When I did my original look at pitchers with Shields strikeout and walk per nine peripherals while looking at Shields hittability, the intent was to show that you can't put Shields in that elite class saying that BABIP and HR tendencies are luck-based. Glass looked at the expected decline in BABIP back towards the league norm for pitchers with outrageously high BABIP. I wanted to take the same set of pitchers and look at what happened to their K/9 when their BABIP's came back to Earth. I dropped a few pitchers whose followup year were <100 IP. Here is the list with the last two columns indicatiing the drop in BABIP and drop in K/9:
|
Player |
BAbip |
K/9 |
Year |
nK/9 |
nBABIP |
BABIPch |
K/9ch |
|
0.358 |
6.67 |
2008 |
5.57 |
0.275 |
-0.083 |
-1.1 |
|
|
Kevin Brown |
0.357 |
6.51 |
1994 |
6.11 |
0.28 |
-0.077 |
-0.4 |
|
0.355 |
7.39 |
2008 |
5.52 |
0.295 |
-0.060 |
-1.87 |
|
|
0.355 |
7.84 |
2001 |
5.98 |
0.293 |
-0.062 |
-1.86 |
|
|
0.354 |
8.17 |
1999 |
5.83 |
0.304 |
-0.050 |
-2.34 |
|
|
Darryl Kile |
0.352 |
9 |
1996 |
7.22 |
0.266 |
-0.086 |
-1.78 |
|
0.349 |
6.78 |
2007 |
5.04 |
0.261 |
-0.088 |
-1.74 |
|
|
Chris Holt |
0.349 |
6.31 |
1999 |
5.92 |
0.338 |
-0.011 |
-0.39 |
|
John Burkett |
0.349 |
6.61 |
1997 |
6.05 |
0.328 |
-0.021 |
-0.56 |
|
0.347 |
3.35 |
2008 |
5 |
0.333 |
-0.014 |
1.65 |
|
|
0.344 |
8.1 |
2000 |
8.37 |
0.284 |
-0.060 |
0.27 |
|
|
0.343 |
6.27 |
2005 |
5.29 |
0.273 |
-0.070 |
-0.98 |
|
|
Average |
-0.057 |
-0.93 |
This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.
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