A Rough Projection of the American League East's Top Three

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 23, 2010 3:54 PM EST

Note: These are mostly napkin projections and I'm open for arguments. I'm certainly not claiming these are the best, most accurate, or only values that matter. And yes, the bench and bullpen totals are cop-outs.

Hitters:

POS	NYY	WAR	BOS	WAR	TB	WAR
CA	Posada	2.5	Martinez	4	Shoppach	2
1B	Teixeira	5	Youkilis	4	Pena	3
2B	Cano	3.5	Pedroia	4.5	Zobrist	4
3B	Rodriguez	5	Beltre	3.5	Longoria	6
SS	Jeter	3.5	Scutaro	2.5	Bartlett	3
LF	Gardner	2	Ellsbury	2.5	Crawford	4
CF	Granderson	4	Cameron	3.5	Upton	4
RF	Swisher	3	Drew	4	Joyce	2
DH	Johnson	1.5	Ortiz	1	Burrell	1
BN		1		1		1
Total		31		30.5		30

And pitchers:

POS	NYY	WAR	BOS	WAR	TB	WAR
SP	Sabathia	6	Lester	5.5	Shields	4
SP	Burnett	3	Beckett	5	Garza	3.5
SP	Pettitte	3	Lackey	3.5	Niemann	3
SP	Vazquez	4.5	Matsuzaka	2.5	Price	2.5
SP	Gaudin	2	Buchholz	2.5	Davis	2.5
CP	Rivera	2	Papelbon	1.5	Soriano	1.5
RP		1.5		1.5		1.5
Total		22		22		18.5

And totals:

Team	eWAR	eW
NYY	53	101
BOS	52.5	100.5
TB	48.5	96.5

I'll wait patiently for the first "You can't win half of a game..." joke.

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Comments

No way shoppach is only 2 wins

1.7 in two thirds of a season despite a BABIP 50 points lower than career numbers

by benderbrodriguez on Jan 23, 2010 4:05 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Are you factoring in defense as well?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 23, 2010 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

How do we account for catcher defense?

by benderbrodriguez on Jan 23, 2010 4:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

There isn't a clear method.

I was just asking if you were tacking any off for defense.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 23, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

How does WAR factor in defense

for catchers, since UZR doesn’t work for them?

by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 23, 2010 4:53 PM EST up reply actions

Fangraphs' version doesn't.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 23, 2010 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

I would imagine that Shoppach cant be much worse then Posada and Martinez defensively

by td32 on Jan 23, 2010 6:22 PM EST up reply actions

That's because

Victor and Posada have to be two of the worst defensive catchers in the league.

by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 23, 2010 6:57 PM EST up reply actions

this is last year I was talking about, in case it wasn’t clear.
Also, we should be able to squeeze out more like 3 wins out of rf next year with the platoon, right? Or maybe this is just hopeless optimism

by benderbrodriguez on Jan 23, 2010 4:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Yes. I think the RF projection is the most conservative of the bunch.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 23, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

Surprised you gave Niemann 3

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 23, 2010 4:39 PM EST reply actions

Niemann = The Future

by SRQman on Jan 23, 2010 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

Thought I had him at 2.5-3 all along, no?

Could lean either way, cutter/splitter excite me, but hard to say if it’ll mean success or not.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 23, 2010 5:13 PM EST up reply actions

I'd just be happy with increased curveballs

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jan 23, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions

I think Garza has a better year than Shields.

by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 23, 2010 4:54 PM EST reply actions

I can't wait for the inevitable barrage of injuries and unexpected cuts.

For instance, will Chad Gaudin really last an entire year in the rotation?

by vincesucks on Jan 23, 2010 4:59 PM EST reply actions

I didn't even notice that

but Gaudin’s not going to be the 5th starter.

If Gaudin started enough games to rack up 2 WAR, that would mean disaster hit the Yankee rotation.

by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 23, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions

I doubt Gaudin is even their fifth starter.

I just needed a fifth name at this point and wasn’t sure if Hughes or Chamberlain would move back.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 23, 2010 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

I would not be surprised to see Sabathia

in a 4-5 win range. His tRA and xFIP have crept up steadily since ‘07. Also, he’s nearly 30 years old and almost 300 pounds. How does this gut stay healthy at all?!

on Twitter @CubsStats23

by BWoodrum on Jan 23, 2010 5:01 PM EST reply actions