The 2009 DRB Awards: The Scott Kazmir Memorial Award
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 24, 2009 6:00 AM EDT
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PrintAlso known as: the best starting pitcher on staff.
This one should be a lot more difficult to choose.
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What's comical is how much everyone jumped all over him early on.
People said he couldnt go more than 5 innings and after his first start in Baltimore, we were looking to ship him away. Things didnt turn out so bad.
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I’m disappointed that Niemann is killing Shields by so much.
by Erik Hahmann on Sep 24, 2009 9:46 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Shields has been down some but he’s still been the most valuable starter.
by Erik Hahmann on Sep 24, 2009 9:58 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If I had to pick for 2010, I'd go with Shields
This is reflective. Thats a big tRA gap. id on’t expect Niemann to equal this years success. Nonetheless, he did what he did.
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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
WAR is a counting stat. He hasn't been the best pitcher.
Although IP are important too and if you want to argue that his durability is the reason you put him over Niemann and Garza I can very much buy that. But on an inning to inning basis, he’s been our 3rd best pitcher.
Tools Whore
Shields should not be the #1 SP for 2010
that should go to Garza for several reasons
On the whole yes, Shields was more volatile
Also, can’t blame Niemann for having a few starts skipped
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Pretty much
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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Assuming relatively similar amounts of playing time (at any position)
would the higher WAR indicate the move valuable or better player (for that year)?
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Also, does WAR figure spot in rotation?
or is it just Wins above replacement pitcher?
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Unfortunately
And this sums up this season pretty well – I felt that we had the best chance of winning a game when Jeff was on the mound. Thus, he gets the vote.
Hopefully, he’s a dominate #5 starter for us next year.
Because the offense obviously likes him more.
by Erik Hahmann on Sep 24, 2009 10:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
FIP and tRA know not what the offense produced
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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
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by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Sep 24, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
If it helps make your decision here is my estimated wins
by FIP:
Pitcher FIP PROBw Starts Est. Wins
Shields 4.27 55.7% 30 16.71
Garza 4.33 56.4% 29 16.34
Niemann 4.07 55.4% 27 14.96
Kazmir 4.82 51.5% 20 10.31
Price 5.63 49.2% 20 9.85
Sonnanstine 6.12 41.0% 18 7.38
Davis 4.13 55.5% 2 1.11
Team 4.73 52.5% 146 76.66
And I’ve started doing this by wOBA as well:
Pitcher wOBA PROBw Starts Est. Wins
Garza 0.310 59.6% 29 17.29
Shields 0.330 52.8% 30 15.84
Niemann 0.323 55.2% 27 14.91
Price 0.341 55.9% 20 11.18
Kazmir 0.348 50.5% 20 10.10
Sonnanstine 0.392 41.8% 18 7.52
Davis 0.285 65.3% 3 1.96
Team 0.335 53.6% 147 78.80
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PROBw
I assume this is win probability?
How is it calculated? Garza’s PROBw is higher than both Shields, Niemann and Davis even though all three have a lower FIP than Garza.
Check out the links it will take you to a google doc showing all the formulas and everything else
It’s basically offensive FIP (or woBA) vs. our starters FIP (or wOBA). It gives a threshold to show winning percentage at a given FIP (or wOBA) level on a team-by-team basis. Basically it normalizes your offense so that someone like Shields or Garza that didn’t get as much run support can be compared to someone with a ton of run support (i.e. Niemann). As you can see, Niems came out very well. If you look at his game-to-game FIP he is either great, good, or bad, but never awful.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 24, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I just realized I didn't directly answer your last question
He has more start-to-start variation than the other two. You will see it under the pitchers tab of the workbook. Underneath their boxed data is the standard deviation. The FIP in the summary sheet is the average of their start-to-start FIP. Garza gets penalized for having two double-digit FIP starts where Niemann and Shields don’t get that high. Basically, (and this is what started the workbooks was a look at what would be more valuable a guy that goes out and gives you a, say, 4.25 FIP every game or a guy that can dominate any given day, but is more prone to take a beating) Shields (and Niemann to a greater extent) are more likely to give you consistently good starts while Garza is more likely to give you a great start, but you run the risk of getting one of his clunkers.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 24, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Ohhhhh
I see what you did now. Thats pretty interesting! Both Garza and Niemann have 5 starts above a 90% PROBw Garza just has more 60 to 80% range.
Its interesting to see Sonny with 3 starts above 90%.
I’d like to know which starts from Kaz and Price were guaranteed wins.
If you go to baseball-reference and gamelogs for each player, it shouldn't be too hard to match up the component figures
to find the right starts.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 24, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Shields has 3 extra starts resulting in a less than 1 expected win advantage
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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
These aren't updated for about the last week or so, but yeah, Garza, Price, Niemann, and Davis have pitched
really well over the last month or so. Shields best run was mid-season and hasn’t been as good of late.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 24, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
That picture makes me sick.
He just looks terrible in Red. At least I have a team to cheer for in the playoffs though.
It's close
I’ll go with Shields, but starting in 2010 and the near future, I’m taking Garza. He still has the largest upside on the staff.
Hello.
I agree with sternfan on this one
Garza #1, Shields, Price, Davis, Niemann
Garza always performs better when he’s facing a tough opposing pitcher.
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