Wrong

You are talking about BJ, CC has a great read of pitchers. BJ goes first move.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 17, 2009 7:25 AM EDT up reply actions

So explain it then, and explain how Ricky Henderson could still steal bases into his 40s

by sternfan1 on Sep 17, 2009 7:33 AM EDT up reply actions

.......

I mean, what does this statement even mean? Carl reads the pitcher extremely well and gets great jumps. In combination with his speed, that’s what makes him a great base stealer. It’s been pointed out a million times by several different commentators, including Joe Magrane, Steve Phillips, and Joe Morgan. Morgan may be a tit, but he knows a thing or two about base stealing.

by Suttree on Sep 17, 2009 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Ok then, so explain it. Explain how Cy Young could win 611 games into is 70s.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 17, 2009 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, well, then explain why no pitcher ever suffered injuries before pitch counts.

by Suttree on Sep 17, 2009 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I think the onus is on you to explain why there were more injuries after the gloves were made larger.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 17, 2009 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions

I hate to be a contrarian, but it seems to me that baseball became last fun after black people became involved. Explain.

by Suttree on Sep 17, 2009 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Black people sold steroids to the white players.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 17, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions

IF JASON BARTLETT IS ON STEROIDS, I WILL NO LONGER WATCH BASEBALL.

by Suttree on Sep 17, 2009 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions

That's almost as bad a bet as putting 11 large on the Bills last Monday night.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 17, 2009 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions

That guy should have just taken the 11 grand and gone to Costa Rica.

He could have lived like a king.

by Suttree on Sep 17, 2009 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Apparently he's fleeing to Brazil.

Hotter women, presumably.

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Sep 17, 2009 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Also, it's more fun to get murdered by a 12 year old in Brazil than it is to die of disease in Costa Rica.

by Suttree on Sep 17, 2009 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions

holy moly shit

I was just going to come on here and post some bland statement about the son of god. and how it would be unfair to hold it against CC considering his superhuman adversary. BUT that was fucking hilarious. I love the D Rays. cormac mcwho?

by b_duardo on Sep 17, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Because Rickey Henderson is a person with a totally different physical makeup who didn't play 81 games a year on artificial turf.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 17, 2009 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Well if one of the greatest players of all-time can do it, then why can't Carl Crawford?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 17, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Well they are both black and they both talk funny...

sooo………why not?

Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.

by matthan on Sep 17, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Indeed.

Crawford has the technical aspects of stealing down. He’s not just outrunning a throw.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 17, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions

There was a noticeable change a couple months ago

We clearly should have traded him at his peak at the deadline and must deal him now. The risk is far too great that carl won’t run and when he does he is a good but not great player. We must trade him before his value drops when the league notices he hasn’t run successfully in a very long while. Once they do then we are stuck with him. Andrew ignore “perceptions”. Trade him when the going is good. People will be pissed but they’ll show up for a winner. With CC we will average 10k the remainder of the season. Without CC as long as we are in the playoff hunt we will continue to grow our attendance base. Trade him…

by matthan on Sep 17, 2009 7:20 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

I dont think its been a "very long while". The ASB wasn't even 3 months ago.

I would bet that he comes out firing early next year, like he did this year, and that his value can be restored for a trade deadline 2010 move.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 17, 2009 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Restored meaning boosted.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 17, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm a believer that SB attempts and success rate shouldn't be so volatile

He was on an extreme pace early on. Heck people thought he’d hit 100. That was the peak. If we began counting at the peak until today where would CC rank? Would he even be in the top 10 in SB?

by matthan on Sep 17, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree, it seems there should be less volatility in base stelaing than other skills

I think he has worn down as the season has gone on.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 17, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Looking back on the way this season has ended,

I wonder if it would have been the right move. I still think CC moving forward will be better. His speed may deteriorate, but I think he’ll always be at least a decent threat on the basepaths and a good defender in LF. I still like the Johnny Damon comp. personally.

by rglass44 on Sep 17, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions

But a Johnny Damon salary does not fit on this team.

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by Tommy Rancel on Sep 17, 2009 10:11 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Nor a JB according to many

by sternfan1 on Sep 17, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Nope. Not when the second coming goes 4-4 with a homer

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by Tommy Rancel on Sep 17, 2009 10:50 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Followed up with??

by sternfan1 on Sep 17, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Can't be perfect everyday. Even God took a day off.

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by Tommy Rancel on Sep 17, 2009 3:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

actually he was done afterwards, but i hear ya

by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 17, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions

He doesn't have a JD salary.

If he gets one, he’d still be a good value.

by rglass44 on Sep 17, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Not if Desmond Jennings can do the same for a lot less

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by Tommy Rancel on Sep 17, 2009 11:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Maybe

It depends on BJ and MJ too. BJ may be gone in two years.

by rglass44 on Sep 17, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you're reading far too much into a down stretch.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 17, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Honestly this began a few months ago. Carl not running and not running successfully is not a new development

He started the year real hot and then went really cold (at least per his standards). Combine that with his previous year then that makes me think that the super hot start of this year is more likely to be the outlier than 2008 and the last half of 2009. Of course that doesn’t mean he isn’t a good player. However I don’t want the Rays (or the fans) to think that we are getting first half of 2009 CC. That isn’t going to happen.

IMHO next year we can expect the speed slightly better than 2008 and a tad worse in the average/power department he had in 2009.

Still not bad, but if someone is buying first half 2009 CC then sell, sell, sell.

by matthan on Sep 17, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions

I obviously don't think he's going 20-20 or whatever it was again.

I’m just saying, let’s not pretend he’s aged five years during the season. He’s tired and beat up, but I don’t think that’s unusual.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 17, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

I guess I'm taking the other side, where I think the early part of 2009 was the outlier

Isn’t his 2008 very similar to his last half of 2009? If so shouldn’t that be what we expect going forward?

by matthan on Sep 17, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

What in the hell are you talking about?

I’m not taking any side other than “I don’t think his success rate on steals this late in the year tells us much heading forward.”

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 17, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

And that is called taking a side...

You say we can’t draw much conclusions from his slide. I say we can. That is called being on different sides. However I also do not thinking it is a “decling this late in the year”, but rather an entire half year. I am also using 2008. So the way I see it 1.5 of the last 2 years he has been significantly slower than he was the .5 of the 2 years. But this is why it is an opinion (and again taking sides); you don’t think it means much going forward whereas I do.

No need to get your panties in a wad. You have an opinion and I think the evidence points in a different direction.

by matthan on Sep 17, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you lead the league in strawman arguments.

by rglass44 on Sep 17, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

xSMA is 4.31.

Raymondo’s leading the pack at 3.87 xSMA.

by Suttree on Sep 17, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

What is my strawman argument?

I think ya’ll try way too hard to be argumentative.

He said this “"I don’t think his success rate on steals this late in the year tells us much heading forward."”

I said that I think his early season 2009 season was the outlier and that I’d expect his 2010 season to be much more like his 2nd half 2009 and 2008 season.

What exactly is wrong with that? Please tell me. Am I not allowed to have a different opinion than RJ? Where is the strawman? I freaking posted his position verbatim and my opinion clearly is different than his. How did I misrepresent his opinion?

Of course you all have to resort to ad hominem attacks. That seems to be par for the course when someone disagrees with an opinion here. Whatever happened to rational debate? It sure seems like the typical reaction to disagreement is an ad hom.

That being said if you want to discuss CCs future then so be it. Clearly my opinion is differen than many of yours. I think his 2008 and 2nd half 2009 is a strong predictor of 2010. You are all welcome to your opinions.

My suggestion is simple. If you want to debate then do it rationally and reasonably. Use some evidence. If you want to just say your opinion then that is okay too. I don’t expect a full blown debate on every topic. However I do expect that posters here do not resort to ad hominems. Either defend your position using reason or just do not comment at all. Is that too hard to ask?

Don’t turn this place into the heater.

by matthan on Sep 17, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

This is for this:

No need to get your panties in a wad. You have an opinion and I think the evidence points in a different direction.

I’m not making or even thinking about what you seem to think I am. Stop doing this. It’s not a good trait.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 17, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you mean "e-social skillz."

by rglass44 on Sep 17, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't even know what the hell I'm supposedly arguing.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 17, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

It would have the papers all in a rage but...

The Rays may be better off trading both Bartlett and CC (depending upon the return) and filling those positions in-house, and reallocating money elsewhere to sign at least two bullpen arms (2 from Wagner/Soriano/Gonzalez would be nice). Wagner would be a 1 year deal, and Gonzalez would probably get a Affeldt-type deal of 2yr, 8mil. I’d be shocked if they couldn’t get both for 10 mil or less. Which is what it would cost for Valverde alone. And if the Rays could net Buster Posey in one of the trades…

by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 17, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions

I'd rather land Mike Wuertz.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 17, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions

touche

he’s cheaper and just as good. But only as long as he is one of two bullpen additions, it works well.

by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 17, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Jepsen, maybe look at Nick Masset if his cutter is legit, and a few others like Kiko.

Gonzalez is interesting though.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 17, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

would add another good lefty to the pen

and for affeldt money with closer experience, that would be great. So would Wuertz…but doesn’t he still have one more year of arb? So we would have to trade for him with Oakland? Perhaps for Aki?

by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 17, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

I know aging relievers with some injury issues seems like a reoccurring nightmare

but Wagner doesn’t have the injury history that Percival had, was pretty healthy outside of his Tommy John issue…but has looked very good in small duty with Boston in his return. He can succeed in big-market pressure, and i think he would enjoy going up against Boston and New York. If price is right and he isn’t the only addition, it could be a good move.

by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 17, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Kiko and Benoit are injury cases that should be cheap.

I’d take either/or.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 17, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm terrified of Mike Gonzalez.

All those appearances a year removed from TJ.

Bobby Cox’d

(Peep the leaderboard in appearances. Bobby loves to work some relievers to death.)

by rglass44 on Sep 17, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Considering how cheap, how volatile, and the high turnover it definitely seems like the smart move to ride your horses until they have nothing left

by matthan on Sep 17, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

/Maddon'd

by rglass44 on Sep 17, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

In a post game interview about a month and a half ago

Crawford stated that stealing bases took a great toll on him along with the turf, and that he was running less because he had to preserve his body for the rest of the season. I’m just adding a little perspective to his recent sub-CC running abilities,
Post ASB numbers-
’09- 13 steals 7 CS
’08- 6 steals 3 CS (not a good sample because of injury)
’07- 27 steals 4 CS
’06 26 steals 1 CS
’05 19 steals 3 CS

Looks like CC is finally starting to feel those creeks in his body that come with age, or he has some small lingering injury, because as is obvious in the post ASG stats of yesteryear there was no downward trend in his ability in the past.

the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009

by CubFanRaysaddict on Sep 17, 2009 1:13 PM EDT reply actions