The Power of the Walk

by MrNegative1 on Oct 17, 2010 2:18 PM EDT

I was having a discussion with another Rays fan who mentioned to me that he'd be interested in what the Rays record was when they walked more then x amount of times versus when they didn't. To be honest, the conversation was had after the Rays were shut down by Cliff Lee to end our season. My initial reaction was that obviously the Rays would struggle without a lot of base on balls, as they have a very poor team batting average. Was this a valid idea?

Anytime I have an initial reaction, I think back to a section of text I came across when reading a case study by James Click about fielding statistics (I've linked and exceprt of the story and highly recommend it), where he referenced a case study by Thomas Gilovich who said that human memory is one of the worst data collection devises in the world. He (Gilovish) noted that we tend to find nonexistent patterns in random data, extrapolate from too little information, weight events that confirm our preconceptions vastly more than those that disagree with them, and eagerly accept second hand information as fact. Was I guilty of doing the exact same thing as Gilovich mentioned in his case study?

To answer the question of the Rays W-L record when walking x amount of times would require some data mining and thanks to the Baseball-Reference Play Index I was able to quickly grab the teams record when walking x amount of time. Knowing how the Rays perfromed as a team needed to be put into some perspective, so I ran the same metric on the American League and compared the Rays success relative to the leage average. Also, I've included the frequency that the Rays drew x amount of walks and included that data as well. After all, having a poor W-L record when drawing zero walks doesn't mean much. Drawing zero walks well above league average would likely be more valuable information.

The first table gives the Rays record in games where they drew 0-7 or more walks. As noted I've included the American League win % and frequency for each event and compared the Rays walk total to each. A solid trend would be a negative value for frequency for games of 0-3 walks and a positve frequency of games of 4 or more walks. That trend seems to be applicable to the Rays, although the Rays win % in the games of 4 or more walks is not much above the AL average.

RAYS RECORD IN GAMES BY WALK TOTAL
BB	W	L	Win %	Freq	AL Win %	AL Freq	±AL Win%	±AL Freq
0	3	3	0.500	3.70%	0.301	6.00%	0.199	-2.29%
1	9	5	0.643	8.64%	0.403	14.99%	0.240	-6.35%
2	14	11	0.560	15.43%	0.445	19.93%	0.115	-4.50%
3	15	10	0.600	15.43%	0.493	19.22%	0.107	-3.79%
4	12	13	0.480	15.43%	0.548	15.21%	-0.068	0.22%
5	16	9	0.640	15.43%	0.633	11.07%	0.007	4.37%
6	10	6	0.625	9.88%	0.627	5.91%	-0.002	3.97%
≥7	17	9	0.654	16.05%	0.667	7.67%	-0.013	8.38%

The next group of data sums the walk data into two separate events, 3 walks or less or 4 walks or more (playoff teams highlighted in red). The Rays offense drew 3 walks or less with a lot less frequency than most teams in the American League, 16.93% less often than the league average and had a higher than leage avererage winning percentage in those games.

DRAWING 3 WALKS OR LESS IN A GAME
AL Rank	Team	W	L	Win %	Freq%	AL Win %	AL Freq%	±AL Win%	±AL Freq
1	Rays	41	29	0.586	43.21%	0.435	60.14%	0.151	-16.93%
2	White Sox	62	51	0.549	69.75%	0.435	60.14%	0.114	9.61%
3	Yankees	39	33	0.542	44.44%	0.435	60.14%	0.107	-15.70%
4	Red Sox	44	45	0.494	54.94%	0.435	60.14%	0.059	-5.20%
5	Blue Jays	49	56	0.467	64.81%	0.435	60.14%	0.032	4.67%
6	Rangers	44	54	0.449	60.49%	0.435	60.14%	0.014	0.35%
7	Angels	49	67	0.422	71.60%	0.435	60.14%	-0.013	11.46%
8	Twins	37	52	0.416	54.94%	0.435	60.14%	-0.019	-5.20%
9	Athletics	39	57	0.406	59.26%	0.435	60.14%	-0.029	-0.88%
10	Orioles	45	75	0.375	74.07%	0.435	60.14%	-0.060	13.93%
11	Mariners	40	67	0.374	66.05%	0.435	60.14%	-0.061	5.91%
12	Royals	39	67	0.368	65.43%	0.435	60.14%	-0.067	5.29%
13	Tigers	34	59	0.366	57.41%	0.435	60.14%	-0.069	-2.73%
14	Indians	32	58	0.356	55.56%	0.435	60.14%	-0.079	-4.58%

When drawing 4 walks or more in a game, the Rays were naturally well above league average but their wininng percentage when drawing more than 4 walks a game was below league average.

DRAWING 4 WALKS OR MORE IN A GAME
AL Rank	Team	W	L	Win %	Freq%	AL Win %	AL Freq%	±AL Win%	±AL Freq
1	Twins	57	16	0.781	45.06%	0.606	39.86%	0.175	5.20%
2	Tigers	47	22	0.681	42.59%	0.606	39.86%	0.075	2.73%
3	Angels	31	15	0.674	28.40%	0.606	39.86%	0.068	-11.46%
4	Athletics	42	24	0.636	40.74%	0.606	39.86%	0.030	0.88%
5	Rangers	42	24	0.636	39.51%	0.606	39.86%	0.030	-0.35%
6	Blue Jays	36	21	0.632	35.19%	0.606	39.86%	0.025	-4.67%
7	Yankees	56	34	0.622	55.56%	0.606	39.86%	0.016	15.70%
8	Red Sox	45	28	0.616	45.06%	0.606	39.86%	0.010	5.20%
9	Rays	55	37	0.598	56.79%	0.606	39.86%	-0.008	16.93%
10	White Sox	26	23	0.531	30.25%	0.606	39.86%	-0.076	-9.61%
11	Indians	37	35	0.514	44.44%	0.606	39.86%	-0.092	4.58%
12	Royals	28	28	0.500	34.57%	0.606	39.86%	-0.106	-5.29%
13	Orioles	21	21	0.500	25.93%	0.606	39.86%	-0.106	-13.93%
14	Mariners	21	34	0.382	33.95%	0.606	39.86%	-0.224	-5.91%

What this data suggest to me (and others may have a totally different interpretation) is that the Rays had a better win % when they drew 4 or more walks (.598) than when the walked three or fewer times (.586), but not by a significant enough margin to suggest that the key to winning was drawing walks. Of course, there are many moving parts to how a team collects its victories, and this is only one part. What I've provided below is the same set of data relative to Rays pitchers issuing walks. I've left off the commentary that could be used as a separate fanpost and I've included the data collected on a googledocs link here: https://spreadsheets2.google.com/ccc?key=tYULseCiG0DZmJFKqK8ijmA&authkey=CJKQ-8cN&hl=en&authkey=CJKQ-8cN#gid=0 Please keep in mind that the data collected is in crude form and if errors are found please point them out to me as I collect this data solo and you are my peer review.

RAYS RECORD IN GAMES BY WALKS ISSUED
BB	W	L	Win %	Freq%	AL Win %	AL Freq	±AL Win%	±AL Freq
0	7	2	0.778	5.56%	0.723	6.22%	0.054	-0.66%
1	20	8	0.714	17.28%	0.622	15.39%	0.093	1.90%
2	20	15	0.571	21.60%	0.560	19.44%	0.011	2.16%
3	23	13	0.639	22.22%	0.507	20.11%	0.132	2.12%
4	15	10	0.600	15.43%	0.462	14.90%	0.138	0.53%
5	5	9	0.357	8.64%	0.344	10.89%	0.013	-2.25%
6	4	4	0.500	4.94%	0.389	5.78%	0.111	-0.84%
≥7	2	5	0.286	4.32%	0.321	7.28%	-0.035	-2.95%
	96	66

ISSUING 3 WALKS OR LESS IN A GAME
AL Rank	Team	W	L	Win %	Freq%	AL Win %	AL Freq%	±AL Win%	±AL Freq
1	White Sox	73	31	0.702	64.20%	0.575	61.16%	0.127	3.04%
2	Yankees	65	29	0.691	58.02%	0.575	61.16%	0.117	-3.14%
3	Blue Jays	64	34	0.653	60.49%	0.575	61.16%	0.078	-0.67%
4	Rays	70	38	0.648	66.67%	0.575	61.16%	0.074	5.51%
5	Red Sox	52	31	0.627	51.23%	0.575	61.16%	0.052	-9.93%
6	Tigers	57	40	0.588	59.88%	0.575	61.16%	0.013	-1.28%
7	Twins	74	52	0.587	77.78%	0.575	61.16%	0.013	16.62%
8	Athletics	56	41	0.577	59.88%	0.575	61.16%	0.003	-1.28%
9	Angels	49	36	0.576	52.74%	0.575	61.16%	0.002	-8.42%
10	Rangers	55	41	0.573	59.26%	0.575	61.16%	-0.002	-1.90%
11	Indians	44	48	0.478	56.79%	0.575	61.16%	-0.096	-4.37%
12	Orioles	44	53	0.454	59.88%	0.575	61.16%	-0.121	-1.28%
13	Royals	43	53	0.448	59.26%	0.575	61.16%	-0.127	-1.90%
14	Mariners	51	63	0.447	70.37%	0.575	61.16%	-0.127	9.21%

ISSUING 4 WALKS OR MORE IN A GAME
AL Rank	Team	W	L	Win %	Freq%	AL Win %	AL Freq%	±AL Win%	±AL Freq
1	Twins	20	16	0.556	22.22%	0.392	38.84%	0.164	-16.62%
2	Rangers	35	31	0.530	40.74%	0.392	38.84%	0.139	1.90%
3	Rays	26	28	0.481	33.33%	0.392	38.84%	0.090	-5.51%
4	Red Sox	37	42	0.468	48.77%	0.392	38.84%	0.077	9.93%
5	Yankees	30	38	0.441	41.98%	0.392	38.84%	0.050	3.14%
6	Angels	31	46	0.403	47.26%	0.392	38.84%	0.011	8.42%
7	Athletics	25	40	0.385	40.12%	0.392	38.84%	-0.007	1.28%
8	Tigers	24	41	0.369	40.12%	0.392	38.84%	-0.022	1.28%
9	Royals	24	42	0.364	40.74%	0.392	38.84%	-0.028	1.90%
10	Indians	25	45	0.357	43.21%	0.392	38.84%	-0.034	4.37%
11	Orioles	22	43	0.338	40.12%	0.392	38.84%	-0.053	1.28%
12	Blue Jays	21	43	0.328	39.51%	0.392	38.84%	-0.063	0.67%
13	White Sox	15	43	0.259	35.80%	0.392	38.84%	-0.133	-3.04%
14	Mariners	10	38	0.208	29.63%	0.392	38.84%	-0.183	-9.21%

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Comments

Who da thunk it?

4 BB and a below 500 record

Good stuff and something to study and conclude in many ways

Thanks

follow me on twitter @sternfan10\

by sternfan1 on Oct 17, 2010 3:11 PM EDT reply actions

And a team with good baserunning like the Rays can take advantage of walks

They don’t have to necessarily rely on the XBH. Good breakdown.

by Travis Lee on Oct 17, 2010 4:05 PM EDT reply actions

Great stuff Neg

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "To be the best, you have to beat the best…"

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Oct 17, 2010 4:16 PM EDT reply actions

It's no 'OHW' but he shows promise

follow me on twitter @sternfan10\

by sternfan1 on Oct 17, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions

The only thing separating you from analytical greatness is content my friend.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Oct 17, 2010 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Interesting stuff.

Keep up the good work.

love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT

by SRQman on Oct 17, 2010 4:22 PM EDT reply actions

First question

is what else occurs when the walks are low. It’d be interesting to see how many Ks, game score or just the name of the pitcher in low walk games.

by Salty on Oct 17, 2010 5:34 PM EDT reply actions

Agreed... but even more than that

i would suggest walks are more of an indicator of lack of control of the opposing pitcher. How much of those wins during the higher walk games can be attributed more to poor pitch location as opposed to the walks themselves?

by Political_Man on Oct 18, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Here you go

Attached is the link to the games with 3 or few walks. I didn’t think to put the data in the post as I didn’t want to overwhelm with the data. You both (Salty and Politcal Man) ask very interesting questions, which could drive me into another data mining expedition.

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/DXb7c

by MrNegative1 on Oct 18, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

And here is Walks > 4 Game Logs

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/qHDQd

Enjoy.

by MrNegative1 on Oct 18, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I would think game by game walk differential (issued vs received) might be most telling

by SamRay on Oct 19, 2010 9:15 AM EDT reply actions

Pitch count

While the walks is an interesting stat, in Maddons world, the number of pitches the Rays see in a game may be not only more important, but is their goal each game. I remember a locker room post game conference in mid season where he quoted that when the Rays were able to see something(close but maybe not exactly ) like over 145 pitches a game, they had a winning percentage of close to 70%. My initial reaction was what their winning percentage was when they didn’t see that many pitches.

Point is, there appears to be a concerted effort for the Rays to take as many pitches as possible(a Maddon directive?) maybe even at the expense of swinging at hittable strikes. IMO,that sort of passive approach was a big contributing factor to their hitting woes for long periods of this season.

by budman3 on Oct 21, 2010 11:16 PM EDT reply actions

This is a great idea, let's see if I can find anything

Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 22, 2010 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Isn't this just saying that the Rays do better than typical against good pitchers and only typically well against bad pitchers?

I’m not sure it says much about the value of walks per se.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Oct 22, 2010 11:50 PM EDT reply actions