Carl Crawford Open to Long-Term Deal
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 30, 2009 4:55 PM EDT
46 comments
tborays Carl Crawford said he's open to talking long-term deal w/ #Rays after season - "I hope we can get something done"
That from Marc Lancaster's Twitter account.
I did the math on a possible Crawford extension a month ago, here's what I had:
Over the last three years (including this one and rounding it to 5) we get 4.51 WAR.
He’s 28-years-old, so let’s say he signs a five year deal, that gives you this structure with a 0.5 win decline — aggressive, yes, but let’s say the turf indeed has hurt his knees and his speed starts to go — thrown in:
29: 4
30: 3.5
31: 3
32: 2.5
33: 2With the 10% increase in money per WAR that gives you a value of 88 million over the next 5 years. Say he takes a 10% discount for a long-term deal and another 5% discount for the Rays. That puts you at about 5/75.
Maybe the Rays can work some tricks, like deferring some money 10-15 years down the road in a "retirement" fund or whatever, but we’re looking at paying one player upwards of 15 million per year while we have two — presumably decent — options sitting a level away who are younger and cheaper.
Also: this is assuming we put it in place of his 10 mil season, if we didn’t, you’re looking at 5/68 and his 30-34 seasons, which are risky.
Either way, you’re talking a ton of money on an annual basis
It'll be interesting to see how much Crawford (and his agent) are willing to discount from their market value in order to stick around.
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Emotionally I say yes, but
Realistically, paying that much to an aging player who’s biggest asset is speed doesn’t make much sense especially with Dez Jennings knocking (breaking down) on the door.
CC is easily the greatest player in the franchises history and he’s had a fantastic season. Even at 5/75 he’ll still be a bargain most likely, but I rather invest elsewhere.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Sep 30, 2009 4:59 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Unless the trade market is pretty dry, I side with Tommy
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Sep 30, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty much
My heart wants to see one of our premier players be a Ray for life, but my brain knows it just can’t happen.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Sep 30, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I say yes, yes and yes again.
What I don’t think people realize is that Carl when his legs give out him, he is still going to be a hell of hitter. i can see Carl learning how to modify his swing and hit more homre runs. If we can lock down Carl Crawford that says a lot out our future and taht could give us some lead way when it comes to locking up other furture players like Desmond Jennings, Longoria ( may we can keep Longo for the rest of his career.), JP Howell, and others.
Carl has played for the Rays when there was nothing to play for. He has helped give the Rays an identity, something to look forward to. It would be wonderful if Carl can retire w/ just one town to call his own.
Thank you Carl for playing so hard in the past and for all that you’ll do in the future.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Oct 1, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree as well, that it is likely time for the Rays to move on
If they did, what could we expect in a trade?
Considering how bad some fans flipped out about the Kazmir trade, though they may still not know who Wade Davis is, this one would likely go over like the release of Derrick Brooks.
Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame
by terp12 on Sep 30, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Trading CC after a so so year should spur offseason ticket sales
by sternfan1 on Sep 30, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really don't think it would make much of an impact
If the Rays come out the chute winning, all will be well.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Sep 30, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think going from 10,300 to 10,250
Will really make a difference
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Sep 30, 2009 6:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I like 5/75 so long as there isn't a no-trade clause
assuming he doesn’t get hurt and just completely go in the tank, there will always be a market to trade him down the road. now, that is a big assumption, but one maybe worth taking.
Regressing to the mean streets of St. Pete
by stpetelawyer on Sep 30, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
20% of payroll on CC?
In a perfect world the Rays would sign him, but it doesnt make any sense. The Rays made it to the WS in 2008 with CC playing in only 100 games, and having a subpar year. Losing him doesnt “close the window” on the Rays as some in the media have suggested. With Joyce, Jennings, and Zobbrist all capable of filling in at far less cost, this really should be a no brainer.
by td32 on Sep 30, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Imagine what we could get for Crawford
Someone like Kurt Suzuki and prospects
Rarely is the question asked: Is our children learning?
by acablue on Sep 30, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see them going 5 years out on CC
by sternfan1 on Sep 30, 2009 5:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Younger and cheaper
Is not the end of the analysis. There’s little reason other than boundless optimism to believe either of the two younger and cheaper options will be as good as CC ever, let alone immediately or within 5 years. The cliche says you get what you pay for, but in this case you have to pay for what you get. In CC we get an All Star LF. I’m in favor of paying for it.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Sep 30, 2009 6:54 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
I am with you Not Whole Gang survivor
Your position is the same as mine. Most of the folks on here assume every minor-league hotshot is going to be as good as CC. Percentages say they are wrong. These are the same guys who want to trade Bartlett, etc. Yeah that’s it, dump the few really good players, and then the Rays can become the AL’s Pittsburgh Pirates. If any of you fans in Florida went to a few more freakin’ games, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. If CC ends up on Yankees or Red Sox, the Rays are screwed. He’s gonna be fast for a long time. Tim Raines was, Otis Nixon was, well into their 30s. Perez can run like CC but he can’t play like him. No certainty that Jennings will be close, too. And if you think 28 is old, you are messed up.
by OrioleSteelerz on Sep 30, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crawford's career high OPS is .830.....
And that was in 2006. He plays a corner OF position, which isnt a highly classified defensive position. He does play it great and steals a lot of bases. Jennings can most certainly play a great LF, and it isnt too far fetched seeing one of the top prospects in the game have a near 800 OPS. CC OPS’d .719 last season, and this team made the post season…so how valuable is he if you can get someone to replace that level of productivity for $15 million less?
I do like CC, but when there are prospects like Jennings that are close to ready, you have to think with your brain instead of your heart.
by td32 on Sep 30, 2009 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can we see Jennings against MLB competition ...
… before we anoint him, please? Also, I knew I would get a stat-based response to my post. I especially dislike OPS because of the duplication involved. I hope I don’t have to explain that. If you want to talk OBP or SLG, I am there but not for the made-up stat that dupes hits. My heart has nothing to do with it …
I am sick of seeing teams dump quality players 25-26-27 because they’re getting old … it’s not women’s tennis. There are plenty of plus-30 types that can still play, and well. They don’t all fail at 28. You take the worst-case scenario for proven players, and then apply the best-case scenario to unproven minor leaguers. That’s having it both ways IMO.
by OrioleSteelerz on Sep 30, 2009 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dupes hits?
Then use wOBA.
And made-up stat? I’ll be sure to read your comments after seeing gems like that.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 30, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you don't like OPS because it duplicates hits
Then wouldn’t you agree that OPS makes Crawford, who gets most of his offensive value from hitting singles and doubles, look BETTER than he really is? I mean, you’re basically proving his point on that one.
They’re not dumping Crawford because he’s getting old, they’re potentially dumping Crawford because he’s getting expensive. And the analysis does say that the projected decline is “aggressive.”
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Sep 30, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Sep 30, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps you prefer wOBA
.368, .365, .319, .367 over 2006-09. This is Fangraphs wOBA which rewards basestealing. Add in a great rangey OF with almost no arm and you have a guy that is replaceable. Not only can you find someone that can put up similar stats, but they will do it for 1/30th the cost, allowing a team to plug other holes PLUS the prospects that are brought in a trade. Maybe for a deep-pocketed team like the O’s (chuckle) this is a move that makes sense, but we aren’t in that realm yet.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 30, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just another beer hall putsch from
the Greek hating sissy. It’s not like CC will help the Rays get a frontline starter or catcher, stop buc’ing us with your analysis.
the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009
by CubFanRaysaddict on Sep 30, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not in the mood chief
Get well soon DM
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 30, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
:(
sorry ‘chief’, I meant to make many slightly veiled drug references that included the words peyote, lucy in the sky with diamonds, and mary j….then I intended to heavily pet you to sleep…
the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009
by CubFanRaysaddict on Oct 1, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The cliche doesn't apply to baseball.
Good teams build off cheap young talent.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 30, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fight a cliche with a cliche, eh?
Maybe in your ideal world they do, but in MLB most championship teams have been a mix of cheap young talent and “get what you pay for” veterans. Those that send away vets in favor of perpetually cheaper and younger options end up looking like the Expos and Pirates. This is not a model I want the Rays to emulate.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Sep 30, 2009 7:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Utley, Howard, Victorino, Hamels, That guy who beat his wife, That RF.
Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.
by P Brady on Sep 30, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The other alternative
If a team is out there that really believes in him, is that if we can get a better return for Upton than we could get for Crawford (possible, considering the contract differences), we sign Crawford to a long-term home team deal, lock a good chunk of our salary in him, have Jennings replace Upton, and then use the pieces we receive in return for Upton to save the money that’s being spent on Crawford.
Lord knows that would be more popular with the fan base, but I don’t know that having more goodwill really creates a tangible difference in ticket sales, independent of wins and losses. I also question whether Upton would be able to get a package better enough to warrant making that deal instead and eating the salary bullet.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Sep 30, 2009 7:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Upton's not making a ton at Arb anyway.
Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.
by P Brady on Sep 30, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not this year
You bite the bullet in 2010, but hopefully make back the savings over the life of the contracts.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Sep 30, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you on the panel?
Don’t be so sure. Arb doesn’t just take ’09 into account.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Oct 1, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But he'll still only be getting 40% of his open market value
Which means he’ll probably get something in the $3 – 4 million range.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Oct 1, 2009 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if it means Posey in return (w/ us giving maybe another prospect)
do it, and put up with CC’s decline
the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009
by CubFanRaysaddict on Sep 30, 2009 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Count me as one who believes
that player recognition matters to more casual fans, and most fans are a lot more casual than us here. So trading CC could have a negative impact on advance sales. It seems to me the Tampa fan base may be a bit fickle – winning sparked something, the economy put a lid on it, but they hung in until lately now that the Rays are done. What happens if some more of the recognizable guys get moved in the offseason following on the heels of the Kaz deal?
And what could the impact on possible extension deals be? How do Garza, Zobrist, Howell, or BJ feel seeing Kaz then CC and maybe Barty moved? Of course, that can cut 2 ways – they could see it as more available for them.
I completely understand the logic of moving CC – he’s the guy they have the most ready replacement for. But DJ hasn’t even had a sniff. Seems to me CC should be held until the next deadline after seeing what DJ can do a bit. Will the Rays get less at the deadline than now? Maybe, maybe not. If CC’s playing well, they’ll likely do fine. And it will be a contract year for him. If he slips, it backfires. But oftentimes patience is a virtue.
I do think Posey is a pipedream – the Giants need a C going forward.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Oct 1, 2009 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Delmon Young has a bald ass head
Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.
by P Brady on Sep 30, 2009 8:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
10/5
That rule is going to be the ultimate bear to cross for CC. I don’t see it happening unless if he goes below market value as RJ suggests. But I don’t see it. Highly, HIGHLY improbably but not impossible.
The Rays have never had a 10/5 player before and given CC’s snippiness about certain aspects of the playing surface or where he plays, etc., I can’t see this happening.
Put Tampa Bay back on our road uniforms!! Attendance is only part of revenue!!
by joedobr on Sep 30, 2009 10:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
10/5
10 years of MLB service and 5 with the same team gives a player automatic no trade protection…I can’t see the Rays giving Carl this hammer to play with.
The Rays are already “spent out” (if you believe them), and unless if you can center a deal around someone like a Buster Posey, then it wouldn’t make sense. What the local media doesn’t get is you need to know NOW what Carl’s intentions are. Because if you can’t sign him by the Winter Meetings, his trade value goes down after that point. I can’t see the Rays accepting just 2 first round picks for Carl, so again, I see this coming to a head in early December.
Put Tampa Bay back on our road uniforms!! Attendance is only part of revenue!!
by joedobr on Sep 30, 2009 10:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Looking at some of CC's comments
And I almost believe that he’d sign for below market value in order to have the security blanket of a long term (5 year deal) in place. If the Rays guarantee the first 3 years and hold the final 2 as team options, I’d probably be all for it depending on the salary of course.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Oct 1, 2009 8:28 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
What do you guys think we could get for CC
If we traded him, what could we expect in return? I would love Posey, but I think that’s probably unlikely. What about Jason Castro as a centerpiece. Maybe Castro and Jordan Lyles? Houston still has JR and don’t seem adverse to spending money, plus CC is a hometown boy. I know they don’t really have a need for another OF, but just trying to think of somewhere he may fit that we could get a C in return. Would Houston go for something like that? Should we?
OT a little- where is a good site to find scouting reports on minor leaguers? I would really like to find something that had the 20-80 scale breakdown of guys that was reliable. Is there anything out there like this?
by ReyL on Oct 1, 2009 9:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No place where you won't have to pay a fortune
Baseball America and PG Crosschecker are the most reliable, but BA almost never has 20-80 scouting reports.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Oct 1, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the heads up Brick
I wasn’t aware of PG Crosschecker, so I’ll check that out. I really appreciate it.
by ReyL on Oct 2, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
rec'd
"We are very pleased to hear C.C.’s comments,’’ executive vice president Andrew Friedman said. "Consistent with our policy, we do not speak publicly about contract negotiations but obviously we have a tremendous amount of respect for Carl both on and off the field. He has been a big part of our past success and I expect he will be a big part of our future success as well."
by zeng8r on Oct 1, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's not news. That's what he has to say.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on Oct 1, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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