James Shields - Rookie Year Part 2?

by Buc Wild on Sep 17, 2009 12:18 PM EDT Comment 13 comments

I don't think it's any secret that the Rays "ace", if only by default, had a tough year. The perception seemed to be, at least in my opinion, that every time Shields would pitch well, he'd get little run support. The games where he would have a so-so start, the run support would be there. An aggravating dilemma (if my perception is correct).

Shields will have been at the MLB level for the better part of 4 years as of the close of 2009. I was looking at his fangraph's page and saw some interesting points, some of which may have been made already, but thought it would be good to jot them down anyways.

All stats are from fangraphs and are as of Wed (9/16).

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2006	Devil Rays	7.51	2.74	2.74	1.3	0.332	0.724	4.39
2007	Devil Rays	7.7	1.51	5.11	1.17	0.292	0.718	3.86
2008	Rays	6.7	1.67	4	1	0.292	0.733	3.82
2009	Rays	6.57	2.22	2.96	1.22	0.314	0.724	4.15

I'm not going to pretend I have the answers for all this, but it seems every stat seems to be regressing back towards his rookie year. Strikeouts per 9 are down, walks are up, homeruns per 9 is up, BABIP (though still playing with a solid defense) is up and FIP is up.

So whoop-de-doo, I've uncovered the Earth shattering fact that he is having a down year. He's being hit harder for one, his LD% is up from 16.2% to 20.4% and his HR/FB is back up to double digits at 11.3%.

One stat I'm not sure I understand, but I'll give a go is in regards to leverage. It seems he's being left in a batter or two too long (as referenced by Tommy, FreeZorilla, and anyone else with a pulse). His exLI (Average Leverage Index when exiting the game) is 1.42, up from 1.30, 1.27, 1.25 (2006-2008). This got me thinking about the other Rays starters, and I checked out their exLI along with innings pitched per game (IP/G) and average leverage index:

	2009 exLI	Avg IP/G	pLI
James Shields	1.42	6.6	0.91
Matt Garza	1.04	6.37	1.02
Andy Sonnastine	1.02	5.00	0.92
David Price	1.01	5.46	0.92
Jeff Niemann	1.35	6.41	0.91
Scott Kazmir	1.00	5.65	0.94

If I'm reading that correctly (higher number is higher leverage) it looks like Maddon is leaving Shields (and Niemann) out there a few batters too long. This piggybacks off of FreeZo's and Tommy's contention that the starters are left out there too long. Of course, the later in the game, the higher the leverage. I'd be interested to go game by game and see how often a SP was pulled after the leadoff batter reached base.

Back to Shields, his pitch type has changed somewhat drastically since 2006. He was a fastball/change up guy in 2006 primarily (54%/34.1%). Since his debut, he's seen his FB usage decrease every year to 43.4% in 2009, and what many refer to as his out pitch (the changeup) has decreased every year from 34.1% to 23.6%. The big beneficiary of this has been the cutter, up from .9% in 2006 to 17.9% this year.

Then there's the question "Is Shields becoming more hittable?"

Season	Team	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	Zone%	F-Strike%
2006	Devil Rays	24.40%	66.10%	45.40%	53.60%	85.00%	76.70%	50.50%	57.80%
2007	Devil Rays	27.00%	67.80%	48.50%	48.60%	88.50%	78.00%	52.70%	60.10%
2008	Rays	26.60%	66.70%	47.40%	55.10%	88.40%	79.40%	52.00%	58.60%
2009	Rays	27.70%	67.20%	48.10%	57.80%	88.30%	79.80%	51.80%	62.50%

He's inducing more swings (both in and out of the zone), but more contact is being made (out of the zone). Less strikeouts, more walks, more contact, generally not a good combo.

No idea what this means overall. The main points I wanted to show were change in pitch types corresponding with being hit harder, giving up more HR per FB, less strikeouts and more walks. I know we tend to harp on Hickey and his impact on the pitching staff, and lately Maddon has been under some heat. It leads me to this question. Has there been a philosophical change in what the Rays pitchers are being told in within the last 2-3 years? I know no player will truly hit his or the league's mean each year, but to see a regression, to some degree of our entire staff seems odd.

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More change-ups please.

by rglass44 on Sep 17, 2009 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Shields and Sonny have been cutter happy this year and it hasn't worked out.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Sep 17, 2009 1:29 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

Is this the white flag of surrender on Buc Em?

Or are you attempting to follow in Sandy’s footsteps as the Deion Sanders to his Bo Jackson?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Sep 17, 2009 1:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No surrender. Just figured I'd get beat up over here

as opposed to ignored over there.

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Sep 17, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So far I'm more like Drew Henson

Still getting caught up on the culture over there

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 17, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a lot of times Shields' has just had "tough luck" losses.

What I mean is, he has pitched well enough to maybe get 13-15 wins thus far this year but either the bats have gone silent or the bullpen sucked.

If you look at his break down you have:

game 1: vs Beckett (L)
game 2: vs A. Eaton (W)
game 3: vs B. Colon (W)
game 4: vs. F. Hernandez (L)- he gave up one run, a homer to Ichiro.
game 5: vs. F. Liriano (L, ND) – he pitched 6.2 gave up three runs but the rays only scored 3 total giving JP Howell the lose.
game 6: vs. B. Penny (W)
game 7: vs. B.Penny (L)- he gave up 5 run over 6 innings. Rays scored 3.
game 8: vs. F. Carmona (L)
game 9: vs. J. Outman (L, ND) – games pitched well, but Wheeler lost the game and Nelson put the game out of reach.
game 10: vs. J. Johnson (L, ND) – he gave up 4 over 6.2 but this was the 11 inning game where Shouse couldn’t shut the Marlins down.
game 11: vs. S. Baker (W)
game 12: vs. G. Meche (W)
game 13: vs. J. Weaver (L) – he gave up 4 runs, to were earned.
game 14 vs. R. Detwiler (W, ND)
game 15 vs. J. Santana (W)
game 16: vs. J. Johnson (W, ND)
game 17 : vs. R.Romero (L) – he gave up 5 run, 4 were earned, the Rays were shutout.
game 18: vs. M Rzepczynski (W, ND)- he gave up 1 earned run. Rays won it late.
game 19: vs. B. Anderson (L, ND) – he gave up 3, but Rays only scored 3 the whole game.
game 20: B. Bannister (W, ND)
game 21: vs. C. Torres (L, ND) James gave up 2 runs. But the bats could only score 3.
game 22: vs. A Burrnett (L) James gave up 5 runs over 5.1 innings. Rays lost 11-4.
game 23: vs. B. Bannister (L)- he gave up 2 runs over 7.1 innings.
game 24: vs. I. Snell (W)
game 25: vs. R Halladay (L) he gave up 5 runs over 8 innings. Rays only scored 2.
game 26: vs. B Matusz (L) he gave up 4 runs, 1 earned, but the bullpen couldn’t keep the O’s down.
game 27: vs. B Cecil (W)
game 28: vs. J. Washburn (W)
game 29: vs A. Galarraga (L, ND)- the bullpen blew this one.
game 30: vs J. Lester (L) – he gave up 3 earned over 6 innings. The Rays were shutout.

In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Sep 17, 2009 4:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks for the research on this

while W-L’s mean very little and Shields needs to revert back to his pre-09 pitching repertoire, he has certainly been stung by the being the #1 pitcher competition bee along with horrid run support. It kind of makes you wonder though, if it is random variance with Garza/Shield on the mound with the bad run support, or the player feeling more lax and taking at bats ‘less seriously’ knowing they only have to score 3-4 runs per to win.

the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009

by CubFanRaysaddict on Sep 18, 2009 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's not regressing back towards his rookie year, so to speak.

In his rookie season, his biggest problem was he relied far too much on his changeup and it became a pitch that batters would wait for; he was using it nearly 35% of the time, which is a ton. This year, he’s using his changeup the lowest amount he has in his career (23.6%), and is throwing his curve more (14.9%), which isn’t as good of a pitch. Nobody seems to know why he’s suddenly decided to go with more curves and less changeups, but the result has been fewer strikeouts, more walks, and more home runs.

If he was injured, then he’d probably stop throwing the pitch that causes him pain altogether; a la Scott Kazmir and his slider last year, so it’s got to be a decision making thing; Navarro is calling fewer changeups or more curves, Shields is shaking off the changeup in favor of the curve, or Hickey has spoken with both of them and instructed them to rely on the curveball more. Now obviously pitch selection isn’t going to help score runs for the Rays, and Shields has been a hard-lucker far too many times this year for my comfort, but at the same time, he’s worse this year then he was last year, and the change in pitch usage seems to be a solid indicator as to why that’s so.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Sep 17, 2009 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

you mean his curve right

cause as an amateur pitcher myself who has adopted his change up grip, that pitch results in zero stress above a fastball (at least on my arm), just asking as a point of clarification.

the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009

by CubFanRaysaddict on Sep 18, 2009 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I updated my workbook, here is where our pitchers are at, Shields has been around 16 wins for a while, Garza and Niemann have really come on of late

Pitcher FIP PROBw Starts Est. Wins
Shields TBR 4.27 55.7% 30 16.71
Garza TBR 4.33 56.4% 29 16.34
Niemann TBR 4.07 55.4% 27 14.96
Kazmir TBR 4.82 51.5% 20 10.31
Price TBR 5.63 49.2% 20 9.85
Sonnanstine TBR 6.12 41.0% 18 7.38
Davis TBR 4.13 55.5% 2 1.11
Team TBR 4.73 52.5% 146 76.66

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 17, 2009 5:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How is the offense credited to each pitcher calculated again?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Sep 17, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FIP for vs. FIP against

I’ll email you the workbook

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 18, 2009 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shields has been overperforming his expected strikeouts the past few years

This number is more in line with what I’d expect.

Plus he needs to throw his change more.

Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.

by matthan on Sep 21, 2009 3:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs