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Around SBN: 2012 Africa Cup Of Nations Final

Wade Davis Promoted, Will Make Major League Debut Sunday

That was originally Sonnanstine's spot, and it will be against Edwin Jackson.

That per Lancaster.

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Yippie

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Sep 2, 2009 3:35 PM EDT reply actions  

I've just promoted my bowels to my shorts.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions  

We will still get them

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Sep 2, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

what about how Joyce < Ejax

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by raysfan81 on Sep 2, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

3 years of EJax < 6 years of Joyce

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Sep 2, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

ik i actually liked that deal

i think it made perfect sense

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by raysfan81 on Sep 2, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Question

Would we trade Upton for Ellsbury straight up?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 3:42 PM EDT reply actions  

Just curious to why

I have a mancrush on BJ so I wouldn’t either. But rationally I’d do it in a heartbeat.

I haven’t looked, but doesn’t Jacoby have less service time?

Jacoby is better on offense now

And defensively it is a wash.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jacoby isn't better than B.J.

He’s never had a 4 win season. B.J.’s had two.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Point 1 is the only one that is true.

They have the same career OPS, and Ellsburry came up later and plays in a hitters park. BJ is much better defensively. BJ is younger.

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

But again, it is about the future, not the past...

Jacoby is trending up, BJ trending down….

Also we all know that defensive metrics are a work in progress. Also if Jacoby played as shallow as BJ how good would he be? How about if BJ played where Jacoby plays? That is all managing (one good move by Maddon).

Ellsbury had a higher wOBA 2 of the 3 years they were both in the majors

Ellsbury had a higher wOBA at age 23 than Upton and at age 24.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Have you ever see Jacoby play?

His arm is terrible, his routes are worse than BJ’s, and I don’t think he’s as gifted at getting to balls.

Have you seen him hit? He’s on his way to being Juan Pierre. All he does is slap the ball and run.

BJ has upside. Ellsburry has none.

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is why I'm asking

We all know BJ has more talent than Ellsbury. The question is will he ever reach it? What is he going to perform like going forward.

So the question is are we going to see more 2008 and 2009 offensive Upton or a better version. If 2009 shows up I pawn BJ off without hesitation.

Obviously if BJ hits his peak he is one of the best players in the game.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

And he is trending downward

And your “best seasons” rely heavily on defensive numbers that are a work in progress before even taking into account Fenway and how shallow BJ plays.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Park adjusted offense.

B.J.‘s 2008 is 10 runs better than Ellsbury’s best.

As I said. No question.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

But what about what I said about defense.

How much do you think playing shallow helps BJ? Perhaps that is the cuase of the difference?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Perhaps, but I doubt it.

With Ellsburry’s arm he can’t afford to take chances. He really has no business in CF.

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

so you predict that BJ will get fixed?

What do you think his average offensive “value” will be on average in the next 3 yrs?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who knows?

Are you familliar w/ expected value?

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

So if you don't know then how can you have any opinion on whether to trade him?

That makes no sense to me. If you have no idea how he will perform then how can you have an opinion?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

You can't fix suck. I'd bet on the shoulder.

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Sep 2, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ceballos.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have an idea.

You think you have an idea.

What do you think the odds of the following are
hits like this year from now on?
hits like 08 from now on?
hits like 07-prior from now on?
has a huge breakout?
hits his way out of the league?

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

08-55%
07-25%
breakout-5% (well kind of like 07)
09-10%
worse than 09-5%

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

OK let's do an EV with those values....

If you do that and normalize the BRAA then you get an EV of 15.1 runs. This far exceeds Ellsburry’s best year.

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

A table:

Prediction Liklihood BRAA/150 Value
2007 25% 30 7.5
2008 55% 14 7.8
2009 10% -14 -1.4
Breakout 5% 50 2.5
Bust 5% -25 -1.3

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well I do think Upton will get better

I did say if he hit his talent he will be one of the best players in baseball.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly.

I’d bet over the next three seasons that his BRAA is 15 or higher on average (per 150 of course). Ellsburry won’t ever touch that.

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Probably so

But Upton also has a lot of downside risk

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes my estimate

I bet if you polled 500 baseball people on an average basis you will see that Upton has a much higher % of producing the -10 offensive seasons than Ellsbury. I’m sure he will have a higher % of the elite nature as well.

On a personal basis I think he will turn it around. I’m still not naive enough to think he may not.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why would I predict he wouldn't get fixed?

I’m not a swing mechanic. I’m not a doctor. I trust the Rays ability to fix players a lot more than I trust my ability to point out flaws in their mechanics or bodies.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sometimes players don't get fixed?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Trending downward with a seeming cause.

Do you think he just forgot how to hit? Ellsburry is not trending up, imo. He has peaked. He’s Juan Pierre.

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Big assumption

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is it?

He essentially “played his way into shape,” but never got there. Why would you assume his shoulder had nothing to do with his poor offensive year. I think that’s a much bigger assumption.

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well from what I can see it is mostly mechanical.

He starts his swing way too late. His bat speed isn’t there. He has to cheat big time to catch up to a pitch.

Perhaps that is because his shoulder is really weak. Nobody but insiders would know.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly

What else has happened though? Why else would he magically lose his swing?

They pressed him because Krapler was starting in CF, and it really hurt him this year.

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

This argument is going to last for 7 months.

Pace yourselves, everyone.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or it could be a mental issue

We really do not know. Which is why this is such an interesting question. The Rays are really going to have to make an accurate projection on Upton. He can be a -8 hitter going forward or a +10.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well offensive Ellsbury has been better. It is hard to project BJ as being a better offensive player

2 of 3 seasons they shared the majors Ellsbury > Upton

At comparable ML ages Ellsbury > Upton

Offensively. So you are relying your value on defense. Fair enough.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

No. I'm not a doctor, shrink, or hitting coach

BJ can range from the worst hitter Ive ever seen to one of the better. At this point he can be virtually anything.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

But recent history tells us he is a pathetic hitter

I’m just asking your opinion on where on the range he will fall. I just spiced it up asking whether you’d rather have Ellsbury. Clearly if you think he will regain it, you’d want Upton. If you think he won’t get much back then you’d rather have Ellsbury.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Are you seriously using one year of data here?

Aren’t you the same guy who moaned about small sample sizes?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

But that was when it fits his argument.

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Sep 2, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

He is sternfan with Excel skills.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Johnny Wentback?

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Sep 2, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right because I don't think BJ Upton will be magically better next year

For a site that likes to pride itself on rational discourse it is amazing how afraid people are of it when it has to do with our own players.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, but there are flaws in your argument and you're ignoring them.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

And your entire premise.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Like what?

Please speak. Honestly I think you have zero clue what we are even talking about. You probably still think Upton is performing like he was in 2007.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

One of the players in your comparison is working with a known injury during the data period.

TB would never trade BJ to Boston.

Premise and approach – fucked.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right....

Because TB would never trade him and now that he is hurt means we can’t discuss his future performance….

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Would never trade him to Boston.

Where the park plays a serious role offensively and for defensive outfielders.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right...

So hell that just stop talking about players we won’t ever trade. Whats the point right? I mean forget the fact that they are on our team and their performance makes a big deal on how our team performs. But hey, we aren’t trading them so lets imagine they don’t exist?

Great argument

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just keep typing, buddy.

You’ll careen into a thought one time.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right Mr. Lets not talk about a player because we won't trade him to Boston

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm talking about this very player in the OTTOTD thread.

You asked me why your premise was flawed. I told you. You’re ignoring it.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Where did you come to this conclusion?

He said we would never trade him to Boston. Although that’s not a 100% guarantee, it’s pretty fucking close.

by Suttree on Sep 2, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

This discussion had little to do with actually trading BJ for Ellsbury

It had far more to do with valuing Upton going forward.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sounds like it.

Question
Would we trade Upton for Ellsbury straight up?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED’s? K? Thanks
by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 12:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right

And I wanted to hear peoples reasoning on it. I curious with how people view Upton.

Clearly you don’t know enough to make a valuation. Fair enough.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's absolutely correct.

I don’t know whether he’s hurt. What sort of things he’s been doing to try and adjust his swing. I don’t know how his body handles serious injuries. I don’t know what he did in the off-season to get the shoulder recovered.

I know the pure result of his swing. That is not enough to make a fair valuation.

I know that, if we were to trade him now, it would be at an awful low. If we wait for him to come back – and he does – then there’s no point in trading him. So this conversation is, generally, a cesspool of ignorance.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I should say that

if he repeats this season, then I would be in favor of a trade.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

You mean the typos?

ELLSBUY??!?!?!

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

smooches, PB

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

That was intentional, I swear

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Sep 2, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Upton's not my player.

But I still think your approach is flawed and Upton > Ellsbury.

by Marc Normandin on Sep 2, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

What is my approach?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well...

Over reliance on small samples, for one. You say Ellsbury has been better than Upton in more seasons of his career, which isn’t really true since Ellsbury has about two seasons of PT total. Ellsbury gets a big boost on offense from Fenway, which is to doubles what The Cell or Citizen’s are to home runs.

As a Red Sox fan, I would make that trade in a heartbeat. Hell, I’d give you a prospect too just so you don’t realize how much of a mistake you’re making. As awful as Upton has been this year, in what is clearly his worst full season, he’s a win better than Ellsbury and just one win below Ellsbury’s best performance.

by Marc Normandin on Sep 2, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Jesus, keep your saddle on.

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Sep 2, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Did you read my posts?

I even said I wouldn’t trade Upton. I’m just trying to see who thinks he will get fixed. What is wrong with that? I hate to break it to you, but not everybody thinks Upton will get fixed.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thats fair

So your assumption is Upton gets fixed? At what level do you think he will perform at in the future?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

My assumption

Is that Upton doesn’t need to get fixed to be better than Ellsbury. If he performs exactly like this next year, and Ellsbury improves by a win defensively, then they are the same player value wise.

Given Upton has performed well in the past, and is a player with a lot of talent and ability, I think he’ll be able to rebound at least somewhat. He’s just not hitting liners right now like he should, and it’s helping keep his BABIP down. I think betting on that coming back in the future is a better idea than thinking he won’t be “fixed”.

by Marc Normandin on Sep 2, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

This goes back to my other point

Defensively how much do you think positioning (upton playing shallow)and park helps Upton and hurts Ellsbury? That could easily be a managerial decisions that impacts defensive value. If we want a true valuation wouldn’t we want to strip that out?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would think playing CF in Fenway would help his rating.

More chances to get to balls OOZ. I feel that if Boston though Ellsburry could play that shallow and it be beneficial they would.

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

No.

I want Ellsbury to stop taking routes that a blind outfielder would make fun of. Positioning has nothing to do with the lost look in his eyes every time a ball goes airborne. His speed is the reason he’s average and not a joke.

by Marc Normandin on Sep 2, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know you are a Boston fan, and I know some people seem to have gotten more on the compare Upton/Ellsbury train here

It is more about valuing Upton. I guess my point is really how much does playing shallow help Upton. Does this improve his UZR? Essentially I’m asking what his defensive rating would be under the average manager. Just like if the Rays wanted to acquire a new CF then they’d have to see what the players new defensive value givn the Rays defensive arrangement.

Basically I’m trying to get the players true defensive talent. Managerial positioning has to have an influece on their defensive value, correct? If it didn’t then why would the Rays position Upton shallow?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

As long as B.J.'s a Ray, he's playing shallow.

They’ll take away the OBP points and gamble on the SLG points saved.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's also used to the shallow end.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

RJ, I'm saying it is a good thing

My point is if we are going to compare players defensively, say for trade purposes, then we need to compare apples to apples. The same reason you park adjust and everything else. You need to adjust based upon positioning. Maddon would have Ellsbury play just as shallow as Upton (eg our backup CFers play shallow). What would his defense be under this alignment?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

They should just bust out a grid on the field.

Then they could just take pics of every caught ball. It would make it sweet!

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Okay by Maddon I meant the Rays

I’m sure the Rays determined playing shallow > playing deep. Therefore it makes sense valuing potential Rays CF on an apples to apples basis.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

At the end of the day, all centerfielders are measured on the same qualities.

And UZR reflects that – the ability to get to balls in the air and turn them into outs.

by Suttree on Sep 2, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Compared to the annual average.

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by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right

My point is if Player X played a deep CF and caught YYY balls then perhaps if he played Shallow he would have caught YYY + 20 balls. He is being unfairly punished by his organizations decision to play him deep.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not really, because what he gets

to in front of him should cost the average CF what gets down behind him. The point is that Beej can play shallow and still eat up deep balls except for the sure double. Almost no other CF can get away with that.

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Then say that

If you think no other player can play shallow as well as he plays deep then just say that. Why every else wants to talk trash or bring up irrelevant points is beyond me. I simply thought that other CFers would benefit by playing shallow. And more specifically I believe the Rays feel that ALL CFers benefit by playing shallow. My evidence is how players like Gabe Kapler play shallow.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kapler's first few starts we saw

him shallow, but after they started to smell toast out there he was moved further back.

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I remember that

I’m just curious on everyones responses.

I seem to be getting a mix of “deep or shallow doesn’t matter” and “The Rays have Upton play shallow cause he can get to more balls”. So I’m just trying to see the consensus. Does Upton playing shallow matter or does it not matter? If it does matter, then it stands to reason that playing shallow may help another CF out there.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I guess that is all we can do

I’m just afraid we aren’t comparing apples to apples. I don’t want the Rays to overrate Uptons defense. If other players can play a shallow CF better than their current deep CF numbers to close the defensive gap, then that could make replacing Upton a bit more possible.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Do you see anyone doing it better?

Perhaps comparably, but for 400k it seems like he’s peerless.

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

They want him to play shallow because he can get to balls deep that most CFers cannot.

If he were incapable of doing that, it would reflect in his UZR. If he were getting beat for doubles on a regular basis, no number of pop up singles he caught would change that.

Playing shallow doesn’t improve BJ’s defense, it’s merely taking advantage of his defense.

by Suttree on Sep 2, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

There are other fast centerfielders though

They do not play shallow. How would their UZRs be impacted if they played where Upton played?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's not all about speed.

B.J. seems to have good reaction skills that some CFers don’t have and decent tracking skills going back to the wall.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Take Juan Pierre and Ellsbury for example.

They take retarded angles, but they’re as fast, if not faster than BJ.

by Suttree on Sep 2, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Suttree, you are missing the point

I’m not saying BJ is playing in the wrong spot. I am saying he is playing in the right spot.

What I am saying is that there may be centerfielders out there playing in the wrong spot. They may be playing deeper than what they should. My point is very clear. If we are going to compare defense, then it needs to be apples to apples. Looking at a players defensive value when they play deep CF will NOT give us the best indication of how they will play if they were used like we do in Tampa. We have to adjust their numbers to reflect the shallow play.

For example if Player X is a 6 defender playing deep CF on an NL team and Upton is a 10 defender playing shallow CF on the Rays then what would they be if they were normalized? People here say “Upton is a 10 d and player x is a 6 so Upton is better”. I’m saying we have to adjust Player X to a new value if he played shallow or Upton to if he played deep. Then we’d be comparing apples to apples.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I definitely think it is more difficult

However I think potentially great CFs that currently play deep are being penalized that they aren’t allowed to play shallow.

I disagree about noise though. There is a reason Upton is playing shallow. If it was just noise then he’d be playing CF the more traditional way

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

You can't make this argument

There is no way of knowing if another guy would benefit by playing more shallow. Over a large enough sample all of this evens out. 2 years of Defensive data = 1 year of hitting data.

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Then why do the Rays have Upton play shallow?

If it makes no difference I don’t see why they’d be different for the sake of being different.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I said there is no way of

knowing another guy. Without hit f/x you have to go purely off your eyesight. I watch Beej every day. I don’t have time to watch the other 29 guys night in and night out.

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Speaking of which

Why don’t you update your GIDP post I found yesterday? Would be nice to compare this year to last.

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lazy

No BP subscription anymore too.

Maybe I’ll dust it off….

by rglass44 on Sep 2, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think you should

I’ll front page it

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

But if the 6 guy is making more plays in front

and missing more plays behind then he is still a 6 defender.

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, there's a few reasons he may play shallow

Is he better going back on the ball then he is coming in? Does the pitching staff tend to allow a lot more balls in shallow center than deep? Is he just confident enough in his speed and reaction time going backward that he can help his pitching staff by cutting off singles (or holding runners, if the ball lands) by playing shallow? The manager wouldn’t use him like that if he weren’t capable of playing there, no?

by Marc Normandin on Sep 2, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Those are all fair reasons

Maddon seems to play all center fielders shallow. So it stands to reason if we acquired a new one he would play shallow as well. BJ obviously plays an elite defensive CF.

So you are saying playing shallow is beneficial on a case by case basis. Which CFers in the league would you say would benefit by playing as shallow as BJ?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you really want to find out, why don't you do the research yourself?

No one here knows how many CFers play shallow compared to CFers that play deeper.

by Suttree on Sep 2, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm just discussing the possibility. I guess the way I see it is I think some of you are using BA to say a player is better, where I'm just saying BA sucks. I'm too lazy to develop something new

I’m not saying UZR sucks. I’m saying if two managers position their players in vastly different manners then that has to be reflected. If nobody wants to do the work then we should just ignore BJs defensive numbers. Or at least make a disclaimer that it is partially due to the Rays organizational brilliance. And then put a disclaimer on players that could be playing shallow that their UZR isn’t as good because of their organization idiocy.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

This why I said noise.

There’s so many different factors involved trying to determine whether or not BJ Upton’s UZR is a product of his alignment. You have to account for the other team’s hitting ability, the kind of pitchers we have, et cetera… eventually you just run yourself ragged.

Here’s what I’ll say: Similarly talented Adam Jones put up a 0.9 UZR playing shallow, so if playing shallow is (in matthan’s theory) giving a boost to a player’s UZR, why doesn’t Adam Jones see a similar effect?

by Suttree on Sep 2, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well what is Jones' UZR playing deep?

My evidence is that the Rays play every CF shallow. They obvously know something.

Just like RJ, I trust the Rays.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

For example if Jones' deep UZR is -1 then it would clearly be better for him to play shallow

I’m not saying playing shallow makes a player elite. I’m saying we should compare apples to apples.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

UZR is not a comment on a player in a vacuum.

It’s a weighted measure against a player’s positional peers. BJ and Gutz are making everyone else look horrible.

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure how this goes against my point that other CFers may be able to get to more balls if they were properly positioned

UZR assumes that each player is properly positioned given his talent level. That is not the case. The managerial variable exists.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not to mention BJ still has room to grow as an outfielder.

Ellsbury as a weaker arm, so BJ’s always going to have a leg up on him. Even if Ellsbury’s route running improves to their point where their range is comparable, BJ will continue to be a better outfielder.

by Suttree on Sep 2, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or when it makes intelligent sense to do so

I mean we can use 5th grade math if it makes it easier for you

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow you make NO sense

A second ago you bash me because I am weighting 2009 heavily in my projections causing a small sample size.

And now you are saying that a serious shoulder injury will impact the next few seasons.

Which is it?

Make up your mind before you post.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

...HOW ARE THOSE TWO THINGS CONFLICTING?

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Sep 2, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

I weighted 2009 heavily because of the shoulder injury. Clearly I thought it would have an impact on the future

You said that was bad to do.

Then you turn around and say a shoulder injury will impact the next few seasons

So let me ask you again, which is it? Is the shoulder injury going to impact the future or not? If so, wouldn’t it make sense to weight the time period with the injury a bit more than the time period without it?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Problem: He suffered the injury in '08, had surgery in the offseason, and hasn't really rested it for any period of time.

I probably shouldn’t have said ‘few seasons’

This will be his first offseason with no surgery and full rest since the injury..

Those two things are not conflicting.

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Sep 2, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I probably wouldn't try, honestly.

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Sep 2, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well quite clearly something fundamentally changed

Treating his 06-07-08-09 like they were under the same conditions wouldn’t really be smart, would it?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Then why bring up sample size

They are either under the same conditions or they aren’t…

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seriously man?

We should weigh 2009 more than 2008 and 2008 more than 2007. We should not weigh 2009 and only 2009.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

And who said I am just weighing 2009 and 2008?

And you cannot just weigh based upon time. Injuries is another variable.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

All injuries are different

So that would be impossible. Like I asked P Brady, how would you weight his previous years in terms of predicting future perf?

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

So ...
And you cannot just weigh based upon time. Injuries is another variable.
All injuries are different

So that would be impossible

If we can’t weigh them, how the hell can YOU weigh them? Oh, right, by your subjective means.

Meanwhile I’ve wasted my last 10 minutes finding hitters with labrum injuries to compare and see if there’s any weight to them not hitting well in year n+1, but whatever.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well I suppose you can find similar injuries and figure it out that way

You mentioned injuries as a whole which would be impossible. If you broke it down it could be a fair exercise.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

You mentioned injuries as a whole.

I just repeated what you said.

I asked had you done research to find out how much to weigh them. Otherwise, rather than half-assing it, we shouldn’t attempt to weigh them at all.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Common sense says injuries should have an impact

What you are essentially saying is if Evan Longoria gets hurt in spring training next year that we shouldn’t take that into account projecting his 2010 performance? We both know that is absurd.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Um.

I never said you can’t adjust forecasts, but I’m saying you seem to be placing a ton of emphasis on 2009 and the injury for no reason other than hyperbole.

You don’t know what’s wrong, but you seem to think there’s a decent chance of him not being fixed. This is leading you to write off 2007/2008 almost entirely — from what it seems like anyways — for one year.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

In summary:

1. Yes you can adjust if you have historical data.
2. If you don’t have 1, you are doing nothing but guesswork.
3. If 2, then just don’t do it all.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

So do we have 1 or do we not have 1?

It just seems I am placing more weight on 2009 than you are due to his injury.

I’m a bit confused. Can we adjust forecasts when there is an injury? I brought up the Longo ST injury. Would we be able to adjust his 2010 forecast or not? If not then would you seriously project him, given the same confidence levels, to produce at levels prior to the injury? I don’t see how you can in good faith do that.

I know that may be redundant, but I just want to be clear on whether you think we can adjust forecasts based on injuries.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

What kind of injury?

Players go through minor injuries all the time. We’ve adjusted for those because it happens every year.

If Longoria suffers a major injury, then obviously you adjust, but minor ones? I don’t think you’d have to adjust much at all.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

An injury likes Uptons

Severe, but able to play through

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like how the words Jacoby Ellsbury were never brought up here

and then he had 2 magical catches last night and all of a sudden it seems like him and Beej are equal. Also, I thought this was about Wade Davis, judging from the title.

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ellsbury is a natural comparison

He does play on our chief rival.

Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks

by matthan on Sep 2, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

If I had anything to do with this I sincerely apologize

Yesterday, I wrote that BJ wouldn’t have caught either ball that Ellsbury caught in last night’s game. If that comment gave rise to this thread than I am sorry, and will forever more keep my BJ opinions to myself. Ok, probably not, but I am sorry.

by terp12 on Sep 2, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm glad you stated that they are opinions

As I stated last night, Beej gets the second one and I’d say 50/50 on the first.

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

How much better?

based on UZR or whatever stat is used, how much better is he?

by sternfan1 on Sep 2, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's a trap.

You don’t want a guy that looks scared to run hard on defense, takes terrible routes, and counters all he does with the bat with his glove. Even if he rebounds from last year, or you average his three years of defensive data, he’s average or a little better. Upton’s got way more upside, and Ellsbury has the benefit of Fenway Park. The BA are about the same, but Fenway’s doubles charity helps him a lot with SLG.

by Marc Normandin on Sep 2, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

You think people get worked up about EJax?

Wait and see what would happen if BJ gets moved on somewhere and has 2007/2008 type years, or better. I believe a fully healthy offseason combined with some mechanical work will put him back on the track he was on 2 years ago.

by spidurfan on Sep 2, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

0 ERA and zero loss or bust

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Sep 2, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not having an extensive minor league knowledge base

what should we know about WD? What are fair expectations/comparisons at this stage?

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Sep 2, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Vs Detroitat home I am a bit more optimistic. Overall yes

Pitchers have also have a slight tendency to fairbetter in their debut than their debut season

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Sep 2, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't

I think i know what to expect

If he gives us 5 IP, i’m happy, but i’m so tired of these soft tossers who work with men on base every inning

by sternfan1 on Sep 2, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is he a "soft tosser"?

Thought he threw mid 90’s?

www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer

by Buc Wild on Sep 2, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's talking about Sonny, JP, Nelson, Wheeler...

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.

by PlayOnWords on Sep 2, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not expecting Koufax but nice to see him get his feet wet

1. James Shields 2. Wade Davis 3. Matt Garza 4. David Price 5. Jeff Niemann

by joeybw on Sep 2, 2009 4:10 PM EDT reply actions  

haha

Over the Monster: an unofficial blog for Red Sox bandwagon "Fans"

by raysfan81 on Sep 2, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

EVERYTHING TURNS INTO A BJ THREAD

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Sep 2, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

DRB version of Godwin's law

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Sep 2, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Used to be Sonny/Edwin

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Sep 2, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

/Peaks his head in...slowly backs out

"Typical negro, laying down on the job." -R.J. Anderson

by steve-o1285 on Sep 2, 2009 4:47 PM EDT reply actions  

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