Rumors and News: Octavio Dotel, Derrek Lee, and Reliever Contracts
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 22, 2010 2:41 PM EST
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PrintWith almost all of the big-name free agents and trade candidates off the market, there has been a dearth of rumors and news the past couple days. There are still one or two more big contracts likely to happen - Adrian Beltre is still out there - but we're starting to reach that time of the year where the bargain shoppers come out. With all the big names off the market and roster spots quickly disappearing, free agents find themselves with a diminishing number of options. This leads to players signing for less money then they would otherwise, and it's where general managers like Andrew Friedman can make a killing.
Today, we got some news on a couple potential Rays targets:
- Jon Morosi is reporting that Octavio Dotel is getting offers from the Blue Jays, Pirates, and Rays. Dotel is a beautiful buy-low candidate for the back of the bullpen; despite his age (37), Dotel continues to miss bats (10% SwgSt%, 10.55 K/9) and put up overall respectable numbers (4.08 ERA, 4.20 FIP). He's no Rafael Soriano and I'm unsure how he would perform in the AL East, but he's a valuable reliever that would be great to acquire for the right price.
As Jason Collette notes, though, we wouldn't want to bring him in as a closer: his splits against lefties are atrocious and there are too many strong lefties in this division. But as always, for the right price, he'd be a good piece in the back of the bullpen. I'm still rooting for Jon Rauch to get looked over and ignored, and fall into the Rays' hands. - Derrek Lee is searching for a contract in the $8-10M range, and it sounds as though he's found at least one team that will give it to him. The Orioles have been courting Adam LaRoche, trying to bring him on for multiple years, but if that falls through, Buster Olney is claiming that the Orioles are willing to offer Lee a one year, $8M contract. If that's Lee's going price at the moment, I hope the Rays are at least looking into him.
- MLBTradeRumors has averaged all the contracts from this off-season, and has a list showing the average price for players at each position. The average closer price-tag? $10M per year. The average "regular reliever" price-tag? $3M per year.
And that, my friends, is why I'm okay if the Rays don't sign a "proven closer". C'mon, Rauch! You know you want to be a Ray.
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Rauch, Rauch, Rauch
Russell at 6’8"
Niemann at 6’9"
Rauch at 6’11"
Just need a decent backcourt for a good charity basketball game
Rauch wouldn't be bad. I'm just concerned about ~7 K/9 and ~30% GB.
I think we could do better, but I wouldn’t be unhappy to see the Rays sign Rauch.
I think Dotel is a better option.
Rauch worries me with very pedestrian strikeout rates and what seems like luck on fly balls. Dotel isn’t the best against lefties, as Collette pointed out, but before 2006 his numbers against lefties were pretty good. I’m not expecting him to just get back to that, but if there’s a chance of it he’s worth a shot. Worst case scenario is he is used to mow down righties in all situations and lefties in low leverage spots.
Dotel also had more velo back in 2006. His fastball has lost a few inches
by Jason Collette on Dec 22, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
I like how you found it necessary to also tweet this image.
I still like Dotel as a strikeout pitcher who can be used in a lot of spots. Rauch would be acceptable, but I think he’s going to give up more homers this year than recently and we already have one Shields (in SF1 voice). I’m just not blown away by Rauch’s peripheral stats. The Rays can’t really be picky and I’d take either. I’m just a little higher on Dotel than Rauch.
I'm part of the skeleton crew stuck in my office today
I’ve had 0 phone calls and 2 emails – ALL DAY LONG
I am bored out of my mind.
by Jason Collette on Dec 22, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
I'm it, one call (wrong number) a couple of e-mails that are just automated reports that come in every day.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
I've actually been busy. It's been nice.
Everyone’s trying to get stuff done because nothing will be done next weeka t all.
Elliot can dunk
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Dec 22, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
We should take them on. Glass plays, so there's one.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 22, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know Wake just lost to another awful team so he's probably out fighting people smarter than him
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2010 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
Smarter than me? LOL
We’re the worst BCS team in football and basketball. Oh well, never thought I’d get to go to an Orange Bowl when I signed up to be a Deacs fan.
Also signing Hendrickson to be the 6th man.
Though he’s actually the best basketball player I’d imagine.
Spend 10 million
I think if AF is willing to spend 10 million dollars, he could try to sign both Lee and a guy like Fuentes for that amount. He could offer Fuentes the chance to be the Rays closer for maybe 3-4 million dollars. Fuentes has excellent splits against both righties and lefties, and being lefty, gives the Rays potentially three lefties in the pen Howell (when he returns) and another LOOGY option (Ramos, McGee, Swindell). Having three may be a necessity in the AL East this season. A missing piece signing like that might entice Lee to also sign and give him the opportunity to be on a play-off contending team. Maybe that is enough for him to take a 5-7 million dollar deal.
On what planet is DLee signing for less than LaRoche?
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
AND JUST NO ON FUENTES
He’s a LOOGY at this point and does not have excellent splits against righties, where do you get this shit?
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
I'll sign Octavio Fuentes or Brian Dotel in a heartbeat
by Jason Collette on Dec 22, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sure that we could get both for 85 cents and a cookie since WE'S A PLAYOFF CONTENDING TEAM!
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Historically
Fuentes has always been a reliever who has a low BAA both lefties and righties. Save for a bad 2008, he is very consistent. His problems have been giving up too many walks but it hasn’t hurt him that badly, overall. And, if given a choice, I’d rather have a lefty at the back end these days the way the division is set up.
Of the last 3 years his 2008 was his best season
wOBA against RHB 2008/09/10/career
.266/.339/.326/.312
wOBA against LHB 08/09/10/career
.245/.274/.201/.282
Sure smells like a LOOGY to me, but then again I’m using actual numbers instead of memory and shooting from the hip. His problems have been being a generally shit pitcher against righties. You’re going to have to do better. If we wouldn’t give Choate 2/2.5 we’re sure as shit not going to give Fuentes more than a million. Look past the names and check out actual facts.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
Was explained
I qualified my stand with his BAA numbers which are very good but stated his problems were walking too many hitters. You’re right..his better year was 2008(not 2009….my mistake). But overall, he has been a very good closer(in saves and save situations) overall despite having worse numbers against righties.
BAA is a pretty awful stat to judge pitchers on.
It’s like using BA to judge hitters. It should be a side number more than the main course. OBP is much, much more vital.
Then again, you’re using saves and save situations to determine good pitchers, so I’m going to guess the value of OBP is more than lost on you.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 22, 2010 8:33 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Getting tired of commenting on all the guys the Rays
are rumored to be looking at but sign elsewhere, like those high payroll markets like PIT, CIN, BAL or TOR or for that matter even the Marlins
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I'm sick and tired of all the godawful lowball offers that people like Budman think are even fucking possible. God how fucking stupid is this guy?
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
Closer money
Take out Riveria(special case) and the two terrible closer deals of the last three seasons(K-Rod and Fuentes’ Angel deal in 2008) and closers haven’t signed for more than about 5/6million a year. Putz, and Jenks making 10 and 12 million for two seasons, may be the high mark for closer types this winter(after Soriano signs). The set-up guys making 4 million per this winter is wacked but doesn’t necessarily carry over to closer money(after Sori). And if the market for closers isn’t there, it is within reason to suggest that these guys will take less on a one year deal to re-establish value and hope the closer market is higher next winter. Maybe 3-4 million for BF is low but.c’mon….offering him less than Choate? That may be your opinion but than who’s fucking stupid?
Eh, Soriano signed for $7M last year.
You may find bargain closers here and there, but generally there is a “proven closer” premium for players.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 22, 2010 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
Sort of
Soriano was traded to the Rays only after he agreed to arbitration with the Braves and basically accepted their 7.25 million salary offer as part of the deal. He technically was not a FA and may have actually made more in arbitration.
Maybe I just not clear what you're arguing. Does that go against what you were saying, that closer aren't that expensive?
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 22, 2010 7:51 PM EST up reply actions
Not in this winter's market
In this market, closers will not make what some would expect. Soriano may be lucky to make 8 million for one year and he is the best available. He may end up back with the Rays if Friedman wants to spend that amount for a closer. That would be far off the 10 million per multi-year he may have expected. And he’s the 17th highest rated FA(at 31 years old). Jenks(not ranked) a legit closer at 29 settled for 6 million a year(for two) not to close , Putz was the 25th rated FA and got 5 million. Uehera, the same age as BF and ranked higher and had a similar 2010, signed with the O’s for 3 million. Fuentes at age 35 and ranked 42 may only get the 3-4 million I suggest.
Waiting game
Seems like GM’s are being overly cautious about setting the secondary market on these guys(after the top tier guys have mostly signed) and the players are holding out hope that someone will overpay again. An aggressive, but smart GM, should be able to target a FA and offer them a fair contract with the opportunity to play on a contending team(if that is important to a player)and get a guy before other teams.
You are a fucking moron, please go somewhere else with your inane chatter.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
Yonder Alonso
I’m keeping my eye on this kid. I would if Cincy would be open to moving him for some of our young pitching?
We should definitely trade Hellickson and Moore for Alonzo and a reliever.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
How about Nick Barnese and Cruz
Makes sense for both teams.
Jedi mind tricks by AF is the only way it's happening
Guys like Yonder would have to be part of a multi player deal that includes a Garza type.
Reds are a win now team and Yonder is their biggest trade piece, they don’t want two AA SP’s
Price, Garza, Shields, Davis, Hellickson is too awesome, Niemann for closer?
The big problem is the Reds don't really need more pitching right now.
I can’t believe they paid as much as they did for Arroyo, but they did. It boggles my mind.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 22, 2010 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, looking at the deal, it's not as bad as I thought at first glance.
I didn’t realize so much of it was deferred. Still not ideal, but not that deplorable.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 22, 2010 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
When and if Votto is extended
Votto would be a nice acquisition but won’t be moved until Votto signs a long term extension with the Reds(debatable at this point)
What do you guys see happening at first base?
I don’t like the idea of Zobrist there most days. I don’t like the lack of power from Anderson. Lee is out of our price range. I would like to find a young stick who defends and could be a core player.
Did you forget about Dan Johnson?
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Love Dan, but does he have the glove?
He would make a nice DH with Thames.
Do you want Dan everyday at first? What do you do at DH? Manny?
It's 1B he'll be fine
I’d prefer to find a righty that can play there as well to complete the platoon. Manny would be great.
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 22, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
Right now the other half is Zobrist
I’m sure im in the minority but If Manny isn’t in the cards why not invite Sheffield to spring training for a look with the goal being the righty DH. He is as good as Thames and will be dirt cheap.
1B Dan Johnson is fine
3B well that’s another story.
I want Manny
He would add some juice to what looks to be a flat lineup. I love that he sees so many pitches and gets on base -career .411 OBP.
Pun intended?
Founding member of the Leslie Anderson fan club. This support has little merit, but if he's ever any good then I called it.
by staplemaniac on Dec 22, 2010 5:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Signing Manny on the cheap is just asking for trouble
Somehow I just don’t see Manny as the type of guy who will play for say 5 million just for the love of the game. First sign of trouble Manny will just fake an injury and quit. Sign Thome..
The racial undertones in this comment are pretty fantastic. Bravo sir.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 22, 2010 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
This is what it looked like when Manny "quit" on Boston:
(The two weeks prior to being traded in 2008)
.351/.467/.622
Manny “faked” an injury so well this season he even underwent fake surgery and got a fake doctor to comment on his fake injury. Yet, somehow, still managed a combined line of .298/.409/.460. If you think Manny quits and fakes injuries yet can still hit like that, then you must also think he’s the greatest player to ever walk the planet.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 22, 2010 8:26 PM EST up reply actions
Haha, well done.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 22, 2010 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
I will take 2 Manny's
Delcarman is still sitting there on the free agent market. Him and Buccholz seem to never be mentioned but I think they both have great arms.
Price, Garza, Shields, Davis, Hellickson is too awesome, Niemann for closer?
Just realized that Manny Corpas is a FA also
His control issues would drive us insane though.
Price, Garza, Shields, Davis, Hellickson is too awesome, Niemann for closer?
I'm in on Dotel
He would be a solid pickup as a late inning swing man.
Dotel is awful vs left handed batters
as was noted earlier.
I don't know if awful is the right word.
But they certainly aren’t great. He still has the stuff to strike out righties and non-elite lefties.
Takashi Saito is still available
I haven’t heard much talk about him this offseason. Has some closing experience. Can’t be too expensive. Not thrilled with the splits vs lefthanded batters but he isn’t horrble.
We still need an impact bat but
With starting pitchers being by far our strongest area, we need to back it up with great D which we do every where except 1B with Los gone so what does everyone think of a cheap, defensive master like Kotchman for 1B? Johnson has random power and a better eye than Los but the AVG might not be much better, I say we sign Manny or Thome for DH and Kotchman for 1B. Pena had many hiccups last season and we never did well when we needed 4 outs and now we have downgraded from even Pena.
Kotchman and Rauch shouldn’t cost that much, add on a Manny type and I really think we will have a nice season.
Price, Garza, Shields, Davis, Hellickson is too awesome, Niemann for closer?
Pass on Kotchman
I don’t see how we have enough sticks to support a non hitter at first base. Derek Lee would be sweet but it looks like friggin Baldy-moore is ruining it for us.
We don't have many options
We aren’t gonna pay LaRaroche or Lee. No one else is exactly a great hitter. Maybe we can trade for Butler, I don’t know
Price, Garza, Shields, Davis, Hellickson is too awesome, Niemann for closer?
I'd rather get AIDS than get Kotchman
Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 23, 2010 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
1B defense will not sink us next season, not any worse than losing the hitting ability of johnson vs. kotchman.
no no no.
Wack emcees make me laugh like my ticklish spot.
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