AL East Starters According to SIERA

So I caved and dove into the Google Calculator created by B Ray to see how the new Baseball Prospectus DIPS tool SIERA gauged the AL East starting pitchers based on 2009 data. SIERA is being billed as the most accurate metric ever in terms of predictive value. For comparison's sake we will look at xFIP and see who SIERA favors the most, and who was possibly the most overrated pitcher. For a quick explanation of SIERA please click on B Ray's link.

Without further ado:


SIERA xFIP Difference
Matt Garza 3.81 4.21 -0.40
Tim Wakefield 5.12 5.50 -0.38
AJ Burnett 4.04 4.29 -0.25
Javier Vasquez 2.68 2.82 -0.14
Joba Chamberlain 4.45 4.56 -0.11
David Price 4.39 4.49 -0.10
CC Sabathia 3.72 3.82 -0.10
Jeff Niemann 4.47 4.53 -0.06
John Lackey 3.93 3.92 0.01
Josh Beckett 3.37 3.35 0.02
Andy Pettitte 4.40 4.38 0.02
Andy Sonnanstine 4.90 4.85 0.05
James Shields 3.98 3.92 0.06
Jon Lester 3.19 3.13 0.06
Clay Buchholz 4.19 4.09 0.10
 Dice-K and Wade Davis not included due to <15 starts

-Matt Garza is smelling like roses.

-4 of the top 7 are Yankees.

-All metrics agree, Jeff Niemann had a very fortunate 2009 campaign.

-Don't panic at Javier Vasquez's numbers. He will have a healthy league and division adjustment.

-Lester and Beckett are really good.

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