Moments with Maddon

I would just tell Pena to swing away. You’ve to avoid the double play, but caught stealing with 1 out is not good. Pena has to make a basehit, so maybe hit and run is a good option too.

Cool post BTW!

with the shift on if los can just bunt it to the left side cc will get to 3rd and we will have first and third, one out, and zorilla ready to do some damage.

And the situation is clear and precise, although it might help to know who is up next. I assume Longoria, Zobrist or Burrell. And also who else is available in the Boston bullpen. And then who is left on the Rays’ bench.

But are there any other factors that might legitimately enter into a manager’s decision in addition to the ones identified? Factors relevant only on that day, for example, or that might occur to a manager based on his experience with these particular players.

I don’t have an answer in mind to my questions, including what other questions to ask, but I vaguely recall an incident a year or so again when Maddon went against the statistically proper decision. When queried, he said he liked the hitter’s swing plane against that particular pitcher’s offerings. I have no idea if he was right or if what he said even made sense (and the decision failed), but it seemed reasonable.

That said, to play along, I would probably simply hit away. I hate running out of innings, although my guess is Maddon would send Crawford, and I think the stats last year showed that the Rays’ running game was a net plus offensively. The most likely outcome is simply 2 outs with Crawford on 1b but I think it is more likely that the Rays get 2 runs there or that Pena walks or Ks than that Pena hits into a DP. Maybe the next matchup is more positive for the Rays, or if pitchers are changed perhaps it makes the steal a better gamble during the next AB.

But I hope you will continue to stress this point:

“I don’t want this series to become an excuse to bash on Maddon.”

I think that is a crucial point and one easily forgotten when fans begin to second guess managers on a case by case basis. In my view, the silliest way to evaluate a manager is by listing all the supposed “tactical” errors he makes. There are occasional egregious errors of judgment, although even the worst of those are usually not as irrational as fans make them out to be, but even en masse they have little to do with whether a manager is doing a good job for too many reasons to begin listing here again.

If he gets the bunt down and past the pitcher he reaches base successfully. Dragging a bunt reduces his chances of successful placement and the “surprise” factor is greatly reduced by his lack of speed anyway.

not sure how well Oki holds guys on but CC probably has about a 65% chance of being safe at 2b (or beyond). Pena’s odds of getting CC to second with only 1 out against Oki seem to me to be less then that. And CC would score on almost any base hit from 2nd base.

how do you decide what in a play or set of plays is attributable to a manager and what isn’t? is there a standard set of assumptions? I mean, obviously, we don’t know all the information that a manager does when making a call, but are we assuming the call made is all attributable to the manager and that the success or failure of execution is attributable to the player? I understand that statistically there are better and worse plays in certain situations (or more or less efficient plays, whatever), but how do we separate the players attributes from the managers calls? or do we?

A “close and late” situation like this is when an elite base stealer is the most valuable. Use the talents you’ve got to try and win the game.

Also I disagree with bunting, why take the bat out of Pena’s hands? If you’re down by one then it makes more sense to play for the tie, but assuming you trust your bullpen, which this year we hopefully can, give him the chance to put the game out of reach. If CC steals successfully he will score on any hit, and if Los goes for extra bases you’ve given yourself the change to really put the game out of reach. Los is still a good hitter vs LHP, 116wRC+ in 2009 and 107 career.

It’s tough b/c Okajima’s a lefty (and lefties are harder to steal on), but Crawford is one of those very few players who can steal a base even if everyone in the ballpark knows he’s about to go. Once he’s done that, let Carlos swing away.

Bunting presents too much risk that Carlos will be thrown out at first, a risk that’s inappropriate (a) because he’s a very good hitter, and (b) because playing for one run against the Red Sox (a good hitting team) when they still have six more outs left at the plate is too likely to backfire. Also, there’s the risk that Carlos fouls off bunt attempts so that he gets two strikes and can’t do it anymore, and then he’s almost a guaranteed strikeout. OTOH, just letting Carlos swing away at first presents too much risk of a double play, due to the right-side shift.

Sending CC is likely to succeed. Then you’d get Okajima to pitch more carefully to Pena, which could result in a walk since Pena has good plate discipline. Bottom line, I’d feel the need to get up 4-2 at that point in the game, not 3-2. I think it’s only in the true one-run situations that things like sacrificing and hit & running are appropriate.

Keep in mind you have about 10 seconds to make this decision and there are about a hundred other things going on at the same time.

Carl has said in the past that Maddon pretty much lets him steal bases on his own……so I would definitely let Carl go if he saw the chance..and let Pena swing away , Although..Pena did put down a few nice bunts against the shift last year..guess it would depend on how hot Pena was swinging the bat that day.