Two Comparisons to Keep in Mind For Matt Garza's Arbitration Value

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 16, 2010 10:44 PM EST Comment 7 comments

Tommy took a look at the cases in-depth earlier and it's important to give credit where credit is due. He did a better job than I will here. Still, I wanted to pass along something to consider with regards to Matt Garza.

Last night, Chad Billingsley signed for $3.85M. Garza likely won't get that much in arbitration. He's not alone, since John Danks has almost identical numbers. I'd compare the arbitrators' understanding of advanced metrics to those of the average newspaper reader. Most simply don't care about anything more than wins, RBI, and ERA. Below is a comparison of the three in the most basic terms possible:

Pitcher	ERA	IP	Wins	WHIP
Garza	3.99	520.2	27	1.34
Danks	4.06	534.1	31	1.33
Billing.	3.55	634	47	1.38

Look for Garza (and Danks) to get more than $3M, but less than $3.8M.

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Wouldn't suprise me if he signed in the low 3mil range or basically half his estimated arb value.

www.draysbay.com, www.beyondtheboxscore.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 16, 2010 10:46 PM EST via mobile reply actions

I guess that's what happens when you go 8-12

Thank you dumb people and the use of inefficient stats.

Side note: Wade Davis is supposedly going to take #40, my wish has come true :)

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Jan 16, 2010 10:56 PM EST up reply actions

Garza

I’ve thought since about the day that he arrived here that he would eventually be traded. I think RJ is about right, but keep in mind too that his high strikeout totals will impress the arbitrators. The Rays seem to be very good in arbitration cases (having never lost one) and I don’t think Garza will test them – I’d say 3.5 – 4.0 mil. But I also think he may be traded after this season, especially if Hellickson and/or Davis put on a show.

by elijahdukes on Jan 16, 2010 11:24 PM EST reply actions