Trade Discussion: BJ Upton

by grover on Oct 21, 2010 8:02 PM EDT

So a friend of mine over at Athletics Nation suggested that BJ Upton might be available in a trade this winter and suggested that an offer of Andrew Bailey and minor league SS Grant Green would be enough to bring Upton to Oakland. I'm not here to push the idea that the Rays need to trade Upton. I know they're slashing payroll but I don't know what moves, if any, they need to make to get on budget. I know the Rays need to replace Crawford and I'm guessing Desmond Jennings is first in line for that job.

What I want to know is IF the Rays did decide to move Upton this offseason what would they be looking for in return? Jennings might/should be able to cover CF but he doesn't have the range to cover two positions. Does that mean the Rays would need an outfielder in return if they dealt Upton or do they have the internal options to cover LF and CF? I also realize that if the Rays put Upton on the trade block there'd be multiple parties interested. But I'm not interested in trying to determine what a half dozen potential suitors might offer in this scenario... I want to know what Rays fans would consider a fair deal in any Upton-to-Oakland scenario. Is the package my friend suggested close? Is it merely a step in the right direction?

Or are we starting from scratch?

Thanks for your time.

Poll

What would be a fair return for an Upton-to-Oakland swap?

Upton's going nowhere... begone, furry blue monster!

26 votes

The Bailey/Green package gets it done.

27 votes

Bailey/Green is close but we need a little more.

9 votes

This is the choice for those who wish to pillage...

3 votes

65 votes | Poll has closed

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Comments

Seems like an overpay on the A's part.

Isn’t Green the SS of the future over there?

if you are willing to shoot a dude in the face in front of yr kids
then i have already won.
by daveh33 on Oct 21, 2010 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't call it a comeback: @thekidpow

by PlayOnWords on Oct 22, 2010 5:53 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Cliff Pennington has impressed the A's at SS

In an interview on Scout.com the A’s said that they like Greens bat a lot and would be willing to shift him to another position is Pennington continues to play well. Oakland could/should have holes at 2B and 3B by 2012, which is when it sounds like they’re expecting Green to ready.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 22, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions

How about Barton for Beej, straight up?

Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 22, 2010 8:44 AM EDT reply actions

I have B.J. at $10.3M surplus value and Barton at $13.3M surplus value mostly because of the extra year of Arb1.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 22, 2010 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Do scouts thing Barton will ever develop power?

Or is he Jaso at first (not that there’s anything wrong with that)? If he’s got some projection in him, I don’t see the As moving him yet.

by Whelk on Oct 22, 2010 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, Chris Carter

Who posted a -40.1 UZR/150 in left field. Grover, did Carter look as bad as that?

by Whelk on Oct 22, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Sample size is killer there

Carter has been playing LF for about a year. He has some athleticism but needs more practice.

He’ll never be great on D but he should be more competent than -40.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 22, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

A kid in a wheelchair could put up a -40, to be fair.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 22, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I think Jaso is a nice comp, though he does have a bit more power.

He’s a great glove man over there with a great eye and can hit for average. I’d love to see a top of the order that’s something like Zobrist, Barton, Joyce, Longoria

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 22, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions

take a look at his home/away stats

9 of his 10 HR came on the road. 9 HR in 273 AB? Right now he’s a 15-20 HR guy, with potential for more.

Add in the fact he had excellent numbers vs lefties this year and his still low cost and there’s a strong trade candidate there.

by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 22, 2010 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions

What figures did you use for Beej at $10.3?

by rglass44 on Oct 22, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

3.33 next year, 10% depreciation gives 2.99 at 60%/80% (8.1M/9.7M), Type B Status, $4M/WAR

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 22, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Why would he depreciate in his prime?

That makes no sense.

by rglass44 on Oct 22, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Because you err on the side of conservancy, what if he gets hurt and misses half a year. These things have to be factored in

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 22, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

But what if he breaks out or even just returns to 4.5 win player.

3.5 3 year avg with injury, 3.7 4-year average, and he’s entering his prime.

by rglass44 on Oct 22, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I did a 3/4/5 weight on his last 3 years of 4.7, 2.2, and 3.4 WAR seasons

Play your what if games all you want, but it’s more likely that he has another 2.2 WAR season than a 4.5, IMO. 3.33 is very realistic with 3 the year after.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 22, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I have no problem with 3.3.

I have a problem with regressing a guy 10% a year entering his prime.

by rglass44 on Oct 22, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm doing it for all players regardless of "prime" on an individual basis players have different ages of prime

You can focus it on a range of years, but who’s to say that Beej is entering his prime. Perhaps we’ve already seen it. Tim Marchman put it extremely well, imagine an X on a chart (think S&D if it helps) where a players skills are on the declining line (D) and knowledge is on the increasing line (S). Where they intersect is the players “prime”. Do you see B.J. increasing his knowledge from even 2-3 years ago? His skills may not have begun their decline, but without making adjustments to become a better player then he won’t have the normal prime of a player.

Back to my point, to make this meaningful we have to apply the same rules to all players. I think 10% makes a lot more sense than, say, knocking off half a win or whatever other people do.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 22, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

And if he gets worse, his arb. number wouldn't double.

His skillset is undervalued in arb.

by rglass44 on Oct 22, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions

This is the framework within which we work with these, they are estimates, deal with it RAG

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 22, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

ARG dumbass

When we know more, why throw it out? Honestly, is there anyone in their right mind taht expects him to get $8 mill. in arb. this year?

by rglass44 on Oct 22, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

No it's RAG, LB

Nope, but these are the rules of the framework, we’re looking at a broad selection of players and it wouldn’t be right to tweak one player just because we watch all of his games. You can’t boost Beej’s value and then compare him to a guy like Sandoval where you haven’t cherry picked how you want it to look.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 22, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

That's dumb.

We draw up the framework. There’s no set way to do these things. It’s all throwing dipspit against the wall. I have more information at hand about Beej. I know what he did going in to this arb year. It’s stupid to ignore reality for the sake of some invented “framework.”

by rglass44 on Oct 22, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

The last 3 years are being accounted for at a rate that Tom Tango says works.

Then again, you probably think you’re smarter than TT, so do whatever you want. If you’re going to make exceptions for one player then you have to do it for all and that’s much more time consuming.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 22, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Tango takes exception the the way you figure arb., yet I don't feel the need to make backhanded remarks.

I just think you’re tying yourself too much to a “framework” that’s merely one way to look at it.You’ve admitted that you THINK Beej is more likely to put up a 2.2 WAR season than 4, but why? If we take a macro look at his defense, and use it for this year’s WAR, he’s nearly at 4 wins.

Your attempt to belittle my thinking through the approach as opposed to following some guideline you established blindly is a nice strawman, though. Congrats.

by rglass44 on Oct 22, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Your number on Barton seems too low

I’m not sure which WAR projections you’re using but I don’t think you realize that the A’s control Barton for 4 more years and he doesn’t qualify for arbitration until after next season.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 22, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Part of the issue is that his last 3 seasons, he had a WAR of .2, .8, and 4.9 where his defense was through the roof

He might have just had his career year and probably checks in around 2.0 WAR as his baseline. I’ve got him at 2.36, 2.12, and 1.91. Thanks for catching that on the 4 years, not sure why I left off his last cost control. Adding that in you’re looking at 21.5M with Type B status.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 22, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

RAG brought up a good point about players prime, so even if you project him to average that 2.36 WAR for the next

4 years his value goes to 23.3M.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 22, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Since you stayed conservative on Upton, we can use the 23.3 million for Barton

If we’re using surplus value as the measuring device then the Rays need to add something more to the pot… otherwise Barton’s a huge overpay for Upton.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 22, 2010 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Not sure how you do mulligans via these projections

But Barton only played in 54 games in 2009. He had gotten demoted during ST and didn’t come back up until August. So he didn’t acrue .8 WAR over a full season… but a 3rd of the year.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 22, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions

NO CHANGING THE FRAMEWORK!

Then bump up his value. Use a conservative projection for what his year might have been, but I think you do have to hold injuried against guys at least somewhat.

by rglass44 on Oct 23, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Simplest moves would be to either X3 or ignore the year altogether

Base the projection on 6.1 WAR and divide by 2.

Not sure which way would be more accurate.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 23, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Do most teams asctually operate this way?

Like for instance, say that BJ goes and has a 5 WAR year next year. His higher projection won’t make up for the loss (use) of the 60% arbitration year in terms of excess value. Yet I think there would be a team (probably not the As) willing to give up more for him. Am I wrong?

I agree with rglass44 that the 10% depreciation is unlikely in this specific case. What percentile of his projection would he have to perform to in order to actually be able to bring back more in the trade market next season?

by Whelk on Oct 22, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Upton gone by the deadline

I suspect the Rays are hoping Upton has a good first half to increase his value. If he does, they won’t be able to afford either an extension or a 5-6 million dollar arbitration after 2011. I think Jennings will end up in CF and lead-off(his natural position) and won’t supply the power needed to remain in LF. Come the deadline I can see Upton being traded, so I look for any trades this winter(like Garza or Shields) to include a power hitting LF’er and/or 1st baseman for that inevitability.

by budman3 on Oct 24, 2010 3:06 PM EDT reply actions