A Look at Some ISO Comps for Pat the Bat
by FreeZorilla on Jan 12, 2010 12:00 PM EST
34 comments
Pat Burrell was dreadful in 2009. We waited, and we waited, yet the turnaround and adjustments did not come. Did the Bat go limp at the age of 32? Burrell's ISO dropped .111 year/year in his first season with the Rays, finishing at .146. I thought it might be interesting to look at some comparables. This sample set consists of right-handed batters who played in 2005 or later who have an average ISO between the ages of 27 and 31 of .200-.253. The sample set consists of 12 names: Pat Burrell, Vladimer Guerrero, Andruw Jones, Derrek Lee, Carlos Lee, Paul Konerko, Gary Sheffield, Alfonso Soriano, Magglio Ordonez, Jeff Kent, Morgan Ensberg, and Torii Hunter.
Here is a table with the average ISO of the group based on age:
|
Age |
Average |
|
27 |
0.219 |
|
28 |
0.231 |
|
29 |
0.227 |
|
30 |
0.242 |
|
31 |
0.216 |
|
32 |
0.219 |
|
33 |
0.185 |
|
34 |
0.225 |
|
35 |
0.191 |
You can see the decline heading into the 30's bottoming out (with help from Ensberg) at 33.
Below is a table with each player's worst ISO (wISO) between the ages of 30-33. The next column over displays the year/year decline, followed by the following season's ISO, and lastly the +/- from the wISO.
|
Player |
Age |
wISO |
Decline |
fISO |
Change |
|
Ensberg |
33 |
0.041 |
-0.133 |
None |
??? |
|
Ajones |
31 |
0.091 |
-0.100 |
0.246 |
0.155 |
|
Ordonez |
31 |
0.134 |
-0.059 |
0.179 |
0.045 |
|
Burrell |
32 |
0.146 |
-0.111 |
??? |
??? |
|
Dlee |
33 |
0.172 |
-0.024 |
0.273 |
0.101 |
|
Soriano |
33 |
0.182 |
-0.07 |
??? |
??? |
|
Hunter |
30 |
0.183 |
-0.021 |
0.212 |
0.029 |
|
Clee |
33 |
0.189 |
-0.066 |
??? |
??? |
|
Konerko |
32 |
0.199 |
-0.032 |
0.212 |
0.013 |
|
Sheffield |
33 |
0.205 |
-0.067 |
0.274 |
0.069 |
|
Kent |
33 |
0.209 |
-0.053 |
0.252 |
0.043 |
|
Guerrero |
33 |
0.218 |
-0.005 |
0.164 |
-0.054 |
|
Avg |
0.164 |
-0.062 |
0.227 |
0.050 |
Of these players, Ordonez, Andruw Jones, and Derrek Lee match Burrell as players who fizzled the year after signing a big contract.
|
Player |
Age |
wISO |
Year |
Yrs |
$mil |
|
Ajones |
31 |
0.091 |
1 |
2 |
36.2 |
|
Ordonez |
31 |
0.134 |
1 |
5 |
75 |
|
Burrell |
32 |
0.146 |
1 |
2 |
16 |
|
Dlee |
33 |
0.172 |
1 |
5 |
65 |
We will look at the extreme cases of Ensberg and Jones below, followed by individual graphs of each comp. You can see generally regardless of age, players show the ability to bounce back from random season's with larger than expected decreases in power.
Morgan Ensberg
See that orange line falling so hard and fast that its threatening to break the X axis? That's 2009 Rays Spring Training invitee Morgan Ensberg. This is the situation we desperately need Burrell to avoid. To be fair, Ensberg was considerably more volatile year/year than Burrell. Ensberg had a monster 2005 at the age of 30, posting a wOBA of .395. He followed it up with a bizarre 2006 where he walked 101 times with 91 hits. At the age of 32 his walks fell to 11.9% and his ISO to .174. At 33, he cracked the X axis in a limited role with the Yankees. No injuries to blame, just washed up young. So let it not be with Pat Burrell.
Andruw Jones
This exercise made me remember that Andruw Jones is not 40. Some guys just seem like they have been around forever. For as much as we don't want Pat Burrell to be the next Morgan Ensberg, the Andruw Jones ISO bounce back would suffice as an endgame to Burrell's time with the Rays. The Braves figured they would lose Andruw Jones after 2007 due to his free agent market value being out of their reach. It turns out they would simply not want him back after his slash ended up at .222/.311/.414. Jones showed up twenty pounds overweight the following season wth the Dodgers after signing a 2 year/$36 million deal, Its hard to believe he was only 3 years removed from posting a UZR in CF of 30. HIs strikeout rate had risen to 36.4% (career 22.4%) and his ISO fell to .091 (career .231). The Rangers took a shot on Jones in 2009 though he remained overweight and a rather large shadow of his former self in centerfield. While his batting average remained putrid at .211, his walks climbed back to 13.8% and his ISO rose back to .246. Jones had a world of talent, but his weight gain may show he does not have his heart in the game. This has been an argument used against Burrell after signing his fat contract, but hopefully a new contract year will lead to improved results.
Andruw Jones
|
Season |
K% |
ISO |
wOBA |
|
2005 |
19.10% |
0.312 |
0.382 |
|
2006 |
22.50% |
0.269 |
0.375 |
|
2007 |
24.10% |
0.191 |
0.314 |
|
2008 |
36.40% |
0.091 |
0.234 |
|
2009 |
25.60% |
0.246 |
0.338 |
Other Comps:
Derrek Lee shows a Burrell like spike in 2006 with two more years of declined power to follow. What did Lee's 2006 have in common with Burrell's 2009? Prior to 2006, Lee inked a 5 year, $65 million deal. As Lee nears his free agency after this season, the power has reemerged. Let's hope the Bat follows the contract path of Derrek Lee.
A pair of steady decliners beginning in their 20's. No cliff dive found here like Burrell's 2009.
Sheffield's been volatile, but its been between elite and this crop.
Ordonez's low point at 31 came just after he signed his 5 year, $75 million deal.
Barring an Ensberg-like total evaporation of skill, Pat Burrell should certainly expect to see a bump in 2010. All the players who imploded after payday managed to turn things around near the next time they needed to whip out their John Hancocks. For this we should be grateful that the Rays signed Burrell to just a two-year deal. The age curve tells us not to expect 2008 Burrell, but an ISO around .200 should be within reach.
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It's Herbie Hancock, duh
It’s certainly in the realm of possibility that he has a repeat of last year. I would give the same chance to him repeating his 2008. He averaged a 0.380ish wOBA the 4 years prior to last. I’ll take a 0.360 at this point as long as he mashes lefties.
Pretty Pictures
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by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jan 12, 2010 12:40 PM EST reply actions
50% chance of repeating 2008?
History certainly says the odds are less, no?
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by FreeZorilla on Jan 12, 2010 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't mean to imply a closed set
Hypothetically, let’s say he has a 5% chance of repeating 2009 and the same for 2008. Just a quick guess, but lets try this
wOBA Likelihood
.300-.310 5% (2009)
.311-.320 10%
.321-.330 10%
.331-.340 10%
.341-.350 25%
.351-.360 20%
.361-.370 15%
.370-.380 5% (2008)
This is a complete WAG, but I would think that the point stands. I would put more weight at the right-side of the curve as he has shown a greater propensity to reside in that region.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jan 12, 2010 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
I'm an eediot
In my mind you said 2009 repeat. I agree with your point.
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Burrell xBABIP seemed to indicate that he was about .024
off his luck, but still, that can’t explain the precipitous drop in HR/FB or BB/K.
on Twitter @CubsStats23
I really think he can still mash it, though.
I can’t imagine a guy would go from mashing fastballs (wFB = ~25) to getting owned by them like an 85 year old minor leaguer (wFB = -5.0).
on Twitter @CubsStats23
Yea, I'm not too concerned about batting average
We brought PTB in for OBP and ISO. Struggling at the plate will usually result in a lower BB/K.
His O-Swing% was alarming last year. From 2004-2007 his OSwing% was 13.7%-15.6%. In 08 it climbed to 20.1%, in 09 22.7%.
I’m hopeful his impatience was a result of adjusting to the DH role. He also had a very high 62.7% F-Strike%, about 7-9% higher than typical Burrell. That could be an adjustment as well.
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Once you consider the difference from NL East to AL East...
Last year was pretty similar to 2003 for Burrell. His wOBA that season was .312 compared to .304. His SLG was almost under .400 and his BA was .209(very unlucky BABIP that yr). He bounced back for 5 consecutive plus years….lets hope he bounces back in 2010.
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I'm a Brett Favre honk so FUCK YOU!
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jan 12, 2010 2:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I've been pondering myself
what a good estimate for Burrell in 2010 is, purely from a HR standpoint.
He’s due to bounceback this year, but I wonder if we’re talking about him returning to somewhere around 25 homeruns, or if even those days are a thing of the past.
I understand player comps are more anecdotal than an attempt to provide evidence
But are you suggesting that contract year phenomena exist?
I was curious so I googled it and found this which claims they don’t exist, which I think intuitively is correct. As much as it’s fun to talk about somebody playing extra hard in a contract year and phoning it in after signing, it just seems like competition, pride, outside influence of trainers and coaches, etc, would keep people performing at their best.
I'm not as interested in contract year as the first year after signing a multi-yr
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I was lumping the two together.
Either way, that study claims both are bunk, but I don’t know how reputable it is.
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Jan 12, 2010 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
It discusses contract yrs
It also cites Baseball Between the #s found a half win improvement in contract yrs. I’ll have to go back and re-read the book. I think it is more likely some players let themselves go a bit in terms of conditioning following a contract yr.
Also the Holden Summers study cited found no contract yr link, but a significant yr after contract effect.
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THANKS JONAH!!!
Chapter 5-3 takes a look at this. The study looks at 212 “prominent” Free Agents.
They use WARP to look at walk year (WY), the preceding year (WY-1) and the following year (WY+1)
WY= 5.56
WY-1=5.08
WY+1=5.08
This represents “a 9.4% uptick in WARP.”
Players Peaking in Walk Year, Before, or After, 1976-2000
WY=37.7%
WY-1=34.0%
WY+1=28.3%
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jan 13, 2010 9:23 AM EST up reply actions
Interesting
I’d be curious to see a sampling from 1990-present, the larger contracts of the modern day could further discincentivize players after landing such cushy financial security. And of course, certain players would be more prone. OUtside of a change in physical conditioning, there’s not much of a way to speculate.
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Couldn't that also have to do with the possibility that most players become free agents at or around their peak age (~ 27 yrs.)?
So that if we look at their career arc, that could also do just as well to explain why the “Before” and “After” years don’t quite measure up?
I mean, I’m open to buying into this, but I’m also a bit skeptical of the idea that an MLB player would just decide, “F it all, I’m all set for retirement now, so I’ma just coast this year and put in more PS3 time instead of taking BP.” Burrell doesn’t strike me as the type, either.
by Zach Attack on Jan 13, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
I think you need to look at WY + 2
If WY+1 is < WY and WY +2, there could be validity (I mean the trend, not just PTB). It doesn’t mean the player doesn’t care or doesn’t try, he just may not train as hard, particularly in the offseason. Some players do show up overweight. Most of these studies adjust for aging curves anyway. I don’t think PTB tanked the season last year. It was a combination of injury, bad luck, adjsuting to the DH and AL, and maybe being a little bit out of shape. The guy won a WS and signed a huge contract, an offseason hangover woudl nto be unreasonable.
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by FreeZorilla on Jan 13, 2010 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
Word on the street is PTB has been working out hard at an Arizona facility this offseason
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by FreeZorilla on Jan 13, 2010 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
Area 51 I hope
Fuck the juice, get this man a titanium composite bat that looks and smells like real ash.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jan 13, 2010 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
"Some players do show up overweight."
True, like Andruw Jones. I don’t mean to say that there aren’t stragglers here and there throughout the league, but, personally, even if I’m Pat’s age, I’m going to work as hard as I can to succeed and bring in more ducats down the line, because he’s going to hit the wall in ~ 3 or 4 more years, and then he’s done forever. The whole “let’s take it a little easier this year” scenario may be true, but I’m just saying I’m skeptical… I think the “my body is aging and I feel really weird being a DH” scenario just makes more sense.
Bringing up the WS is a good point
I’ve seen it mentioned several places with pitchers tiring after pitching in the postseason, don’t know if it affects batters as much, but it does make sense that it would affect an older guy more.
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Jan 13, 2010 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
They actually mentioned that and I didn't feel like reproducing it, but
WY=31
WY-1=30
WY+1=32
Most guys don’t break in at 21. According to this, the average first year would be 24ish depending on clock manipulation. It doesn’t give a list of who is in the set, but 212 over a 25 year period seems like a reasonable enough sample. I just throw that in, because of the word “prominent” that they used. I have no idea what their process was to weed guys out as there have surely been more free agents than that over the period.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jan 13, 2010 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
Ah. If the average Walk Year is indeed ~ 31, then that does weigh in favor of this whole theory.
Because my thought was that the spike up and down would correlate with a player’s peak. From 30 to 32, it seems like most players would be experiencing a constant downward trend in their performance, not spiking up and then back down again.
It's not my data, so I can't vouch, but it seems pretty clean
My guess is that they took a lot of the noise out by reducing their sample so much. My worry is that they manipulated the sample a little too much as this is much clearer than I’ve seen from anyone else.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jan 13, 2010 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
Slightly unlucky, neck injury, new league etc.
A bad year for Burrell against lefties would be an .800OPS…..he had about a .580OPS.
I’ve set my expectations to the .800 OPS level overall, but I think he could still bounce back and give us an .850-.900 OPS year.
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