Is Wade Davis Ready For The Rays Rotation?
by Tommy Rancel on Sep 3, 2009 6:00 AM EDT
81 comments
At this point there is no correct answer to the question raised in the title of this article simply because we haven't seen Wade Davis pitch at this level. However, after Andy Sonnanstine's peformance Tuesday, the Rays have decided it's time to find out if he is. Davis has posted an FIP 3.81 so for this season for the Durham Bulls. Despite that number, anybody who thinks that Davis is going to walk in that door on Sunday and be a sub 4 FIP pitcher out of the gate is most likely going to end up disappointed.
Davis ranks 12th in the International League in swinging strike percentage amongst starters, however, he's in the top five in overall strikeouts with nearly 21% of at-bats ending in a K. Depending on where you get the numbers from, Davis is somewhere between 37-40% groundballs for the season. Our favorite guru, Rick Peterson, said the biggest evaluators of a starting pitcher are the ability to get swinging strikes and induce groundballs. If Davis can continue doing what he did at Durham this would definitely help in his transition to big league starter along with his mid 90s fastball and hammer curveball.
Davis, 23, has pitched 158.2 innings so far in Triple A this season. He pitched a combined 160.2 between Double-A and Durham last year. As a ball park figure, the Rays usually don't increase a young pitcher's inning total more than 20% year over year. This would put Davis's "limit" somewhere near ~195 innings. Assuming Davis takes a turn every five to six says until the end of the season we're looking at an addition 25-30 innings of work on top of the 158.2 he has so far. This would fall in line with the 20% increase. If we assume that Davis can be league average or so (4.5 FIP) thats about 14-16 expected earned runs over those innings.
One would hope that two above average seasons in Durham means that he is as ready as he'll ever be to take the next step and be a key member of the rotation for years to come. Of course, many prospects have posted good numbers only to flame out at the top level. We don't know which path Davis' career will take, but we are about to start finding out.
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I'm happy to see the plug pulled on Sonny, especially after hearing Maddon say in his post game comments "he threw well"
and “the HR to Bay was ok”
Had Sonny pitched well while at DUR i’m sure the leah would have been lomger, but he didn’t
by sternfan1 on Sep 3, 2009 6:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The leah would have definitely been lomger
amir8? ah? eh? oh?
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 3, 2009 7:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm going on Sunday!
When I told my family Davis would be making his debut on Sunday, the following conversation took place at my house:
Wife: Who are you taking?
Me: I don’t know yet.
Daughter (Gets up and crosses room to give father a hug): I love you daddy. I love you very, very much.
Me (Referring to daughter): It’s her turn.
by Deepdoodle on Sep 3, 2009 7:33 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Dude, I love you too.
WTF? Does that kid even know what FIP stands for?
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 3, 2009 7:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha! She's 13
So FIP is probably textese for Friends In P.E. or something. But she is a rabid fan.
by Deepdoodle on Sep 3, 2009 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DRB is a family community. There is absolutely no place whatsoever for 'Just for Men' stories. Please take your gross fetishes somewhere else.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Sep 3, 2009 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Your beard is wierd
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Sep 3, 2009 11:01 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Your 'stache is trash
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Sep 3, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
o snap
Matt Joyce > Gabe (Insert last name here)
by raysfan1181 on Sep 3, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Either my jokes really suck, or my jokes are so good that I have to hit monster shots every time to earn my recs.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Sep 3, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice to be loved
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 3, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tigers are middle of the pack in K rate and below average in walk rate
middle of AL in HR rate but play in a pitchers park. I am expecting decent things from Davis at home. Overall for the season, league average will suffice.
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by FreeZorilla on Sep 3, 2009 8:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It should be a good match-up for him. Their hitters are not all that patient
Same reason i knew Kaz would do well in SEA, not only impatient but collectively bad
by sternfan1 on Sep 3, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm confused. Aren't we going to need 6 starters next trip around the rotation
So weren’t they going to have to bring Davis up anyway to pitch one of the games in Yankee stadium. I don’t see how this means Sonny is out of the rotation. He most likely is going to pitch the next day in Yankee stadium.
They probably would rather have Davis have his first start at home instead of at Yankee stadium so they pushed Sonny back. I definitely can’t say I agree with the move
Bring Your Z-Game!
by Sveet on Sep 3, 2009 9:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's one trip around.
I haven’t seen anything that says it’s just a 6 man rotation from here on out. If they continue the 5 man rotation after the double header, I’d rather that be Davis.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Sep 3, 2009 9:19 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Now you're cooking with gas Tommy
Hinsight being 20/20 we should have traded Sonny last year
by sternfan1 on Sep 3, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still no.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 3, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because it was never about Sonny v EJax and you know it.
It was about $$$. Trading Edwin allowed us to bolster our RF platoon and bullpen. And we got a long term RF.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 3, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really don't want to rehash that debate, other to say they did
bolster RF but possibly at the expense of the playoffs this year
by sternfan1 on Sep 3, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you disagree?
plug EJ and his numbers into the rotation and i’d bet you’d see a different W/L
by sternfan1 on Sep 3, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah cuz that's how it works
just plug them in.
WITH HIS 11 WINS WE WOULD BE 83-49
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 3, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's 1 v 9 out there.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 3, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, those magical wins
Only one came against a team with a decent offense (TEX). And he’s been pretty crap in the 2nd half of the year.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 3, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
CLE has a good offense--he's beat them 3x
by sternfan1 on Sep 3, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll give you that.
But you can’t ignore how his 2nd half has not resembled his 1st. And still, it wasn’t about how good or bad he was as it relates to the Rays.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 3, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
13 dingers over his last 11 games
That’s a good way to regress your FIP
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 3, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I honestly don't want Edwin to do poorly.
But saying, “It’d be great if we kept Edwin” is, in my mind, nearly equivalent to saying, “It’d be great if we could have signed Sabathia this offseason”.
Stu said it best – we have to properly reallocate our resources to compete.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 3, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's some poop on your nose
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 3, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm well aware of that
and blasted on Indian fan for saying how great he is, by pointing out that very fact
Still with him rather than Sonny we’re in better shape today
We made one serious error, imo we probably thought Price was more ready than he was
I can’t fault the FO for the demise of Kaz and Sonny or the regression of Garza and SHields
by sternfan1 on Sep 3, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sonny's trade value wasn't as high. Please read my above post.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 3, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't matter--we would have been better off in '09 with EJ and that is all my point is about
Payroll is not that big a deal, as he on;y gets $2..5mm
by sternfan1 on Sep 3, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We would've been better off with a lot of players.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 3, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Should have signed Bonds to platoon DH with PTB
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 3, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bonds
We don’t have a helmet big enough.
by terp12 on Sep 3, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We will next year
Bring on those jet fighter helmets the MILB has to use next year
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 3, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This was not edited in Photoshop, I shit you not.
by Marky Mark's Third Nipple on Sep 3, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OMG!
That looks absolutely ridiculous. Where is the chin strap?
by terp12 on Sep 3, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed.
Rawlings needs to rethink this idea. They can come up with a better idea then this.
I don’t know why carbon fiber and compression gels wouldn’t work.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
by kericr on Sep 3, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Active Tank armor might work
Tiny explosives can sense when a ball is coming for the head. They detonate when the ball is close to striking a person
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 3, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
After the game he strained spaghetti for the team with that thing
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 3, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then after everyone ate, he used it to brutally murder the entire team.
Could you imagine Craig Biggio in that thing? Poor guy.
by Marky Mark's Third Nipple on Sep 3, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's actually Juggernaut's helmet.
The Gem of Cyttorak is possessing David in that very image.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 3, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Will it be optional?
Go back to no helmets. Then you will see some nervous feet at the plate.
by terp12 on Sep 3, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who the hell is that
he looks like he survived a fire in which 90% of his body got 3rd degree burns, but was Eckstein enough to put the armor back on
Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation
by CubFanRaysaddict on Sep 5, 2009 5:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is this rather than Sonny talk?
If we kept Edwin it would have been him and Sonny, if we trade him it’s just Sonny. Nobody was going to trade something legit for Andy.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 3, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And one of the AL's better bullpens.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 3, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In the Times this morning
Sonny is scheduled to pitch against the Yanks on Monday’s doubleheader. I think my sphincter just tightened a bit.
by terp12 on Sep 3, 2009 9:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not definite
That is what they are speculating.
by terp12 on Sep 3, 2009 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
God I cannot wait for Hellboy
I think Davis will be okay, but his minor league numbers just don’t really impress me. This is a mid to back end of the guy, like Niemann. Hopefully we can fill out our #5 slot with a guy with #4 talent and our #4 slot with a guy with #3 talent. Can’t have aces across the board.
Just someone better watch their back cause our ace is coming through the system at an alarming rate.
Can David Ortiz please send Dioner Navarro some of his PED's? K? Thanks
by matthan on Sep 3, 2009 9:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps I'm reading too much into this, but you seem down that Davis is finally getting his chance.
Almost like you expect failure. While I don’t expect CGSO’s right off the bat, I do think he will do a good job. As long as he can get their lefties he will be fine. Nobody seemed to think much of Niemann coming into the season
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 3, 2009 9:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Davis is going to do really well
I really like his stuff and control has never really been a problem for him. I think his transition should be easier than Price’s as he already has three pitches. I just don’t want people to say OMG BUST if he struggles early on.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Sep 3, 2009 9:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Understood
I think he’s going to be death on righty heavy squads. Teams with a lot of switch hitters or lefties could hit him pretty hard, but I want to see Wade make the adjustments with the big boys.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 3, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lock him in a room with Shields and improve his change up
To neutralize the lefties.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Sep 3, 2009 9:55 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Just let Hickey teach him the benefits of the curveball over the change
Go to the dark side, you must.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 3, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh snap
It’s the dreaded contraverted Sigma
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Sep 3, 2009 10:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jags
I just heard that Jags got fired from the Bucs. Any confirmation on that?
by terp12 on Sep 3, 2009 10:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He was "dismissed", whatever that means.
But yes, he’s no longer with the team.
by Marky Mark's Third Nipple on Sep 3, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I showed him some homes
I drove him around S. Tampa and he just bought a house in Culbreath Isles. Ouch. He still has a house in Boston. Sucks for him.
by terp12 on Sep 3, 2009 11:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
As long as he's closer to Doug Davis than Doug Waechter, I'm happy
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Sep 3, 2009 11:03 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
I cannot believe sternfan hasn't started calling Howell "W.P. Howell" after two wild pitches this week.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 3, 2009 11:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He couldn't think of anything clever
and you just fed the fire.
by BrokeBearMountain on Sep 3, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it looks like one of those mushroom hat things from mario
Over the Monster: an unofficial blog for Red Sox bandwagon "Fans"
by raysfan81 on Sep 3, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Larry Bowa is going to have a shit fit
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 3, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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