FanPost

Marcum sets Garza market

The recent Shaun Marcum deal seems to set the market for a potential Matt Garza deal this off season. The similarities between Marcum (age 28) and Garza (age 26) are striking.

Marcum found himself on a Blue Jays team with signficant rotation depth. Coming off a very solid season (3.64 era / 3.74 fip) with 2 cost control years remaining, the Jays decided to cash their chips in on Marcum. They were able to net a top 50 prospect bat in return for 2 years of Marcum. For his career which included a TJ hiatus, Marcum has posted a 3.85 era / 4.46 fip.

As we all know, Garza is a solid pitcher in a crowded rotation. With his looming Arb2 status, Garza has the least team-friendly contract status of the six Rays vying for a rotation slot. Garza is coming off a 3.91 era / 4.42 fip season and has posted a 3.97 era and 4.26 fip for his career.

In Lawrie, the Jays land a high upside bat with a questions about his future position. Lawrie hit .285/.346/.451 with 30 steals, 16 triples in Double-A. He ranked as the 14th best bat on Sickels 2010 Top 50 Hitting Prospects. Given his performance and the graduations of others, he could find himself in Sickels Top 10 list in 2011. Lawrie's bat could have played well at 2b or corner OF for the Rays, but that ship has sailed.

A couple of teams that could still have interest in Garza that have a top50ish Hitting Prospect to offer:

Washington's Werth signing created a tidal wave ... and from the looks of things they are not finished. They are rumored to have interest in adding a front end starter & are looking at Pavano. Have also seen rumors linking them to Lee, but that seems even more unlikely know after Werth's contract. If the Nats fail to sign Pavano, could they turn their attention to Garza dangling C Derek Norris? Hit .235/.419/.419 in High-A Carolina League. He did very well in the AFL, though those stats don't mean much at all. He brings a nice power/patience bat from the C position, a place the Rays could definitely use a long-term upgrade.

Oakland's loss could be the Rays gain. The A's traded Vin Mazarro when they won the bid post for Iwakuma, thinking they had plucked their 5th starter from Japan. His Zito-esque contract request will likely leave the A's hoping Josh Outman (coming off lost year to TJ) can return to form and claim their 5th starter. The A's have a very nice rotation headed by Brett Anderson, but should expect some regression this year from Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Dallas Braden. Could Chris Carter be in play for Garza? I think this would have made more sense a week ago before the A's DFA'd Jack Cust and Edwin Encarnacion ... but you never know. Carter has hit on virtually every level (except in a brief, horrid MLB appearance last year). He hit 258/.365/.529 with 31 homers in Triple-A.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.