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Where Does James Shields Pitch Within the Zone?

I'm not sure where this will go or what it accomplishes, but I was fooling around with some pitchfx data and created this. Well, let me explain it before showing you. I took all of James Shields pitches within the normalized strike zone against right-handed batters and broke it into nine segments. I then found the frequency of pitches in each respective zone. What's shown below is a visual box with the percentages - note: this is not full season data, it's missing a few starts, and this is only for pitches within the strike zone, not necessarily strikes.

<--Inside/Middle/Outside-->

Shields1_medium

This is from the catcher's perspective, so Shields rarely challenges righties up and in; under  7% of the time. He does prefer working in the middle/down part of the zones, which makes sense given his stuff. His avoidance of the inner-half of the plate makes sense too. Not often do you see same-handed pitchers challenging batters with their change-ups. I guess what's most striking is the nearly equal distribution. I'll have to check some other pitches to see how Shields compares in spreading pitches out, but I think this is a better method than spray charts of thousands of pitches.

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I'm thinking of different variations of this.

This seems more like a mixture of command/game theory, maybe one where I show his whiffs by zone or something?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 11:49 AM EDT reply actions  

Seems like a lot right down the middle.

Might explain his foundness for gopher-balls.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions  

I don't know, I talked with a scout about it.

Obviously the cardinal sin is throwing a pitch down the middle, but for game theory purposes, you have to go there some times.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes.

It’s like going within the strike zone to a free swinger. Yeah, you can throw pitches outside all the time, but eventually a coach will tell him to stop swinging at all.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Inside the strike-zone and right down the middle are different beasts.

I could see 10 or 12% there, but unless you are constantly behind in the count there’s no reason to live down the middle.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

The count itself doesn't matter.

I’m just saying; there are situations where, if the batter isn’t looking for it, a pitch down the middle makes sense. Whether it be 0-0, 1-0, 2-2, whatever.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

It does.

I need to run Halladay, Lincecum, ect. through the mix and see how often they throw it down the middle.

Maybe it’s a stuff thing. If your pitch breaks a ton, you can throw it so it ends up over the middle.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sounds good.

From this one graph it seems high, but it may not be compared to others. It would help explaining why he’s homer prone for as good as he is.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

True

I would think a guy with a good overhand curve can pound the middle more.

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 28, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I doubt it makes sense that often though.

Think about the linear weight of a pitch at each location. Throwing one right down the middle (especially w/o overpowering stuff) seems like a bad decision.

You have to weigh the cost of the batter swinging if it’s down the middle too.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

16% might be too much.

But I think 5% or whatever is too low. Not that you gave that number, just saying there’s middle ground.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

There is a time for a get-me-over type pitch, but not taht often.

What’s his strike%?

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can't imagine it does.

Given how 95% of the starting pitcher population regress to the 9-12% HR/FB range.

But who knows. Maybe for batters? It’s like the inverse relationship between fastballs and ISO.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

There's always that other 5%

who just may have an elevated amount of pitches over the heart.

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 28, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Curious what lg avg down the middle would be vs each pitcher on staff

I’m guessing lg avg would be a ton of work?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Sep 28, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd have to ask Dave Allen or Harry Pavlidis for league average.

Heck, I might ask them anyways. They’re gurus at slicing and buckets. I wish I could do heat maps.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good stuff.

Heat maps are easy if you can teach yourself R

by RaysTheRoof on Sep 28, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just to see where he misses most often

My guess is he is generally down in the zone or to the right due to his change, but he doesn’t throw it as much as he used to so who knows. I bet this took a long time, but if you found a quick way to look at it, any chance you could just repeat the exercise for the 2006-08 as well?

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 28, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

If people are interested.

Also: Excel’s “between” function is a lifesaver.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

You just used the Tabled Data and then used between for all the functions?

Yeah when I discovered conditional formulas it made my pitcher workbooks a million percent easier.

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 28, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

You could jsut do a formula that "plots" it...

I.e. If it’s between the x is between two markers it comes up “right.” That might make it easier to do big pools of data.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

=if(x>5,(if(x<10,“middle”,“right”),“left”)

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

In words:

If x is less than 0, it’s “out.” If It’s >0 and >15 it’s out. If it’s between 0-5, it’s left. If it’s between 5-10 it’s middle. Etc.

If you tell me the bounds and the cell reference, I can just write the formula.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I understand what it means.

I just meant it’s a lot of information when it’s just listed.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah....

It’s a lot easier to write them than read them.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmmm

Mine isn’t normalized for the strikezone (I guess you added that), so I can’t just write it.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't.

The normalized strike zone is going to be included in the three boundaries.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Okay, look.

Look at the px and pz columns. You see all those numbers? To get that down to upper right, middle, ect. you need to limit your zones to the normalized strike zone, which is:

x -1 through 1
y 3.5 through 1.5

That limits it to pitches within those zones. From there you just divide that into nine zones.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

OK

Let me look at it again.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

OK here is the formula for Right, middle, left on px

=IF(Z3<-1,“out”,(IF(Z3>1,“out”,(IF(Z3<-0.3,“left”,(IF(Z3>0.3,“right,”“middle”)))))))

I used -.3 and .3 as the bounds for middle.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here is up/middle/down

=IF(AA3<1.5,“out”,(IF(AA3>3.5,“out”,(IF(AA3<2,“down”,(IF(AA3>2.5,“up”,“middle”)))))))

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Huh..

Nifty!

I’ll try it out in a few minutes, writing a few emails.

Thanks.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Welcome.

From there it should be easy to do pivot-tables to make the chart. You can even take every pitch thrown by every pitcher (or the ones you have) and use pivots to filter the % by pitcher…

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

OK

Highlight the entire spreadsheet and goto data<pivot table<finish.

You’ve now built a pivot table. These are great for quickly summarizing data.

If you have all your pitches plotted, put “location” along the left-side and “pitches-thrown” in the middle. This will count all the pitches thrown in each bin.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

from here you can do a vaiety of different things...

For instance, along the top I put the “event.” This showed me how many of each occurance happened by spot.

The start that I grabbed (7/18/09) Shields threw 8 of 105 middle-middle resulting in 1 2B, 1 LO, 1 1B, and 2 Ks.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is this solely 2009 and if so

How does it compare to 2007 & 2008? Maybe this pitch distribution explains why a lot of hitters are swing first pitch fastball this year.

by Transplanted on Sep 28, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Only 2009.

I’d have to pull the data for the other years.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

also

Did you do the fix I mentioned up higher?

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

So this is the formula?

=IF(Z2<-1,“out”,(IF(Z2>1,“out”,(IF(Z2<-0.3,“left”,(IF(Z2>0.3,“right”,“middle”)))))))

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Try this...

put a “1” somewhere on the sheet, copy it, then highlight all the numbers in the column and right click. Do a paste special with values clicked and multiply clicked.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Some cool idea

If you added a “linear weight” column for each event, then yu could do a pivot that averages linear weight by location.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 1:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Do you have numbers for last year?

I would guess that it could be an interesting comparison as well. I like this article.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Okay, Niemann has thrown

1,793 pitches within the normalized zone.
178 have been middle-middle
That’s ~10%.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 2:14 PM EDT reply actions  

G, u Wake guys shur r smrt

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

789 pitches in the zone

Left/middle: 45
Left/down: 22
Left/up: 147

So, I think we know where Niemann likes to attack righties…

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

179 middle/up

84 middle/middle
39 middle/down

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

134 right/up

84 right/middle
55 right/down

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Niemann sure has a lot of pitches up

Might be partially explained by dropping the curve in for a strike

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 28, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kind of strange don't you think?

I wouldn’t think outer half up is a logical place for most pitchers.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe that's why he attacks it: because nobody else does.

Also, I’m not sure. I mean, maybe up and in is the best spot, but people don’t because if you miss, then you might give up a homer.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

More! More!

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Middle-middle as a % of pitches in-zone

Niemann 11.27%
Price 12.14%
Shields 11.74%
Sonnanstine 12.30%

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions  

OK

Did you change the parameters I was using?

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmmm....

Why is my number for Shields way lower?

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

See below.

Also I did Middle-middle pitches/total pitches WITHIN THE ZONE *100, I did not take it as a total of all pitches.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I did that too.

My pivot excludes any with “out.”

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

For me this is one of the most interesting things I've seen here

So, Niemann concentrates in the upper third of the zone. Good for K’s but usually leads to HRs. Which is strange, because that hasn’t happened so much.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions  

This could be an awesome offseason project....

We could take these and do the linear weights by location. We could split by pitch-type….. ZOMG!

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions  

pitch_type left-down left-middle left-up middle-down middle-middle middle-up right-down right-middle right-up
CH 4.17% 4.40% 1.72% 5.26% 3.37% 0.62% 0.00% 3.36% 0.00%
CU 9.72% 9.43% 13.22% 20.00% 17.42% 10.56% 18.75% 19.33% 7.85%
FA 1.39% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
FF 75.00% 79.25% 79.31% 67.37% 69.66% 76.09% 60.42% 58.82% 81.15%
FS 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
FT 4.17% 1.26% 1.44% 1.05% 0.56% 0.62% 2.08% 0.00% 0.00%
SL 5.56% 5.66% 4.31% 6.32% 8.99% 11.80% 18.75% 18.49% 10.99%
Grand Total 72 159 348 95 178 322 96 119 191

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Whiff-rate on middle-middle

Pitcher Whiff-rate
Niemann 5.06%
Price 9.86%
Shields 6.58%
Sonnanstine 11.22%
Grand Total 7.41%

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 2:38 PM EDT reply actions  

that is amazing

most pitches in middle/middle yet highest whiff rate

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by FreeZorilla on Sep 28, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

I meant Sonny leading the pack.

I really expected the opposite to be true.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

Like his curve is great when down, but up it’s weak. (example)

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Isn't that pretty much a given, curve up bad, curve down good

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes

Unless they don’t swing at it….

Like if he throws a “get-me-over” curve. That was my example, though, I wonder how well it would hold up looking at the numbers. We all remember seeing high, loopy curves that get hammered, but I wonder what the numbers say.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

It actually kind of makes sense.

Sonny’s entire reputation is based upon having mediocre stuff and dancing around the strike zone. With that kind of reputation, slotting 2-seamers down the middle would seem effective, especially since his 2-seamer isn’t that bad at all.

by Suttree on Sep 28, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

What is this shit?

I don’t see anything about Wins and ERA.

by Suttree on Sep 28, 2009 2:38 PM EDT reply actions  

The early assumption in this thread was that middle middle was the worst

Maybe some pitchers can work it as RJ said.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions  

RJ WANTS MY BABIES!

BREAKTHROUGH TODAY! I ACTUALLY WANT TO POST THINGS AGAIN!

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 2:43 PM EDT reply actions  

How we'd have to do it...

We could make a “result” column which would say swinging-strike, called-strike, line-drive (or 2B), etc. Then use linear weights for each.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 2:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Whiff-rate on the cutter for Sonny by location:

left-down 0.00%
left-middle 4.76%
left-up 5.81%
middle-down 0.00%
middle-middle 10.81%
middle-out 10.71%
middle-up 7.50%
right-down 0.00%
right-middle 4.17%
right-up 6.78%

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 2:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Sonny, all pitch-types:

left-down 7.69%
left-middle 3.06%
left-up 6.02%
middle-down 3.64%
middle-middle 11.22%
middle-out 9.41%
middle-up 7.81%
right-down 15.52%
right-middle 4.17%
right-up 7.41%

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Overall or just against righties?

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

It kind of makes a difference

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

yup, just righties, all pitches

left-down 10.53%
left-middle 0.00%
left-up 5.08%
middle-down 0.00%
middle-middle 14.29%
middle-out 10.81%
middle-up 13.11%
right-down 17.65%
right-middle 3.85%
right-up 9.80%

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

just righties, just cutters

left-down 0.00%
left-middle 0.00%
left-up 10.71%
middle-down 0.00%
middle-middle 9.09%
middle-out 15.38%
middle-up 14.29%
right-down 0.00%
right-middle 0.00%
right-up 8.11%

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is like getting into the pitcher's heads

Or once you add the hits seeing exactly where they are missing and on what pitch. Very cool

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Shields HR/P% by location against RHB

left-down 0.00%
left-middle 1.92%
left-up 1.20%
middle-down 0.00%
middle-middle 4.23%
middle-out 1.61%
middle-up 2.78%
right-down 3.45%
right-middle 1.45%
right-up 3.96%

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 3:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Makes sense

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

so middle-middle is the worst, but...

right-down and right-up are almost as bad. He isn’t that much more likely to give up a homer right down the middle.

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

w/o middle-out (no idea how that got there)

left-down 0.00%
left-middle 1.92%
left-up 1.20%
middle-down 0.00%
middle-middle 4.23%
middle-up 2.78%
right-down 3.45%
right-middle 1.45%
right-up 3.96%

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Get a smart kid around 16 years old

My 14 year old is smart enough to do it.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

He said no, but I still think if you need someone a H.S. kid would do it.

Ask a H.S. math teacher.

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

CALL PLK NOW!!!!

Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz

by SRQman on Sep 28, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

D**ks

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup

I almost applied to do an unpaid internship at BP in college.

You should try to get some through FG…

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah.

I don’t even know what they do.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought I recalled something about that...

I imagine they do the stuff for the stat-pages not writers’ bitches.

Imagine having a database with the pitch fx for every pitch ever….

splooge

by rglass44 on Sep 28, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

This would be excellent.

I’ve been meaning to try your method for data collection, just haven’t gotten around it.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

this thread = awesome

I’m really excited to see what you all smart people are able to do with this.

by behn on Sep 28, 2009 3:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Good stuff as always guys

quick question though. I know the Rays have their own statistician (always forget his name, apologies) but do you think players get shown raw data like this? Or is the process more like the stat guy relays this to Friedman, Maddon, or whoever and they just tell the player “stop throwing up and in so much”? I would guess it would be through the manager or pitching coach, so maybe this is a dumb question, but I was just wondering if anyone knew how this process usually went.

by BJ the Bossman on Sep 28, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions  

The Rays have a handful of guys.

James Click and Josh Kalk being the most well known. Click is more of a logistics guy while Kalk is the pitchfx master. As far as I know, Kalk does submit tidbits to Maddon and the coaches. Plus the Rays have stat guys like Neander and Bendix who put forth information.

Do players get shown it? Not sure, do they get told through other means? I think so.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 28, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ok thanks

thats what I figured I was just kind of wondering how this info gets relayed. Again awesome work man. Really cool to be able to be a casual fan and still get access to this stuff because of you all’s hard work.

by BJ the Bossman on Sep 28, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Basically Kalk works on something for 20-30 hours which he hands to Hickey

After leaving Hickey cracks open a beer and throws it away.

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 28, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very very good article and subsequent posts

It was fun, and I’m anticipating some really great future articles. You guys take shit about being stat guys, but I think everyone will see a lot of benefit from this information. Thank you

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 28, 2009 4:51 PM EDT reply actions  

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