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The Only Change in Sonnanstine's Gameplan: His Change

H/T to RaysParty for the handy 2008 season data.

Star-divide

First, the pitch types and Gameday-reported velocities:

Velo 2008 2009
FA 86.9 87
FC 87.2 86.7
SL 80.3 82.3
CV 73.6 75.3
CH 81.8 82.1

 

FC stands for cutter, CV for curve, and so on. There's minimal change: his slider and curve went slower last year, no idea why or if it was/is a conscious effort. Now his swinging strike rates per pitch.

Year Pitches SwStr %
2008 1246 95 7.62
2009 1653 113 6.84

 

This is overall, I tried syncing up the amount of pitchers pretty evenly -- using half of Sonnanstine's starts from last year -- but it didn't work out quite to a 1:1 ratio.

Year FA SwStr %
2008 391 11 2.81
2009 225 12 5.33

 

Sonny had more swinging strikes in ~170 less non-cutter fastballs this year. Last year the pitch was extremely hittable.

Year FC SwStr %
2008 298 14 4.7
2009 650 37 5.69

 

Notice the increased usage in his cutter? It came with more whiffs too. I'm not sure what to think of his reliance on it quite yet.

Year CV SwStr %
2008 291 47 16.15
2009 327 31 9.48

 

Say what you want about his overall arsenal, but very, very few pitches can be thrown 300 times in a season and whiffed at more than 15% of the time. Sonny's curveball is easily his best pitch. Easily.

Year SL SwStr %
2008 127 11 8.66
2009 406 31 7.64

 

His slider might be his second best pitch. Increased usage, decreased whiff rate.

Year CH SwStr %
2008 137 12 8.76
2009 33 1 3.03

 

Here's the mystery. His change-up would be the only non-two-seamer pitch that runs towards righties, yet he dumped it. This after the buzz about a "new and improved" version of the pitch in spring. Why did he dump it? FanGraphs run values weren't too kind to the pitch, but those are defensive dependant. My inner scout chirps about dumping a presumably somewhat deceptive pitch. Maybe it was a confidence thing.

Now, let's look at where Sonnanstine is throwing the baseball within the zone versus last year.

Sonny1_medium

Notice much of a difference? Yeah, there doesn't appear to be one. Some slight percentage changes on the right side, but otherwise Sonny's locational gameplan appears to be the same. How about against right-handed batters though?

Sonny2_medium

Again, some minimal shifting.

I may end up digging deeper into the location bag -- say, by pitch, maybe by count, etc. -- but for now, there's not a lot of smoke coming from this fire.

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Because there seems to be little wrong in terms of the quality of his pitches (from what I can tell his curveball has improved from 08 to 09 in terms of break)

and, while the logic is admittedly flawed, I can’t find anything other than the heavy increase in cutter usage and the abandonment of the changeup. I think there is little left to actually go through. Maybe its a pitch sequencing thing? I don’t know…

by Navi's_Navy on Sep 29, 2009 9:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Serious question?

Does this graphs and location graphs and the like really interest y’all this much?

I’ve found some pretty neat advanced stats that i enjoy and am glad to have discovered through this site, but man this stuff is too much like homework

by sternfan1 on Sep 29, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Sep 29, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah a lot of it is really interesting

Sometimes you just get in the zone while working on something and get really psyched to see what the answers are that get spit out

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 29, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, having been a pitcher, I love this stuff

It is very telling

Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame

by terp12 on Sep 30, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sonny last year had the best season by a Ray not named Kaz or Shields

I’m curious as to why the massive dropoff. The fact he is a soft tosser may be enough to satisfy you. I need more.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Sep 29, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm an information whore.

Odds are I won’t find an answer, but not trying is harder than accepting that reality.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 29, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I actually put little stock in the pitch location graphs. I've never read/seen anything suggesting a change isn't random variation.

Also, considering that so many pitches are lost in this type of data analysis (pitches out of the zone) i’m not a huge fan of it. Thats not to say I don’t like graphs/tables in general, its more a specific quibble with this presentation of data.

by Navi's_Navy on Sep 29, 2009 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

hahha

It can feel like homework at times, great comment.

the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009

by CubFanRaysaddict on Sep 29, 2009 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Does B-Ref have a split for bearded starts vs. clean shaven starts

If that man doesn’t have a fu manchu or mutton chops he has no way of excelling.

Embrace Eternity

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 29, 2009 10:06 PM EDT reply actions  

I know you said you were planning on maybe looking at this, but I'm looking at the location charts and see that he increased usage down in the zone by 3% from year to year.

This could be (probably is) variance, but does anyone who is a little more experienced with pitch f/x in graph form know what pitches are getting pitched lower? The changeup, a pitch you’d expect to generally be low, is gone, so that means something had to have seen at least a marginal increase in usage down in the zone, this could be a problem (I can’t see how, but at this point I’m just looking for something to explain it).

by Navi's_Navy on Sep 29, 2009 10:55 PM EDT reply actions  

When you get Rays4242 hate mail, can you please post it in this thread.

The last one was awesome.

What you think all the guns is for? All purpose war, got the Rottweilers by the door. And I feed 'em gunpowder, so they can devour the criminals, tryin' to drop my decimals.

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Sep 30, 2009 8:07 AM EDT reply actions  

How about his out of zone pitches?

Also what if there is just a book on Sonny now. I know qualitative stuff isn’t big around here but perhaps traditional scouting caught up to sonny and now the hitters are better prepared. This could be a factor Especially considering his style

Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.

by matthan on Sep 30, 2009 2:02 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

The thing is that there is such a change in pitch usage that I find it hard to believe it was predicted by hitters/coaches coming into the season.

I mean, 20% more cutters and an abandonment of the change, not to mention slightl variations (generally in Sonny’s favor) on breaking ball speed/break, and I think it has to be more of an issue with pitch selection/sequencing than a result of traditional scouting. Although I haven’t done anything on my own, based off this chart I take away from it he is working more low in the zone (3% increase despite losing his changeup, a pitch that should/almost always is, thrown low in the zone), and maybe this is hurting him (I don’t know why it would).

I’m personally not averse to traditional scouting being a viable option when pitchers struggle, but in this case the relatively major change in arsenal seems to discredit that. Also, because Sonny’s arm angle is inconsistent (supposedly purposefully) I find it even harder to believe that he has fallen to better scouting. Also, I agree on the fact that because out of zone pitches are neglected here this kind of analysis is pretty incomplete. I still attest it is Sonny’s change of arsenal that has caused the negative play this year.

by Navi's_Navy on Sep 30, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

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