Rays and Vlad would make me glad

by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 23, 2009 4:39 PM EDT

The Rays have a few holes to fill this offseason (see catcher and bullpen) but there may be something to consider if this offseason is another product of reduced prices thanks to the economy. These are the years the Rays need to excel in free agency. They can get talent for prices they couldn't even have touched a few years ago and soon enough will probably not be able to touch again. One such talent is Vladimir Guerrero.

Guerrero may be in the final stages of his career but his bat still has a few years left on it. Coming off an injury-shortened season, and in this economy and with his once good defense taken away by age, he's only going to be viewed as a DH, and is only going to make a portion of his previous year's salary. There already is a platform to go off of who is on his team: Bobby Abreu

Like Abreu, Guerrero has been a model of consistency, aiming for his 13th consecutive season of .300. 11 of his past 12 seasons he has had no fewer than 25 HRs (this injury-shortened season being the only season with less). This marks only the second time in 12 years he will end up with less than 500 AB. And in his entire career he's never reached the 100 strikeout plateau (highest was 95, but never more than 77 in last 8 years), an attractive feature to a team with a lot of swing and misses.

If the Rays could acquire him for Abreu-money (of 2008 not what he'll get this offseason), it's an option worth pursuing. The roadblock obviously is where does he fit in the Rays lineup. It would be nice if he could play in the outfield once in a while, but with the turf, that would appear likely.

The only scenario where this plays out is at DH. This would happen only if the Rays could trade Burrell. I may be completely wrong, but I wonder if it still is possible, provided the Rays pay a good portion of his salary. Would a team be willing to pick him up (without giving up anything of real value in return) if the Rays paid half his salary and kept Burrell's incoming cost to say, 4 million? I wonder if a team would view that as a buy-low opportunity.

If it were even possible to trade Burrell, the 4-5 mil of savings would come close to paying for Guerrero. In essence it wouldn't cost them any more than the overall cost of Burrell. But I'm guessing this still is just wishful thinking.

Either way, I wouldn't push it past Maddon to find a way to pair back up with Guerrero in St. Pete. If at that price, it is indeed worth considering.

Are there any others out there that might be 'good deals' in this economy, worth the Rays considering? Jermaine Dye is another who might fit that bill, although there are now questions as to how much he can still play in the field.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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"Wholes"

Stopped reading.

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Sep 23, 2009 4:43 PM EDT reply actions

sorry i'm retarded

made the change.

by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 23, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

May I have your autograph?

I’ve never met someone who is perfect and has never made a mistake.

by GatorSphere on Sep 24, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

His ISO is his lowest since 1998 and his walk rate is a career low.

He’s a slightly above league average hitter this year and given his age I don’t see him rebounding too strongly moving forward.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 23, 2009 4:44 PM EDT reply actions

i'll give him the benefit of the doubt with the injury

Eventually he’ll have to hang ’em up, but his walk levels are pretty good outside of this year. It may be worth the gamble, but then again, maybe not.

by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 23, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Not a fan

I’m not a fan of Vladdy going forward. You wouldn’t want to be stuck with him if he collapses further, given his age and downward trends.

by Marc Normandin on Sep 23, 2009 4:49 PM EDT reply actions

a one year deal is still possible

no long term commitment needed. But if Dye doesn’t suit your fancy what about someone like Dye? Great first half, poor second half.

by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 23, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

*but if Vlad doesn't suit your fancy

sorry i can’t type today.

by raysfaninminnesota on Sep 23, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't like him either, but only because I see no reason to get rid of Burrell.

Trading Burrell because of one bad year and banking on any other player for a one-year deal doesn’t seem to make any sense. I refuse to believe that Burrell magically can’t hit lefties anymore. He still has a higher OBP against lefties then righties, and his power and contact numbers against righties are similar to his 3 year average (OBP is about 30pts lower, but still around .320). This really just looks like a crappy year for Burrell, not the standard to expect going forward.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Sep 23, 2009 6:14 PM EDT reply actions

co-sign

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 23, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions

So the Rays should spend ~$5 million to fix a problem I'm saying they don't have?

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Sep 24, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm agreeing with everything that you said

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 24, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh. So this is your "Seacrest, OUT"

Stop trying to invent internet slang.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Sep 24, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions

To endorse

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/cosign

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 24, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions

this

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Sep 24, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions

I like the thought...

Who doesn’t want Vlad in the middle of their lineup? But facts are facts: he’s currently a 1.0 WAR player, doesn’t really bring much to the table defensively (if he can still play the outfield at all), and has walked all of 18 times this year. To put that in perspective, he is currently sporting a 4.8% BB%, which is well below his career line of 8.9%. To make things worse, he is clearly trending down in that department – 11% in 2007, 8.6% in 2008, and this year he is also showing other poor signs – his ISO this year stands at .172, which is well below his career line of .248, and his wOBA has reached a career low at .349.

In comparison, Burrell sported a .152 ISO this year but did walk in 12.6% of his plate appearances, which is still below his astounding 14.6% career BB%. His wOBA was slightly lower at a paltry .317, but keep in mind that Burrell switched leagues (the hard way: NL to AL) and had to become accustomed to AL East pitching as well as playing the DH role. If you expect Burrell to produce another 2009-type slash line next year, I think you’d be mistaken: he is not used to failure and I don’t think a guy with his skills, power, size, and plate discipline (as evidenced in Philly) is going to be OK with hitting singles and sitting on the bench. Also: his xBABIP, if you follow that sort of thing, was 30.8%, while his actual BABIP was .288. I think the most significant thing when you look at his stats is the O-Swing/O-Contact percentages: this year he has been swinging at more pitches out of the zone than ever (22.7%), but connecting with only 55% of them. In other words, there’s your strike outs. I think time and familiarity, along with perhaps some better offseason conditioning, will fix Burrell and make him a legitimate DH for the team.

Even if you don’t think Burrell can bounce back, though, I don’t really see how Vlad offers a significant upgrade over Burrell, especially when you consider his potential cost, injury concerns, similar lack of defensive prowess, age, and horrid plate discipline.

Now Bradley… we can talk about that.

by elijahdukes on Sep 24, 2009 10:33 AM EDT reply actions