A Look At The Rays' Sean Rodriguez and Minor League Equivalency
by Tommy Rancel on Sep 2, 2009 12:00 PM EDT
Email
PrintA lot of people see Sean Rodriguez's gaudy stat line in Triple-A and think one of a three things: 1) This kid is a beast and he's going to mash. 2) This kid's numbers are inflated thanks to a hitter's friendly ball park a.k.a he's a product of his environment. 3) Wow, those are good numbers; probably a little too good, but I'll take it.
After reading most of the "various chatter" on the site over the past few days options 1 and 3 seem to be the most popular with just very few leaning towards option 2. Some believe that Rodriguez is 2009 Ben Zobrist with a latin twist while others see an average hitter with slightly above average pop. According to Minorleaguesplit's equivalency calculator, Option 3 seems to be the most reasonable option; at least at this point
This year he's hitting .301/.402/.622. With those numbers and that league/team selected, the calculator has him hitting this line with the Rays .233/.319./458 with 21 home runs and 14 doubles in 381 at-bats.
The good news is that even with the adjustments for parks/leagues, Rodriguez's power numbers look to hold true. In 2009, there are 23 players who are qualified as second basemen (Ben Zobrist included) who have amassed at least 380 plate appearances. Seven of them have a SLG% over .458. The numbers don't reflect much plate discipline and that is definitely a knock on Rodriguez, but plate discipline can be developed, and I'm sure the Rays are going to beat it into his head from the start.
Of course this is far from exact science. It's unrealistic to think that just cause the calculator spits out these numbers that he will live up (or down) to those numbers (although it would be nice in some cases). However, in addtion to the raw minor league numbers, the scouting reports, and more importantly seeing Sean Rodriguez, Sean John Rodriguez, SJR, S-Riddy, Puffy Rodriguez or (insert nickname here) in extended Major League action, hopefully this gives us a small glimpse of what we could expect.
107 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Looks like a copy and paste issue on the PCL numbers
I’ll try and have it fixed as soon as I can
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Sep 2, 2009 12:12 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Love the power.
I’d take it if he developed into a FTE of .260/.350/.450(+?) with the capability to hit 30 HR in the MI.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
I'm just curious as to where he will play and how the Rays will fit him in
This will be a very interesting offseason
We have a lot of guys that are ready for the bigs, or will be ready in short order. Something needs to give.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Not THAT many
Who’s knocking on the door? Joyce, Perez, Rodriguez, Davis, Hellickson, Jennings and Brignac.
- Joyce and Perez should replace Gross and Kapler. I don’t see anything too controversial here, except whether the team should offer arbitration to Gross. I’m personally against it (I’d rather have Joyce and Perez in the bigs from the get-go rather than risking needing to carry Gross on the roster for half a season while we try to find a trade suitor), but I wouldn’t be heartbroken if one of them starts in Durham, and they both have options left.
- Rodriguez shouldn’t be tough to get up there. He’ll take over utility duties.
- Brignac is an issue, but he still doesn’t necessarily look 100% ready, and Bartlett should have very high trade value this offseason. Chances are probably better than 50% that Barty gets traded to make room for Brignac and bring some good value in return, especially with a relatively weak SS free agent market. Bartlett’s probably better than anyone available on the free agent market other than Cabrera and maybe Tejada.
- Davis will have a spot; the question is whether it will be in the bullpen or in the rotation. Now that Kazmir has been traded, there can be a competition for the 5th starter spot.
- Hellickson could easily use another half year in AAA.
- Jennings could spend a full season in AAA if need be. He’ll take over whenever we lose Crawford, which will probably be at the end of next season at the absolute latest.
I guess I just don’t see the issues. Three guys are ‘blocked’, but two of them are blocked by guys with high trade value.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Sep 2, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
What about Aybars role?
Also you are just assuming that we keep CC.
Also Hellickson and Jennings could very well be ready soon. Sure they could use more time in AAA, but at some point we have to play to win Major League titles, not IL titles.
Either way you mentioned Bartlett getting moved, CC getting moved, and Rodriguez (and hence Aybar). Those are three pretty significant changes don’t you think? And that totally ignores Hellickson, who if he continues to dominate like this must be in the rotation by next ASB.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
The Rays haven't exactly been good at roster construction lately
Have you peaked at our bench? I’d like to keep Aybar and S Rod, but I don’t see that type of roster construction in Friedmans or Maddons history.
It would only be possible if we traded Bartlett. Which goes back to my point. Something has to give. SRod, Brignac, Aybar all play random infield spots….All need to be in the majors next year.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
We def should trade Barty and probably CC
But for people thinking we are going to keep Brignac, SRod, and Aybar….that is a massive dream. The chances of that are close to zero.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Wait... what?
You think if we trade Bartlett we still won’t keep all three of those guys up? Are you high?
No that isn't what I said
My post was that something has to give. That we have to trade someone. Then a bunch of people said that wasn’t the case. Then I mentioned Brignac/Aybar/SRod. It is not possible for us to keep Brignac/Aybar/SRod as well as Bartlett. We have to trade someone. AKA something has to give like I originally said.
Previous posters said we aren’t going to trade; yet somehow we were going to keep Brignac, Srod and Aybar. That is not possible to keep those 3 as well as Bartlett.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Well I guess within his post he mentioned that things have to give, but he prefaced it with that things don't have to give
Strange
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Something has to give, but it's not like we can't get value in return
I just don’t see it as being a problem. And even if they trade nobody, it’s still not a problem. Every single guy I mentioned above still has at least one option left.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
We can trade CC without too much pain
Either promote Jennings or keep a Gross/Perez platoon.
Aybar and Rodriguez can both be on the roster. I don’t see the issue there. We have too many pitchers on the major league roster. Backups = Rodriguez, Aybar, Perez, catcher
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Not forgetting that Zobrist can also fill in the OF if needed
With Rodriguez sliding in at 2B.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Big Rod can also play in the COF apparently
If we look at a bench of Aybar, Rod, C, Perez it is not so crazy. Briggy toils in the minors a little longer or starts in the event of a Bartlett trade (which I think has to come in the offseason). This considers Kap/Gross not being brought back and Joyce starting in RF. So you have Craw, Beej, Joyce across the OF with Longo, Briggy, Zobie, Pena around the horn. This, to me, seems ideal.
Embrace Eternity
From what we've seen of Zobrist at 2B, how can you move him?
He’s mashing and providing incredible defense….I feel like until he proves that the defense is a fluke, he’s got to stick at 2B. My guess is Bartlett gets moved and we have Brignac at SS for the beginning of next year with S-Rod doing the super-utility thing.
"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige
by Steve Slowinski on Sep 2, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions
Haha...yeah, sorry, I'm almost to the point where I can be around more.
Friggin’ summer camps taking me away. I’m almost there….
"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige
by Steve Slowinski on Sep 2, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm blaming you for the attendance last night
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
We need an article about the future of Bartlett.
I’m curious to know what the Rays’ choices are and what they should do. Personally, I think he’s a crucial element and we should keep him, even if it means more $$, but what else is factoring in the equation besides the presence of Brignac and Beckham?
I think we're saving that stuff for the off-season.
But, if a team like Kansas City overvalues him as being this good of a player when clearly he’s not, then you make that move. The assumption is they’re giving you prospects/players worth a 4-5 WAR player and he’s really a 2-3 WAR player who is getting paid as such now.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
That's not a trading partner that excites me.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
Bartlett for Jeter.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
Honestly I'd do that.
Think of the merchandise!
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Selling point: shorter commute
But your office is smaller than your home.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
I'm not actually suggesting trading with these teams.
I’m just listing teams that would likely overvalue him.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Also: if they said "Alex Gordon for Jason Bartlett"
Would you say no?
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably not.
But he is redundant, and he seems like he may never figure it out. He also only has one more year before he hits arb, so I’d rather have a package centered around the Hawaiin Punch.
Eh, he's already a league average major leaguer.
He’s not Longoria or Zimmerman, but you can do worse. Assuming they’re low on him, at least.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
He's LA at 3rd.
that isn’t an option for us. He doesn’t magically become LA at 1B or DH. That is the issue.
Generally, yes.
For the Rays, it pains me, but probably no. I do think Gordon at 3B will have a higher WAR than Barty at SS next year though.
What if they said "Mike Moustakas for Jason Bartlett"
when we went with KLAW’s idea and put him behind the dish.
Would you do it?
What you think all the guns is for? All purpose war, got the Rottweilers by the door. And I feed 'em gunpowder, so they can devour the criminals, tryin' to drop my decimals.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Sep 2, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not real high on Moustakas at this point.
When did KLAW argue he should catch? I’d love to see that.
He has suggested it multiple times in his chats.
IIRC, he said they didn’t want to do that because it would set him back from being ML ready.
I think he suggested it because he was not sold he could play a decent third base and his bat would become plus with a move behind the plate.
What you think all the guns is for? All purpose war, got the Rottweilers by the door. And I feed 'em gunpowder, so they can devour the criminals, tryin' to drop my decimals.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Sep 2, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Here is some of what KLAW said, I found this off some random blog on a quick google search.
Moustakas had an odd year, to say the least: He spent the first half of the season as an awful defensive shortstop who couldn’t hit a lick (but was young for his league), and the second half as an offensive machine who was sort of passable at third base.
Moustakas has a great swing, a smooth left-hander’s stroke with good plate coverage and hard line-drive contact. He has intermittent power; his swing doesn’t have great loft, and he needs to get his arms extended to really drive the ball, but it is in there when he gets the opportunity to use it. Physically, Moustakas offers no projection; he’s 6-0, around 200 pounds or slightly more, and already thickset, with below-average speed.
He was never going to stay at short, and he may not stay at third, where he was improved but still has a lot of work to do on reading balls and improving reaction times. It has been said before, by me and others, that Moustakas should be behind the plate. He has a 65-70 arm, has a catcher’s body, and caught a little bit in high school. The Royals have no catching prospects of note, and any questions about Moustakas’ power become irrelevant if he’s catching, because his bat will be plus back there at 15 homers a year or 30. As a catcher, he’d be top 20-25 overall.
What you think all the guns is for? All purpose war, got the Rottweilers by the door. And I feed 'em gunpowder, so they can devour the criminals, tryin' to drop my decimals.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Sep 2, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
.
HERE is the full list of his Jan. 09 Top 100.
What you think all the guns is for? All purpose war, got the Rottweilers by the door. And I feed 'em gunpowder, so they can devour the criminals, tryin' to drop my decimals.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Sep 2, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Drayton Moore is not smart.
Would a Bartlett for Moustakas trade even be something we’d want to do?
I like the idea of him in our organization learing how to catch.
What you think all the guns is for? All purpose war, got the Rottweilers by the door. And I feed 'em gunpowder, so they can devour the criminals, tryin' to drop my decimals.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Sep 2, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
If anyone says no to that, they're crazy. (From the Rays perspective.)
Bartlett had a huge early season. Otherwise, he’s been who we know he is. Good player. Not this good. If someone pays for that early season production, just say thank you.
Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.
I loooove me some Private Pyle
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
whoa on the 'presence' of Beckham. Bowling Green stats are a bit hidious and disappointing. I know he's young, but
40 errors, a 57% success rate stealing, triple digit strikeouts and a complete lack of power? He has a loooooong way to go before his presence has an impact on the big club’s thought process.
by ValricoBrian on Sep 2, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Take the average line and average age of the league into account please.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I take that into account. He was the first pick. I said I know he's young. My point is that to say his existence in the minors
is part of the FO’s thought process with regard to short stop decision is not valid, in my opinion. He also didn’t perform exceptionally well last year, either. I am not selling him, I am just saying that he is way to far removed from being a factor in St. Pete, at this point.
by ValricoBrian on Sep 2, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not disagreeing.
It just seemed like you were comparing his line to what you would expect from a major league shortstop, but you know better, so disregard my comment.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
definitely not comparing it to a ML shortstop. The things that concern me are the errors (somewhat expected for a
HS draftee at shortstop), and the lack of power and speed, with high strikeout totals. I don’t have scouting reports on him, but 13 out of 23 would indicate either not a lot of speed or not an understanding of how to read pitchers, etc. (no fix for speed, but fixes available for the stolen base methods, so I guess there is hope), high strikeout totals are also somewhat expected also from a HS draftee (he might impatient at the plate, given his high draft status). However, at that level, I would think there aren’t tons of pitchers droping breaking stuff and change ups on the black. Probably more FB ‘throwers", so again, lots of Ks is not comforting. The lack of power for so many ABs is also a concern. I didn’t think he was the second coming of Alex Rodriguez as far as shortstop power, but 5 HRs in 463 official ABs is anemic.
Nothing I am writing should be construed as thinking he is a bust. Just commenting on what his baseline statistics would tell me about how he is doing so far.
Don't let the lack of HRs confuse you.
He has shown power (as evidenced by his 2Bs), and that is a good sign. The errors are confounding, but Jeter (who is very sure-handed) had the same issues at that age. I think the CS issues are more sue to reading pitchers than anything as he’s improved in that regard as the year has gone on. The contact issues are the one thing that scare me going forward. He needs to be putting the ball in play to be truly effective given the unliklihood that he hits 20-25 HRs.
True re: doubles as a 'power' statistic, however, unless the Sally is full of Comerica dimension stadiums
(original Comerica), I don’t think 5 home runs in 450+ plate appearances demonstrates power. When I say power, I am thinking a 15 home run guy at that level at that age at that position.
It's all relative, though.
He’s second in the SAL for HR by a SS. He’s third in Iso. His Iso of .121 is quite a bit better than LA .074 by a SS. So he’s the second or third best hitting SS in the league behind 24 YO Mark Thompson and 22 YO Chase d’Arnaud. When looking at it that way, are his statistics not pretty good?
Not saying he is a bad hitting shortstop, or one that if he was a 22nd rounder would be out of a job.
And, I get the thought of comparing him to players who are several years older, makes his performance more palatable. However, saying someone is the third best hitting shortstop in the SAL, for a first pick in the draft, is not awe inspiring.
Basically, I agree he has not completely sucked so far. But, it is less than what I would have expected two years out of HS and in his first full year in pro ball for a first pick in the draft.
I also get the draft is a crap shoot, especially in the first round. Not near ready to give up on him. Just would prefer to see more yummy numbers and ratios.
Check Jeter as a 19 YO in SAL.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=jeter-001der
Beckham has way more power. Once again the K/BB is what concerns me more.
\
Agreed that I wish he was tearing the league up, but as an incredibley raw, toolsy HS this was to be somewhat expected. Maybe they should have given him another season in low A to make us happy…
I don't think you can make the Jeter comps
He made a huge leap to where he is now. I bet there are/were tons of players that were at Jeters numbers at Jeters age. How many of them became Jeter?
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
So?
I’m just saying knocking a player who’s tools get raves because of his numbers that are above average when he has ARL on his side may not be smart. (takes breath) Jeter is an example of this. Also a high draft pick out of HS that didn’t really have one tool that stuck out. Much like Beckham it’s the whole is greater than the parts thing. If he was a 1B who was hitting tons of homers with nothing else there wouldn’t be a concern. If he continues to be above-average with the stick at every level, improves his sure-handedness, and steals 15 bags he’s be a very good player.
It is massive survivorship bias
Thats all. Like I said how many players had a similar Jeter comp at this age that ended up not being great?
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
And?
How many minor-leaguers period turn into arguably one of the three greatest at their position. i was merely pointing out a reason not to be discouraged.
You are all over Buster Posey; how many minor league catchers look great then don’t do anything?
The issue is he played a full season at A-ball when he was 17/18.
Then advanced from there. His ARL is even more impressive.
Good point, Brian
I wasn’t necessarily saying that he’s going to be in the Rays lineup next year (or the year after or the year after or the year after), but he’s still THE future SS in the system with a couple of guys (namely Brignac) who could hold the position for years.
by ZBW on Sep 2, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
So basically
He’ll probably have the bat that people are hoping Reid Brignac will have long-term. Of course, he’s only 24 and has been improving on an annual basis, so his MLEs might be a little short of what he actually does in the bigs.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Cannot wait for that fanpost...
“TIM BECKHAM LOOKS LIKE HE DOESN’T CARE, WELL, HE ALWAYS LOOKS LIKE THAT.”
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
thats like "trade B.J. upton because hes lazy"
Over the Monster: an unofficial blog for Red Sox bandwagon "Fans"
God we should have drafted Posey
Beckham won’t be nearly as good and will take 4 extra years to reach the bigs.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
Well we should have
That was obvious a month before we made the pick.
When a team chooses between a few players those guys will be compared for awhile. It happens in every sport.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
He's quite possibly right though
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
And?
At the time the pick was up in the air. We trusted the scouts. We’ll see, but to claim we didn’t pick the clear-cut number 1 is wrong.
There wasn't a clear cut #1
That I agree on. Beckham was a legitimate pick, and any of him, Alvarez, Smoak or Posey would have been legitimate. But there was more than just a grumbling that Beckham wasn’t the best of those picks at the time, and he didn’t exactly have the pedigree of most of the high schoolers who have been #1 overall picks.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
My point being
that maybe the scouting department isn’t as good as we think they are. All we can really have is blind faith, but they’ve had some pretty massive misses up to this point (Butler, Kline, Washington, Diekroeger, etc.)
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
And that's not to take away credit for guys like Longoria and Jennings
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Yes
Maybe not as much Diekroeger, (because it sounded like a calculated gamble that they missed on) but 99.9% of the time, a non-sign is the scouting department’s fault.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I agree with this...
but to say it was clearly the wrong choice is a lie. Last year’s draft was different because there weren’t any elite talents. We took a chance, and we’ll see if it pays off.
OT: Mark Topkin said...
If the Rays dont have CC next season, their window has closed. My jaw hit the floor when I heard him say it. No link, heard it on local ESPN radio(which was my first mistake).
This is why we have no fans.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
It's almost as if we're trading Carl for nothing! Oh noes!
I think AF has shown us time and time again that we are in good hands.
Does anyone with a brain believe him when he flaps gums?
He’s a reporter, right? Stick to reporting what has happened and leave the fortune telling to gypsies.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd hard
Pretty much applicable to all sports reporters who think they’re analysts.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
ESPN always gets me with this when they want to be the first to break a story so they continually go on record too soon and muck it up
Just the facts, maam.
Embrace Eternity
So I compiled a list of videos of Sean Rodriguez for the interested...
http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200809253544163&c_id=ana (2-run double)
http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200809213522827&c_id=ana (3-run homer)
http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200809083441571&c_id=ana (solo rip)
http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200809023407346&c_id=ana (great catch from 2B)
http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200806012815431&c_id=ana (1st major league homer… destroyed)
I love his swing
He carries a big stick for sure, looked pretty quick chasing down the foul popper as well. I’m excited
Embrace Eternity
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Please read our Community Guidelines.
Related FanPosts on DRaysBay
Related FanShots on DRaysBay
![Zobrist wallpaper I made :]
Actual Link: http://i1207.photobucket.com/albums/bb472/lewiedesigns/Wallpapers/Zobristwallpaper.jpg](http://cdn1.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/237766/Zobristwallpaper_small.jpg)
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
DRB Suggestion Box
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
