What Did The Rays Lose By Replacing Scott Kazmir with Wade Davis?

by Tommy Rancel on Sep 28, 2009 6:00 AM EDT Comment 28 comments

In terms of on the field production I would say that answer is nothing. There are many that feel that the Scott Kazmir trade had an emotional effect on the team, but unless you know of a way to equate emotions into wins that argument is not one worth having since there is no answer. However, we do have the numbers on Scott Kazmir and his successor Wade Davis. Sure, Andy Sonnanstine made the first start in Kazmir's place, but Davis has since taken that spot and looks poised to carry the torch into 2010.

Scott Kazmir has been very good since going to the Angels. He has not only kept up his post DL form, but has improved in terms of home runs allowed and walks given up. If a team is looking for a pitching coach this off-season (Rays?) I don't know how Rick Peterson isn't the first guy getting that call. The good news for the Rays is Wade Davis has been just as good and even better in some categories.

	IP	FIP	tRA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	WAR
Kazmir w/Angels	31.1	2.99	3.01	6.61	2.59	0.29	0.269	1
Davis	24.1	2.31	3.54	10.36	2.96	0.37	0.319	1

Of course small sample size rules apply here, but Wade Davis has held his own against the LA version of Scott Kazmir. In terms of WAR they are dead even. Davis's FIP is over a half run better thanks to a wonderful K/9 and just one home run allowed. Kazmir's FIP also benefits by one home run allowed in his 31 innings of work, but his K/9 has dropped from 7.38 with the Rays to 6.61 with the Angels. The good news for Angels fans is his walks have also dropped (nearly 1.5 per nine) and his average velocity is up to 92.3. It looks good for Mike Butcher, who was Kaz's pitching coach in 2006, but not so good for Jim Hickey, who is now regarded by many as the butcher of the current Rays staff.

Kazmir has the better tRA thanks to a line drive rate of 18.3% which is right in the neighborhood of his career total. Davis has a LD% of 29% in his first four starts. That obviously wouldn't last over the course of a larger sample size nor would his low LOB% which stands at 56.4% compared to the 80.4% Kazmir has with the Angels. Kazmir has also benefited from a lower than normal BABIP, while some would say Davis has been a smidge unlucky, but not much.

There are plenty of reasons for the Rays September swoon: Offense, Bullpen, fatigue, but swapping Scott Kazmir for Wade Davis in the rotation was not one of them.

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While i have no problem with the process used in trading Kaz, the timing

coincidental or factual, seemed to disrupt this team. As for the deal, only time will tell

by sternfan1 on Sep 28, 2009 7:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

These guys are pros.

If theyw ant to blame their shitty play after the deal on the deal, then they’re a bunch of pussies. I doubt that’s the case, but it isn’t like somebody killed their puppy. The FO made a deal. The players didn’t hold up their end of the deal.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

Representin' the West Side of Mulberry!

by SeanDubbs on Sep 28, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://imgur.com/UMLFW.gif

by ZBW on Sep 28, 2009 10:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We all talk about Kaz, Edwin Jackson and Jason Hammel

and their sucess after leaving the Rays and Hickey,but let’s not forget Trevor Miller. He has pitched 67 innings with a 2.14 ERA and a 4/1 so/bb.
also it looks like all four of them will be pitching in the post season

by gjsor on Sep 28, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Trever Miller has not been an abberation.

He’s been effective against Lefties, as you would expect a LOOGY to be, and ineffective against righties, as you would expect a LOOGY to be. He hasn’t gotten any better going to St. Louis. Nobody’s forgetting him.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Sep 28, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So why did we add Shouse and a difference of over $1 million dollars?

by sternfan1 on Sep 28, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He gets to pitch in the NLC

versus the ALE, which is helpful.

by Transplanted on Sep 28, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, they lost 10 of 12

right after the trade if I remember correctly. I find it very hard to believe this was just a coincidence.

by Devil Ray on Sep 28, 2009 11:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Your bullpen still shouldn't melt down

on what was a near daily basis, Kaz could’ve been injured, same thing almost, still gotta close out those games.

by Transplanted on Sep 28, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

its hard to stay motivated

to perform at the highest level when you get the sense management has given up. its not the same as if Kaz was injured. it would be like going into work one day and finding out your company was starting to lay off people in preparation for filing for bankruptcy. would you keep busting your ass, knowing that performance will have nothing to do with whether you get to keep your job, or would you spend your time looking for a better place to work?

by Devil Ray on Sep 28, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

would you keep busting your ass, knowing that performance will have nothing to do with whether you get to keep your job, or would you spend your time looking for a better place to work?

But his performance sucked. His ERA was 6 when he got traded. Hell, they should have thought “thank God that black hole is out of the rotation.”

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What is this ERA you speak of?

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 28, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then they are pussies.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why do you find it hard to believe

that it was a coincidence? The whole point about coincidence is that it appears to be a result of purpose or cause/effect. That is what makes it a coincidence. I bet you can find dozens of other factors that occurred just before the losing streak; would you find it hard to believe those were actual links rather than coincidences?

For example, in the game just before the 11 game losing streak, Maddon used 6 relievers to get just 7 outs. Would you find it hard to believe it was just a coincidence that a losing streak that featured almost nightly bullpen meltdowns occurred immediately after?

Or what about the fact that the last 7 games of that streak came after Pena’s injury, and in those 7 games the Rays never scored more than 2 runs in any game and 0 or 1 in five of them? Might that be something you could believe is more than coincidence and was more significant than the trade of Kazmir?

Or perhaps we could check the temperature during the losing streak and chalk that up to something other than a coincidental relationship to the losses if we discover some regularity. Or should we assume that the last two night’s comebacks indicate the players have gotten over the sense of giving up? Or that the Rays players lack guts, thus accounting for the swoon late in the year? How many other factors might we adduce that some superstition might consider more than coincidental? Should we check astrology? Or the content of Zobrist’s prayers? Or the number of letters in the names of pitchers who shut down our offense?

by bobr on Sep 28, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs