FanPost

James Shields: Follow Up to Glass FP Post

When I did my original look at pitchers with Shields strikeout and walk per nine peripherals while looking at Shields hittability, the intent was to show that you can't put Shields in that elite class saying that BABIP and HR tendencies are luck-based. Glass looked at the expected decline in BABIP back towards the league norm for pitchers with outrageously high BABIP. I wanted to take the same set of pitchers and look at what happened to their K/9 when their BABIP's came back to Earth. I dropped a few pitchers whose followup year were <100 IP. Here is the list with the last two columns indicatiing the drop in BABIP and drop in K/9:

Player

BAbip

K/9

Year

nK/9

nBABIP

BABIPch

K/9ch

Kevin Millwood

0.358

6.67

2008

5.57

0.275

-0.083

-1.1

Kevin Brown

0.357

6.51

1994

6.11

0.28

-0.077

-0.4

Ian Snell

0.355

7.39

2008

5.52

0.295

-0.060

-1.87

Glendon Rusch

0.355

7.84

2001

5.98

0.293

-0.062

-1.86

Aaron Sele

0.354

8.17

1999

5.83

0.304

-0.050

-2.34

Darryl Kile

0.352

9

1996

7.22

0.266

-0.086

-1.78

Scott Olsen

0.349

6.78

2007

5.04

0.261

-0.088

-1.74

Chris Holt

0.349

6.31

1999

5.92

0.338

-0.011

-0.39

John Burkett

0.349

6.61

1997

6.05

0.328

-0.021

-0.56

Livan Hernandez

0.347

3.35

2008

5

0.333

-0.014

1.65

Javier Vazquez

0.344

8.1

2000

8.37

0.284

-0.060

0.27

Jeff Francis

0.343

6.27

2005

5.29

0.273

-0.070

-0.98

Average

-0.057

-0.93

We know we should expect a change on a per-nine basis because a smaller percentage of batted balls are being turned into outs. However the average reduction of almost a full K/9 shows that we should expect a drop in Shields K's as his BABIP falls back towards the norm. There is no shame in Shields falling a strikeout per nine back to 7.25ish, but we would no longer be comparing him to the same elite level of pitchers who produced the same peripherals but without all the hits and home runs, a much more impressive feat. 

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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