The 2010 Bullpen: Best in Rays' Team History?

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2010 2:05 PM EST

Such a distinction would've went to the 2009 pen, but they went from a 3.9 FIP through late June to a 4.48 FIP overall. Thank you, September and October. Here are the best relief corps in team history, as ranked by FIP, note that the two extremes came within 12 months of each other. Fun stuff:

Year	FIP
2008	4.18
1998	4.36
2004	4.4
1999	4.45
2009	4.48
2000	4.49
2001	4.63
2003	4.68
2005	4.86
2006	4.87
2002	5.2
2007	5.31

Curious, I pulled CHONE's projected innings and FIP totals for the guaranteed relievers. From there I added 100 innings (so the bullpen would match last year's innings total) of replacement level pitching. Which is an easy way of seeing just how good the core is projected to be. Of course, this completely ignores leverage, but that's another discussion. Here's how that little experiment turned out:

CHONE	FIP	IP
Soriano	3.67	52
Howell	3.63	69
Balfour	3.66	67
Wheeler	4.4	60
Choate	4.42	47
Cormier	4.45	60
Repl	5	100
Total	4.23	455

So, basically the Rays need better than replacement level pitching for 100 innings and everyone to live up to their projections (or at least within the designated error bars) to have the best pen in team history. Hopefully I don't jinx them this year.

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Comments

And thank you for crushing my bullpen piece for the SBN team preview

Crushing might be a bit strong, but you’ve included some of the elements that I started putting together today.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 16, 2010 2:09 PM EST reply actions

With guys like Benoit and Sonnanstine in tow

as well as potential contributions from Jeremy Hellickson, along with Jake McGee and Alex Torres if they can sharpen up their command.

I’m still loving the Soriano move for Tampa.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 16, 2010 2:09 PM EST reply actions

Thinking Sonnanstine is Durham-bound.

Keeping him stretched out as the next in-line starter seems probable right now.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2010 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

I wouldn't look for Hellickson or Torres at all this season

and please no mo Sonny

by sternfan1 on Feb 16, 2010 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

I'd like to see Torres at some point in the BP.

I think he could be a great BP arm, and I’m not sold he’ll ever be a great SP.

by rglass44 on Feb 16, 2010 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

Only because at this point, they're loaded there, but i like his K/9 thus far

by sternfan1 on Feb 16, 2010 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

I think there's a chance

Hellickson has been flat out awesome in his time in the upper minors, and Torres was pretty impressive in AA.

They could presumably use one or both of them of them out of the pen like they did with Price in ‘08, and honestly, the Rays probably should turn to Hellickson before Sonny if one of the starters goes down, although that likely won’t be the case.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Feb 16, 2010 4:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Depends when the starter goes down

if it’s past the Super Two deadline, Hellickson is more likely

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Feb 16, 2010 4:20 PM EST up reply actions

"I’m still loving the Soriano move for Tampa."

Well, yeah. It was a bit of a no brainer, and provides great fortification for the Rays’ pen.

Not to mention that the move satisfied all the morons who were hellbent on saying the Rays needed a flamethrower as their closer.

by FloridaownsFSU on Feb 16, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

This is pretty exciting.

I remember going into the 2007 season and refusing to think about the bullpen. And when the season started, it was like watching your family pet die every time the starters got pulled.

on Twitter @BradleyWoodrum and @CubsStats23

by BWoodrum on Feb 16, 2010 2:18 PM EST reply actions

I was there for Peralta's game winning hR v Stokes which spoiled a great game by Shields

by sternfan1 on Feb 16, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

Shields should have like 20 more wins than he does.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

Does that include the times when the rest of the team forgets to show up?

Like all those 1-0 types games or his potential no-hitter, etc?

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Feb 16, 2010 3:59 PM EST up reply actions

Yes. Hellickstone has a piece on deserved wins in the annual.

It’s pretty glaring.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

What constitutes a "deserved win", anyway?

Is there a standard baseline, or is it somewhat subjective of Andy?

by FloridaownsFSU on Feb 16, 2010 4:09 PM EST up reply actions

If you care to expand your mind, put this on your tongue and wait 20 mins

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/6/27/927693/est-wins-using-fip-for-and-against

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/7/11/945801/estimated-wins-updated-through

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 16, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

This was the original basis using runs/IP, I think FIP is better

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/3/20/805184/pitcher-performance-with-n

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 16, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for the links.

by FloridaownsFSU on Feb 16, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

That's the worst blotter paper ever

http://citrusjuicing.com/ An SRQ focused-Tampa Bay area sports blog

by CubFanRaysaddict on Feb 16, 2010 7:40 PM EST up reply actions

6/5/2007

http://espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=270605114

I remember Deumig saying something stupid after this.

by FloridaownsFSU on Feb 16, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

The sad thing is that that 2007 team was boss, Shields and Kaz were sick, and we had a solid lineup of bats

No defense and relief pitching make Joe Maddon something something.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 16, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

Go Crazy?

by staplemaniac on Feb 16, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

Don't mind if I do.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 16, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions

Don't mind if I do!!!!

on Twitter @BradleyWoodrum and @CubsStats23

by BWoodrum on Feb 16, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions

OT: MLB.com gives their season preview

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100212&content_id=8067638&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb&partnerId=rss_mlb

alschu1 wrote:
Would love to see Gary Sheffield sign with Tampa. He is great at the plate with 2 strikes on him or with a guy on third with less than 2 outs, exactly what the Rays are looking to improve on this year. Sheff knows how to work the count. He’s patient. Has more walks than strikeouts in his career. And he hits homeruns. Has 509 to be exact. Plus Sheff loves the pressure of playing against the Yankees and Red Sox.

Makes sense

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 16, 2010 2:30 PM EST reply actions