Tommy took a look at the cases in-depth earlier and it's important to give credit where credit is due. He did a better job than I will here. Still, I wanted to pass along something to consider with regards to Matt Garza.
Last night, Chad Billingsley signed for $3.85M. Garza likely won't get that much in arbitration. He's not alone, since John Danks has almost identical numbers. I'd compare the arbitrators' understanding of advanced metrics to those of the average newspaper reader. Most simply don't care about anything more than wins, RBI, and ERA. Below is a comparison of the three in the most basic terms possible:
Look for Garza (and Danks) to get more than $3M, but less than $3.8M.