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Mozart, Shostakovich, and Baseball: Why I Love Stats

A little over a week ago, I went back to my alma mater with my fiancé to see one of our friends perform in their senior recital.  He plays the oboe and, if I may be so bold as to say so, a beautiful oboe at that.  The oboe can be a frustrating, difficult instrument (from what I’ve heard and observed, at least), but when played with skill…by god, it’s unparalleled.  This performance was very enjoyable and well worth the visit, but that’s not the reason why I’m writing this piece.  I’m writing this story because about a third of the way through the recital, I found myself thinking about baseball.

Before I insult the performer, though, let me clarify: it was not that I got bored and found myself day-dreaming about baseball.  Quite the opposite, in fact; I was enraptured by the performance and found myself trying to fully appreciate the talent I was watching.  Now, to understand my predicament, you need to know a bit of background on me.  I used to play the clarinet and saxophone, but it’s been three years since I picked up either of them.  I used to think I’d study music in college, but then I took one day of one course and decided against that.  I love music and it’s something I always thought I’d know more about than I do today, but the truth is I’m a casual music fan.  I say things like, "Wow, that was a fun piece" and, "Man, that was a tough run right there", but the depth of my knowledge stops about there.  I know what I like, but I can’t always give you a great explanation as to why.

Hearing that performance, though, I wished I’d spent more time playing and studying music so that I could more fully appreciate what I was witnessing.  I knew the performance was damn good – I loved the pieces and from my past experience, could tell that I was witnessing something special – but I felt at a loss to appreciate the depth of the talent I was hearing.  For comparison, my fiancé was sitting next to me and not only was she a music major in college, but she’d performed in her own recital just a year ago.  She’s a skilled performer and has studied music for years, giving her a lens through which to analyze and appreciate what we were hearing.  I’m sure that she knew what the different styles of each piece and time period were, which sections were especially difficult, and how the performance measured against others that she’d heard.  She could find themes in the music and understand why they were repeating, while I would sit there and think, "Hmm, that sounds vaguely familiar."

When I realized this partway through the recital, I became pretty disappointed.  Here I was, witnessing beautiful art being performed, and I couldn’t even really appreciate it.  It felt like such a waste, and not of my time, but of the talent.  And it was at this moment during the recital that I thought, "My gosh, I love baseball stats."

I know there are people out there that deride sabremetricians, telling us to get our noses out of our Excel documents and watch a game – the whole "baseball-isn’t-played-on-a-spreadsheet" argument.  Those people, though, are completely missing the point.  The people that read FanGraphs and write for Beyond the Boxscore aren’t doing it because they love numbers and statistics; they’re doing it because they love baseball.  The statistics are just a way to help understand the game and to appreciate it at a level beyond, "Wow, that Longoria is pretty darn good."  Well, how good?  What makes him good?  You can enjoy a game and get a lot out of watching it, but some of us want/need more than that.  Personally, advanced statistics allow me to appreciate and love the game at a much deeper level than I would be able to otherwise...and I find that pretty darn cool.

Through the rest of the recital, I leaned back and simply let myself appreciate those things that I could.  I let myself get swept up into the beauty of the music, the strength and emotion that flowed into the long, drawn-out notes and passages.  I’m sure that I didn’t appreciate the talent on the same level as my fiancé, but I realized that it was okay; I enjoyed the performance and had a fun time myself, and there’s nothing wrong with that.  What would have been wrong is if I claimed afterward to possess the only correct interpretation of the performance and ignored everything my fiancé said.  I enjoyed the performance, but I wouldn't kid myself and claim that I was able to analyze it. 

So to those out there that refuse to use advanced statistics and dread the word "Moneyball", I respect your decision and that’s fine; understand, though, that sabremetricians are baseball fans too and we’re using stats to increase our appreciation of a game we all love.  Is there something wrong with that?  Not all of us were ballplayers at a competitive level and this is the only way we have of gaining a deeper appreciation.  I don't think you'd begrudge an educated, scholarly art critic their opinions on Picasso, so why should you begrudge me mine on BJ Upton?

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Great piece, Steve!

I think you’ve said it just right!

on Twitter @BradleyWoodrum and @CubsStats23

by BWoodrum on Feb 14, 2010 9:48 AM EST reply actions  

Concur...

Just in the love of stats don’t leave that emotional element behind. :)

"...also I'll brush my teeth and remember to turn off the stars at night and put the hyena out." ERNEST HEMINGWAY

by pslieber on Feb 14, 2010 10:16 AM EST reply actions  

I think the emotion is inseperable from it

People don’t go into baseball stats because they’re emotionless husks that just love numbers. If anything, stats increases the emotions that I feel for baseball.

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Feb 14, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions  

But yeah, I think too many people don't get that point

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Feb 14, 2010 11:43 AM EST up reply actions  

Steve, you are so off base with your conclusions. I am a daily reader of this site and consider myself a person who understands baseball pretty well. That is not to say that I understand some or many of the new statistical terms that you and others use. I have read over the definitions of these stats on several occasions but they just don’t stick in the mind like the commonly used ones do.

Why can’t you guys take upon yourselves to use a player or two and explain a single statistic every day until you have completely exhausted your cache of terms? I have been waiting for a couple of years to get such insights and I have figured that you must have done this a dozen times in the past and are just tired of trying to bring along the casual fan.

Why can’t you have the term used highlighted and clickable so that anyone who wants to understand it better can read about it in a quick and easy context?

Why can’t you inform us of the meaning of a number in terms of a range of typical values and what is better, a higher or lower value?

There is much that you could do to bring along the “average fan” if that is really your goal with this site. Until then, I do look upon you all as trying to hold something over on the average fan. Therefore I am going to give you a 7.875 xHTT score. What does that mean you say? Why that’s your hat size for your inflated head and the HTT stands for Holyer Than Thou and the x is for your home field advantage.

by Rayon on Feb 14, 2010 10:20 AM EST reply actions  

We have two stat guides

You have Google, you have the comment section to ask “What does this mean?” or, “Is a .330 wOBA good?” and you have our emails at the bottom of the page, which most of us reply to within a day or two at the latest. Why haven’t you used the available tools as your disposal?

Your last paragraph simply isn’t worth a response.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 14, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions  

I going to agree with RJ...it's easy to learn about the material if you put even a smidge of effort into it

I started reading this site two years ago with no knowledge at all of sabremetrics, but I’d now consider myself well versed in most subjects. Literally, it just takes a google search, reading the stat guides, or asking some questions. We’re not here to confuse.

The point of the post was merely to point out that there are multiple ways of enjoying a game. If you don’t get something from the new stats, that’s fine. You’re free to enjoy the game your own way, but don’t begrudge those who do enjoy stats and realize that we get something useful from them, if nothing else than an increased personal appreciation of the game.

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Feb 14, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions  

May I suggest:

www.google.com.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 14, 2010 1:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I have learned something in life: You learn most from your critics. You, RJ, haven’t learned that yet.

by Rayon on Feb 14, 2010 11:26 AM EST reply actions  

All RJ did was educate you as to the workings of our site. Your unwillingness to take a few minutes and look for a stats guide is your own fault, not his.

by Erik Hahmann on Feb 14, 2010 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Steve and Erik, you need to read what I said. I seek to learn more and have suggested easy ways for me to digest the new stats when they are presented in the context of the articles posted. A simple clickable stat would enable a somewhat more casual fan than yourselves to accumulate an understanding. It’s about ease-of-use and a desire to bring along others.

You can do much more to acheive these goals assuming that educating readers about sabremetrics is your goal.

So, is educating readers or DRaysBay.com a goal or not? If you answer yes, then you can do a better job of it.

by Rayon on Feb 14, 2010 12:15 PM EST reply actions  

Founded in 2005. DRaysBay is home to "Progressive statistical analysis and reasoned argument."

http://www.draysbay.com/2010/1/28/1274374/the-draysbay-stats-guide-2-0

“I have learned something in life: You learn most from your critics. You, RJ, haven’t learned that yet.”
Remind me how this isn’t “Holier than thou?” You need to read the guide and use your own brain to make a reasoned argument. R.J., Erik and Tommy aren’t here to curtail their writing ability to every individual’s request. The responsibility of understanding what you read on this site is primarily yours; they’re not here to spoon-feed you.

Having said that, if you need to ask a question, R.J., Tommy and Erik are ALL willing to answer. Do you not know how to use a forum? For your own sake, read the stat-guide, enlighten yourself and for god’s sake use the reply feature.

Sign lady must die.

by EminenceFront on Feb 14, 2010 12:46 PM EST up reply actions  

In defense of Rayon...

I too consider myself a fairly knowledgeable baseball fan, and offered a similar constructive criticism a few weeks back of spelling out acronyms, offering clickable links to terms upon first use. The end conclusion – by site admins – was to ensure these links appeared on the homepage more prominently, in isolation, on the menubar. I left it at that.

Now, I don’t begrudge the statistical emphasis to the nth degree…even more so since this isn’t my site (I’m simply a beneficiary of other’s hard work)…plus it does – as Eminence pointed out – state this goal in site description.

Rayon, however, raises a valuable question in who is the intended audience for this site. It appears the casual Rays supporter disinterested in Sabermetrics is not this individual. This is a very different approach than almost every other SBNation site, especially baseball ones.

Having read this site for some time now, it seems it supports a tight, very small core community (10-15) interested in Sabermetrics. While this keeps statistics discussions at unprecedented levels, it keeps membership growth low, ‘fan’ threads limited. For a smaller market team, not necessarily the best thing.

The instruction manual for posters would scare most – if not flat out offend – Rays fans who want to discuss their team sans advanced stats. I’ve seen casual posters flamed off this board, personally insulted, and vilified for seeming ignorance…via elitist flair. A fellow Rays fan of mine confessed he won’t ever post for these very same reasons. And he’s one helluva’, smart fan who respects this site and the admins.

Again, I default back to my earlier paragraph on this not being my site…and I’m rewarded by the individuals who put effort it. I can also suck it up and go elsewhere if I’d like. But I choose to come back since the content is rich, stories well researched.

Still, Rayon raises solid suggestions that can improve the site, grow it’s numbers.

“You can do much more to acheive these goals assuming that educating readers about sabremetrics is your goal.” vs.
“Do you not know how to use a forum? For your own sake, read the stat-guide, enlighten yourself and for god’s sake use the reply feature.”

Just one man’s observations. And please don’t flame me. I want to enjoy my holiday weekend.

"...also I'll brush my teeth and remember to turn off the stars at night and put the hyena out." ERNEST HEMINGWAY

by pslieber on Feb 14, 2010 1:06 PM EST up reply actions  

It's not my site either, so I'll avoid making statements for Tommy.

But we have put more emphasis on being “inviting” to people who don’t know what the hell wOBA is. Hence the fantasy threads, hence the suggestion threads, and so on. We’ve also encouraged readers to post the off-topic threads which are a fine jump-in for lurkers.

Regarding the site’s growth, we rank 19th in traffic amongst baseball sites right now, and 12th when that traffic is adjusted for team value (by way of Forbes’ value) which is tops in the ALE. This speaks for itself as well: http://www.sitemeter.com/?a=stats&s=s13draysbay&r=36 Our member join/posting rate was also improving although I have no data to offer outside of the comments the SBN folk passed along.

We’re open to anything within reason. The frustrating aspect is that nobody offered these sentiments in the open thread.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 14, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Amen, RJ.

“We’re open to anything within reason. The frustrating aspect is that nobody offered these sentiments in the open thread.”

I think this is what Rayon is getting at.

“God knows there are enough other outlets that water down their approach so that their audiences’ preconceptions are catered to instead of challenged.”

This, I’m guessing, was not his/her point.

Well, at minimum, hopefully Rayon’s comments generated some good discussion fodder. Good to hear the site is doing well, visit-wise. Always good to be proven wrong on something like this!

"...also I'll brush my teeth and remember to turn off the stars at night and put the hyena out." ERNEST HEMINGWAY

by pslieber on Feb 14, 2010 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Why should a blog have to have a purpose that you dictate?

There are a million and one reasons to create a website. Appealing to fans who are already somewhat conversant with baseball stats is a perfectly legitimate one. God knows there are enough other outlets that water down their approach so that their audiences’ preconceptions are catered to instead of challenged.

by Zach Attack on Feb 14, 2010 1:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Let me say this another way:

I really enjoy DRaysBay.
I read it every day.
I am a very busy person whose time is very valuable.
I want to learn more.
I don’t understand everything as posted and would like to assimilate more.
I have read the helpful references provided but I don’t retain it all.
I am a very capable learner.

I am just asking for quicker and easier means of referencing those terms that are still new to most readers.
I will eventually get it and won’t have to use the help.

I know that I am not alone
I feel that the site would be greatly improved for the more casual reader if you engaged them in a process of learning about exactly what it is your talking about. Then you might have a couple hundred people that understand what you are talking about.

Why must you get so accusatory and defensive? My apologies if the humor of my xHTT stat upset you guys in the “inner circle” and don’t understand why you would vilify me for asking for help.

by Rayon on Feb 14, 2010 3:52 PM EST reply actions  

"I am a very busy person whose time is very valuable."

This needs to go into the 2000s time capsule for “Most Transparent Claim In Argument On the Internet”.

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Feb 14, 2010 4:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I never comment on anything

But I have read this site and many others for the last three years and have picked up on a lot of sabermetric info. I obviously don’t know everything, but I do feel more enlightened from knowing this stuff. Yeah it takes time to learn, but if you feel it’s an interesting thing, the time should just fly by.

by BrendanHarrisLives on Feb 14, 2010 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I have three full-time writing gigs and this is the one that doesn't pay.

I’ve done this for 30-something months without making a dollar off t-shirt sales, annuals, ads, or just network revenue. I do it because I’m a Rays fan and want to share insight with others like me. With such, I’m more than willing to help people understand things as long as you don’t have a ridiculous tone or level of expectation. Unfortunately, your points — some of which are valid and worth incorporating — are coming off extremely poorly.

I’m sure your time is far more valuable than mine, but I’m not asking you for anything but courtesy.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 14, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions  

None of this is preventing you from asking questions.

“if you engaged them in a process of learning about exactly what it is your talking about. Then you might have a couple hundred people that understand what you are talking about.”

This is what the comment is section is for. If you don’t understand something at all, ask. It’s not that hard. There is no reason you can’t read the story and if something flies over your head you can’t post a quick “Hey can somebody explain to me the logic behind wOBA?”

“I am just asking for quicker and easier means of referencing those terms that are still new to most readers.”

Ask.

Sign lady must die.

by EminenceFront on Feb 14, 2010 4:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Rayon, I read this site and the comments like 5000 times a day

and if you read this site every day as well, then you probably know what the “reply” button is. Someone else asked you to use it. If you want people to believe that you want to be taken seriously, then please use the subject line and reply buttons. It makes it easier for everyone to know what conversation you’re talking about.

by staplemaniac on Feb 14, 2010 11:39 PM EST up reply actions  

OK

Thank you for bringing this to my attention. I am a reader, not a poster and did not realize the proper method of responding to a specific post.

by Rayon on Feb 15, 2010 11:50 AM EST up reply actions  

Haha...no worries.

Definitely not what I was expecting, but it seems like we’ve got some productive stuff out of it anyway. If this all ends up with some good education info added to the site, that’ll be pretty sweet.

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Feb 14, 2010 7:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Hear, Hear Steve. :)

The power of an oboe reference at work. (Guys, don’t kill slay Rayon for method of delivery.) :)

Great CC training piece on Baseball Tonight, by the way…

"...also I'll brush my teeth and remember to turn off the stars at night and put the hyena out." ERNEST HEMINGWAY

by pslieber on Feb 14, 2010 11:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I appreciate the point of the argument...

Hell I even agree with you, but the last line is WAY of base: “I don’t think you’d begrudge an educated, scholarly art critic their opinions on Picasso, so why should you begrudge me mine on BJ Upton?”

Part of the difficulty of the whole discussion is that sports (for better or worse) lack the processes of officialization that you’d find in, say, the art world. The closest things we have to “educated, scholarly art critics” (god help us) are the sportswriters. There are the sabermetrics people we all admire, but these guys don’t have HOF votes and are on the fringe of the mainstream.

As far as I know you’re a fan, not a sportswriter (correct me if I’m wrong). You are a fan, like myself, who appreciates baseball in ways most people find at turns intimidating and absurd. You have not done sophisticated graduate-level work on statistical analysis or anything of the sort, but know enough about the subject to appreciate the work of people who do or have done so. This makes you an informed fan, but certainly not someone who could claim to be, in any way, the equivalent of an “educated, scholarly art critic.” Those people go to school for years, they publish books, etc. We read their books, we base our arguments on our interpretations of them.

But does that make us as informed or as educated as they are? No.

by smithhasaname on Feb 15, 2010 11:19 AM EST reply actions  

Yeah, I debated for a while about that last line. I felt like I was putting on way too many airs.

You’re very right – I wouldn’t actually consider myself the baseball equivalent of a scholarly art critic. The metaphor isn’t entirely perfect, but I couldn’t quite come up with a simple way to describe where I feel I fall on the continuum. An educated fan, yes…that’s much closer to it. But again, I’d like to make the distinction between educated fans that go to lots of art shows and see lots of stuff, and those who see lots of stuff and do research on art history and contemporary criticism also.

I would say that I think the closest we have to those “critics” would be writers/researchers likes Dave Cameron, Joe Posnanski, and maybe a handful of others. I wouldn’t say that all sportswriters are scholarly, or at least not in the same way that art critics are. Do sportswriters have to be on the cutting edge of baseball analysis or have a detailed knowledge of baseball history? Some do, but not all. So that’s the only thing I’d really disagree with you about.

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Feb 15, 2010 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Thanks for the reply

Hope I didn’t come off as too much of a d!ck.

You point to a REALLY interesting problem here: do the “official” folks have to be on the cutting edge of analysis or have a detailed knowledge of their field? This applies to “art critics” and sportswriters alike, and I really like your use of the word “have” because you’re implying a certain kind of obligation. If you get a get a minute, please expand on what you mean by “Some do (as in, have to), but not all (do, as in not all have to).”

As someone who knows a thing or two about how things work on the academic side, the answer must be “yes” where critics are concerned. Sure, the academy houses plenty of irrelevant cranks, but unless they are engaged in their field and up to date on the latest developments no one takes them seriously.

For me at least, this is a source of unending befuddlement with sportswriting. The threshold for evidence in any given argument seems to be nil, and when it comes down to it there are a number of blogs with better content and better analysis than, say, anything ever produced by Richard Justice. As they are the socially recognized “experts” in their fields, one would think they’d be held to standards reserved for other experts, which isn’t the case.

Anyway, would love to hear your thoughts.

by smithhasaname on Feb 15, 2010 12:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Not at all - you brought up a great point and were respectful about it, so thanks.

I think the problem is this is sports we’re talking about and not art or music. People have always taken art and music seriously and been willing to accept that you can appreciate them on varying levels, but that’s not the same with sports. Sports journalists aren’t seen as or called “critics”, but “commentators”. There simply isn’t the same rigor and academic touch to sports that is attached with most art forms.

There are probably a number of reasons why things are this way, but I think the biggest thing holding it back now is simply that it’s never been there in the past. Sportscasters get points for being old-school and for being uber-testosteroney, while it’s not popular to be actually critical and to think.

As for what I meant when I said, “Do sportswriters have to be on the cutting edge of baseball analysis or have a detailed knowledge of baseball history? Some do, but not all,” I think it’d be more accurate to say, “Some are, but that doesn’t mean they’re required.” Mistype there, I guess. Some writers hold themselves to high standards, like Joe Pos, but they’re in the minority by far. Then again, I don’t claim to know exactly what it takes to be a sportswriter at a place like ESPN or MLB.com.

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Feb 15, 2010 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

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