The Ray’s bullpen has been discussed at great lengths on this site and on (cringe) local talk radio lately, with many fans expressing concerns about the high leverage relievers in our bullpen. 

This is no doubt a reaction to the string of late inning losses over the last few weeks, and that is understandable.  Most people watch sports and have a very visceral reaction to a pitcher standing on the mound while the other team hopes around on home plate.  This ability to invoke deep positive and negative sentiment in a fan base is what makes sports enjoyable and frankly, profitable. 

But as a fan, or at least someone who wants to see there team become/remain competitive, we know that one should hope the managers of an organization act in a completely objective manner.  This is not a new mindset for many of the readers and the curators of this site, but it has to be reinforced from time to time.  Consider Billy Beane, notorious for having a bad temper, refuses to watch A’s games, fearing it would affect his objectivity.  Good for him.

Refusing to react with emotion and whim often puts coaches and management at constant odds with its casual fan base. A typical fan, while slowing becoming more educated, often makes judgments based on observations in situations of high leverage (when it hurts the most), and uses small sample size.  Egged on, no doubt, by local sports writers (who do the same), this leads to the types of negative reactions running wild amongst our fellow Rays fans.  But they are not the enemy, (Kevin Youkilis and Jerry Bruckheimer are.)

So, my rant, redundant to most who read this site, leads me to the following:  As we look forward to the next season, the two big areas that should be evaluated are the catcher and the bullpen.  But a good to great bullpen, or at least the foundation for a great bullpen, exists. So after a rough few weeks, here is an update on the overall 2009 picture of guys that will be pitching for us next year:

JP Howell: 

WAR: 1.1        WAR Value:  $4.9MM FIP:  3.67         K/BB:  2.54

Not doubt, most of our fans see only the 5 losses and 8 blown saves and decide they want to ship Howell back to the Royals and bring in someone like Bobby Jenks or Brian Fuentes.  Both, historically, very good relief pitchers, with a lot of saves, but not nearly as valuable as Howell this year,  in what some are now calling an awful year.

Jenks:               WAR .6           WAR Value:  $2.7MM             FIP:  4.10

Fuentes:            WAR .2           WAR Value:  $1.1MM             FIP:  4.50

By the way, the list goes on (We could have brought in Fransisco Rodriguez, JJ Putz, Kerry Wood.)

Gant Balfour:

WAR: 1.0        WAR Value:  $4.5MM FIP:  3.49         K/BB:  2.07

Grant has been really good this year.  In terms of value, certainly in the top 25 for relief pitchers.  I’ll take that same pitcher next year.  I don’t think anyone expected an FIP of 2.22 again. 

Lance Cormier:

WAR: 0.6        WAR Value:  $2.8MM FIP:  3.86         K/BB:  1.75

Taking into account his lefty/righty splits, Cormier should be used in more high leverage situations next year.  The season he is having this year is not the statistical anomaly one would think when you separate his career relief appearances from his days as a starter/spot starter.

These 3 make a cheap and solid, if not great, foundation to start next year.  All who can be still used as a “closer” depending on the situation.

This leave four/five more spots:

• One year we don’t need a LOOGY the next we need 3.  The hope is we keep one next year.   

• Thayer should get a look, probably Sonny as well.

Considering salary, who could you see filling 3 spots in our pen via trade or Free Agency?