Ben Zobrist, Joe Morgan and MVP Races
by Tommy Rancel on Sep 4, 2009 1:00 PM EDT
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PrintLast week during one of his infamous JoeChat's, Hall of Famer and everyones favorite baseball analyst, Joe Morgan was asked the following question...
Steve (Middletown, CT) What do you think about Ben Zobrist for AL MVP consideration?
Joe Morgan There are a lot of guys having a good year on a lot of different teams. But to say that he's an MVP candidate, I don't think so. I think you're looking at Teixiera, Morneau, Mauer. There are guys ahead of him as far as MVP is concerned. But Zobrist is having a good season.
We know Morgan doesn't pay attention to things like WAR, wOBA, or UZR so that's to be expected. However, even without those numbers, one could argue Zobrist's case against pretty much anybody in the AL not named Joe Mauer. But that's not the point of this post.
Ben Zobrist may not win the AL MVP, but to say he's not a candidate is a bit outlandish. There aren't many guys hitting .286/.400/.536 in the league period. Add in the above average defense at second base (13.8 UZR) and right field (5.3 UZR) and you're looking a very special season (6.5 WAR).
Since Morgan doesn't consider Zobrist an MVP candidate, I wondered what he would think about this. These numbers comes from a 28 year old second basemen, who was well above average defensively. That player hit .292/.417/.435 with 16 home runs and 23 doubles. This player also showed RIDICULOUS plate disciple walking 115 times and striking out just 44 times in 680 plate appearances. Looking at the advanced metrics, he finished with an OPS of .851 and a wOBA of .405. That wOBA exactly matches the .405 of Zobrist this season. His name is Joe Morgan and in 1972 he finished fourth in the NL MVP race.
Don't get it twisted. In no way, form or fashion am I saying Zobrist is equal to or in the same conversation as Joe Morgan. One is a Hall of Famer and the other has one really good season to his credit. However, just take a look at the similarities in seasons during the age 28 season.
Morgan did also have 58 steals and we can't quantify his defense, but you get the point. Again, Morgan finished fourth that season in MVP voting behind teammate and winner Jonny Bench, runner up Billy Williams and third place finisher Willy Stargell. There's a chance Zobrist will never duplicate the success of this season. And he certainly will not have the career of Mr. Joe Morgan. However, he should be not only an MVP candidate, but a serious one. Unfortunately, thanks to the Rays place in the standings, Morgan will probably end up being right, and Zobrist will probably not get much love when it comes to the MVP vote. Hopefully, the Tampa chapter of the BBWAA doesn't make the same mistake.
All Zobrist numbers from before last night's game
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Zobrist is hands down my team MVP this season
It doesn’t matter if you look at advanced metrics or go by “hustle and grit” or whatever, he has shown selflessness in playing wherever he can get in on the field and has played every position VERY well. His bat has been sick this season, and he had a ton of late inning lightning moments earlier in the season. He HAS to be the team MVP this year. I would think.
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The way Kennedy and Staats were slurping MVB the other day
without much mention of Zobrist or Longo was disturbing
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by Tommy Rancel on Sep 4, 2009 1:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Staats (I think) mentioned Zobrist.
Nobody mentioned Longoria.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed
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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Sep 4, 2009 2:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm making a vow to myself that no matter how retarded the BBWAA votes are for MVP/CY/ROY/etc.
I’m not acknowledging them.
Don't forget gold glove...
Everybody knows if you can’t hit you aren’t a gold glover.
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Ugh.
I can’t believe Michael Young has one and not Crawford.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
A phonebook and random number generator.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't imagine they would consider UZR, Rng (or whatever it is)
I’m sure its based on reputation, errors and things of that nature.
Much like Pro Bowl voting for offensive lineman.
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And offense.
You can be the best defender, but if you’re hitting .230 forget it. B.J. Upton is a prime example.
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by Tommy Rancel on Sep 4, 2009 1:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Seriously? offense factors into Gold Glove voting (is it voted on or decided by a blind panel of 3)
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I ask, because I honestly don't know how or who votes on this stuff
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managers and coaches
via wiki
Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation
by CubFanRaysaddict on Sep 4, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
but it seems it's mostly reputation
once you win one, you’re called a gold glove fill in the blank forever, got to love the insanity of this award and the brilliant banter it provides announcers, like earlier this year, you had morgan talk about how good Andrus had to have been if he supplanted a gold glove SS of Michael Youngs caliber.
Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation
by CubFanRaysaddict on Sep 4, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
We can have a fanpost
But making fun of the BBWAA is one of my favorite pasttimes.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Sep 4, 2009 2:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
This. He may hate walks and OBP but he was damn good at both
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by Tommy Rancel on Sep 4, 2009 1:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Base clogger.
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by Tommy Rancel on Sep 4, 2009 1:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
MVP
Will almost certainly go to Mauer. And if it has to go to anyone not named Zobrist, that seems fair to me.
Jeter's hype machine is getting louder and louder
If Twins don’t make the playoffs of course that goes against Mauer.
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by Tommy Rancel on Sep 4, 2009 1:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Having better pitchers who know how to locate pitches and good infield grass have helped him
/yankees fans
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by Tommy Rancel on Sep 4, 2009 1:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Zobrist is by far the team MVP.
I’m still not 100% convinced that he can reduplicate a ~7 WAR season, especially because I don’t trust his HR power. Hopefully with a BJ rebound year, better production from C, Burrell improving, that we won’t need to rely so much on Ben.
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Reduplicate? My God.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
I cannot wait for the first projections to be released and being able to run WAR totals.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
What do you see us doing about catcher?
Same current platoon?
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
Dunno.
I’m still debating the idea of tendering Navarro.
It can’t that hard to find a right-handed catcher on the cheap, right?
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really
He has options left, and it’s not like he’s been good on defense OR offense this year.
I wouldn’t mind slightly overpaying for a decent but not great backstop out of some of our depth.
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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Sep 4, 2009 2:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I just don't know where to find one
Even in TX, Salty is a K machine with out the peripherals that generally make you deal with that, Teagarden is just as bad, and Max Ramirez isn’t exactly setting the world on fire with his <.300 wOBA. Honestly, I wouldn’t mind trying to get John Baker from the Marlins, but they’re not just going to hand him over with out a surcharge.
Embrace Eternity
teagarden has the benefit of having a sterling reputation as a fielder
Teagarden = Shoppach in the making?
I haven't seen any dimension of Navarro's game this year that'd I'd consider decent.
That’s the difference between a slump and being awful, IMO.
At the very least, Zaun/Michel would provide consistently well called games behind the plate.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
This makes me want to run my own Marcels.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Meh
He’s young, he’s been good, and he likely won’t be too expensive. I gotta imagine we’ll tender him with the expectation that he’ll show up in shape and ready to go.
O/U on “Navi in the Best Shape of His Career” articles during ST?
I say 8.
At least he won't spend this off-season partying...
And I meant just to get a projection idea, not Navi specifically.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I would generally agree that he's got youth on his side.
But in what part of his game do you see hope? He swings at everything, isn’t very good defensively, can’t run, doesn’t have a cannon arm. Even when our prospects have had catastrophic years (BJ 2009), they’ve at least provided value in some areas. I’m not picking on Navi because its obvious. I want him to succeed. But his approach is bad. Very bad. That takes the wind out of the sails of statistical fluctuation, no?
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
Yeah I mean there isn't a lot to like.
He has shown flashes, though, so I neglect to give up on him. He used to have a better approach, so I wonder what happened? Did he just lose it completely?
the biggest glaring flaw is his BABIP on groundballs
its so ludicrously low, but unless he learns to get to first base faster then its not going to improve. Last I checked it was like .130 or something on ground balls, and the league average is in the mid-high .200s (IIRC). Fix that up a bit and I think we get a slightly more decent Navi. The BB rate still seems like an anomaly to me, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it double or so (back to an oh-so-great 6% or so). He won’t be great, but he probably wont be this bad (ESPECIALLY if he is platooning)
I don't see the need to pay both player 2+ million
At first I thought it would be ok, but really just a waste of money. I’d keep Zaun and sign a cheap RH partner.
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by Tommy Rancel on Sep 4, 2009 1:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I did a post awhile ago about how both Bartlett and Zo should be in the MVP discussion
however if anyone gets it besides Mauer it’s a joke.
I don't think Bartlett should be in the MVP discussion at all
MVB on the other hand….
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7th in AL
In park-adjusted Runs Above Average. 10th in WAR.
He certainly shouldn’t get it. But in the discussion? I think that’s fair.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Sep 4, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Minor League
I haven’t followed the Rays minor league much. What I know, I have learned in the past couple of weeks on this blog. It seems we develop great talent at every position but catcher. Any thoughts? Am I wrong?
Luke Bailey!
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by Tommy Rancel on Sep 4, 2009 2:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What is the plan for Riggans?
If he stays healthy, is he an asset to the Rays? Does he ever stick at MLB? Or is the assumption that he will be healthy for about 7% of the year?
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too injured
He is what he is – a zero cost option who isn’t a liability at backup, when healthy. But his inability to stay healthy makes him expendible, and we almost certainly won’t keep him into arb years.
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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Sep 4, 2009 2:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Has he produced in the bigs yet?
Plenty of highly touted catching prospects have fizzled in the last 3 years. Nearly every catcher prospect gets vastly overrated right now. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Even Wieters.
Who I think will still be good to great, hasn’t been nearly as good as advertised this year.
Sickels seems really guilty of this
Digging through his top-20s for this year I saw that virtually every team has a top-10 team catching prospect, while many are top-5. I think this is in part because of how scarce they are. Even if a guy projects to be above-average, if you can get him on the field you win.
Embrace Eternity
Yeah
I think everyone is doing it right now, though.
Look at guys like Towles, Mathis, etc. They are all terrible.
if you believe scouts saying Mathis is a catching wizard then its much more excusable...
but thats a slippery slope and I see the point
Catchers
Is there a general lack of quality available? Ahh, while typing this rglass44 answered it. Catching talent sucks now? Seems like something to focus on. They are involved with almost every play and pitch called. If you can get a good one it usually effects the entire outlook of the team.
It isn't easy at all.
Look at the Rangers. They had a bunch of supposed “top-flight” catcher prospects. Salty has been terrible and Teagarden isn’t much better. That’s why they felt the need to bring in that Pudgy Corpse.
Competition
It looks to me that the Yanks and Sox have stepped up their game this year to combat the Rays talent. We may have a hard time overcoming that acknowledgment for years to come. With catching being a crucial part of the game, it seems like a great place to focus more effort on, especially if there is a small pool of minor league talent.
Without a Mauer or McCann type
I think the best route to go is a platoon with catcher. You’re carrying two regardless. You might as well carry ones who can complement each other like the Gabes.
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by Tommy Rancel on Sep 4, 2009 2:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Why
Why would doing a better job scouting a good catcher take away from the other positions? We only have the resources to scout eight? I gotta believe that couldn’t be a big factor. Seems like focus. Do we have scouts that focus on that position is the question? I’m sure each scout relates better to certain positions, speed, hitting, pitching etc. I would guess that is why certain teams always develop their best talent at certain positions. Or, could it be lack of quality coaches that really know how to school a young catcher? That position is very different than the rest.
Right now we scout plenty of catchers.
Too sat we should “make it a priority” to find a good catcher isn’t thaat easy. If it was 28 teams would do it. The issue is to “beat” everyone else at it we have to sacrifice elsewhere. Ya’ dig?
I didn't think women went to GaTech...
We have a big tailgate planned for the MD-WFU game this year because one of my best college friend is from MD and a lot of his family/friends went there. We’ll all be making the trek down from the DC area to enjoy lovely Winston-Salem.
Nice
She graduated with honors in Economics. I wanted someone who is much smarter than me. Not really that hard to find.
Well done.
My Wake friends used to say we went to Wake to get a rich girl pregnant. Not all that different.
how do you like it up there?
I ask BC I am moving to annapplis in the next two weeks.
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by jqueipo on Sep 4, 2009 6:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I live in Tampa now
Annapolis can be very very nice. Of course, like anywhere there are good parts and bad, but in general I think it is one of the nicest spots in the country. I’d be glad to give you a total run down of the whole area if you want. My email is on my profile. If you want to send me your number, I will tell you the scoop on the phone. There is a lot more to do up there, than down here. Don’t get me wrong, I like Tampa, but there is way more to do up there.
Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in Hall of Fame
As someone else mentioned previously
Most catchers don’t call their own games until the minors. This requires most of their focus so the bat tends to lag behind. Most teams aren’t going to give up a projected average catcher unless you overpay.
Embrace Eternity
I think we are in better position than Toronto was during their 3rd place run
They had to spend a ton of money. The BJ Ryan trade, Wells/Rios deals, and their studly prospects coming 3 years too late really doomed them.
Embrace Eternity
Nice to have another ACC fan around these parts.
(I don’t count FSU because they are not generally basketball fans)
that changed alot
after the Chris Rix years, and the continued sucking, FSU just loves a winner, and the basketball team has gotten progressively better, they’ve picked up a lot of fans, it will never be to the level it is in NC, but it was a pretty decent basketball school back in the day of the alien and the heisman (Cassell and Ward) (arena is a piece of crap also).
Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation
by CubFanRaysaddict on Sep 4, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you go to Ohio St.?
Notice we were talking about ACC basketball. Certainly, Ohio St. is great at showing the nation how to lose football championships lately, but basketball?
Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in Hall of Fame
Nope didn't go. But i'm a fan. Just giving Rglass a rough time
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For the lulz
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