Moments with Maddon, Pt. 2

Wouldn’t be Joyce on first and Kapler on the bunch?

depending on the line-up (JB 9/BJ 1) or (JB 1/CC 2). You are going to have 2 good opportunities with guys who put the ball in play in either Bartlett/Upton (assuming his improvement for this year which i see happening) or Bartlett/Crawford. I would rather have those guys with 1 out and decent speed at 2nd than a guy off the bench 0 outs and a guy on first.

While I wouldn’t always go by the book, the 7th inning is too early to consider a sac bunt. It’s a tie game and you have to assume you’ll have a better chance or may need to reconsider this option later in the game. Getting 4 runs on Burnett doesn’t show that scoring in this game is necessarily at a premium.

Pinch-hitting is almost always the gut reaction with Navarro at the plate in a situation like this. Since the mound and the bullpen is loaded with Righties, let’s look at all of the players 3-year splits vs. Righties:

Navi: .245/.301/.337
Shoppach: .229/.319/.420
Aybar: .246/.310/.378

Of the players with track records, none of the alternatives is a legitimately better option then Navi. Statistically both are better, but the difference between the three doesn’t allow me to justify the fact that both of these players are better options against Lefties. Joyce doesn’t have enough major league ABs at this time to determine how he is against major-league righties, but he’s left-handed, and his minor-league history indicates that he’s a capable stick against Righties. With Kapler still in the game and already on base however, I don’t see how doing a double-switch now makes much sense.

I think that this senario ultimately boils down to 2 choices: Do you pinch hit Navi for Joyce and do a double-switch at the top of the inning replacing Kapler with Shoppach, or do you send Kapler on a hit-and-run play and try to get Navi to make contact. My guess is the book would say that a double-switch is the right choice. I actually voted for hit-and-run, but the more I thought about it, the more I don’t like my selection. Navi’s a legit double-play candidate, and he struggles making contact. Kapler’s not a good base stealer, but he still has enough speed against this particular platoon to have a chance against a botched hit-and-run play in the senario that Navi whiffs on a pitch (seeing how Navi sucks at making contact and will swing at trash, this is very much possible).

Ultimately, in a lineup configuration where you have 2 holes against Righties back-to-back (Kapler and Navi) and no players with a proven capability to hit major-league right-handed pitching on your bench, I just don’t see much benefit in a double-switch, I’d rather just wait for Kapler to come back around and swap in Joyce right there instead of potentially burning 2 players in one move.

And if they pull Burnett for one of the righties, then pull Joyce for Shoppach (who would be replacing Navarro behind the plate after the inning anyway).

Baseball consultant Tom Tango, now in the employ of the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays, went through historical pinch-hitting situations in his book (appropriately titled "The Book") and found that, even after accounting for the average pinch-hitter being of lesser ability and facing tougher pitchers in more important situations, pinch-hitters performed at a level roughly 10 percent lower than expected. That’s huge; a 10 percent penalty turns a .300 hitter into a .270 one. That reduction in performance would turn Evan Longoria into Skip Schumaker.

http://www.fangraphs.com/bonus/index.php/hot-stove-u-the-perils-of-pinch-hitting

I’d just start a brawl and throw a bat at Burnett.

It’s not so easy now, is it?

Given Navi’s ridiculous contact ability, but his apparent penchant for the GIDP, I feel this would be the best way of still allowing Navi to put that .650 OPS to work while avoiding the inherent risk of getting 2 outs. Navi wouldn’t miss contact with a pitch unless its a pitch that Posada can’t handle well, so I think regardless you end up with Kapler on 2B. Navi will make contact with a fastball in the zone, and I think a fastball out of the zone or a curveball would result in a steal significantly more often than not.

…this is an awesome site feature. Very clever, a LOT of fun!

With a lineup as potent as the Yanks, it’s hard to justify playing for 1 run when they still have 6 more outs.