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Rays Preseason Goals and Predictions Revisted

As I find myself in a quasi state of still reflecting on last season more than looking forward to next season I was reminded of two open items that merit discussion: Joe Maddon's preseason goal of the starting rotation pitching 1,000 innings; and our Improbable Prediction Contest

I've been meaning to research this for some time now, but since the Rays season ended the thought has popped in my head but I've yet to act on it until now.  I suppose part of the reason was that I knew, the five starters couldn't have reached the 1000 inning marker with Niemann and Davis taking a August siesta.  But all in all, the rotation was very healthy.  So how close did we get? 

And for those of that you that are new (or forgot like the rest of us), we did a little preseason prediction contest where Steve asked the community to come up with two predictions that would be outliers to the consensus thought.  I thought it would be fun to go back and look at the preseason predictions we made here on DRaysBay to see how outlandishaccurate we were.  Who had the foresight to predict a Matt Garza no-hitter?  Let's see.

Star-divide

 

First, with Joe Maddon's prediction (aka Goal); a 1,000 inning rotation.  Tommy Rancel eloquently broke down the possibility here, where we learned that only one rotation (the Cardinals) achieved the feat in 2009.  This year, six teams reached the 1,000 marker led by the Phillies with 1035.1 innings.  The others; Sea, LAA, Bos, ChiSox & SF all rode their horses past the barrier.  The Rays however, ended up with 999.2 innings out of the starters, just one measely K away from hitting a k.  For those sticklers out there that remember Maddon was looking for the original five starters to hit the goal, well they ended up with 955.1 combined, which was more than the opening day five of the six teams above them (and SF was the only other team to use as few as seven starters).  So Joe, while you may not have got your wish, you were pretty darn close.

NAME

GS

W

L

IP

David Price

31

19

6

207.2

Matt Garza

32

15

10

204.0

James Shields

33

12

15

202.1

Jeff Niemann

29

11

8

173.1

Wade Davis

29

12

10

168.0

Jeremy Hellickson

4

3

0

26.1

Andy Sonnanstine

4

1

1

18.0

Totals

162

73

50

999.2

Now, for you fools.  Let's take a look at some of our wise and sage-like predictions (actuals in parenthesis):

  • Zobrist hitting 30+ HR's and Sonny with a FIP <3.5 out of the pen, FreeZorilla (10 and 4.87)
  • Price demoted to the minors with an ERA >5, RaysTheRoof (led team in IP and 2.72 ERA)
  • Carlos Pena 40+ HR and <20 1B's, BWoodrum (28 & 49)
  • Navarro BB >10% and Aki 4 WAR, Andy Hellicksonstine (8.5% & -1.6)
  • And now for the good (at least better):

  • PtB released by May 1 and BJ >45 steals, Stpetelawyer (May 14th release date & 42 SB's)
  • 2 Starters >15 wins and S-Rod gets more AB's than Kapler & Joyce combined, LukeBaileysaStud (Price and Garza & 343 v. 340)
  • And as hinted earlier, the winner has to be BossmanJunior with Matt Garza throws a no-hitter.  Congrats other BJ, I believe Steve owes you a vintage R.J. Anderson rookie card.

    Comment 21 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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    I knew Pena was getting too many singles!

    In all seriousness, though, good post. I nearly forgot about that one. Is it time for the 2011 edition now? I can’t wait!

    A DRaysBay writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

    by BWoodrum on Nov 18, 2010 8:32 AM EST reply actions  

    I predicted Price would win the Cy Young

    and that Jake McGee would have more IP than Soriano…….

    Founding member of the Leslie Anderson fan club.

    by staplemaniac on Nov 18, 2010 9:00 AM EST reply actions  

    I thought about giving you a shout-out on Price

    Being that it is timely with todays impending news.

    by Mulva on Nov 18, 2010 10:52 AM EST up reply actions  

    I don't think he wins it

    but I was darned close.

    Founding member of the Leslie Anderson fan club.

    by staplemaniac on Nov 18, 2010 12:22 PM EST up reply actions  

    Oh man, I completely forgot about this.

    Thanks for taking a look back! I actually got as far as finding a place to make custom baseball cards, but the price was a little bit high for something like this…and then it left my mind. Cool stuff.

    I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

    by Steve Slowinski on Nov 18, 2010 9:05 AM EST reply actions  

    But I do want to stick to my word.

    So BossmanJunior, shoot me an email (in my profile) with some contact info. I’ve got lots of cards lying around here…I think I can find a worthwhile prize.

    I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

    by Steve Slowinski on Nov 18, 2010 11:18 AM EST up reply actions  

    Nugget
    Really funny: I half thought of predicting Carl Crawford winning a gold glove.
    by kericr on Mar 29, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up actions

    by firemangreg on Nov 18, 2010 11:04 AM EST reply actions  

    I predict

    that this thread looking back at predictions is rare. Kudos.

    by Salty on Nov 18, 2010 11:31 AM EST reply actions  

    Completely forgot about this as well

    If I’d remembered, I’d have been more heavily rooting for my Upton/Crawford both go 25/50 prediction.

    not too outlandish, and not too far off…

    by CBJones on Nov 18, 2010 12:08 PM EST reply actions  

    I predicted we'd limp into the playoffs.

    Do you realize Betty White is a milf for me? Ouch

    follow me on twitter @sternfan10

    by sternfan1 on Sep 3, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

    by wtbudlight on Nov 18, 2010 12:31 PM EST reply actions  

    i forgot about the S-Rod ABs prediction

    good thing kapler had that nagging “sprained ankle”…

    by LukeBaileysaStud on Nov 18, 2010 1:48 PM EST reply actions  

    Kind of on the mark
    Los will post a wOBA <.360

    Carl Crawford stays the whole season with Rays and works out a team-friendly (but not super friendly) extension.

    Aaron King is still my homeboy… iffy mechanics and all

    McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

    by baetown415 on Mar 29, 2010 2:41 PM PDT reply actions

    Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

    by baetown415 on Nov 18, 2010 3:23 PM EST reply actions  

    STILL?

    Hell yeah it is.
    Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
    by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

    by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 18, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

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