Carl Crawford Open to Long-Term Deal

tborays Carl Crawford said he's open to talking long-term deal w/ #Rays after season - "I hope we can get something done"

That from Marc Lancaster's Twitter account.

I did the math on a possible Crawford extension a month ago, here's what I had:

Over the last three years (including this one and rounding it to 5) we get 4.51 WAR.

He’s 28-years-old, so let’s say he signs a five year deal, that gives you this structure with a 0.5 win decline — aggressive, yes, but let’s say the turf indeed has hurt his knees and his speed starts to go — thrown in:

29: 4
30: 3.5
31: 3
32: 2.5
33: 2

With the 10% increase in money per WAR that gives you a value of 88 million over the next 5 years. Say he takes a 10% discount for a long-term deal and another 5% discount for the Rays. That puts you at about 5/75.

Maybe the Rays can work some tricks, like deferring some money 10-15 years down the road in a "retirement" fund or whatever, but we’re looking at paying one player upwards of 15 million per year while we have two — presumably decent — options sitting a level away who are younger and cheaper.

Also: this is assuming we put it in place of his 10 mil season, if we didn’t, you’re looking at 5/68 and his 30-34 seasons, which are risky.

Either way, you’re talking a ton of money on an annual basis

It'll be interesting to see how much Crawford (and his agent) are willing to discount from their market value in order to stick around.

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