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Thoughts On Dana Eveland And The Final Rays Bullpen Spot

Continuing off the post R.J. made about the final bullpen spot, the newly designated for assignment, Dana Eveland is a name that seems interesting to me. Of course, I say this about nearly every pitcher that is either DFA or released, but Eveland intrigues me nonetheless.

Eveland, newly 26-years-old, is a left-handed pitcher who has spent time with the Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks andmost recently the Oakland A's. Nearly splitting his appearances equally between starting and relief, Eveland has not had muchmajor league success. However, in the right role I think he can be a decent member of the bullpen especially in a Lance Cormier fashion.

Star-divide

Looking at Eveland's statistics, I get the same vibes I did when I pegged Cormier as a bullpen bargain in the winter of 2008. As mentioned he has spent his career between starting and relieving much like Cormier did before making a permanentswitch to relief. In his 83 appearances (44 starts), Eveland has a career ERA of 5.54, but his FIP is over a run lower at 4.36.Even his xFIP is nearly a full run lower than his ERA at 4.65. Of course an FIP of 4.36 isn't much to get excited over, but we're talking about the sixth man in the bullpen.

Eveland's flaws are pretty transparent. He wasn't blessed with a golden arm and lives around the 90 mph mark. He throws a slider, change-up and curve ball as well. In 2009, he added a cutter into the mix. With his average stuff, it is Not surprising that he doesn't miss many bats. His K/9 is around 6.5 career, but contact rate is over 80%. His biggest bug-a-boo comes in the form of walks. While striking out less than seven batters per nine innings, he's walking nearly five. That said, there are some aspects of his game that I find appealing especially as a bullpen arm.

Ground balls. Eveland gets them in bunches. For his career he is a 50.1% ground ball pitcher while giving up less than 28% fly balls. With that addition of the cutter, his GB% was a career high 56.5% last season. Less fly balls equal less home run opportunities and his HR/9 is a stellar 0.65 career wise.

Despite, the heavy ground pounding effort, Eveland still has that ERA in the 5.50 range. We can chalk this up to some severe bad luck in the BABIP category. For his career his BABIP is .347. In 44 innings during the 2009 season, his BABIP was a ridiculous .393. I'm pretty amazed that his BABIP is nearly .350 given the 276 innings under his belt.

In his only full season in relief, he tossed 31 innings over 27 games for the Milwaukee Brewers. His FIP for that season was 4.19. Lance Cormier had a 4.18 FIP last season. Of course, Eveland's ERA that year was 5.97 thanks to a .364 BABIP; maybe he's just in a relationship with bad karma.

Really when it all comes down to it, Eveland is probably as useful as a Dale Thayer or a Winston Abreu in the grand scheme of things. However, he is younger than both and comes cheap. I'm not saying he is worthy of a roster spot right now, but he is definitely worth a non-roster invite (if we ever hand out any). It would only create even more competition during the spring and possibly even more depth to an already deep Durham bullpen.

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Eveland needs to get his walks in check to have big league success

Contact pitchers can do well in front of the Rays’ defense, but hits will occur. He obviously has some hittability issues with a career 22.2% LD%. For reference Sonny’s career LD% is just 16.4%, and he has a career BABIP of .323. Walks and hard hit balls are an unhealthy combo. Eveland’s 09 had bad BABIP luck, but I’m not sure how much of an anomaly his career # is.

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by FreeZorilla on Feb 3, 2010 7:17 AM EST reply actions  

If he didn't walk so many I'd be fine with him

Lefties and righties have both OPSed over .800 vs him.

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by FreeZorilla on Feb 3, 2010 8:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Cormier had awful splits on both accounts

Shifting roles back and forth probably hasn’t helped

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by Tommy Rancel on Feb 3, 2010 8:35 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Cormier had awful splits on both accounts

Shifting roles back and forth probably hasn’t helped

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by Tommy Rancel on Feb 3, 2010 8:35 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I would forget all of these BS arms and bring up Jeremy Hellickson and the him and Davis compete for the # 5 spot and put the other in the Pen at a very low cost.. Now the pen becomes not just OK but great.

by CharlieRay on Feb 3, 2010 7:57 AM EST reply actions  

Hellickson's clock will be very important

And he really has minimal AAA experience despite a good deal of success. If low cost is the objective, there are better alternatives from a strategy standpoint in house for the role.

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by FreeZorilla on Feb 3, 2010 8:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Winning?

If Hellickson is rolling, but the starters are healthy and performing, I see no reason not to put him in the pen if it seems it would positively impact the team’s chances of success, particularly if a later inning role needs filling. Do you not remember 2008 and a pitcher named David Price? Or what Phil Hughes brought to NY in 2009?

Plus, starting his clock early isn’t likely to be a factor. The Rays would likely want to keep his IP load up a bit, so 2 months of solid starting performance in AAA should mean 60-75 IP while pushing back service time to where his arb clock is the same regardless of starting in the bigs June 1, 2010 or April 1, 2011. He could likely still log around 120+ IP exclusive of playoff innings.

Of course, this is all based on Hellickson being a difference maker this season.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Feb 5, 2010 12:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Yes but in the Rays own words" This is the best shot this year to win a World Series." This could help bring it home

by CharlieRay on Feb 3, 2010 8:16 AM EST reply actions  

Dana is just another reject with a remote posability of a so so year and no better. We have dumped better pitchers over the last two years than him. I never think LOW cost, that’s Rays managment’s job. Jeremy Hellickson is the best man for the job. All that is left are all the leftover rejects from all the teams and we have Hellickson and all it will cost us is 1 year on the clock

by CharlieRay on Feb 3, 2010 8:31 AM EST reply actions  

It will cost more than one year

with how the Rays have decided to control innings on their young pitchers. If Hellickson is relegated to bullpen duty then he will have less innings pitched than if he was starting in AAA. Once he was thrust into the rotation, he would be limited on how many innings he could pitch that year and the next years. So even if he started 2011 in the rotation after pitching 2010 from the bullpen, he wouldn’t last the whole season and would be shutdown early. Then 2012 would probably be more of the same with him going a little longer. Hellickson should be kept in the starting role and get his innings count up so when he is called upon he will last longer.

by ronnydobbs on Feb 3, 2010 8:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Hellickson as the 4th best option in the pen

Is not worth wasting a year of development as a starter plus a year of service.

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by Tommy Rancel on Feb 3, 2010 8:37 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

You could be right but I can’t see the guy Dana as any help other the eating up spring training time. Winston Abreu would be a better option

by CharlieRay on Feb 3, 2010 8:45 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think he'll be the next J.P. Howell

But his skillset (groundballs) would seem to be suited for the Rays defense. All I’m advocating is taking a flier on him. If it works, great. If not, then you release him or send him to the minors. I wouldn’t give him anything more than a minor league deal and an invite to Port Charlotte.

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by Tommy Rancel on Feb 3, 2010 9:04 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I agree

There’s no harm in that, and you never know when or if a pitcher will figure things out.

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by FreeZorilla on Feb 3, 2010 9:12 AM EST up reply actions  

co-sign.

Nobody saw Balfour or Howell breaking out before they did. Just trying to take another low-risk move to possibly strike gold.

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by Tommy Rancel on Feb 3, 2010 9:18 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I just don't get it, thousands of guys have rocked AAA, but couldn't break the Majors

I don’t see anyone saying that Justin Ruggiano should be playing anytime soon, despite a roughly .900 OPS in 2007 & 08 at AAA.

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by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 3, 2010 9:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Well OF is a position of strength

Ruggs has a pretty big hole in his swing limiting his on-base skills.

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by FreeZorilla on Feb 3, 2010 9:51 AM EST up reply actions  

HRs in 44 innings aren't going to scare me away

Particularly when the guy has dominated AAA. Ruggs has been above average in Durham at the plate, but the whole exists there. Not the case al all with Winston’s HRs. allowed.

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by FreeZorilla on Feb 3, 2010 10:11 AM EST up reply actions  

So did Chris Richard

Hurray our 1B woes post-Pena are solved!

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by FreeZorilla on Feb 3, 2010 10:19 AM EST up reply actions  

and Dan Johnson

Both without the 30+% Ks and single digit BB%

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by FreeZorilla on Feb 3, 2010 10:21 AM EST up reply actions  

I initially thought it might have been a case of batters laying off his slider and sitting fastball,

but after looking at the data, it looks like it’s the other way around. He tries to bore in on righties with his fastball and ends up missing the rulebook strikezone on quite a few pitches. As we know, umps tend to give that pitch inside against righties, but he’s missing by some pretty large amounts. He then throws the slider low and away to righties (back foot on lefties), but it looks like he leaves it up sometimes. In fact, the two homers hit off of him last year were on what appear to be hanging sliders, right in the wheelhouse. Check it:


The dingers are represented by the red squares. Again, this is the rulebook strikezone, which tends to give more lateral leeway, but he looks like a guy that is afraid to pound the zone. Fastballs for balls and hanging sliders up in the zone are a recipe for disaster. Hopefully he can work on those two things and become a usable arm at the ML level.

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by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 3, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions  

My sign could be

CHP now patrols the Trop

by CharlieRay on Feb 3, 2010 9:46 AM EST reply actions  

I'm sorry to bring this to the table so late, but here's some pitch f.x stuff for Eveland in 2009

It’s weird, but for a lefty it looks like he’s actually better against righties. His 2-seamer to righties is his best pitch and it’s not surprising that his change is next by Whiff% since they have similar movement. He may feature a slight reverse platoon split based on not having a high velocity fastball, similar to JP Howell.

He’s faced 946 righties in his career that have produced a triple-slash of 0.296/0.386/0.416/0.802. You can really see the effect of his walks in that high OBP as he walks about 12% of batters. It does look like the reverse platoon split is a career long thing, as against lefties he has this line 0.310/0.385/0.447/0.832 with a BB% of 10%. So he walks less lefties, but due to a higher SLG, he actually looks to be better versus righties. (Keep in mind that he has only faced 326 lefties, which is certainly not large enough to claim this is all certain) He strikes out lefties at about a 19% clip, while only getting 14% of righties to siddown. This doesn’t seem to jive with the above whiff numbers, but that is such a small sample against lefties, I’m not too surprised. Lastly, he has a career BAbip of 0.337 vs. righties and 0.377 vs. lefties. He has certainly been unlucky, but if Eveland was a normal-armed person, he would have been bagging groceries years ago. It doesn’t look like Dana would be any sort of an upgrade over organizational fodder at this point, which runs counter to my initial idea that he could be a good fit as a junk-balling lefty. I would be firmly opposed to picking him up.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 3, 2010 12:08 PM EST reply actions  

22-1


Wes Johnson is a player and he crushes a lot

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 3, 2010 12:35 PM EST reply actions  

Rose hadn't just been taken out a minute before that

I doubt you saw it be Big Wes went up for an oop and the defender cut his legs out from under him, flipping him hard onto his hip and shoulder. Shit almost got broke, but then he did that dunk and all was right in the world.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 3, 2010 12:46 PM EST up reply actions  

How's U of Tampa's basketball team this year?

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 3, 2010 12:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know or care

I picked up the school paper once and saw a pic of a white boy dunking. I laughed and that is my experience with the Tampa B ball team.

by SRQman on Feb 3, 2010 12:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I bet if they were leading their division your bandwagon ass would be all over them.

Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 3, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Nope

Our soccer team was in semi final on our field last year I was shooting hoops

by SRQman on Feb 3, 2010 1:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

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