How will Zobrist Fare Following the 7 Win WAR?

by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 2:00 PM EDT Comment 51 comments

Ben Zobrist is about to accomplish something that only 28 other players have done since 2002, complete a 7+ WAR (Wins Above Replacement) season. Zorilla is the only Ray to accomplish this feat. The big question is what this means for Zobrist's future. The first, and least likely possibility is to have future 7+ Win Seasons. This is an elite club consisting of the following 9 players:

Player	Years 7+ WAR
Albert Pujols	7
Alex Rodriguez	4
Chase Utley	4
Barry Bonds	3
Scott Rolen	3
Andruw Jones	2
Chipper Jones	2
David Wright	2
Hanley Ramirez	2

Clearly this is a difficult feat. So the next question is how big a drop-off can be expected? If we look at the 20 players who have achieved a single 7+ WAR season-to-date, how did they respond in the following year? In the case of players who achieved their 7+ WAR season after 30 years of age, we will use how they fared in the preceding year.

Name	Batting	WAR	Year	Year Before	Year After
Ben Zobrist	34	7.4	2009		?
Grady Sizemore	35.6	7.5	2006		5.8
Curtis Granderson	36.4	7.4	2007		3.8
Bret Boone	38.6	7.3	2003	3.8
Jorge Posada	43	7.1	2007	4.7
Carlos Beltran	44.4	7	2006		4.9
Matt Holliday	49.9	7.9	2007		6.2
Manny Ramirez	51.3	7.3	2003	6
Vladimir Guerrero	51.7	7.7	2002		4
Joe Mauer	54	7.7	2009	5.7**
Adrian Beltre	55.3	10	2004		2.5
J.D. Drew	55.4	8.3	2004		2.9
Jim Edmonds	56.4	8.1	2004	6.4
Gary Sheffield	60.1	7.4	2003	4.4
Ryan Howard	60.6	7	2006		4.3
Magglio Ordonez	61	8.9	2007	2.4
Brian Giles	63.2	7.5	2002		4.9*
Jason Giambi	65.5	7.3	2002		5*
Derrek Lee	66.4	7.4	2005	2.9
Jim Thome	68.3	7.2	2002		4.8*

*Used the year after b/c no WAR available for 2001

**Used the year before b/c 2010 has not occurred

This gives the preceding/followup season of one-time 7+ Win seasons a distribution of:

2 WAR	4
3 WAR	1
4 WAR	7
5 WAR	3
6 WAR	3

The player with the lowest amount of Wins derived from offense seem to settle in nicely in the 4 Win range with limited volatility. Zobrist has the lowest amount of offensive runs on the list.

One final note, of all the players who have achieved a 7+ WAR season, Zo seems to have the most in common with Chase Utley.

Name	Batting	Fielding	Replacement	Positional	WAR
Chase Utley	32.4	19	20.9	1.5	7.4	2005
Chase Utley	44.2	15.7	20.4	1.9	8	2007
Chase Utley	45.3	10.6	21.7	2.3	8	2009
Chase Utley	34.6	20.5	23.6	2.3	8.1	2008
Ben Zobrist	34	22.3	18.6	-0.8	7.4	2009

If Zo can maintain excellent defense at 2B in the range of 10<x<20, a 4.5-5.5 win season seems like anice starting point for expectations.

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Nice work FreeZo

I would think we will take a 4-5 win season, but I would like to see more of the early season power throughout the year while maintaining the elite defense. If he is handed the 2B job next year he should do just as well considering he will only need one glove and only need to work one position full time.

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 24, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd love to see him hit lead off

this is where i feel his power, speed and OBP can be fully utilized

Bartlett still doesn’t draw enough BB for me, and power numbers might be a one time deal

by sternfan1 on Sep 24, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lead off? Really?

I don’t see that as a legitimate possibility, or even a reasonably good idea.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 24, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its a great idea

Switch Hitter, Sees pitches, High OBP, moderate speed
Slugging is a bonus

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zo, CC, Longo, Los, PTB,Joyce,BJ, C, Barty

by sternfan1 on Sep 24, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've never liked batting one of your best hitters last.

Of course, he may not be a Ray next year anyway.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 24, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, no Zobrist is leading off in that lineup.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 24, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, I will go with the flow

When do you guys think Jennings, Briggy, and Rodriguez will be up and impact that lineup? I’ve been around here long enough to know there are a lot of ifs in that lineup. Jennings looks like a young Vince Coleman with that speed.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 24, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree just based on how he works a count and gets himself on.

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 24, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is there a site where you can see how players performed before and after a specific date?

If Zobrist’s power numbers fall off a bit for next year, do you think it could significantly impact his BB and overall OBP? I would like to see his walks before and after the All Star break. I don’t know if there was any difference or if he has been consistent in BB all season.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 24, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

baseball-reference.com

2nd half he unintentionally walked 14.94% OF plate appearances
1st half he uBBed 15.4%

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=zobribe01&year=2009&t=b#half

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 24, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you both.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 24, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if you're only going to use one cite, that's it

by sternfan1 on Sep 24, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Best 4

1. Fangraphs
2. BRef
3. Statcorner
4. Hardballtimes

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you again.

I was on Fangraphs but didn’t get how to split the season to a specific date. I think I get it now.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 24, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you have to use teams or leaders

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wipe your chin

by sternfan1 on Sep 24, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'd think having Zo lead off would help this team score 1st inning runs, and the team scoring 1st wins more than they lose

by sternfan1 on Sep 24, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He has the same skill set we had come to expect from BJ

THe plan to move BJ to lead off was correct. Sadly, it did not work out well.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hopefully, we don't attempt that feat again

bat BJ 7th till he gets his confidence back

by sternfan1 on Sep 24, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except Zobrist's walk-up song is horrid.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 24, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

only one that has a nice tune and understandable words

by sternfan1 on Sep 24, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But it sounds so oh so sweet late in games

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is it a Christian ballad?

I notice they don’t keep it playing as long as others.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 24, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zo and S-Rod are bound to be roomates

by sternfan1 on Sep 24, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't think they have roommates in MLB.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Sep 24, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps in the off-season.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 24, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

its his wife, and yes

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hard to get pumped up to that.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 24, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its a Pavovian effect

If good results follow it, he could walk up to Boy George- The Crying Game and it would start to sound good

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

*Pavlovian

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fantastic.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 24, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well . . .

It seems to work for Zobrist, and that is really all that matters for Zobrist’s walk-up song.

by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Sep 24, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have you seen his wife? I'd get pumped to her music if I was married to that.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Sep 24, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was waiting for that reply

As a fan though, that music comes on, and I don’t get psyched. Most of the reply comments were based on the player’s motivation. I thought walk up songs were as much for the fans.

The real question after your reply is, “are you married”? Because, if you are, you better delete your response and make sure there is no trace of it left in existence anywhere.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 24, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He actually did it one game this year. I see him as a Sizemore type lead off

Good power, ability to steal and get on base

by sternfan1 on Sep 24, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with this

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Sep 24, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice read

I agree with Sandy. I doubt there will be any defensive drop, maybe even a slight improvement. I also doubt there will be a significant change in BA or OBP. The question that I think is on everyone’s mind is SLG% and HR. I don’t see him leading the league in SLG% but somewhere in between pre and post all star break would be very nice.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 24, 2009 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd put money on a UZR decline

Its silly high this year

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah 22 is a bit much, but 15 would be outstanding

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 24, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

22.9 UZR/150 @ 2B

Aybar is the anti-Zo -22.9

Theres only been 3 seasons of +20 UZR/150 out of second basemen with 500 innings min. 2nd highest season for fielder next to name

Aaron Hill 5.3
Mark Ellis 9.2
Rey Sanchez 15.5

10 may be a more realistic goal

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you figure there's a win if he loses another one with the stick he's still almost a 5.5 WAR player.

Yay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 24, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is a big OT but i thought important

This girl is the daughter of a guy who posts on an Indian forum and who i e-mail. He’s been through hell and back this past year with her. Two nights ago she had the surgery, 11 1/2 hours involving 64 pints of blood. Today she is stable. When all said and done it’ll cost near $500k. Keep them in your thoughts. Thanks

http://cota.donorpages.com/PatientOnlineDonation/COTAforMarieP/

by sternfan1 on Sep 24, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't playing multiple positions inflate the fielding component of WAR?

But the best part is that I don’t see a big decline in his numbers, not 7 WAR, but 4-5 @ 2B would be great, and he’s got that nifty OBP which just doesn’t go away like his HR power can sometimes.

Longoria should be crossing 7 WAR soon. he’s @ about 6.9 now

by Transplanted on Sep 24, 2009 5:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think its his positional adjustment is a weighted average

Hes played OF very well too. 385 innings with UZR/150 of 19.4

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then what produces the highest WAR total for the rays

S-Rod at 2nd, Zobrist in RF, or Joyce in RF with Zo at 2nd? I know we have very positive UZR data for Joyce at a COF spot and only average production in a mediocre sample with S-ROD so that will probably skew the answer towards Joyce, but if CC is moved in the off-season I would not mind seeing Joyce in LF, SRod at 2nd, and Zob in RF until Deezy is ready.

the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009

by CubFanRaysaddict on Sep 24, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd consider a dual platoon with Zo swinging between 2b and RF

Joyce in RF vs righties, SRod @ 2b vs lefties.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 24, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

makes sense

But if we think Joyce is a full time player in the near future that will obviously hinder him. I mentioned this on another thread, but if Arizona doesn’t tender a contract to Connor Jackson or if he can be had on the cheap, moving him around 1B and RF vs LHP would be another great scenario.

the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009

by CubFanRaysaddict on Sep 24, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Regarding his fielding

It seems rather specious to call him a 10<x<15 fielder based on a 700 inning sample this year. His performance at shortstop in a larger sample size is slightly negative, and there is only a 5 run gap for the positional adjustment.

by vivaelpujols on Sep 24, 2009 8:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs