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The Gross Injustice: Where is Gabe?


Today is January 27th and Gabe Gross is still unemployed. Here are some points to consider:

*In the past 3 seasons, Gabe Gross is 2nd in the Majors in UZR/150  in RF at 17.8 among all players with 1500 innings minimum.  This alone should qualify him as a defensive replacement specialist.

*Good on base skills as evidenced by his 12.9% BB%.

 

*Gabe Gross had a BABIP of .294 last year despite:

-A screaming 23.2% Line Drive %, good for 18th in MLB for PA>300. The average BABIP of the top 35 in LD% was .331.

-Registering as the third fastest speed off the bat (84.2 MPH) on the Rays in the April Hit Fx sample that was released in 2009 behind Carlos Pena and Pat Burrell.

BABIP Estimations:

LD+ 12%= .352

Using League Avgs per Batted Ball Type as Weights: .315

Using xBABIP calculator: .326

 

It's probably safe to say that bad luck contributed to Gabe Gross putting up a wRC+ of 86, his first wRC+ below league average since 2005. Generally, in a platoon role Gross will give you a league average bat with a top of the line glove. Yes he is 30, and yes his K rate soared to 28.2% in 2009 along with an O-Swing % of 22.6% (career avg (17.7%). However, you can make a strong case that a lineup of Zobrist at 2B with a Kapler/Joyce platoon in RF is a better lineup than Zobrist in RF with Orlando Hudson at 2B. If there is any ambition to control Joyce's service clock, I would prefer the outfield platoon of the Gabe of the Day with Zo at 2B, to the glitzier O-Dog/Zo combo.  Pocket the saved money and sign another bullpen arm.

Assuming Zobrist plays RF as well he does 2B,  there is no need to factor positional adjustments. The Gabes offer over the past 3 years UR/150 of 17.9 for Gross and 20.0 for Kapler. Chone has Kapler at-1.3 runs at the plate and Gross at .1. That about 1.75 Wins. Chone has Hudson's bat at 2.2 runs, though he's averaged a Win over the past 3 seasons.The glove measures about league average with a slight skew to the negative. According to Chone, the Gabes are about 1.5 more WAR than O-Dog as a Zo complement. If you give O-Dog the benefit of the doubt and award him a win with the bat, the Gabes still are a half-win better.

While I prefer Matty Joyce getting his shot alongside Kapler, whatever team decides to bite on Gabe Gross will receive an excellent platoon value.

0 recs  |  Comment 29 comments |

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When i suggrsted he'd get a minor league deal at best

i had the Mark Kotsay deal shoved down my throat for comparison

Gross isn’t a bad ball player, just not a good one

by sternfan1 on Jan 27, 2010 1:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

His original team is the Jays

R.J. couldn’t handle seeing him in the ALE playing so average-ly for a rival.

www.draysbay.com, www.beyondtheboxscore.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 27, 2010 2:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

You'd rather Kotsay?

Really? I’d like to know why.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 27, 2010 1:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No--i don't want either

Just a feel for the way most GMs think Kotsay get the better deal

by sternfan1 on Jan 27, 2010 1:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ryan Church is another one

Very good glove, though not quite Gabe
Slightly worse liability with the bat than Gabe
1 year 1.5 from Pirates

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 27, 2010 1:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This move is staring Omar Minaya in the face.

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Jan 27, 2010 1:31 PM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

And he has no idea what to do with it.

“Hey you think this Gross guy would play first base?”

www.draysbay.com, www.beyondtheboxscore.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Jan 27, 2010 1:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions   2 recs

Know that I would rec this if it were possible on mobile

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Jan 27, 2010 1:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Well done

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 27, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

LD% +.120 doesn't work.

Just going off the previous year’s BABIP is actually a better predictor:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/trust-but-verify/

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 27, 2010 3:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I know LD + .120 is weak

I just wanted to use all readily available estimates with .326 as the most reliable.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 27, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

CHONE has Hudson worth more WAR than Gross and Kapler combined.

Also, what about Zobrist being a better defender in RF than 2B?

I’d say the Gabes are worth ~3 W and Hudson is ~2.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 27, 2010 3:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thats based on position

If Zobrist is playing 2nd or RF, then it solely becomes about the bat and glove. Positional adjustments affect individual players values, but in terms of team composition every team derives identical value from positional adustments since all 7 positions are constantly fielded.

The only question is what is Zobrist’s glove worth in terms of UZR in RF vs 2B. He probably has less learning to do at this point in the infield position.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 27, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Gross thank you for those walkoffs and that HR against Cleveland in 2008

When we ever have a old timers day at the Trop I’ll give Gross a standing ovation but we should have new digs by then.

Giants rumored to have interest in Chan Ho Park but at a minor league deal. So from a 3 million dollar offer from the Phillies he declined to a minor league offer from the Giants. I would think Cubs and Rays came in somewhere around 1.5 million. I hope Rays sign Park.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/01/cubs-rays-after-park.html

by rickrays on Jan 27, 2010 3:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Well that slams the door on Damon

and Baldelli as a Yankee at least. IO heard Rocco asked to wear his number 5 and the Yankees said no.

by rickrays on Jan 27, 2010 3:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Never

I’ll never be over trading him for a manager,

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 27, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I remember Randy Winn as a DRay

and he was actually very good from what I remember.

Alas, that was 8 years ago. These days, he sucks.

by FloridaownsFSU on Jan 27, 2010 4:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

two years ago he put up a 4+ WAR year

his bat just went to shit this past year, but unless you think he’s on the way down and dropping he is still a very very good defense corner outfielder

by Navi's_Navy on Jan 27, 2010 7:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Best heckle I ever heard

when was he was roaming LF one day at the trop….:(

http://citrusjuicing.com/ An SRQ focused-Tampa Bay area sports blog

by CubFanRaysaddict on Jan 27, 2010 9:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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