What's wrong with Howell this season?
by Ray St. Pete on Sep 5, 2009 10:11 PM EDT
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PrintWhat the crap has gotten into J.P. Howell this season? Last year, he was one of our best arms out of the pen. This year, no lead is safe with him. I cringe everytime Maddon brings him in. He's given up game-winning HR's in extra innings, in the bottom of the 9th, he's given up the lead in the 8th inning, etc. And he's done it once again tonite. Bases loaded with 1 out, he just barely avoided a grand slam from the Tigers. Very next pitch, he gives up a single to left and in doing so, gives up the lead. Maddon has again, gone out to the mound to pull. The difference here is that last season, Howell was a set up guy, or a middle relief pitcher. This season, Maddon has tried him as the teams closer. And it has back fired TERRIBLY. There should be two big areas the Rays ought to look at correcting this off season: getting a true closer (or at least a reliable reliever), and looking at our catching situation. On a related note, Friedman's decision to pass up Victor Martinez still has me frustrated. We passed on an All-Star catcher who has been nothing short of hot since going to Boston, and instead get an aging 38 year old catcher in Gregg Zaun. Zaun has filled in decently and has batted over .300 since joining Tampa Bay. But I would much rather have a player the caliber of Victor Martinez instead of Zaun. Not to mention the fact that in passing him up, he goes to our arch rival whom we're staring up at in 1st place in the Wild Card race. So please, Andrew Friedman, try and get us a decent catcher this off season. And more importantly, a solid relief pitcher so that we can move Howell back into his better role where games aren't on the line. You've been a sensational GM in turning around our franchise. But there have been two (and only two) moves that you've recently made that I think has really blown up in all of our faces- signing Pat Burrell and passing on Victor Martinez.
This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.
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Actling like Howell sucks rubs me the wrong way.
I try to avoid flaming nowadays, but whatever. Don’t sign up to bash someone when you have zero facts to support your argument.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 5, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm incredibly stupid?
So you’re gonna tell me that you think J.P. Howell has pitched fine this season? Tell me you’re joking. I’m not “bashing” Howell. He was great last year. I’m merely stating a fact that he has played very poorly this year and should not be the closer.
All the “facts”? Point proven everytime he comes in a tight situation with a 1 run lead. That’s all the proof I need.
by Ray St. Pete on Sep 5, 2009 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
He has a 3.64 FIP and a 3.81 tRA.
Read this if you have no idea what that means.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 6, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Howell has entered with a 1 run lead 12 times this year and allowed an earned run three times.
So yeah, every time.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 6, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
well he has all those stats to back........oh wait no he doesn't
and anyone who thinks gregg zaun hasn’t been a good addition to the team is an idiot
Over the Monster: an unofficial blog for Red Sox bandwagon "Fans"
Well, any closer that fails 1 out of 4 times
is flirting with losing his job. That isn’t a great performance, despite the original post’s overstatements.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 8, 2009 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Played poorly.
Here’s a list of relievers with FIP worse than Howell this year, min ~30 IP:
Nick Masset
Hideki Okajima
Jeff Fulchino
Blaine Boyer
Mark DiFelice
Darren Oliver
Evan Meek
Matt Albers
Pedro Feliciano
Fernando Rodney
Carlos Fisher
Jared Burton
Sean White
Matt Guerrier
Jesse Carlson
Brandon League
Manny Delcarmen
Bob Howry
Lance Cormier
Alfredo Aceves
Matt Lindstrom
Jon Rauch
Francisco Rodriguez
Octavio Dotel
Edward Mujica
LaTroy Hawkins
Esmerling Vasquez
Cla Meredith
Brandon Lyon
Dan Meyer
Daniel Herrera
Takashi Saito
Brian Fuentes
Bobby Jenks
Tony Pena
Carlos Marmol
Renyel Pinto
Jose Mijares
Shawn Camp
Jesse Chavez
Brandon Medders
Joe Beimel
Carlos Villanueva
Jason Bulger
Kerry Wood
Jim Johnson
Kyle McClellan
Zach Miner
Merkin Valdez
John Grabow
Angel Guzman
Sean Green
Dan Wheeler
Ryan Perry
Danys Baez
Aaron Heilman
Greg Burke
Ramon Ramirez
Guillermo Mota
Justin Miller
Sean Burnett
Jason Jennings
Brian Stokes
Craig Breslow
Leo Nunez
Mike MacDougal
Tim Byrdak
Justin Speier
R.A. Dickey
Jeff Bennett
Kevin Gregg
Scott Linebrink
Matt Capps
Miguel Batista
Phil Coke
Juan Cruz
Jamey Wright
Brian Bass
Santiago Casilla
Chris Jakubauskas
Chad Durbin
Jason Motte
David Weathers
Seth McClung
Jensen Lewis
Luis Perdomo
Joe Nelson
Ron Mahay
Brad Lidge
That’s our of like 140 or so qualified relievers. So, Howell is in the top third, and you’re saying he’s pitched really poorly?
You must have unrealistically high standards or an extremely short memory.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 6, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, his WPA is only about average this year, which may be indirectly contributing to origional poster's aggitation
That’s obviously not a skill though as his WPA was awesome last year, and his ERA/FIP/tRA is awesome.
Smoltz.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 6, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
also, Navi + Zaun = a good catcher
I’ll take their platooned production at 4 million. Its not great, but its not breaking the bank. This is not / should not be one of our main concerns (bolstering first and catcher in the minor league system is a bigger priority)…
BUT GEOFF ZAUN IS OLDDD........
and i like the gregg zaun side of the platoon but one can’t help but wonder if there is a better option for the Navi side
Over the Monster: an unofficial blog for Red Sox bandwagon "Fans"
there probably is somewhere
but Navi is still young and should put up a .700 OPS (he always has, even this year if I’m not mistaken) against lefties, not great (especially at the price), but I’d rather him than have Zaun and his low OPS against lefties up there instead. Also, if certain pitchers (Niemann has shown to possibly like throwing to Navi) are used to him then he could become their personal catcher type (although I don’t like this rationale.) Also, I’m a Navi fan and truthfully think he turns it around at least a little bit. His BABIP on GBs is so horrendously low that you think someone would have cursed him.
But… point taken.
i know navi could bounce back but we have some players that could be traded this offseason that could bring a good/ decent return
so we should see which catchers are availible. but i do think that the platoon should produce fairly well for the price
*yawn*
you think Navi brings back a return?
I SEVERELY doubt it. I don’t want to just release him, either. Having Navi in AAA does us little good I.M.O., because the difference between another lefty hitting option and him shouldn’t be more than 50-75 OPS points over about 200 PA and we’d probably have to pay 1 mil+. I just don’t see it worth the price, but if Navi brings back a passable prospect and a young/cheap option for the other half of the platoon exists then I’d probably start looking into it.
Ray, not sure what line of work you're in, but do you think they would fire you based on one bad month?
When the other 5 you have been one of the best on the planet. His August was not good, Sept. is young, but April – July was outstanding. I think you just have a case of what have you done for me lately? Not uncommon, people become most susceptible when jumping on and off a bandwagon.
Embrace Eternity
Frankly, plenty get fired for 1 bad incident.
I’m not trying to defend the poster here, but failure in the closer role is going to lead to job reassignment in many cases. Howell has performed well this season, and he is having a bad stretch.
The Bible here seems to be morphing to something that says an established closer isn’t necessary. Seems to me the mantra should be that closers not named Mariano (gotta get my boy’s back) shouldn’t be paid $10+MM per, nor used in such a stilted manner that they only pitch the 9th.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 8, 2009 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Attention
This Fan Post got more attention than it deserves. Maybe sternfan1 opened a new account.
Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame
ooooo...a stupid fanpost
REC’D
2009 Rays Baseball: Welp.....we'll try again in 2010
Be a TRUE Seminole: http://www.seminoles.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/071509aab.html
Since Howell is cooked
(go ahead, try, you cannot deny it), any chance of Maddon using Davis in the role, kinda like Price last year?
The Rays now have 6 starters, so it appears one of them is going to the bullpen.
Yes, we should move a promising young starter to the bullpen for minimal gains over four weeks.
Do you people actually think about this stuff before commenting?
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 6, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I think plenty,
and I’m not wondering if the Rays will mimic the clusterfuck that is Joba, but having a young starter cut his teeth in the pen is not the worst idea in the world. Matter of fact, it’s pretty standard fare for teams with starter depth.
RJ
understand where you’re coming from here. If the Rays were in contention then there might be a germ of validity to the Davis suggestion.But given the state of things, starting is what he needs to do.
Not sure about the Joba clusterf*** thing either, but I’ll leave that aside for now.
But really, RJ, you’re getting so edgy – you need to hang with your boy JP and chill, if you catch my waft.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 8, 2009 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Obviously,
Howell has not brought his Z-game this season.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
JP Howell
Instead of worrying about Howell so much, since he’s just in a slump, why don’t we look at some of the other unecessary guys filling up our bullpen right now: Tampa Sports Report
enough with the stats...
if going on a rant about how bad someone is use actually instances, and stop using overly mathmatical stats! you cant ultimatley mesaure a players perfomance over a season. howell does not have closer stuff, he has middle reliever stuff for only 1-2 batters and mostly for lefties. why? instead of FIP/ERA/OBAA/SO/BS how bout we just judge his attributes.
fastball; D+ (not enough command or movement to be that slow)
breakingball; B+,(one of the best,
lacks command at times)
change up; C+ ( not enough movement but good command)
so basically hes at his best as a situational pitcher where he can use his breaking ball against lefties.
JP has actually been decidedly better against righties all season
His stuff is elite. You’re only remembering this last couple of weeks. The rest of the season he was lights out against everyone. I think your eyes remember this, but your brain doesn’t want to believe it.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 8, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
HAHA ELITE?
no i definatley didnt forget, in JUNE-JULY i was suprised how well he was doing, I constanly said “you know hes throwing a breaking ball?”
and you have to be joking about ELITE. a 85 mph fastball with avg movement is no where near ELITE .his breaking ball has constanly been his best pitch wich at times is definatley ELITE, but is also wild at times. his change up is good too but no where near ELITE.
i watched him pitch in the WBC and he was pitching just like he has been pitching of late.
im not knocking him, hes a solid middle reliever, one of the best. but doesnt have the stuff to be a closer in this league.
and yes he has been better against righties. dont give me a stat but please simply explain why he has been better agaisnt righties. maybe his change up has more movement away then i orinally stated. but i would assume when he makes a mistake it exposes him to lefties more then righties, such as breaking ball hanging. since against lefties there would be more of a chance of him leaving one over the plate and against a righty hes not using the breaking ball as much therefor reducing his chance of hanging one over the plate. just a theory, whats yours?
His changeup is sick
He kills righties with it. Here’s a top-down view of his 4 pitches:
via. Brooks
As you can see, it comes in straight and then with about 25 feet to go it starts to fade away. It moves almost 7 inches away from righties, after looking like a fat pitch. That is from a randomly selected appearance June 12th against Washington.
Another advantage is that he is incredibly deceptive. His violent throwing motion allows him to hide the ball very effectively. Add this to that chart and most batters can’t pick him up right away. With all that movement, on all his pitches, it’s not surprising to see him go through a patch where he’s trying to be too fine. I think Langerhans got in his head, personally.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 9, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
OK that was the numbers-free side
I wanted to include a link to a study done by Harry Pavlidis. If you think I’m an idiot, that is fine, get in line, but Harry is a smart, smart guy. Check THIS out.
Embrace Eternity
Also, meant to include this
Fangraphs has him as having the 75th most effect fastball among relievers. Which we kind of knew since it averages 85, but he only uses it 45% of the time. On the other hand, his curveball is 29th and his change is 24th. Those are two ELITE pitches. Throwing the fastball to keep guys honest is a necessity (Right Sonny?). JP has pitched as well as all the Big Dog closers that you can name, for mere pennies on the pound. I’ve tried to explain using numbers and not using numbers, perhaps you could put into words what your eyes see that mine don’t?
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 9, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
OK ill meet you HALF way, im sure you dont know what that is...
clearly i was wrong his stuff is dominant enough to be more then a situational pitcher, and yes his offspeed pitches do add 10mph to his fastball. if i had to chose anyone out of our bulpen its him.
BUT i will NOT concede his stuff is so dominant that hes a lights out closer. sure we are a small market team so we cant go get a big name closer. i got that. but why is it that we just now recently went to him to close? and why is it he was yanked as the closer so fast? and do you really think he is going to be out only closer next season? so yea im sure you think you know more then i do, but if next season he isnt our closer then i guess the Rays managers just dont know what you know either. right?
so how bout this, if next year he is our closer and end up having a great year ill think back to you and this site and realize wow i dont know as much as i thought. but if not dont continue to go on here and rant and rave about how great JP is with some crazy stat. if he doesnt get the job, or doesnt get the job done just freaking meet me where i am about him. great middle releiver. not elite but great.
Why would you try to insult me in your title (im sure you dont know what that is...) this makes you look stupid
It’s not that we can’t afford a “big name closer”, it’s that it is an incredibly inefficient use of constrained dollars. He’s been closing since they end of June and just recently has lost his control. He was yanked because his leash is a choke-chain at this point. If he wasn’t thrust into situations of RISP with <2 outs, then he would probably be pitching better. Personally, I think he has been a different guy since Langerhans took him deep up in Seattle. I hope he is not our “closer” next season. I think it was a mistake by Joe to use him only in the 9th (or troubled 8th) when the guy is best used as a fireman that can step up to any task, any inning. I would prefer he slide back into that role and someone like Thayer can slide into that “not a big deal” 9th inning.
When have I given you the impression that I know more than you? Perhaps it is because I type correctly. Lends a little more credence to my argument, I suppose. Or maybe it is that you come in here ranting about things you can’t prove and then when confronted with evidence to the contrary you baldly state that statistics are not relevant. When have a I ranted or raved about anything to you? I’m calmer than you are, I assure you. Lastly, I’m not sure the degrees of difference between elite and great. Perhaps you could point me to some sort of statistic that quantitatively shows me what exactly each of those means. Saying J. P. is a great reliever is not a compromise position. It is merely my argument, that you think you can slyly jump on. Nice try, nobody cares about you.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 10, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I had to rec this
WHOO, LUKE! LUKE! LUKE!
ALSO! NOW THE HEAD OF THE PUFFY-ROD BANDWAGON.
by 4QB on Sep 9, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
BTW this guy who posted this is an idiot.
dont put me in that group with him, he clearly does not watch the rays. the whole thing about him cringing when howell comes in, or the victor martinez thing is pretty sad.
Are you kidding me?
I watch 150+ games a year. You are the idiot. I cringe when Shouse comes in. I cringe when Choate comes in. I cringe when Balfour gets to a 3 ball count. I cringe when our starter is taken out. I cringed when Izzy’s arm detached. These are the things I cringe about. JP puts a smile on my face as grown men flail at his stuff. Nice try troll. You truly are pathetic.
Embrace Eternity
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 10, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
SNG?
WHOO, LUKE! LUKE! LUKE!
ALSO! NOW THE HEAD OF THE PUFFY-ROD BANDWAGON.
by 4QB on Sep 9, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Ahh, thank you
WHOO, LUKE! LUKE! LUKE!
ALSO! NOW THE HEAD OF THE PUFFY-ROD BANDWAGON.
by 4QB on Sep 9, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions
relief pitching in general
My observation is the inconsistent and incomplete use of the bullpen is a primary cause of the disappointing last month or so.
Bringing pitchers into a game, warmed up, watching them retire a batter or two, and then bringing in another pitcher for only a batter or two seems to be the Tony LaRussa School of Wasting Pitchers. Having 6,7, or 8 pitchers in the bullpen is excessive and negates other possibilities (old fashioned platooning for example).
If one pitcher is successful on a particular evening then why not use him to the fullest – theoretical matchups advantage be damned. Cut the usage from 4 pitchers to get the last six outs to one or two.
by kimo from kauai on Sep 9, 2009 12:08 AM EDT reply actions
I think the problem with Howell lately is he is allowing inherited runners to score
But then again Maddon puts him in with the bases loaded and less than 2 outs. Pretty tough job.
Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.
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