How Does Desmond Jennings Stack Up to Evan Longoria & Delmon Young?
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 6:00 AM EDT
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PrintOn the heels of his 7-7 performance last night, let's take a look at how Desmond Jennings compares to the the Rays two big positional prospects since adopting Montgomery as their Double-A affiliate. Those obviously being Longoria and Young.
First up, AA stats:
| Montg. | PA | BB% | SO% | ISO | Age |
| Jennings | 440 | 10.9 | 13.6 | 0.170 | 22 |
| Longoria | 556 | 9.4 | 20.8 | 0.221 | 20/21 |
| Young | 370 | 6.8 | 20 | 0.246 | 19 |
Older, more walks, less strikeouts and power.
AAA:
| Durham | PA | BB% | SO% | ISO | Age |
| Jennings | 116 | 15.5 | 14.9 | 0.191 | 22 |
| Longoria | 158 | 16.5 | 26.4 | 0.178 | 21/22 |
| Young | 604 | 3.1 | 17.2 | 0.159 | 19/20 |
Older, almost equal walks, less strikeouts, more power, but a smaller sample size.
Longoria and Young were consensus top 10 prospects, Jennings wasn't quite there entering the year, and I don't know if he's there now, but statistically he matches up pretty well and plays an equal position to Longoria. He may not make his major league debut this season, but he is a fantastic talent and if you aren't excited about him, get excited about him.
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TRES NEGRO AMIGOS POR FAVOR!
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
Any chance Jennings sees the majors in 2010?
by dmasterson23 on Sep 4, 2009 11:22 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
B.J Upton
feels sad! Why o why do you people have to be so meant to him? He is just a human too, you know.
WHOO, LUKE! LUKE! LUKE!
Yeah just read that
Sick Nasty is my new name for Deez
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 4, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you read my Olivo piece?
If so, thoughts on the smiley face graph?
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Freaking awesome
I glossed over the one line explainer and was sitting here trying to figure out what the red signified, then saw the explainer. Came out perfect. Also their busting your balls about Tommy Agee apparently playing in 168 in a Roman Coliseum version of the game.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 4, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I had to redraw that stupid thing about a dozen times to get it to look decent.
I hate MSPaint.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I bought (serious) Office yesterday.
Trial version expired and it just ruined my whole day not having access to Excel or Word.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
It's a pain in the ass
I remember not having it last year and having MS Works and then Open Office. Back then google docs didn’t have a converter for OOS or Works and nothing would ever come out right. Super frustrating. It’s a good thing work likes me and bought us these shiny new laptops
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 4, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
It's alright in that it's free, but it constantly wants to update itself, runs slow, and when I used it was
incompatible with most other programs. The word program wasn’t so bad even though nobody could open your
files, but if you’re just typing something to print out it’s not so bad.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 4, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Just save them as .docs instead of .ods or whatever their format is
Then anyone can open them.
Looking for work editing video or in live production. Please help.
by staplemaniac on Sep 4, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
You couldn't save them like that when I used it, perhaps they have added that function
You could only save as .ods or .star or whatever it was.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 4, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Office is super duper cheap if you are a student
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
Open office is super free
The girls left. According to one patron, Hamilton, piss-drunk by that point, asked the manager where he could buy blow. The manager didn't know. "Let's go to a strip club," Hamilton said. Someone drove Hamilton to Les Girls in Phoenix, Arizona.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Sep 4, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Just call him the Swagg Flu
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Sep 4, 2009 12:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He mentions CC, Upton, Jennings for next year
Considering we also have Joyce……what scenario do you feel will most likely play out?
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
Dunno.
Guessing Joyce if it’s just one spot.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
So what happens with Jennings then?
He is too good to rot in AAA? Do you think it is more likely we trade him, or one of CC or Upton?
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
Someone would have to throw their entire system to get Deezy
Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz
Rot in AAA?
300 more PA’s would do him well.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 4, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay 300 PAs later
Who gets moved? This is what I’m asking. If nobody gets moved then yes he will rot or Joyce will rot.
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
Or to clarify; what would you prefer to have happen
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
In terms of who you'd want moved?
In order of who I would trade:
Crawford
Upton
Joyce
Jennings
Based on age, contract, position, etc.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Those two were the toughest.
Depends on the day, really.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Upton's at his lowest value.
The savings is the only benefit of trading Upton over Joyce (I guess the return), but you need some stars. A team of average players wins 81 games. A team of average players and 3 stars wins 90+.
But I'm not saying trade him.
And I think Desmond Jennings will be a star.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh.
Joyce
+ Cost control for longer
+ Left-handed
+ More likely to get 1-2 one of his prime seasons.
- Not as talented
- Doesn’t play center
Upton
+ Cost control
+ Center field
+ High ceiling
- Injuries
- Probably leaving via FA
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
he can play center, no?
who knows how good he could be there
I'd guess average-ish.
He won’t have to with B.J./Desmond around though.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Trade Craw
We aren’t in a position where someone could bend us over a barrel on Craw because we can keep Sick Nasty down as long as we need to. If I know you as well as I think I do you’re in favor of extending Craw and trading Upton, am I getting warm? He’s a young man that needs to prove he can play 150+ games.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 4, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually no
If you look at my roster survey fanpost I am for trading CC, Bartlett, and Garza all by the end of next year.
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
I didn't take that seriously
I’m saving that for post-hot stove season
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 4, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I do agree on all those moves, however
Preferably Bartlett/Garza offseason, Craw trade deadline.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 4, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually see no reason to trade Upton
His value is in the dumps compared to where it should/could be. And he is cheap. And he has tons of upside. The potential for bust is definitely there, but considering for the time being he is cheap I see no reason to move Upton.
Actually in terms of who I’d prefer to trade it would be:
CC
Jennings
Joyce
Upton
But a huge drop off in my desire to trade from CC to Jennings. That list is based upon a trade off between cost, what they can bring back in a trade, and future performance.
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
I didn't say trade him.
But he’s got three years until he bolts and he’s going to get some money in arb.
Jennings is a 3-4 WAR player under control for six years and he plays center. I’m keeping him no matter what.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd rather have Jennings than Upton, but....
The much higher value Jennings has right now, plus the probability of Upton turning it on in the future greatly boosting his value is what causes me to rather trade Jennings than Upton. With Joyce I think he is undervalued in the market. If I had to choose I’d trade Jennings now, and get a massive return, and then trade BJ in a couple years and get a good return off of his bounceback. I think that would give us better value (in the trade and on the field) than pawning BJ at his low.
But like I said there is a huge gap between CC and Jennings. If I had to scale them 1-10 with 10 being the highest desire to trade
CC-9
Jennings-3
Joyce-2.5
Upton-2
So as you can see I want a Jennings, Upton, Joyce OF
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
We're going to have to disagree on Joyce/Jennings.
I’m a fan of both though.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Jennings is far better
I think Joyce is undervalued on the market. If I had to deal one, I’d deal the one where i thought I was getting back equal value. We got Joyce for freaking Edwin Jackson for god sakes.
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
Since when has a team ever given up a massive return for a prospect?
Why trade a possible future star that is cheap unless you are in a “win-now” mentality. That is something we will never see the Rays do.
Re-allocate resources
If they plan on doing CC, BJ, Joyce long term then they should trade Jennings to fill holes elsewhere (future 1B, C, etc).
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
But who would trade top-shelf cheap talent at those positions?
That’s the issue I see. We need high-end position prospects? Why trade the only bit of it we have? I just think it is far more likely we entertain thoughts of trading the expensive depth. What was the last high-end prospect swap you saw?
I would think they want Jennings to prove he can stay healthy another season before giving him the keys to the Craw Car
Joyce is up next year, any word on his defense in Durham? I always though UZR overrated him in that incredibly small sample they had. CF should not be an option.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 4, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
BA likes his defense.
As do most people I talk to.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
That's been in the back of my mind, Sandoozle.
The Precioussss has to prove durability. I don’t think we’ll see him before next year’s deadline.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
I'd be fine with that
Crawford to a desperate Rangers team for one of their flawed catchers, an arm, and a bat.
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Just wondering....
How does he compare to the likes of Fowler, McCutchen, and Granderson
Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz
maybin too
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
Don't forget Brett Gardner, Vernon Wells, Adam Jones, and Dingleberry
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 4, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Brett Gardner and Ellsbury aren't black.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 4, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly....I don't care about how he compares ot white players...
Swav or Die (>'-')> <('-')> <('-'<)
For the lulz
white men have an automatic CF UZR deducation
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
Ellsbury has been more oppressed than any black man
He has been playing for firewater and beads the last 3 years
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 4, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you throw Gardner in just because we need a token white guy?
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
He's in the AL East
I like the comp because he gives us a data point for an all-glove, no-stick CF.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 4, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
so does it make me racist if I praise Hellickson for his AAA success
but don’t for Deezy?
but srsly I’m starting to come around, he’s been up for what a month now and has more SB than K
Are you kidding?
Jeezy>>>>>Hellickson
He’s a positional prospect, so he has a much higher liklihood of success. He has arguably the best tools of any prospect in baseball, so he has HUGE star potential. What are the odds Hellickson is a 6-win player? Slim-to-none. Jennings? Much higher.
What is your basis for this?
This just reads like crazy scout wannabe man-love for Jennings and utter disregard for Hellickson’s performance.
Am I missing something, or is that exactly what you’re saying?
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Sep 4, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
What aren't you seeing?
Jennings has produced at the same level that Hellickson has. Positional prospects have a much, much higher success rate. generally, Hellickson has been seen as a guy taht doesn’t have the stuff to tun into an ace pitcher. There are very, very few pitchers that consistantly produce 6 win seasons. There are more bats that do. I like Hellickson more and more as a prospect everyday, but the same goes for DJ.
What does Hellickson have on Jennings?
To my eyes
Hellickson’s performance is that of an ace. He misses bats at a tremendous rate and at all levels except for one (which was skewed by a single start due to SSS) he keeps the ball in the park. I recognize that scouts in the past haven’t seen him as an ace. Perhaps fittingly here at DRB, when stats and scouts disagree, I lean toward the stats.
Jennings has major tools, but I think his performance is that of a very good player, not an “ace”. (Yeah, I know, we don’t call position players aces. You get my point.) Scouts love him and drool over his tools. (We’ve heard that before around here, right Delmon?) But his performance does not yet match those tools. For example, so far he has not displayed much power except for the one month (SSS) in Durham. (Unlike Delmon, who also put up fantastic numbers in the minors.) Is that month his real level of power performance? Even if not, will he develop it someday? Perhaps. By that time will his speed have eroded? Perhaps.
You put Jennings>>>>>Hellickson. I’m not convinced. To me, as of this moment, it’s more like Hellickson>Jennings, with the slight edge to Hellickson because of the longer elite-level AAA performance.
Mind you, I like them both. It just boggles my mind when posters at a stats-oriented site like DRB repeat the scouts’ canard that Hellickson doesn’t have ace stuff. The numbers say he does, and around here I thought we believed that the numbers don’t lie.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Sep 4, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
His stats are great, though.
His wOBA+ is 121 and 130 this year in AA and AAA respectively.
Delmon (at a younger age, yes, but with more pro experience) didn’t touch his production. Jennings is already a better batter than Delmon was. he’s seemingly more coachable, and his spproach at the plate seems to be great. He’s got world-class speed, and his power is fine for a young guy. He probably won’t hit 30 HRs. but he probably will have at least as much power as CC (largely because of the difference in approach). that is a big reason DY never added power either.
Hellickson’s numbers are great, but I still wonder if his body/stuff can translate to a guy that gives you 200+ great IP.
Maybe the excessive use of “greater than” signs was a bit much, but I think DJ has Hellickson beat on ceiling, floor, and position.
And by position...
I mean that a top 10 positional prospect is “worth more” than a top 10 pitching prospect.
From Victor Wang's research via Sky Kalkman:
Top 10 hitting prospects $36.5M
Top 11-25 hitters $25.1
Top 26-50 hitters $23.4
Top 51-75 hitters $14.2
Top 76-100 hitters $12.5
Top 10 pitching prospects $15.2
Top 11-25 pitchers $15.9
Top 26-50 pitchers $15.9
Top 51-75 pitchers $12.1
Top 76-100 pitchers $9.8
Grade B pitchers (as graded by Sickels)
$7.3
Grade B hitters $5.5
Grade C pitchers 22 or younger $2.1
Grade C pitchers 23 or older $1.5
Grade C hitters 22 or younger $0.7
Grade C hitters 23 or older $0.5
Agreed
I know this place is not big on quoting BP, but the cliche TINSTAPP arose for a reason. That point I’ll concede.
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Sep 4, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Old BP is fine.
The new stuff may fall on deaf ears. FG pretty much did them in for me.
TINSTAPP is pretty much what this is all about for me.
Humor
My best friend makes smart ass remarks like that all the time. Right after saying something he should get punched for, he gives you a smile like your avatar picture. He is 5’-5". Is there a connection?
That's very encouraging
Floor for both is a complete bust, so that’s a tie. We both hope that doesn’t happen, but let’s be realistic: sometimes it does. And that’s what “floor” is all about to me.
Ceiling for Hellickson is ace starter IMO, ceiling for Jennings is a more powerful CC. Edge Jennings. But slight.
Position? Edge Jennings.
My only point is that, as of right now, I’m slightly more confident Hellickson can reach his ceiling than I am that Jennings can, based on their respective performance to date.
But your last response seals the deal. You love toolsy outfielders. :-)
by Not Whole View Gang survivor on Sep 4, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I tend to exagerrate.
I don’t mind being called on it and enjoying a logical discussion. Either way, I am STILL excited about the youngsters in the org.
All things being equal
what are the estimated MLB arrivals (long term, not a quick cup of coffee) for
- Joyce
- Jennings
- Perez
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
There.
I hid the offensive remark.
Let’s get back to good discussion.
My bad. I’ll try to keep it in conttrol.
How will anyone know about your scholarship, now?
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
Please.
Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
We also would have accepted a joke inferring he has both male and female parts
www.bucem.com - SBNation's source for all things Buccaneer
Who got rid of my contribution to this thread?
The girls left. According to one patron, Hamilton, piss-drunk by that point, asked the manager where he could buy blow. The manager didn't know. "Let's go to a strip club," Hamilton said. Someone drove Hamilton to Les Girls in Phoenix, Arizona.
That makes less sense than your normal bouts of typed diarrhea, user "Sandy Kazmir"
The girls left. According to one patron, Hamilton, piss-drunk by that point, asked the manager where he could buy blow. The manager didn't know. "Let's go to a strip club," Hamilton said. Someone drove Hamilton to Les Girls in Phoenix, Arizona.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Sep 4, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
DRB user/ junkie
The girls left. According to one patron, Hamilton, piss-drunk by that point, asked the manager where he could buy blow. The manager didn't know. "Let's go to a strip club," Hamilton said. Someone drove Hamilton to Les Girls in Phoenix, Arizona.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Sep 4, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
My Deezy thoughts:
In my eyes, he’s untouchable. He’s a top flight positional prospect in a system void of them. Yes Hellickson is nice. Yes Davis is nice. We have a glutton of arms, though; and for a team that needs cheap star-level talent, he’s about as good as it gets.
His production at AA/AAA is even more impressive than it seems at his age because he is relatively inexperienced compared to other players of the same age. He lost time to football and injuries, so in reality he is a lot closer to most 20-YO as far as top level competition. Everyone drooled over his tools at the AFL (when he was recovering from an injury), and now he has the performance to match.
He’s a top 10 prospect right now that will be a CF. A very good one. On talent/MLB readiness alone he may be the best prospect in baseball.
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