xBABIP Adjusted Lines for Rays Batters in 2009

Thanks to B Ray for posting the link to Chris Dutton's xBABIP calculator.  I wanted to take a look at which guys posted an actual BABIP that was close to or way off from their xBABIP.  As usual, this led me down some other interesting roads to get an idea of which guys over/under performed their expected lines.  First off, here is a link to the google.doc HERE and a link to the .xls download:   xBABIP Corrected Statistics

Let's start by looking at the xBABIP vs. Actual BABIP, sorted by highest xBABIP, for all Rays with >=30 AB:

Player
 xBABIP 
 BABIP 
Carl Crawford
B.J. Upton
Ben Zobrist
Jason Bartlett
Gabe Gross
Akinori Iwamura
Michel Hernandez
Evan Longoria
Willy Aybar
Fernando Perez
Reid Brignac
Gregg Zaun
Pat Burrell
Gabe Kapler
Joe Dillon
Carlos Pena
Dioner Navarro
Matt Joyce
    0.356
    0.338
    0.327
    0.327
    0.324
    0.324
    0.323
    0.322
    0.318
    0.317
    0.307
    0.306
    0.302
    0.299
    0.296
    0.292
    0.292
    0.291
   0.346
   0.312
   0.330
   0.368
   0.294
   0.355
   0.267
   0.319
   0.274
   0.304
   0.348
   0.319
   0.276
   0.259
   0.320
   0.253
   0.233
   0.136

More fun stuff continues, after the jump.

It makes sense that the guys that you think of as speed guys have the higher xBABIP's, while the inverse is true for some of the slower guys.  I think you can get a good idea of guys that seemed overly lucky (Bartlett, Iwamura) and those that were unlucky (Pena, Navarro, Upton) just by giving the list a quick perusal.  To extend on this, we can assume that the difference between the xBABIP and BABIP times AB should give an idea of how many hits a guy was robbed of or lucked into:

Player
AB
Diff
#H
Dioner Navarro
Carlos Pena
B.J. Upton
Willy Aybar
Pat Burrell
Gabe Gross
Gabe Kapler
Carl Crawford
Michel Hernandez
Matt Joyce
Evan Longoria
Fernando Perez
Joe Dillon
Gregg Zaun
Ben Zobrist
Reid Brignac
Akinori Iwamura
Jason Bartlett
376
471
560
296
412
282
205
606
99
32
584
34
30
94
501
90
231
500
-0.059
-0.039
-0.026
-0.044
-0.026
-0.030
-0.040
-0.010
-0.056
-0.155
-0.003
-0.013
0.024
0.013
0.003
0.041
0.031
0.041
-22
-18
-15
-13
-11
-8
-8
-6
-6
-5
-2
0
1
1
2
4
7
21

In this case, a negative number implies that the batter was robbed of that many hits, conversely, a positive number shows how many the batter lucked into.  It looks like a lot more of our guys were unlucky than lucky at first glance.  So what does this all mean to some of the basic statistics?  First off, here are the players' actual slash line statistics from 2009:

Player
AVG OBP SLG OPS
Ben Zobrist
Carlos Pena
Evan Longoria
Jason Bartlett
Carl Crawford
Gregg Zaun
Joe Dillon
Matt Joyce
Gabe Kapler
Willy Aybar
Reid Brignac
Akinori Iwamura
B.J. Upton
Pat Burrell
Gabe Gross
Michel Hernandez
Dioner Navarro
Fernando Perez
 0.297   0.405   0.543   0.948
 0.227   0.356   0.537   0.893
 0.281   0.364   0.526   0.890
 0.320   0.389   0.490   0.879
 0.305   0.364   0.452   0.816
 0.287   0.323   0.489   0.812
 0.300   0.400   0.400   0.800
 0.188   0.270   0.500   0.770
 0.239   0.329   0.439   0.768
 0.253   0.331   0.416   0.747
 0.278   0.301   0.444   0.745
 0.290   0.355   0.390   0.745
 0.241   0.313   0.373   0.686
 0.221   0.315   0.367   0.682
 0.227   0.326   0.355   0.681
 0.242   0.292   0.323   0.615
 0.218   0.261   0.322   0.583
 0.206   0.206   0.206   0.412

If we assume that every one of the hits that a player was robbed or lucky on was a single, then we can adjust these to show what each batter should have looked like:

Player
AVG OBP SLG OPS
Ben Zobrist
Carlos Pena
Evan Longoria
Jason Bartlett
Carl Crawford
Gregg Zaun
Joe Dillon
Matt Joyce
Gabe Kapler
Willy Aybar
Reid Brignac
Akinori Iwamura
B.J. Upton
Pat Burrell
Gabe Gross
Michel Hernandez
Dioner Navarro
Fernando Perez
   0.294    0.402    0.540    0.942
   0.266    0.388    0.576    0.965
   0.284    0.366    0.529    0.895
   0.279    0.353    0.449    0.802
   0.315    0.373    0.462    0.835
   0.274    0.311    0.476    0.787
   0.276    0.379    0.376    0.755
   0.343    0.404    0.655    1.059
   0.279    0.364    0.479    0.843
   0.297    0.370    0.460    0.830
   0.237    0.261    0.403    0.665
   0.259    0.328    0.359    0.686
   0.267    0.336    0.399    0.736
   0.247    0.338    0.393    0.730
   0.257    0.352    0.385    0.737
   0.298    0.345    0.379    0.724
   0.277    0.316    0.381    0.697
   0.219    0.219    0.219    0.438

This can be a lot to try to sort through, so lets just take a look at actual wOBA (AwOBA) vs. expected wOBA (XwOBA):

Player XwOBA AwOBA
Matt Joyce
Ben Zobrist
Carlos Pena
Evan Longoria
Carl Crawford
Gabe Kapler
Willy Aybar
Joe Dillon
Jason Bartlett
Gregg Zaun
Gabe Gross
B.J. Upton
Pat Burrell
Michel Hernandez
Akinori Iwamura
Dioner Navarro
Reid Brignac
Fernando Perez
   0.440
   0.398
   0.389
   0.366
   0.363
   0.359
   0.357
   0.347
   0.345
   0.337
   0.328
   0.325
   0.321
   0.321
   0.307
   0.300
   0.284
   0.191
   0.319
   0.400
   0.360
   0.364
   0.355
   0.328
   0.322
   0.366
   0.377
   0.349
   0.304
   0.304
   0.301
   0.274
   0.331
   0.251
   0.320
   0.180

Bear in mind, this is the original formula for wOBA that doesn't include stolen base numbers.  I have omitted ROE as well. 

Guys that appear to benefit quite a bit are Carlos Pena, Gabe Kapler, Willy Aybar, Gabe Gross, B.J. Upton, Pat Burrell, and Dioner Navarro.  Guys that seem like they were quite a bit lucky are Jason Bartlett, Gregg Zaun (includes time with Tampa Bay and Baltimore), and Akinori Iwamura.  Weird that 2 of those guys are now gone.  Also, check out Matty Joyce doing a Pujols!  IF ONLY WE ACTUALLY PLAYED HIM11!!!!111 To correct for asinine statements like these that are sure to come, we can look at wRAA, which will factor in PA as well as the league average wOBA of .321:

Player XwRAA AwRAA
Carlos Pena
Ben Zobrist
Evan Longoria
Carl Crawford
Jason Bartlett
Willy Aybar
Gabe Kapler
Matt Joyce
Gabe Gross
Gregg Zaun
Pat Burrell
B.J. Upton
Joe Dillon
Michel Hernandez
Reid Brignac
Akinori Iwamura
Fernando Perez
Dioner Navarro
33.9
40.0
26.3
24.8
11.6
10.5
7.9
3.8
1.9
1.4
0.1
2.1
0.8
0.0
-3.0
-3.3
-3.9
-7.5
19.6
41.2
24.9
20.1
27.7
0.3
1.5
-0.1
-4.7
2.4
-8.3
-9.3
1.4
-4.3
-0.1
2.3
-4.3
-24.9

Suddenly Navi does not look as bad, once we've stripped some of the unluckiness out of his balls in play.  Same can be said for Pena, who now looks like a stud, contributing 4.25 wins with his bat alone.  Another reoccurring theme is the Jason Bartlett normalization.  It suddenly appears that a hot-shot rookie that plays substantially better defense could replicate those runs.  Lastly, we can just look at the difference of the wRAA's as a kind of continuum:

Wraaluckiness_medium

via i273.photobucket.com

Click to embiggen

(Updated XwRAA & Continuum at 11:14 on 1/8/10)

Something that I didn't touch on throughout this was the fact that guys like Crawford, Longoria, and Zobrist a.k.a. THE CORE, were not relatively lucky either way.  They had genuinely good to great seasons according to this.  If this statistic has any predictive value then we can look forward to more of the same next year.  Also, I just realized that I forgot to include Kelly Shoppach, so I will post some of his relevant items in the comments.  Haters wanna hate?

Here are the Kelly Shoppach lines, I apologize for not doing this in the main stuff, but I'm not creating this post all over again.

xBABIP 0.328
BABIP 0.286
Diff -0.042
#H -11
aAVG 0.214
aOBP 0.335
aSLG 0.399
aOPS 0.735
awOBA 0.327
awRAA 1.6
eAVG 0.256
eOBP 0.370
eSLG 0.441
eOPS 0.811
ewOBA 0.358
ewRAA 10.5
DiffwRAA 8.9

  As you can see, Shopp was quite a bit unlucky in 2009.  Hopefully, he has a big bounce-back as a 0.811 OPS out of the catcher spot could really put this team over the top.

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