Rays Preseason Goals and Predictions Revisted
As I find myself in a quasi state of still reflecting on last season more than looking forward to next season I was reminded of two open items that merit discussion: Joe Maddon's preseason goal of the starting rotation pitching 1,000 innings; and our Improbable Prediction Contest.
I've been meaning to research this for some time now, but since the Rays season ended the thought has popped in my head but I've yet to act on it until now. I suppose part of the reason was that I knew, the five starters couldn't have reached the 1000 inning marker with Niemann and Davis taking a August siesta. But all in all, the rotation was very healthy. So how close did we get?
And for those of that you that are new (or forgot like the rest of us), we did a little preseason prediction contest where Steve asked the community to come up with two predictions that would be outliers to the consensus thought. I thought it would be fun to go back and look at the preseason predictions we made here on DRaysBay to see how outlandishaccurate we were. Who had the foresight to predict a Matt Garza no-hitter? Let's see.
First, with Joe Maddon's prediction (aka Goal); a 1,000 inning rotation. Tommy Rancel eloquently broke down the possibility here, where we learned that only one rotation (the Cardinals) achieved the feat in 2009. This year, six teams reached the 1,000 marker led by the Phillies with 1035.1 innings. The others; Sea, LAA, Bos, ChiSox & SF all rode their horses past the barrier. The Rays however, ended up with 999.2 innings out of the starters, just one measely K away from hitting a k. For those sticklers out there that remember Maddon was looking for the original five starters to hit the goal, well they ended up with 955.1 combined, which was more than the opening day five of the six teams above them (and SF was the only other team to use as few as seven starters). So Joe, while you may not have got your wish, you were pretty darn close.
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NAME |
||||
|
31 |
19 |
6 |
207.2 |
|
|
32 |
15 |
10 |
204.0 |
|
|
33 |
12 |
15 |
202.1 |
|
|
29 |
11 |
8 |
173.1 |
|
|
29 |
12 |
10 |
168.0 |
|
|
4 |
3 |
0 |
26.1 |
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|
4 |
1 |
1 |
18.0 |
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Totals |
162 |
73 |
50 |
999.2 |
Now, for you fools. Let's take a look at some of our wise and sage-like predictions (actuals in parenthesis):
And now for the good (at least better):
And as hinted earlier, the winner has to be BossmanJunior with Matt Garza throws a no-hitter. Congrats other BJ, I believe Steve owes you a vintage R.J. Anderson rookie card.
21 comments
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1 recs |
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Comments
I knew Pena was getting too many singles!
In all seriousness, though, good post. I nearly forgot about that one. Is it time for the 2011 edition now? I can’t wait!
A DRaysBay writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
I predicted Price would win the Cy Young
and that Jake McGee would have more IP than Soriano…….
Founding member of the Leslie Anderson fan club.
I thought about giving you a shout-out on Price
Being that it is timely with todays impending news.
I don't think he wins it
but I was darned close.
Founding member of the Leslie Anderson fan club.
by staplemaniac on Nov 18, 2010 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Oh man, I completely forgot about this.
Thanks for taking a look back! I actually got as far as finding a place to make custom baseball cards, but the price was a little bit high for something like this…and then it left my mind. Cool stuff.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 18, 2010 9:05 AM EST reply actions
But I do want to stick to my word.
So BossmanJunior, shoot me an email (in my profile) with some contact info. I’ve got lots of cards lying around here…I think I can find a worthwhile prize.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 18, 2010 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
Nugget
Really funny: I half thought of predicting Carl Crawford winning a gold glove.
by kericr on Mar 29, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up actions
Thank goodness for that.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 18, 2010 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
Completely forgot about this as well
If I’d remembered, I’d have been more heavily rooting for my Upton/Crawford both go 25/50 prediction.
not too outlandish, and not too far off…
I predicted we'd limp into the playoffs.
Do you realize Betty White is a milf for me? Ouch
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
by sternfan1 on Sep 3, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i forgot about the S-Rod ABs prediction
good thing kapler had that nagging “sprained ankle”…
by LukeBaileysaStud on Nov 18, 2010 1:48 PM EST reply actions
Kind of on the mark
Los will post a wOBA <.360
Carl Crawford stays the whole season with Rays and works out a team-friendly (but not super friendly) extension.
Aaron King is still my homeboy… iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
by baetown415 on Mar 29, 2010 2:41 PM PDT reply actions
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
STILL?
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 18, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
wOBA < .360 isn't really too far of a stretch.
Founding member of the Leslie Anderson fan club.
by staplemaniac on Nov 18, 2010 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
wOBA < .360 isn't really too far of a stretch.
Founding member of the Leslie Anderson fan club.
by staplemaniac on Nov 18, 2010 5:24 PM EST up reply actions

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