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2011 DH Candidate: Magglio Ordonez

The World Series begins tonight. The Rays, of course, are not participating. Someone who will be taking the field, much to the chagrin of Rays fans, is Pat Burrell. His success with the Giants has left a bitter taste in the mouth's of Rays fans. He was supposed to be the one to pull the Rays' DH position out of the doldrums and into the sunshine. Instead, he seemingly set the position back 30 years.

It's no secret that the Rays haven't received good production from their DH position in quite some time. When the team was a laughingstock it wasn't a glaring issue. As the team has progressed from bottom dweller to two time division champions the lack of stability has become more and more apparent. Let's take a look at the cumulative numbers for the Rays' DH's from 2008-2010:

2008: 645 PA, .246/.322/.428, 24 HR

2009: 639 PA, .244/.337/.404, 21 HR

2010: 640 PA, .238/.322/.391, 17 HR

The main goal of a DH is to hit for power, produce runs, and get on base. Looking at those three seasons, the Rays DHs haven't done any one of those things. The team could have used a "big fat guy who can hit home runs" as Jonah Keri so often puts it. It's amazing how difficult it's been for them to find. They offered a contract to Bobby Abreu, but he turned it down to be able to play the field (in the literal sense) in Anaheim. They thought they found a perfect match in Pat Burrell, but he turned out to be worse than anyone could have imagined. While the team has been willing to shell out money for premium talent, or close to it, the past few years we all know 2011 will be different. The team is cutting payroll and that means a big money bat is obviously out of the question, no matter how much it would help the team. However, if the market is as suppressed as it has been the past few seasons some attractive options could reveal themselves. One of those options could be Magglio Ordonez.

Ordonez is a known quantity who turns 37 this offseason and is coming off of a season ending ankle surgery. Age and injury may seem like a reason to stay away from Ordonez, but those two traits actually work in the Rays' favor. Last season Ordonez made $15million. There's no chance on this earth that he gets that much for 2011, even with Scott Boras as his agent. Here's how Abreu's 2008 season and Ordonez's 2009 and 2010 (I'm using both because Ordonez had roughly a half season's worth of AB's last year) compare:

Abreu: .296/.371/.471  wOBA: .368

Ordonez 2009: .310/.376/.428  wOBA: .356

Ordonez 2010: .303/.378/.474  wOBA: .375

They're not too far off from each other. Ordonez is a few months older than Abreu, making him two years older than Abreu was when he signed his 1yr/$5million deal with Anaheim. The Rays had offered him $7.5 but were rejected. Since 2002 Ordonez's lowest OBP has been .350 and he has hit both left handed (.412 wOBA) and right handed (.376 wOBA) pitching well, so there would be no platooning needed.

It all depends on what the market dictates, but if the Rays feel they can compete for the division crown again in 2011, and with a few breaks its not out of the question, then spending ~$5million on Ordonez could prove to be the best investment they make all winter. Unless, of course, he turns out to be Pat Burrell 2.0.

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I think they'll get more than that, combined.

Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2010 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Boots wit dat furrrrrr

Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2010 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'll take the devil I know over one that is foreign

Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2010 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Is there a better career bat vs. lefties that we're going to get for $2.2M

Whatever stock you put into chemistry, he provides it, which could be a good thing with the loss of Pena.

Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2010 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

There should be plenty of cheap right handed bats available

Who can only hit lefties but whose values are depressed because they can’t hit righties a lick. Jason Michaels for instance. Fernando Tatis is probably also worth an NRI, at a minimum.

I’d like to throw this one out there as a DH option: Matt Murton. He’s coming off a season where he broke the Japanese single season hits record. He was a pretty decent hitter and a frequent discussion point anyway. He’s expected to stay in Japan, but I’m sure that if someone came at him with a decent offer before he re-signs, he’d listen.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Oct 27, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

The mention of Murton's name gave reej a boner.

He and DJ could be our very own Mr. Baseball DH platoon.

by rglass44 on Oct 27, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

I actually had originally planned on writing a post about Murton

But all reports I saw said he was likely staying in Japan, so I didn’t bother.

by Erik Hahmann on Oct 27, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Magglio Discussion

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2010/10/12/1747946/magglio-ordonez-a-good-chance-of-returning-to-detroit

Erik,

The ankle says its healed (bone wise) but that he isn’t putting any weight on it yet (October 12th).

A link in the article suggest that he may be playing winter ball in Venezuela, but I did read somewhere (can’t find link right this moment) that he is going to have to skip winter ball this year.

http://beck.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/10/magglio_update_ankle_is_90_per.html

I think the point about his health is that Magglio, if unable to play winter ball, may slide down into the late sign period of Jan/Feb rather than someone grabbing him in November.

Would you entertain signing a guy who is rehabbing an injury prior to having him work out and prove that the ankle is sound? A team like the Rays has limited resources to throw around and as much as I would love to park Ordonez in the middle of the lineup, I believe he would have to fall to the Rays rather than be a pursuit of the Rays.

by MrNegative1 on Oct 27, 2010 8:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I doubt the Rays would sign a rehabbing playing before it's certain he's 100%

They don’t NEED to sign a DH like Maggs. I was just saying if the market is supressed again and he’s available, I think the Rays have to consider it.

by Erik Hahmann on Oct 27, 2010 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

I would have to agree

100% with your entire article. I would absolutely love to have Magglio in the middle of the lineup.

A few questions, not to veer to far off topic, but for the sake of argument would have to be if Magglio has any desire to keep his glove at home and be a DH? Has he ever been a DH? Can he transition to a DH? I’d like to think the answer to all questions would be yeah, he can DH, no problem. But, here in Tampa we have the non-DH transfer to DH barometer in Pat Burrell.

by MrNegative1 on Oct 27, 2010 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

you got that right

hope on a limited budget can be a tedious thing!

One beautiful thing that your article should point out to many is how optimistic we can/should be about the offense with only a few subtle (and value driven) changes/additions in the lineup. Even if “we” feel the need to point out the negative attributes of player x, y, or z, we can’t discount the real value that each may bring to the lineup.

by MrNegative1 on Oct 27, 2010 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Think you have to take in to account

the switch in leagues Burrell made as well. That wouldn’t be a concern with Maggs.

by FLBoy84 on Oct 27, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

And if Maggs is still not 100%, I feel like that just drops his price down lower and lower.

He’ll last longer in the FA market before going, and possibly sign some incentive laden deal in 2011. I like our chances if that happens.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 27, 2010 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

He recently had surgery on his right ankle so it will take a couple of months to see if he is okay for 2011

At his age and on the Trop turf I would not take the chance of throwing 5 million at him.

by rickrays on Oct 27, 2010 7:49 AM EDT reply actions  

The turf should have nothing to do with it.

He would be a DH. His feet should never touch grass.

by Erik Hahmann on Oct 27, 2010 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

There's a joke here about a lazy CFer, but I can't quite find it.

Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 27, 2010 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

But his lips may, amirite?

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 27, 2010 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

this, this, and this

Ordonez is the classic hitter the Rays offense is missing. Unless Motown resigns him, no one is going to pay a 37 year old, coming off injury, hitter like Ordonez more than 5 mil or so.

If he is healthy in time, he would slide in perfect for the Rays as a DH.

by raysfaninminnesota on Oct 27, 2010 9:04 AM EDT reply actions  

I think Detroit brings him back if he's okay

Ordonez likes Detroit and Detroit likes him. Tigers could use his power as a DH in 2011.

by rickrays on Oct 27, 2010 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Carlos Guillen is getting 13 mill.

He’s not going to play the field much, I don’t think.

by Erik Hahmann on Oct 27, 2010 9:22 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Another guy that has not been mentioned and has been all but forgotten

Carlos Delgado. I realize he did not play this season but I do not believe he ever announced his retirement and has said he still wants to play. When not hurt the guy could mash and a DH role would definitely keep him healthy plus he would have to come cheap!

by pitt1623 on Oct 27, 2010 9:49 AM EDT reply actions  

yeah it was such a small amount of time I had forgotten he even played

your probably right about him being done but I still like the idea of bringing him in to camp as a non-rostered invitee

by pitt1623 on Oct 27, 2010 10:28 AM EDT reply actions  

I don't think Maggs is done at all

I’m just hoping no one else offers him a bigger contract.

by Erik Hahmann on Oct 27, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

You'd almost think

that the cliche about slugging guys who aren’t great defensively being eaaaasy to find wasn’t true.

by Salty on Oct 27, 2010 11:44 AM EDT reply actions  

It depends on the market. Each year it's different.

A couple years ago when Pat the Bat was on the market, that was definitely the case. This year, not so much.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 27, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Seems like it isn't true very often

Pat doesn’t seem like much of an argument.

by Salty on Oct 28, 2010 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, Pat was. He'd hit 30-ish HRs and had an OPS in the high .800s the last four years in a row.

And he was very good against lefties. He was the slugger we wanted and needed, but then everything about him turned the opposite.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 28, 2010 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Before coming to us?

With us, it was $8M a year. In 2008, he made $14M. We got a bargain because the market was over-saturated with aging sluggers.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 28, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

The one issue is the fact that Comerica helps righties whereas the Trop kills them.

Doing a 5/4/3 on his 3 most recent seasons, then adjusting to the Trop, and adjusting down for DH you get a wOBA of .316 (.363→.356→.351→.316). That would have him as a below-average bat. I don’t totally trust the 10% DH-penalty, but it seems to work that way for us every year.

by rglass44 on Oct 27, 2010 11:51 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Huh, I wouldn't think a pitcher's park like Comerica would help out any batter.

It’s also not like he’d be playing every game at the Trop. But it is a good point.

by Erik Hahmann on Oct 27, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

The math (when looking back over I made a typo, so the numbers are different too):

Marcels: ((.373*3)(.356*4)(.375*5))/12=.368
Adjust for Comerica (104 wOBA scale for RHB): .368/((100+104)/200)=.361
Adjust for Trop (97 scale): .361*((100+97)/200)=.356
10% DH adjustment: .90*.356=.320

So he’s up to .320 now which would be league average and improve our DH-output. The issue, though, is that a LA hitter at DH is essentially replacement level I believe (maybe worth half a win). So how much do you replace for a RL hitter?

by rglass44 on Oct 27, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

My question is similar to your "how much do you pay for a RH hitter when a good LHer could do just as well"

Assuming the Rays “identity” continues to be strength by platoon, is it worth burning a roster spot on a guy who can’t play the field? I would submit that the Rays niche as payroll underdogs is: finding guys who are at least decent, then getting the most out of their offensive and defensive ability with platoons and defensive versatility. Having a dedicated DH takes away from that.

Let’s say the Rays ignore finding a dedicated DH and use the best available RH/LH bat off the bench as the starter; at worst, this should get replacement-level production out of the DH spot, and the Rays lose about 2 Wins versus the average DH. They could, alternatively, add a DH to get those wins back—probably at a higher cost than the “platooning” bench player they would have used—but they lose the value of flexibility that comes with the last bench player.

Is the lost roster spot and the extra money worth the extra couple of wins? I would say that one has to at least consider that it might not be.

The only people who really know where [the edge] is are the ones who have gone over it.

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Oct 27, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

This whole discussion is full of win.

And therefore I rec much of it.

I’m totally on board with rglass’s analysis. Even if the 10% DH penalty is too severe, the ALE makes up for the lost ground. I posit a healthy Maggs hits .330 wOBA at best, and Pat Burrell at worst. I think we get .335 wOBA + positional flexibility with the combination of Dan Johnson and a replacement level RHB.

A DRaysBay writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Oct 27, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're mixing up the DH and PH penalties

The PH penalty seems to be a universal 10%, while the DH penalty is on average a much gentler 5% that also seems to vary quite a bit from player to player (i.e., DHing is a skill while PHing is not)

by benderbrodriguez on Oct 27, 2010 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmm....

I tried to find the numbers, but the best I could do was a column from the book blog. Any idea on where the study is?

by rglass44 on Oct 28, 2010 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm pretty sure it's in The Book itself.

And Bender’s numbers sound right to me.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 28, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah I don't think it is.

There is this:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/paradox_of_the_dh_adjustment/

Yes, very simply (and correctly!) put. And those guys are league average hitters. A DH’s WAA is his WAR. Since we are giving a blanket +2.25 wins per 700 PA for all players, we need to "undo" this for the DH, which is why we give them a -2.25 positional adjustment. Alternatively, we could give the +2.25 wins per 700 PA for all non-DH position players, and give no positional adjustment for the DH. It’s the same thing.

(Note: we also give DH a +0.50 wins per 700PA bonus because it’s tougher to DH. You would give a +1 win adjustment to PH.)

by rglass44 on Oct 28, 2010 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure what the average WAR is for DHs (I always thought it was considered 2 WAR for all players)

But here’s the bit on the DH penalty from The Book:

Players also lose effectiveness when being used as a designated hitter; the DH penalty is about half that of the PH penalty. This does vary significantly from player to player – some players hit as well as a DH as they do otherwise, while other perform as badly as they would as pinch hitters.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 28, 2010 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

So that puts him at about .338 for his expected wOBA. So using an LA wOBA of .320 he’d be wortha bout 1-win at DH.

by rglass44 on Oct 28, 2010 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Do it for Godzilla

Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 28, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't get your reference, but I find it offensive.

I think I’d do it for $4-5 mill. In all honesty, if we got close to a .340 wOBA out of him at the DH spot taht would be huge for our team next year (especially with his hitting profile).

by rglass44 on Oct 28, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 28, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

OK now I get it.

I knew that was his nickname, but I was like “Why would we sign Mags for Hideki Matsui?”

by rglass44 on Oct 28, 2010 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm sure PHing is a skill for some guys

Just it isn’t on the balance.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Oct 28, 2010 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

And even if a batter got in once a game, the sample would be so tiny that it wouldn't be indicative of real talent.

Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Oct 28, 2010 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

finding power guys

to be full time DHs isn’t quite as easy as it may seem, although not impossible.

Here is a list of guys who played 75% of their games at DH from 2008-2010 and their numbers.

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/fGi7B

Who will be the first to suggest that a buy low/high ceiling guy like ….gulp…..Milton Bradley….may be just the solution the Rays need. I figured I would’ve read more about this after Eric Wedge was hired and all the MB talk last year, but thus far, his name hasn’t come up.

by MrNegative1 on Oct 27, 2010 1:16 PM EDT reply actions  

I will....errrrr....did.


Take a flyer on Milton Bradley for DH

Dump Shoppach and his three million, to the Mariners and take back Bradley(13 million minus 5.5 that the Cubs are still paying and Mariners chip in another 1 million). Rays get Bradley for 4 million of their own money to be their DH. He can still hit, is a switch hitter and not playing the field keeps him healthy. If he sucks or is a problem, release him for that 4 million. Rays didn’t have a problem paying Burrell 9 million to leave!

by budman3 on Oct 21, 2010 3:01 PM PDT

by budman3 on Oct 27, 2010 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shoppach could very well go

His is the Rays “bad contract” that could be involved in acquiring a “bad contract” if it meets a need. Add the fact that he will be the year long poster boy for what went wrong with the Rays in 2010 and that there is always some team looking for a RH platoon/back-up catcher, and Friedman may try to move him. While it leaves the Rays looking for the same player, (there are cheaper options out there this winter), it could still leave the door open for a better full time veteran catcher to provide more offense and better game calling and defense…at the right price.

by budman3 on Oct 28, 2010 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

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