Something to Keep in Mind Regarding B.J. Upton's Arbitration Hearing

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 11, 2010 11:43 AM EST

The Rays win no matter which was this thing goes.

Upton has been worth 3.9, 4.8, and 2.5 wins over the last three years. His free agent market value is something like $12M in a down market. Yeah, he has a .735 OPS over the last two seasons, but he's an elite defensive centerfielder. Those guys don't have to have .900 OPS to be stars, they just don't. Upton's career OPS through his 24-year-old season is .765. Here's some perspective on how other recent centerfield stars have managed through that age:

Johnny Damon: .735 (2,006 PA)

Andruw Jones: .824 (3,312 PA)

Carlos Beltran: .796 (1,879 PA)

Bernie Williams: .726 (1,295 PA)

Torii Hunter: .704 (799 PA)

Ken Griffey Jr.: .920 (3,606 PA)

Guys like Jim Edmonds and Mike Cameron weren't even full-time players by the age of 24 and they're amongst the top five defensive centerfielders of the last decade, if not the top two. Obviously a defensive heavy centerfielder isn't what people dreamed for five (or even two) years ago, but players change positions and potential isn't static.

For those wondering if Upton will pout and punt the season, don't forget that after his ridiculous 2007 season the Rays actually reduced his salary. He responded by posting the best WAR of his career while playing with a torn labrum. I think he can deal with making a third of his market value instead of a little over a third.

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"For those wondering if Upton will pout and punt the season"

Who would wonder that?

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Feb 11, 2010 12:41 PM EST reply actions

?

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 11, 2010 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

Are you trying to imply that there might be something wrong with the beautiful people of St. Petersburg?

by Suttree on Feb 11, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions

I completely believe how serious her claim is. Just look at her expression.

Real trauma there.

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Feb 11, 2010 1:28 PM EST up reply actions

Isn't that the chick that Stevie Phillips got caught rolling in dough?

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 11, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

Hmm.

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Feb 11, 2010 1:32 PM EST up reply actions

I almost just spit my dip all over the keyboard

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 11, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

It's disgusting yet sort of endearing that this funcle is so excited to be there for his sophew.

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Feb 11, 2010 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

Wouldn't that be bruncle?

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 11, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, oops. Bruncle, brophew.

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Feb 11, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions

Brother, Father, Uncle

Brathle.

Wait a second…

by TheRevTy on Feb 11, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

Suttree had a baby

by BJ the Bossman on Feb 11, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions

Good to see you chappy

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 11, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions

Is that why you're fleeing the country to Jamaica?

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Feb 11, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

Speaking of Upton:

From http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/content/longoria-upton-different-jerseys

First, one of us:

Upton doesnt look like he’s hustling while watching the game. So lazy………

Then, one of ‘them’:

The headline had me goin’ for a minute!
Longo in a different uniform? Madness!
Upton in a different one? Pure joy!

I miss George Steinbrenner. He was the man responsible for keeping the Yankees competitive.

by kericr on Feb 11, 2010 3:38 PM EST reply actions

I bet the fans around them were not ready to see a black man dipping at a hockey game

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 11, 2010 3:46 PM EST up reply actions

So many questions.

Why is Evan so angry?
Who is B.J. chatting it up with?
Is B.J. targeting the white girl in front of Evan?
Why are they with the common folk?

by SRQman on Feb 11, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

Who is B.J. chatting it up with?

Kazmir.
He is asking if Beej is going to get any cotton candy.

by ronnydobbs on Feb 11, 2010 7:47 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not surprised.

by FloridaownsFSU on Feb 11, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions

To be honest I think we need to adjust our outlook here

Teams are always going to come out ahead in terms of what a young player is compensated versus an older player with equal production. So in that sense the Rays, and every other team, are going to ‘win’. But that only tells part of the story.

I think we need to put greater focus on whether the Rays (or any other team) come out ahead with players of equal service time and similar abilities. Are the Rays (or another team) paying more or less money for BJ (or any other player) than another team is paying for an equal player with equal service?

The question on whether a team is over or underpaying for a player relative to his free agent value is certainly important. However I do think a bit more of focus on whether a team is over or under paying for BJ Upton himself. I’m a huge BJ supporter and if he was a FA I’d gladly pay more than the $12m you mentioned. However that is in a hypothetical world. What is his market value given his service time?

Can we get robots for umpires and a computer to make in game strategy decisions? I'm sick of inconsistently bad umpiring and Joe's pitiful in game management. Oh and Navi (and BJ) need some PED's. BenZo, Bartlett, and Pena do not.

by matthan on Feb 12, 2010 12:25 PM EST reply actions

I, too, am a huge BJ supporter

To answer your last question, would you be satisfied by the 40/60/80 model that so often gets brought up? I’ve never done a proof on it, but it seems like smart people reference it with a lot of confidence. Comparing with similar players gets murky due to inflation and the constantly changing value of a dollar from year-to-year. Some comparables that might be worth looking into, off the top of my head, would be V. Wells, S. Victorino, T. Hunter, D. White, K. Lofton, J. Edmonds, actually here’s a list of guys in their first 5 seasons that played at least 75% of their games in CF, sorted by OPS+, filtered by greater than 90:

HERE

It might be worth looking into what guys with similar starts to their careers look like and this would probably be a good jumping off point. Wow I guess I forgot that Berkman played CF for most of a year. That must have been a fun sight.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 12, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions