The Curious Case of Dan Wheeler: HR/uBB > 1

by FreeZorilla on Sep 23, 2009 12:00 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

The Curious Case of Dan Wheeler

Dan Wheeler is on pace to join a very exclusive club this season. In the past 20 years there have only been four American League relievers with a minimum of 50 innings pitched who have allowed more home runs than walks in an individual season. The bad news is that Wheeler has allowed 11 Home Runs in only 55 innings pitched. The good news is that he has a strikeout to unintentional walk ratio of 5.9. Coupled with a BABIP of .203, it is clear Dan Wheeler does not allow a lot of base runners. BABIPs that low are pretty fluky, but Dan Wheeler finished 2008 at .202. Wheels has managed to increase his fly ball % year/year from 54.1% to 55.8%. Fly balls that do not leave the park result in outs far more than any other batted ball type. Now the 13.8% line drive rate is probably not sustainable.

So who is Wheeler's company in this club. It's a mixed bag for sure:

	HR/uBB	HR/9	K/9	uBB/9	FB%	BABIP
2003 Mike Timlin	1.83	1.2	7.0	0.6	28.50%	0.279
1991 Dennis Eckersley	1.83	1.3	10.3	0.7	N/A	0.278
2009 Dan Wheeler	1.57	1.8	6.7	1.1	55.80%	0.203
2003 Julio Mateo	1.17	1.5	7.5	1.3	51.40%	0.244
2008 Joel Peralta	1.07	2.6	6.5	2.4	47.60%	0.271

Timlin walked 2.82/9 for his career so 2003 represented a real outlier in terms of command. His home run rate was victimized by a HR/FB rate north of 15%.

Eck was a stud and a stud. No batted ball data was available but his 1.3 HR/9 broke a string of 7 years of sub-1 HR/9. His 14.7 K/BB ratio was quite nice.

Mateo ‘s season was probably the most similar to Wheeler's. Both are low walk-high fly ball pitchers. If you regress Wheeler and Mateo's HR totals to 10% HR/FB, Mateo would have allowed 1.35 HR/9 and Wheeler 1.42 HR/9.

Peralta is an interesting member of the club only because its shocking that a pitcher can give up 2.6 HR/9, have a BABIP of .271, and a 2.6 uBB/9 and make it all the way to the 50 inning requirement.

We have learned Dan Wheeler will give up home runs. He's probably not the safest option to protect a 1 run lead or hold a tied game. I have long railed against bringing him with runners on base. However, he does not allow base runners via walk or hit and is an excellent option for holding 2-3 run leads without working into a multi-run jam.

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Based on the other four, it's hard to draw a conclusion

by sternfan1 on Sep 23, 2009 12:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No conclusion to be drawn, just a rare feat.

Wheels should be evaluated on his own but a 41-7 K/uBB is awesome. My stance on Wheels has been constant, good reliever who should be used to start innings preferably with a 2-3 run lead late in games.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 23, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd agree to that

by sternfan1 on Sep 23, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dan Wheeler has shown a consistency to completely lay waste to all that is happy in Raysland.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Sep 23, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How many games would he actually get into if that were the criteria?

If he needs a 2-3 run lead to be trusted with the game is he really the right guy?

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 23, 2009 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

plenty?

How many closer appearances have 2-3 run leads?

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 23, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good question

I have no idea how to find out. Do you?

We have a losing record in one run games. You are advocating that it is a managerial/bullpen usage problem. I would agree with that too, but I think if Wheeler can’t be trusted to hold a slim lead once in a while, get someone else.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 23, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Once in awhile sure

But hes solid as a pens #3 reliever which is how I view him. I trust him the most on the team to protect a 2 run lead, but not a 1.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 23, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, by the way WE ARE WINNING!

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 23, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

WIth runners on in high lev spots I prefer Balfour or Howell

To start an inning Wheels. If none have been used if the lead is 2 or greater in 9th WHeels. If 1 run, JP.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 23, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2009 has been a weird season for these types of individual accomplishments

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Sep 23, 2009 12:28 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

The conclusion is that Dan Wheeler should have started quite a few more innings than he did

Playing merry go round with relievers with men on base is a scary situation

Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.

by matthan on Sep 23, 2009 9:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs