Marcum sets Garza market

by thewb on Dec 6, 2010 5:59 PM EST

The recent Shaun Marcum deal seems to set the market for a potential Matt Garza deal this off season. The similarities between Marcum (age 28) and Garza (age 26) are striking.

Marcum found himself on a Blue Jays team with signficant rotation depth. Coming off a very solid season (3.64 era / 3.74 fip) with 2 cost control years remaining, the Jays decided to cash their chips in on Marcum. They were able to net a top 50 prospect bat in return for 2 years of Marcum. For his career which included a TJ hiatus, Marcum has posted a 3.85 era / 4.46 fip.

As we all know, Garza is a solid pitcher in a crowded rotation. With his looming Arb2 status, Garza has the least team-friendly contract status of the six Rays vying for a rotation slot. Garza is coming off a 3.91 era / 4.42 fip season and has posted a 3.97 era and 4.26 fip for his career.

In Lawrie, the Jays land a high upside bat with a questions about his future position. Lawrie hit .285/.346/.451 with 30 steals, 16 triples in Double-A. He ranked as the 14th best bat on Sickels 2010 Top 50 Hitting Prospects. Given his performance and the graduations of others, he could find himself in Sickels Top 10 list in 2011. Lawrie's bat could have played well at 2b or corner OF for the Rays, but that ship has sailed.

A couple of teams that could still have interest in Garza that have a top50ish Hitting Prospect to offer:

Washington's Werth signing created a tidal wave ... and from the looks of things they are not finished. They are rumored to have interest in adding a front end starter & are looking at Pavano. Have also seen rumors linking them to Lee, but that seems even more unlikely know after Werth's contract. If the Nats fail to sign Pavano, could they turn their attention to Garza dangling C Derek Norris? Hit .235/.419/.419 in High-A Carolina League. He did very well in the AFL, though those stats don't mean much at all. He brings a nice power/patience bat from the C position, a place the Rays could definitely use a long-term upgrade.

Oakland's loss could be the Rays gain. The A's traded Vin Mazarro when they won the bid post for Iwakuma, thinking they had plucked their 5th starter from Japan. His Zito-esque contract request will likely leave the A's hoping Josh Outman (coming off lost year to TJ) can return to form and claim their 5th starter. The A's have a very nice rotation headed by Brett Anderson, but should expect some regression this year from Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Dallas Braden. Could Chris Carter be in play for Garza? I think this would have made more sense a week ago before the A's DFA'd Jack Cust and Edwin Encarnacion ... but you never know. Carter has hit on virtually every level (except in a brief, horrid MLB appearance last year). He hit 258/.365/.529 with 31 homers in Triple-A.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Comments

The A's would be more likely to want Wade Davis

Although with a smart GM like Beane, I suspect that Davis and Garza would actually net similar returns.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 6, 2010 7:30 PM EST reply actions

I'd think Garza would command a bit more than Marcum.

He’s younger, throws harder, and pitched roughly 600 innings over the past three seasons.

by tallyray on Dec 6, 2010 10:15 PM EST reply actions

Brewers of interest

If the Brewers are interested in adding another SP to the top of their rotation, some of their higher end young guys that could be of interest to the Rays include:

3B Matt Gamel, age 25
RHP Mark Rogers, age 25
RHP Jeremy Jeffress, age 23
OF Kentrail Davis, age 22

None of these guys are in the Lawrie class … all have upside but question marks.

by thewb on Dec 7, 2010 5:53 PM EST reply actions

I'd rather have Lucroy/Gamel

Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 8, 2010 9:27 AM EST up reply actions

I've read reports about Lucroy's power being suspect.

You’d looking to net both?

by firemangreg on Dec 8, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

Yes and Lucroy is a catch

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 8, 2010 4:49 PM EST up reply actions

Why are you so high on him? I haven't drudged up too much info but what I have seen isn't necessarily glowing.

I’m sure you have a lot more info on him than I do though, I only found a few reports and glanced over his numbers.

by firemangreg on Dec 9, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

He's hit better than league average everywhere he's been and threw out over 30%(17/54) of runners in his short stint last year

He doesn’t strike out a ton, but doesn’t walk a whole lot either, could benefit from a hitting coach with a more patient philosophy. So you’re getting a guy that’s probably above-average defensively at backstop that will hit eventually even if it’s not crazy power. Him and Jaso for the next 5-6 years? Yes please.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 9, 2010 2:48 PM EST up reply actions

Do you view that as his floor, ceiling, or somewhere in the middle?

If there a good chance he can be that and if Gamel can stick at another position (he’s played a few games at COF and 1B) it sounds like a good return.

by firemangreg on Dec 9, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions

He caught 75 games last year and didn't hit great, but it's his first exposure

I’d probably take those two in a heartbeat, but ask for a MLB ready reliever. Garza brings a lot to the table for them for the next 3 years. His ceiling is a .375 wOBA with solid defense behind the plate. His floor is .300 wOBA with average defense at catcher. Pairing him with Jaso would be a really good idea as he seems to struggle a bit more with righties than lefties. Throw in Gamel and a Mike McClendon type and I’d absolutely do that deal.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 9, 2010 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

Would be buying low on Lucroy and Gamel

Want to see how this would match up against what we could fetch from Cubs … but these are two solid cost controlled guys with upside.

by thewb on Dec 9, 2010 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

The more I look into McClendon the more I like him. Played HS in Orlando, went to Seminole CC

FB/SL that dominates righties (S^3). They may try to sell high on a decent year last season at 25, but could be willing to sell low on Gamel after being sick of developing him (though post-Fielder reality probably makes them want to hang on another year). Hopefully Frieds is using the Cubs as leverage to get these 3 from Brewers who could use the arm probably more.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 9, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

.

McClendon
Lucroy
Gamel

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 9, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

video of McClendon including striking out Adrian Gonzo and a sick catch, GD I miss live baseball

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=11239935

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 9, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions

He's got a fun near quick pitch

He comes set but uses a shorter delivery. Braun had 3 or 4 catches like that last year. Brandon Kintzler is another good, young, sort of out of nowhere guy.

by Salty on Dec 9, 2010 10:49 PM EST up reply actions

Do you know anything about Gamel's flexability?

I’d say 3B is set for a few years.

by firemangreg on Dec 8, 2010 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

I’d want both. If Marcum nets Lawrie … Lawrie > Gamel.

Try Gamel at 1b? Seems to have a bat that can play anywhere. I believe he’s gotten some work in the OF as well. Don’t think he would do this next year, but believe in a year or two could be a 360 wOBA bat.

I’d probably rather have Gamel + one of Rogers/Jeffress/Odorizzi. Rogers/Jeffress are close to ML ready. Odorizzi was at LowA last year.

by thewb on Dec 8, 2010 4:05 PM EST reply actions

Do you think that’s enough?

by Salty on Dec 8, 2010 10:49 PM EST up reply actions

not unless we are really high on Gamel.

by thewb on Dec 9, 2010 12:28 PM EST reply actions

Thoughts on a possible Cubs package ....

Levine rumored earlier today the Cubs & Rays could be talking Garza for Cubs top catching prospect Robinson Chirinos, and one of their top shortstop prospects along with two other top prospects in the Cubs organization.

I’d assume the SS prospect is Hak-Ju Lee. Did not set the world on fire at A ball last year and he seems to be more reputation than production at this point in his career.

Sickels has this to say about Chirinos and Lee:

- Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Grade B: I don’t know why, but I think his bat can develop more than people expect.

- Robinson Chirinos, C, Grade C+: Like Marquez Smith, not young but can help soon.

Would hope that one of the other ‘two top prospects’ is the headliner and not Lee.

I think the consensus on the Cubs system is that Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, and Chris Archer are their top 3 prospects. Levine says he believes Brett Jackson and Chris Archer are untouchable.

Brett Jackson would be a really nice centerpiece … but if he is on the table, do you look at McNutt and one other piece?

Possibly something like this:

P McNutt + SS Lee + C Chirinos + OF Guyer

Other players of interest could include:

P – A Cashner, C Carpenter, J Jackson
OF – Golden
3B – Vitters

by thewb on Dec 9, 2010 2:20 PM EST reply actions

Thanks for gathering this info into one post.

I personally would like B. Jackson/Carpenter/Golden plus one.

by firemangreg on Dec 9, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions

If you could get B Jackson plus ...

I’d be pretty happy.

Garza > Marcum, if for nothing else due to age and one more controllable year.

If Marcum = Lawrie.

Lawrie > or = B Jackson … Personally, I like Lawrie more than Jackson b/c think bat can be special … but if Lawrie has to move to corner OF and you factor in defense Jackson probably makes things closer.

Would love to get B Jackson + if could make that happen.

by thewb on Dec 9, 2010 2:40 PM EST up reply actions

I'm glad you understood what I meant since I didn't type it right at all.

B. Jackson plus one of Carpenter/Golden

by firemangreg on Dec 9, 2010 3:14 PM EST up reply actions

Thankfully Friedman is not as dumb as Cubs fans

BleedCubbieBlue blog thinking this would get Garza:

C Chirinos and a SS, maybe Barney or Lake and maybe an arm like Dolis.

Sickels on these guys:

Robinson Chirinos, C, Grade C+: Like Marquez Smith, not young but can help soon.
Rafael Dolis, RHP, Grade C+: Another guy in the live arm/needs polish brigade.

Barney & Lake are presumably Grade C guys at best not inside the Cubs top 22 prospects (in Sickels world).

by thewb on Dec 9, 2010 2:35 PM EST reply actions

Could Yankees be in the Garza mix?

This is straight up hypothetical … not a rumor.

Could the perfect storm of Cliff Lee signing with the Rangers and Pettitte decides to retire cause the Yankees to get desperate enough to overpay to solidify their rotation?

If the aforementioned happened, that would leave the Yankees rotation looking like this:
1. Sabathia
2. Hughes
3. Burnett
4. Nova
5. Mitre

Questionmarks would abound in that rotation … increased workload with Hughes, crappy season with Burnett … and well, Nova and Mitre.

Could that lead the Yankees to make an offer for 3 years of Garza who has been a solid regular and postseason performer?

I think this would be an overpay by the Yankees, but I’d be asking for Jesus Montero in return for Garza.

The Yankees could have interest in Greinke, but Garza might be a lower risk option due to Greinke’s social anxiety disorder.

Thoughts?

by thewb on Dec 10, 2010 11:43 AM EST reply actions

.

http://www.draysbay.com/2010/11/3/1791271/ottotd-11-3-10-where-john-wall-teaches-us-how-to-dougie#51052520

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 10, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions

Also meant to mention

I think the Yankees would look first to FA in this scenario, but not seeing much beyond Pavano on the market … and not wanting to repeat that mistake they will look to the trade market.

by thewb on Dec 10, 2010 11:48 AM EST reply actions