Who should the Rays target for Garza?
by thewb on Nov 3, 2010 3:30 PM EDT
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PrintPiggybacking on previous discussion on this topic, I want to throw out more prospects as potential trade targets for Garza. I've included most of the bats that I can find that would be in discussion for one of the top 50 offensive prospects in the minors.
I've also included potential rotations for each team to begin to assess who has a need for a Garza-type pitcher. Only 20 teams made the cut of having a potential top 50 bat.
Could OAK, MIL, or FLA (new stadium soon) make some sense?
So here's the data ... have some fun!
ARI - Saunders, Kennedy, Hudson, R Lopez?, Enright?
Rotation Need: Yes
Compete in next 2 years: Not likely
1B Allen
BAL - Guthrie, Matusz, Tillman, Britton, Bergesen, Arrieta
Rotation Need: No
Compete in next 2 years: Not in AL East
SS Machado, 3B Bell
CHC -Dempster, Wells, Gorzelanny, Zambrano, Silva, Coleman
Rotation Need: No
Compete in next 2 years: ?
OF Jackson, 3B Vitters
CIN -Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Wood, Leake (Chapman in pen next year?)
Rotation Need: Prob not
Compete in next 2 years: Yes
1B Alonso, C Mesoraco, OF Frazier, OF Heisey
CLE -Carmona, Carrasco, Masterson, Talbot, Laffey
Rotation Need: Yes
Compete in next 2 years: ?
3B Chisenhall, OF Weglarz, 2B Kipnis
COL - Jimenez, Cook, Hammel, Francis, Chacin
Rotation Need: No
Compete in next 2 years: Yes
C Rosario
FLA -Johnson, Nolasco, Sanchez, Volstad, Sanabia
Rotation Need: do they upgrade over Volstad/Sanabia at back end?
Compete in next 2 years: Yes
1B Morrison (listed b/c of 1b logjam), 3B Dominguez
HOU -Rodriguez, Myers, Happ, Norris, Paulino, Lyles (coming soon)
Rotation Need: Probably not with Lyles coming soon
Compete in next 2 years: Unlikely
1B Wallace
KC -Greinke, Hochevar, Bannister, O'Sullivan (Montgomery, Lamb & others coming)
Rotation Need: Yes, but lots of prospect arms coming
Compete in next 2 years: Unlikely
1B Hosmer, 3B Moustakas & C Myers (all likely untouchables)
LAA -Haren, Weaver, Santana, Kazmir, Pineiro
Rotation Need: No
Compete in next 2 years: Yes
OF Trout (untouchable), C Conger, 1B Trumbo
LAD -Kershaw, Bilingsley, Lilly, Kuroda (FA), Padilla (FA)
Rotation Need: Yes, if don't resign FA
Compete in next 2 years: Yes
SS Gordon, 1B Sands
MIL -Gallardo, Wolf, Naveson
Rotation Need: Yes
Compete in next 2 years: Yes
3B Gamel, 2B Lowrie
MIN -Liriano, Baker, Pavano (FA), Slowey, Duensing, Blackburn
Rotation Need: Yes
Compete in next 2 years: Yes
OF Hicks, OF Revere, SS Sano
NYM -Maine, Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey, Mejia, Santana (recovering)
Rotation Need: Yes - Santana recovering, Mejia developing in minors
Compete in next 2 years: Possibly
SS Flores, OF Martinez, 1B/OF Duda
NYY -Sabathia, Hughes, Burnett, Vazquez, Pettitte (FA)
Rotation Need: Yes
Compete in next 2 years: Yes
C Montero (untouchable)
OAK -Anderson, Braden, Gonzalez, Cahill, Mazarro, Outman
Rotation Need: Maybe
Compete in next 2 years: Maybe
1B Carter, SS Green
PHI -Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Blanton, Moyer
Rotation Need: is the ageless Moyer back?
Compete in next 2 years: Yes
OF Brown (untouchable), 1B Singleton
PIT - Duke, Maholm, Ohelndorf, McDonald, Morton, Lincoln
Rotation Need: Yes, but young arms on the way in rebuilding process
Compete in next 2 years: No
C Sanchez
SEA - Hernandez, Pineda, Vargas, Fister, French
Rotation Need: Yes
Compete in next 2 years: Maybe
2B Ackley, SS Franklin
WAS -Zimmerman, Lannan, Marquis, Maya, Stammen, L Hernandez (FA?)
Rotation Need: Yes
Compete in next 2 years: Maybe
OF Harper (untouchable), C Norris, C Ramos, SS/2B Espinosa
This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.
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Why Oakland might make some sense ...
They’ve got 4 cheap cost-controlled SP with Vin Mazarro the best option for the 5th starter job. They took fliers on Sheets and Duchscherer last year, but both flopped due to injury.
Chris Carter has a serious power bat with some serious K issues and could be blocked. I think he would be an interesting name for the Rays to look at.
How does Carter fit into the A’s plans?
Daric Barton, while not the protypical 1b, plays a good 1b and posted a 12.9 UZR, 359 wOBA and 4.9 WAR. Young an cost controlled, he should man 1b for a while for the A’s.
Jack Cust, who they waived and then resigned last year, seemingly had the BABIP gods smiling down on him. Even though his ISO has been in hard core regression mode, he posted a 371 wOBA and 2.4 WAR while not seeing much action in the field. Do they see through the BABIP induced fortune and shift Cust to the side to give Davis a shot at full-time DH?
The OF consists of some combo of Coco Crisp, Ryan Sweeney, Rajai Davis, with Michael Taylor waiting in the wings. Conor Jackson should be ready to begin next season. Non-tender candidate, but could be resigned. Anyhow, that OF is very solid defensively, but provides little pop. Is Carter a legit candidate to play the OF?
With Carter flopping in his first small sample size of MLB action, would the A’s be open to dealing him to further bolster a strong rotation?
Sickels on Carter and Green
Chris Carter, 1B-OF, Athletics: Hit .258/.365/.529 with 31 homers in Triple-A, then .186/.256/.329 in 24 major league games. Love the power, and I think he’ll make adjustments.
Grant Green, SS, Athletics: Hit .318/.363/.520 in High-A California League, 20 homers. Needs to improve plate discipline and defense.
Agree on Carter. Love that power/patience combo.
Talked to a friend of mine with the A’s. He said the 5th starter will probably be a competition between Mazarro/Outman. Also, he said NO WAY Carter can play a legit OF.
Speaking as an A's fan
Carter has less than 90 games experience in the outfield for his career. He looked bad in limited time with Oakland but his ultimate skill level is very much in the air.
Talent wise Garza for Carter makes some sense. But it’s unlikely the A’s will trade their best power prospect for a SP considering Cahill/Anderson/Braden/Gio.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Brewers have 2 blocked prospects
The Brewers have two really nice prospects blocked at their respective positions. Could they look to move one to firm up their rotation?
The might be set with Gallardo, Wolf, Capuano, Naveson, and Bush … but definitely could use an upgrade in the last couple slots.
With a week NL Central, could they make a bold move and try to capture the pennant?
Brett Lawrie, 2B, Brewers: Hit .285/.346/.451 with 30 steals, 16 triples in Double-A. Still working on defense, can be streaky, but very intriguing. (Sickels)
Lawrie is blocked by Weeks. Could be shifted to the OF b/c of Weeks or possibly defensive issues, but a nice bat here.
Matt Gamel, 3B, Brewers: .304/.388/.496 with 27 doubles, 14 home runs, and 48BB/81K in 359 AB. No place to play with Fielder at 1b and McGehee at 3b. Does not appear to have agility to play in the OF.
Lawrie would move to OF
Gamel might be a good ‘buy cheap’ option though. His status has waned as it’s become more an more apparent that he’s just a defensive butcher everywhere on the field.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Interesting take on Lawrie
Brett Lawrie, 2B, MIL
Where he came from: Lawrie was drafted in the 1st round, 16th overall in 2008 out of high school in British Colombia.
Why he’s here: Lawrie has hit well since his debut. Position has always been a concern for him and still is, but he has played adequately at 2B and has the athletecism to improve to average. His hitting ability and speed are his main assets.
Where he’s headed: Lawrie should debut in Milwaukee in 2011 and make an impact immediately. He is deceptively fast and will steal 20+ bases, hit .270 and hit a lot of doubles along with 10-15 HR’s. This will make him one of the better offensive 2B in the league.
Brew Crew Ball's take
Did a little browsing over @ Brew Crew Ball. Consensus there is that Lawrie doesn’t stick at 2b, but becomes a corner OF.
They brought up the Rays pitching depth … and were split over whether they’d give up Lawrie for Hellickson! Ummm … not happening.
Of course, it is going to be biased.
Hellickson is much better of a prospect.
I would do it for Shields.
Those Brewers fans and their bias!
/runs away
by Daniel Berlyn on Nov 4, 2010 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Hilarious
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm laughing at calling other fans biased and then you letting your anti-Shields bias creep into your opinion, be objective mang
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I probably would swing that deal, btw, but don't know enough about Lawrie other than his name to be certain
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
We all would, preferably for as little as possible
If that option is a retread, a deep prospect, an on the verge prospect, an MLB player, an International player, or whatever is where we will see Uncle Andy lead us. I have the utmost faith that whatever he does, the process behind it will be solid.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 5, 2010 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Davis is gone
I’m pretty sure Bush is as well. Cappy is a FA, but the way the org helped him over the years I wonder if there is some sort of gentleman’s agreement that might bring him back.
Weeks and Fielder are both in their last year of arb. Lawrie probably spends next season in AAA. The impression I get from the org is that they want to trade one or more major leaguers to get pitching. On the other hand, I can remember Melvin making a comment that he’d trade anyone if the offer was right. I don’t think they would trade those guys for Garza, but maybe they would.
Gamel almost certainly starts the season with the club next season regardless of trades. Last I heard was that he took quickly to playing the OF. I think the whole notion that he’s a horrible fielder is grossly overblown.
Gamel
Gamel is definitely not CF material and they’ve got Braun/Hart at the Corners … so if Fielder isn’t moved this offseason is he a corner INF / corner OF utility guy for the Brewers?
It depends on who is moved
I’d guess Weeks or McGehee are the 2 most likely. Its hard to say how people would move around, because the org has a policy of almost never commenting on stuff like that. I know they said he would have come North with the team last season if he didn’t injure himself.
Brewers 2011-12 Salary Commitments
C Lucroy (2011 min, 2012 min)
1B Fielder (2011 Arb3, 2012 FA)
2B Weeks (2011 Arb3, 2012 FA)
SS Escobar (2011 min, 2012 min)
3B McGehee (2011 min, 2012 Arb1)
CFCain (2011 min, 2012 min)
LF Braun (2011 $4.3, 2012 $6.3)
RF Hart (2011 $6.8, 2012 $9.3)
Does Gamel fill in for Fielder if dealt this off-season, or at the latest in 2012? IF Gamel could man the OF, would only be a corner OF and Braun and Hart are locked up long-term there.
Does Lawrie, if he can stick at the position, fit in at 2B when Weeks becomes a FA in 2012 or do they look to resign Weeks?
I think it is a forgone conclusion that Fielder will be gone at some point via trade or FA, but haven’t heard much on their intentions for Weeks.
SP Wolf (2011 $9.5, 2012 $9.5)
SP Gallardo (2011 $3.5, 2012 $5.75)
SP Naveson (2011 min, 2012 min)
SP Parra (2011 Arb1, 2012 Arb2)
SP Villanueva (2011 Arb2, 2012 Arb3) – has been SP in past
SP Capuano FA?
SP Bush FA
SP Davis FA
After looking at their rotation more in depth, looks like they could definitely use an upgrade here. With this offense and a rotation upgrade, seems as though they could definitely compete in the NL Central. I would assume their first piece to the offseason is to figure out what to do with Fielder. Significant pieces would be coming back in return if they trade him which could muddy the picture a bit.
Total Salary Committed in 2011 pre-Arb $32.4
All info from Cot’s Baseball Contracts
Brewers Rotation
Brew Crew Ball has the rotation with the last 2 slots open … Parra, Capuano, Villanueva all part of the pen.
Hart was originally a 1st base and moved to the OF because of Fielder, so he could move back and Gamel could go to 1st.
Melvin loves Weeks. There was some chatter by the TV people that made me believe that they had an agreement to agree to an extension if you know what I mean. Whether they see Lawrie at 2nd, 3rd or in the OF is anyone’s guess because they won’t comment on it. Second base is an organizational strength. They should trade Weeks or let him go to FA next year IMO, but I don’t expect them to.
To make it all the more perplexing, they’ve made statements that they are changing and want to trade for pitching rather than primarily use FAs. Whether that means MLBers or minor leaguers, who knows, but as a smaller market, they need to keep prospects generally.
Don't have time right now as I'm about to leave, but just wanted to get inand say this looks like a very good, well-researched FP.
Thanks, and I’ll rec later once I do it justice and read it.
The other thing
Is that maybe we don’t target a prospect? Maybe we just target another young-ish player who just fits our needs better?
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Trade Value for Garza
Would depend on the team in question?
If the Oakland A’s (or other teams like Milwaukee, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Washington etc) were looking to add a starting pitcher and Friedman called about Garza, would the conversation quickly turn to Wade Davis?
Davis is two years younger than Garza, controllable for two additional seasons, and in 2010 had similar numbers to Garza. Is Davis’ ceiling comprable to Matt Garza? Wouldn’t teams be more willing to deal higher ceiling/lower level prospects for a Garza (due to contractural obligations) but a closer to major league ready/higher level guy be more suitable for a Wade Davis?
Quick Look at 2010
In 2010, Wade Davis made 29 starts and pitched 168 innings had an ERA/FIP/xFIP(4.81) and K/9(6.05)/BB/9(3.32)HR/9(1.29)
In 2010, Garza made 32 starts and pitched 204.2 innings.had an ERA/FIP/xFIP(4.51) and K/9(6.60);BB/9(2.77); HR/9(1.23).
Winter meetings should be full of rumors. I envision Friedman sitting back in a chair similar to the opening scene in The Godfather while a line of GMs forms outside the door all hoping for a chance to have Friedman help to solve their pitching woes. (A fun vision for a long winter).
I would suppose the cost control has more value to us than others
That said, your point is valid. The hope would be someone overpays for Garza as ESPN would refer to him as a “Ace of the Staff” or whatever as compared to an young pitcher with upside, leaving us with comparable output at lower cost.
Friedman should have a lot of fun at the winter meetings this year
A lot of the Rays success next year depends on how much he can wheel and deal.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 4, 2010 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions
If you were to deal with Texas ...
I wouldn’t mind having Max Ramirez, not at all as a centerpiece, but struggled through hamate bone injury last year and has been a monster in the past. Probably not full-time C material, but could play 1b/dh and maybe occasionally backup C.
I just pray they stay away from Wallace.
No way that guy ever hits in the majors. It is a bad sign when you get traded that often and fail to hit in the majors.
Sample size much?
Look at how Gio Gonzalez worked out. You can say he’s not going to be great for a valid reason but that’s just lazy.
by Daniel Berlyn on Nov 4, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Not lazinss at all.
Find one recent report that says he will hit in th majors. All the scouts are losing hope in him, and Toronto shipped him away for a player of far less value if you believe Wallace will be good.
The Phillies and Blue Jays both valued Gose more than Michael Taylor
His defensive and positional value as well as tools are top-notch. Regardless, he’s hit at every level besides his small sample stint in the Majors after being traded three times in a year. Give him some time and he should be passable.
by Daniel Berlyn on Nov 4, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
He's an awkward giant of a kid with mountain thighs and a short swing
Give him an extended chance in the Majors and if he still craps out then fine, it happens. Then again, I don’t see you backing up your claim.
by Daniel Berlyn on Nov 4, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay.
Kieth Law said his hips are too wide to swing quick enough and hit pitches inside. He was just so awful in the majors.
He's going to make adustments. He won't be nearly that poor.
He’s 23 and he doesn’t even have a third of a season under his belt. He may have been overmatched but he did improve as time went on and as little as he did play in the Majors last year it doesn’t tell us much at all. There is work to be done but he’ll do it. I don’t think the Rays will be interested but he is going to hit at some point.
by Daniel Berlyn on Nov 4, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep.
I follow propsects alot, so I remember that. I am not lying to get my point across. He really said that.
On the other hand
Keith Law’s track record is mixed, at best. It’s nice that they gave someone at ESPN a pulpit to talk about prospects, but I find it interesting that the most mainstream website uses someone for this who has a lot of opinions that stray pretty far from the mainstream.
Not that I’m disagreeing on Wallace. That seems to be the consensus on Wallace.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Rotations in need of an upgrade
Anyone have time to run through the rotations listed above and see which ones could legitimate use an upgrade?
We could take that relatively short list and then dive into salary dynamics for the team, prospects/young players available, and see if we find any ideal matches.
Probably the more realistic way to approach this than to just arbitrarily cherry pick the most attractive prospects regardless of team need.
Norris had some injury issues this year, but at high A he managed .235/.419/.419 in 298 AB. Looks like he has pretty good power and he draws a lot of walks (89 walks vs. 94 strikeouts). Have read some rumors of him potentially moving out from behind the plate, though Sickels comments that he thinks Norris can remain a C. Not sure if rumors of him moving from behind the dish are due to organizational depth at C or a statement of his defensive potential.
Narrowing the Scope
Agree or Disagree?
I think you can rule out the following teams above from being interested in Garza …
due to rotation depth: CHC, CIN, COL, LAA, NYY, PHI
due to rebuilding: HOU, KC, PIT, ARI, CLE
It seems the team interested in Garza would believe that it is within a window of contending in his next 2 team controlled years before FA. Thank leaves you with the following teams to possibly work with …
FLA
LAD
MIL
MIN
OAK
What do you think about this list … not from a prospect standpoint, but from a reasonable trade partner given their rotation and playoff aspirations?
Who is out next year?
They’ve got Desmond/Espinosa manning middle INF next year.
Texas is someone to keep an eye on.
If they miss out on Lee, the new ownership group may feel the need to make a splash. They have good depth in the system, so they could afford to move some prospects. Not sure they have quite enough positional depth to do it, but one guy I’d like to target is Engel Belltre. The tools are there, and he finally put up a good statline in high A this year. Another name to watch is 3B Mike Olt. 3B isn’t a need, but he could move across the diamond (not sure how his bat plays at 1B) or to the OF/2B. He was a supplemental pick in 2010, but since he signed in June he could be a PTBNL as early as January. Here’s what Sickles had to say in his Rangers’ top 10 from this week:
5) Mike Olt, 3B, Grade B: Fine glove at third base, should post a strong OBP, home run power still a bit of a question. Expect him to be a solid regular.
6) Engel Beltre, OF, Grade B-: Might go with a Grade B here, undecided grade. If I do that, he could move ahead of Olt and/or Scheppers. I love the tools and youth, but there is just something here that makes me wonder. . .I want to see him in Arizona before I make a final decision. Spots 4-6 are still in flux, so no whining about it please.
What about the Padres?
They have a team option for Chris Young, a mutual option for Garland, and Correia is a FA. Then they khve Latos, Richard, and Leblanc who aren’t even in arb. yet. They could trade for Garza and make a serious run in A-Gonz walk year.
I’d love to get Dacker. He’s an on-base machine with power. He’s actually played CF in the past, so despite his bad body I’m sure he’d be passable in LF. Thir system had a pretty bad year, though.
Decker is an interesting guy
Sickels on Dacker: Jaff Decker, OF, Padres: Hit .262/.374/.500 in the High-A California League. Still has strong power/patience combination.
Interesting take on Decker
Jaff Decker, LF, SD
Where he came from: Decker was drafted 42nd overall by the Padres out of high school in Arizona.
Why he’s here: Decker reached base over half of the time in his rookie league debut in 2008. He followed that up with a great season in the Midwest League in 2009. This year he struggled with injuries but had a very good second half to get to .262/.374/.500. The owner of a great plate approach, he will always reach base at a very good rate. His biggest knock is his weight and athletic ability.
Where he’s headed: Decker will never be known for his defense, but should be an average LF with work. The bat is his calling card. He should hit .300/.400/.525 annually.
I like him, but it would take him +other stuff for Garza.
Him for Shields right up. Shields can forget his homer problems and they have a good pitcher. We get a nice propect. Plus, I love the idea of dumpingYields.
I too love the idea of dumping a good and cheap SP off the Rays.
(Note: I’m the Yankees/Red Sox)
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I am not a Shields fan at all.
No way can he be called good unless he shows that he can pitch. Also, if we don’t trade him this offseason and he has another poor to average year in 2011, we will probably get nothing for him.
What more does he have to prove?
His fastball is mediocre, but when he’s spotting it well, he’s a K machine that doesn’t BB anybody. That’s incredibly valuable.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I need to see him spot it well.
He dosen’t walk many guys, but he misses in the zone so much. If he could return to form….
You can try this, but I don't put much credibility into the sample sizes in a lot of cases, especially when it comes to pitch recognition
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7059&position=P#pitchvalues
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Right. Because 2007-2009 didn't prove Shields was good.
And he’s totally toast. That career high strikeout rate is proof of it. Oh.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2010 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
But why do strikeouts matter if he gave up a career high in hits, homers, and ERA.
Not saying he is toast at all, but his BABIP has been bad the last two years. It is a pretty good emphasis of talent over a long enough period of time.
"Not saying he is toast at all, but his BABIP has been bad"
What?
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
BABIP is never a measure of talent.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 4, 2010 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Please explain.
It really isn’t a stat of luck either. Not really sure what it is at all. But have you noticed that all good pitchers have low BABIPs over a few seasons while good hitters have high ones?
But that's not exactly true.
Cliff Lee had a .302 BABIP this season – .326 BABIP last year.
Zack Grienke – .314 BABIP in 2010, .313 BABIP in 2009.
Felix Hernandez – .273 BABIP in 2010, .289 in 2009, .316 in 2008.
Josh Johnson- .308 BABIP in 2010, .299 in 2009.
Francisco Liriano- .340 BABIP in 2010
It is what it is. Neither pitchers or batters can maintain abnormal BABIPs for extended periods of time, unless there’s something really weird going on. It’s influenced by luck, but it’s also just highly volatile.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 5, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
James Shields' BABIP:
2007: .292
2008: .292
2009: .317
2010: .354
Spot the outlier. The other two are within the general “normal” range, although even 2009’s seems fluky. Even horrible, crappy pitchers don’t sport .350 BABIPs multiple years in a row.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 5, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Edit: other "three"
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 5, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
From 1997 to 1999, Pedro Martinez's BABIP got worse every year too.
1997: .274
1998: .284
1999: .343
The next year, his BABIP fell to .253.
It may seem like Shields’s BABIP is trending up, but there’s no way to predict what it’s going to be next year. If we had to take a guess, it’s much more likely that it’d be around his career average (.316) than what he did last year (.354).
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 5, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
IIRC
Shields still had the highest or second highest BABIP on the team in 2008 though. Our defense was just that good that year.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
That's not true
It usually isn’t in the majors though. Pitchers who are more ‘hittable’ do exist. Easier pitches to see that move less means the hitter is more likely to be able to direct the ball where he wants it to go. Just usually the most hittable pitchers get weeded out in the minors, or before the draft even. It’s like being a boxer who can’t take a punch – they DO exist, but you probably won’t see it at the top levels because someone with a glass jaw will get knocked out a bunch of times before they ever make it to the elite level.
But as I’ve mentioned a number of times, BABIP against is actually one of the best predictors of whether a low level pitching prospect will be able to make it to the majors, even if there’s a lot of random variation involved.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
And even Voros McCracken
who invented this whole theory about balls in play being created equal has backtracked on it somewhat/
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Nov 6, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I know...I was being glib.
I should have thrown in the qualifier: “for major-league caliber pitchers”. But I don’t think that influences the debate here at all.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 6, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Opening up spot for Hellboy
If you can deal an SP for help close to the majors and open up a slot for Hellickson who should be atleast as good as the arm we are dealing … isn’t that a win for the Rays both next year and going forward?
Just don’t think you can afford to ‘miss’ with what you get back. Tight budget = low margin for error.
I think it's crazy to assume that Hellboy, and to another extent, Jennings, are going to come up and replace guys right away
Look at Wade Davis’s cup of coffee vs. first half. It takes adjustment and Helly will need to make them just the same.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually think Helly won't need adjustments.
I mean, at least that is what experts say. He is a very polished pitcher. He shouldn’t improve, but he shouldn’t start off badly.
He's basically Shields, he'll need to make adjustments once there's a book on him
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Jennings more adjustments than Hellickson
I think Jennings will definitely have an adjustment period.
Seems less likely, in my opinion, that Hellickson will struggle in the big show. His control and command of pitches gives him a much better shot than most young SP at coming up and immediately being a production rotation member. His K/BB, HR9, FIP all seem to bode well for significant big league success.
I don’t agree that Hellickson will have to make adjustments, just think his control and command give him the ability to make those adjustments faster than most.
Oh no doubt, I think he'll struggle with the longball at times, but generally look pretty solid
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, once the league adjusts to him.
But he is quite different that Shields. His fastball is better. His change is kinda different, and he is alot more gutsy. Has a better curve to and a usable cutter.
I didn't see gutsy over at Fangraphs could you shoot me a link?
I don’t think his fastball is any better, his change isn’t as good, his curve seems like a really solid pitch that he can get chases with or throw for strikes (he has two different ones IIRC). Shieldsy’s cutter is beyond garbage.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Someone come up with a metric for gutsy ... or scrappy ... I like that!
What kind of a premium could Boras charge for a gutsy player if he could only get a measurable for that!
His changeup is just as good.
What I meant by gutsy is he fools hitters alot. Shileds does too (as evendenced by the K’s) but often gets pounded when they are not fooled. And his fastball is so much better than Shield’s. The location and the movement. Shields fastball has been as good in the past, but not recently.
I'm not really sure where you're getting that Hellickson's change is superior to Shields, but it's not.
Shields has one of the best in the game.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Mr. scout, Shields has an 80 change, it's one of the best pitches in the game
I guess I’ll have to take your word on it as I assume you have watched him many times in the minors. I sure as hell wouldn’t think I could scale a pitch based on seeing less than 100
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Take my word.
Plenty of Rays fans on other sights can verify that I follow propsects. I have seen Helly pitch 10-15 times before he was called up.
Shields change was 80 when his fastball was better. 2008-2009 and the beginning of 2010.
You are the best
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd probably rate each of them five lower
But can’t be confident with Helly yet. I’d say Shields 75 and Helly’s 70. And Shields’ change just doesn’t seem to have as much hard bite to it as it did a few years back. I wonder if PitchFX bears that out though.
Does anyone know if you can use PitchFX to determine where a ball starts to break?
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
His change is worse, his curve is about equal, and his fastball is not that better.
Also he’s not as durable as Shields.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 4, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Can't wait to see it, I just hope we aren't playing our games on Mars next year.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Depending on what you're using, I'm sure some of his stats will be better
As I said above, I think there will be an adjustment period through his first 15 starts or so. He’ll look extremely good in some and extremely bad in others. How did he look out of the pen this year? You can’t look that bad and just chalk it up to, well he was in the pen. How good is he with runners on? How does he pitch in a raucous road stadium in a tight game? We’ll see and I’m extremely excited for him, I’m just trying to temper my expectations as everyone else should be.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
He was a relative unknown 3 years ago.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't trust numbers from CAL, unless they're something like .350/.450/.600. Something like this is inflated by the parks.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
SD Rotation Contracts
SP Latos (2011 min)
SP Richard (2011 min)
SP Stauffer (2011 Arb1)
SP LeBlanc (2011 min)
SP Simon Castro & Corey Luebke waiting in the wings.
SP Garland (looks to be FA)
SP Young (option declined, might bring back cheaply?)
SP Correia (FA)
Garza would be at worst their second best starter.
He might be close to Latos in that park/league. Stauffer’s more of a RP than a SP on a playoff team. Who knows how their payroll structure will be for next year going forward, and they might be looking more for cheap, controllable bats than arms.
Looking Deeper into Nationals System
Looking at the bats in the Nationals system …
OF Harper. Don’t really need to discuss. Untouchable.
C Norris. Age: 21 Bats: R
2009 A 417 wOBA 286/416/513 in 540 pa
2010 A+ 391 wOBA 235/419/419 in 399 pa
C Ramos. Age: 23 Bats: R
2009 AA 360 wOBA 317/341/454 in 214 pa
2010 AAA 276 wOBA 241/280/345 in 295 pa (twins)
2010 AAA 355 wOBA 316/341/494 in 82 pa (nats)
2010 MLB 312 wOBA 278/305/405 in 92 pa
SS/2B Espinosa. Age: 22 Bats: B
2009 A+ 382 wOBA 264/375/460 in 576 pa
2010 AA 356 wOBA 259/332/461 in 434 pa
2010 AAA 345 wOBA 295/349/463 in 108 pa
2010 MLB 301 wOBA 214/277/447 in 112 pa
OF Burgess. Age: 22 Bats: L
2009 A+ 332 wOBA 235/325/410 in 545 pa
2010 A+ 350 wOBA 259/348/427 in 442 pa
2010 AA 444 wOBA 284/391/649 in 87 pa
1B Marrero. Age: 22 Bats: R
2009 A+ 371 wOBA 287/360/464 in 469 pa
2009 AA 334 wOBA 267/345/387 in 84 pa
2010 AA 355 wOBA 294/350/450 in 577 pa
Norris looks most interesting from a Rays perspective. Espinosa looks like a nice prospect, but likely a duplicate of SRod.
How would you guys feel about Garza for Kyle Blanks?
The Padres are banking on him working out pretty hard, but I’m sure the TJ got them pretty scared. They’re talking a good game about extending A-Gon and I’m sure they made a lot more last year than they projected. From a value standpoint are you guys cool with a straight up or who would need to add a piece? Kid had the surgery in late July, he could probably make an appearance toward the end of next year, and be fully ready by ST going into 2012. I think it solves a lot of problems and the Padres may see him as moveable if they’re going to try to win this year.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 1:15 PM EDT reply actions
Interesting post hype guy.
Nice power/patience blend.
Krate skyrocketed in last 2 years as he advanced. 27% in AAA (280 pa)and 40% in MLB (292 pa).
Lower level Krate provides promise that possibly more of an adjustment period is necessary … or … just the fact that he is gigantic and more advanced pitchers can find the holes in his swing.
Blanks scared?
Are you saying the Padres are scared about his arm from an OF standpoint … that if they locked up AGonz at 1B then Blanks would have no position to play b/c his arm won’t play ni the OF after TJ?
He wasn't much of an OF when his arm was right and the bat plays anywhere.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Mets have many prospects better than F-Mart
I am a Mets fan, and I woul dgive you F-Mart in a heart beat, but I believe Duda would be the one you guys want from our minor league OFs. SS Florse still seems to be moving ahead toward the majors nicely
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
Is there any possible way that we could somehow sneak a very discouted Beltran for Garza.
Say the Mets pay 12 million?
Why would we want to do that?
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
For no reason.
I just love Beltran. It would be a horrible trade. I wasn’t really being serious.
I could see a discounted K-rod for something though….
Maybe we could get Jonny Damon on the cheap and sign Dye for peanuts. GET THE OLD GANG BACK TOGETHER!
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't hate anyone, especially you. You're espousing your opinion in front of a sea of great, intelligent baseball fans, kudos for having some guts
I just don’t agree with everything you say. It’s cool.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 4, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I want a Molina
And not that doofus in Boston who wasn’t even related.
Should the Rays target one of them? Probably not. Will they? Definitely not. But I still want one.
Just curious, who would we want more, Lawrie or Alonso?
While Lawrie is the better prospect, he might come cheaper because the Brewers have a more significant need.
To get Alonso, I think there needs to be a three way trade. Theyd don’t need a starter.
Angels: Give Napoli and prospect and get Garza
Reds: Give Alonso and get Napoli and prospect
Rays: Get Alonso and give Garza
Alonso for Garza isn't enough.
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
Yonder Alonso is not enough in return for Matt Garza in my opinion.
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
Reds don't really need a C
Have Mesaroco knocking on the door and Grandall following him up.
Hannigan/Hernandez weren’t bad last year either and both gunned down some runners last year.
Hmmm, I thought I saw someone somewhere saying they needed one. I did forget about Grandal.
But on the other hand, they expect to be in the playoffs next year, and I don’t believe Mesaroco is ready. Napoli wouldn’t stay for long, but would give them a good C in 2011. Plus, they get the prospct,
Lawrie/Weglarz/D Norris
one of these three would work… Weglarz is a potential monster LH bat, who could DH. may need a change of scenery. Norris is also a monster and could C/DH. Lawrie could 2B/DH and play some of. not as much power as the other two, but quick wrists bode well for future power production
Is there any way at all
that we could pull a Garza to SF for Belt or are they definetly keeping him? I know recently Sickels said he was impressed by him so far with the bat and that he showed good speed.
Yeah BJ Upton was the 5th best offensive player on a team where only 5 players played everyday on the offensive side of the ball, and Upton being one of them.
I can't wait until Matt Garza wins a Cy Young with another team after the Rays trade him
Josh Freeman is beast!
Bullpen
Most of this season, there were lots of people saying…the Rays “have to” go get a ‘Big Bat’. Even playing rookies for much of the season and some of the veterans having down, even awful seasons for much if not most of the year, the Rays were among the League Leaders in scoring runs.
We have no idea how well those young players will perform this year. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to think they’ll take it up a bit from this year.
We have one huge, gaping hole right now: The Bullpen. And the discussion is about trading arguably our best Trade Staple, a seasoned, quality Front-End Starter with Playoff experience, for hitting prospect. ???
IMO, nothing will help this team more than securing the most solid bullpen we can to back up the starters. One bat cannot nearly make up for a bad bullpen. But a good bullpen, coupled with the fine starting pitching we have can help secure alotta wins.
So let me get this straight.
You want to trade a good starting pitcher who pitches 200 innings a year for a bullpen arm who pitches 50?
That's what he suggested
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
Not Quite What I'm Saying
We came very close this year to having a ShutDown Bullpen. For the 8th & 9th Innings, we were close. IMO, our first focus should be on building a Bullpen that is as close as possible to a ShutDown 7th-8th-9th. We will likely have one of the best Rotations in Baseball, certainly in the AL, next year. It’s not unreasonable to think that Jeff Neimann will find his pre-injury form. It’s also not unreasonable, IMO, to think that we are only beginning to see the best from Wade Davis. I think that David Price is a Once-In-A-Generation Pitcher.
Jeremy will almost certainly be in the rotation. And I think most assume he’ll do well. BUT, he’ll be a Rookie and likely hit the same Rookie Wall that most hit. So we should expect that he’ll have his share of trouble games and possibly stretches next year.
Our lone offensive advantage can be having a couple “extra” innings over most of the competition. ONE Series of at-bats beats 35 points in Team BA. The Rays will likely not be a team that consistently wins slugfests. We’ll win a few. But only a few. 4-3 games should be our bread & butter. IMO, the best way to take the pressure off the entire rest of the team is to build that shutdown bullpen. AND, it’s the cheapest way to do it.
So, I’m saying that our trades and FA signings should be focused on building the bullpen and restocking the Farm System. I’m certainly NOT saying trade Matt Garza for a reliever.
I am saying we, IMO, should abandon the “Big Bat” ship. That’s a game we’ll never win.
I don't get it
You’re still saying we should focus our trades on building the bullpen rather than getting a bat, but you don’t think we should trade Garza for a reliever. Am I missing something here?
Probably Not
Though I try to net my thoughts down to the limited space of forums like this, I’m not always good at it. :(
IMO, a StraightUp Trade of James Shields for a High Quality Reliever would probably work out well for us. But that is based on a couple things. One being that his performance this year wasn’t one horrible season so much as a harbinger that he needs to add something to his repertoire if he wants a long career as a starter in the Bigs. The other being that his make-up doesn’t seem to be one of looking at this season as a wake-up call that he needs to dig in and seriously work on his game AND accept a lesser role than BigGameShields. I hope, he proves me wrong on that.
The issue with Matt Garza is really mostly money. He can command a fairly big PayDay somewhere and we have far too much good pitching to justify it here if that’s what he’s looking for. So, as the saying goes: Go Ugly Early. Trade him now when we can get a huge return. And, in my mind, that’s alot more than one relief pitcher of almost any stature. And one of big stature puts us right back where we are, a pitcher who can command a big paycheck on a team that does have pitching options that are much less expensive. And, if we’re prepared to pay that, and perhaps we are, we have Rafi Soriano and Jaoquin Benoit. The organization already sounds like they’re going to do what they can to sign at least one of those two. Signing both is a great dream. Signing one is probably doable, despite the national rumorblogs, and goes a long way to shoring up the bullpen.
There’s also still talk of the Braves sending a couple of their good young pitchers to the Rays for BJ. That could also help alot in shoring up the Pen. But the Braves apparently aren’t sure whether they want all the attitude issues that come with him, no matter how much they need an outfielder. Anyways, we got Sean Rodriguez and at least one other player who looks like a find for Scott Kazmir. We should be able, IMO, to do even better for Matt Garza.
by bimbobrandi on Nov 16, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
Die in a fucking fire
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Nov 16, 2010 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
Is it too crazy to think
That we could trade Garza for Nelson Cruz?
I know ive heard this mentioned before, especially since likely losing cliff lee would leave them looking for a veteran to anchor the young staff. Then again like the Reds, they have so many wild card rotation canidates, even Feliz could be a starter again.
Is it even crazier to think that we could still pull off a trade for Alonso? Possibly Bartlett and a B-/C+ prospect? They dont really need Garza anyways
Honestly, as far fetched as it sounds, this would be my dream offseason
by BossmanJunior333 on Nov 11, 2010 8:31 AM EST reply actions
I would like to point out that Jeff Francis is a free agent
so the Rockies do indeed have a rotation need. I highly doubt they’d deal Rosario for Garza, but they might come hard at James Shields if de la Rosa is priced out of their range.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 14, 2010 9:57 AM EST reply actions
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